Comfy

First one was a hope and the other more or less a promise. Nothing wrong with that.

#1 STUNNA

Where’s my AirPower at?

Costco

I’m guessing I can file this under “hope” and that there’s nothing wrong with this, right?

Or even better, was this a prediction?


How about this gem, from 2015?


Where’s my “Full Self Driving” at?

SSFTSX

i wouldnt tow or offroad with Model Y/X and they will eat tires much sooner than traditional vehicles.

Comfy

This just shows how ignorant you are with regards to what transpired on Battery day.
listen to this video of Sandy Munro to break it down for you. He actually made a mock up battery and battery pack to demonstrate what is happening.
According to him, the increased volume of battery by nearly 5 times could theoretically increase the battery capacity of Model 3/Y from 75kwh to 130kwh while keeping the same volume and reducing weight. Now since they apparently reduced the cost of manufacturing them as well, you don’t need to be a rocket scientist to see what can potentially happen.

Jeez, still can’t believe how many detractors are there for Tesla who simply don’t get it.
well, they will eventually. .

#1 STUNNA

It really is the iPhone all over again, all the people that were hating on iPhones when they first came out have one now or an Android clone. Within 5-10 years they'll finally get it when Tesla releases the 25k range smaller model with at least 300mi range and low 4 sec 0-60. Or maybe when the EV drivetrain becomes cheaper to produce than ICE then Tesla can improve the quality of the interior to match or surpass others in their price bracket and still sell them for less.

Personally I didn't like the OG iphone when it first came out, too many missing features, no 3G, MMS, weird headphone jack, etc. But when they launched the App Store and the iPhone 3G I was interested, then when I saw the app BeatMaker which is a drum machine app running on a phone that's when I went right to the Apple Store and bought a 3G. Yeah sure it was missing some features then but they all got added over time with free updates much like Tesla has done and now surpassed the capabilities of their ICE competitors with free updates like Dog Mode, Camp Mode, Sentry Mode, Video Games, Netflix YouTube, acceleration and range increases all using OTA updates.

#1 STUNNA

You missed these

In 2014 when they only produced 35k vehicles they projected that they'd produce 500k vehicles, and 35GWh of batteries in 2020, so far they're on target for 500k vehicles and 38GWh even with a global pandemic and shutting their factories down for weeks.






You mean this?



Tesla is doing things that no one else has ever done before and sometimes it takes longer than they expect but they still get it done.

Why don't get of your ass and go make me that AirPower that Phil Schiller promised me

BurnabyTSX

I'm sorry, but care to point out where SamDoe was wrong? There were no chemical or electronic breakthroughs with the new batteries; since they are the same composition; just 5x bigger, thus 5x more energy.

While it is definitely nice that the bigger individual batteries will allow for a more efficient battery pack -- plus Sandy Munro's speculation that Tesla will follow the Jaguar's cooling structure (oh the irony); in the end, we're still dealing with the same battery and charging system. There was no new revolutionary way to charge the batteries faster; which I still maintain, is the biggest problem with pure EVs. Sticking a 130 kWh battery in a Model 3 is just a dick-measuring contest. It doesn't solve anything.

Comfy

5x bigger battery is only for a single cell. Cars don't work on a single battery cell. So the 5x bigger analogy doesn't apply there. As you said, Sam missed the "kwh/volume" and "kwh/kg" efficiency of the battery pack, which is what really counts in car (in our current discussion). What Tesla has shown is that even with today's tech / battery chemistry there are huge gains to be made by streamlining the manufacturing technology (which other OEMs do not seem to get). The 75kwh to 130 kwh may seem like a dick measuring contest to you, but if they can manufacture it at lower cost, I see only benefits there. I'm not saying that Tesla is planning to build it, but a Model 3/ Y with more than 500 mile range (more than 10 hours driving time) would have been an awesome addition and there are plenty of people who will want it even with current charging infrastructure (include me) .

I know they didn't reveal any changes in battery chemistry, which is the next frontier to address, and I'm sure Tesla is already on it. There are more battery days to come and they will announce them when it's ready in the foreseeable future. People were underwhelmed only because the "million mile battery" didn't materialize, that doesn't mean Tesla isn't working on it.
At least now you guys agree that Tesla is pulling ahead from the entire industry in battery technology and efficiency and as Elon mentioned on battery day, they are going to hit it running like a packed highway going at full speed. I'm sorry guys, there's no catching up to Tesla now.

Comfy

More analysis. Total EV domination ...

#1 STUNNA

Part of me wants to debunk every uninformed claim that you made, but the other part doesn't want to waste a lot of my time debunking claims that were made with zero fucking evidence. Instead of you coming in here spending a minute asking questions which are really statements in the form of a question, common Fox News tactic, and expecting me to take an hour out of my day to debunk all of them just for you to make another round of uninformed statements, why don't you spend the hour yourself to look them up and if you can't find an answer then come in here and show me what you found and I'll help you figure out the rest. In the meantime claims made without evidence can be dismissed without evidence.

I've been on this forum for the last decade talking about climate change, renewable energy, EVs, and energy efficiency I've researched and debated this shit for thousands of hours so pardon me if I get tired of constantly debunking uninformed statements that are provided with zero evidence. I can't put the hours into it anymore, blame SSFTSX and Silver for my jaded attitude.
​​​​​​​

Costco

Continuing to move the goalposts, classic SSFTSX Stunna! If you believe in Tesla so much, after all these years why don't you own one? Even SSFTSX has an Acura.

Didn't you bring up how so many people are just dying to work for Tesla? You're right, in an almost literal sense. In a time where companies are increasing pay and accommodations for WFH employees, imagine getting your pay slashed, plus getting fired for wanting to stay home for your own safety.
https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/08/busin...rus/index.html
https://www.washingtonpost.com/techn...plant-firings/

The "Full Self Driving" feature has been struck down in Germany; rightfully so, as it requires human intervention. But don't let that stop ol' Elon for advertising it as such where he can.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/michael.../#4ef5326ec7fb

Again with the Airpower, in a Tesla discussion thread?

Comfy

In other news, apparently Tesla is looking to purchase a stock in LG chem. Of it is still speculation at present, but just wondering if there’s some truth in this.

https://www.koreatimes.co.kr/www/tec...29_296818.html

SamDoe1

Please do take the time because those claims are all well founded and based in science and fact.

SamDoe1

I did? I specifically mentioned that in my post. The only reason that the kW/L and kW/kg is changing is because the packaging of the cell is changing. The insides are EXACTLY THE SAME.

Also, none of what you said shows I was wrong. If I have a one gallon tank gas tank and the come out with a five gallon tank, can I hold a gas tank day and have all my sheepish followers celebrate that I made everything better? Because that's basically what they did. After all, making one 5gal tank is cheaper and lighter than making five 1gal tanks right?

Everything else you wrote is 1000% speculation and propaganda.

oonowindoo

No one is begging you to debunk anything.. if you dont want to ... Dont...
You can talk about about climate change, EV and whatever you want.. but licking Tesla's butthole for breakfast everyday is just that.. ..

Posting videos of claiming modern cars overheating in Death Valley is based on facts and science and research? GTFO

Except for the few Trump Supporters here, most of us here believe in Climate Change and Renewable energy.
But that does not mean we think Tesla is the solution and Elon is the savior of the world All other EVs are shit except for Tesla and ICE will be dead in less than 5 years type of shit...

It is one thing to be optimistic and it is another to be delusional.

civicdrivr

iTrader: (9)

It's a slow work day...

There are 32k level 2 DC charging stations with 99k charging outlets in the US SOURCE. The majority of those stations (27k stations / 70k outlets) have J1772 outlets. That's an average of three outlets per location. They can charge your Tesla at speeds of up to 19.2kw SOURCE which, at 240V, works out to around 50 miles per hour of charge.

If you're looking for fast charging, there are 3910 stations with 8,322 outlets. Most of those stations are along large interstate corridors, which is good! But that also means those stations are going to be frequently used. And in other areas, they just don't exist at all (that's sourced from link #1, just look at the map).

Admittedly there is no real way to provide evidence for this, other than pointing you to the map of charging stations, which I did above. But in case you ignored the link, here's some screenshots:



These areas shouldn't even need any mark ups for you:





This is opinion, which was in response to this:

But while we're on the topic of providing evidence, please state your sources for the items in bold.

This was a statement to get you to open your eyes to see the entire supply chain. Piedmont Lithium, a mining company Tesla signed a deal with recently, uses ICE powered vehicles in their operations. They're big, they're noisy, and they use a lot of diesel - which seems to be everything you don't like.

Sarcasm. DEFINITION

SOURCE

One source stated 1.1m, but the source above states 1.4m. So let's go with that one.

273,602,100 registered vehicles as of the latest FHWA DOT report (March 2018) SOURCE

Legit question - do you think the current grid can support 270 million electric vehicles?

I'm not an electrical engineer. I don't work with power anymore. But I do know how frail the infrastructure is in the US, and how the current grid cannot support that much strain. It needs an overhaul, and I hope it happens so we can shift to EVs. But I don't see it in the next decade.

This is opinion, but one I still stand by.

Which is the exact reason why I've posing these questions. As I stated above, you seem like a smart guy and I value your thoughts on climate change and renewable energy (and we share many of the same views there). I'm just a bit confused by your - for lack of a better descriptor - rabid infatuation and defensiveness on any topic related to Tesla.

So please, point out where I'm incorrect, or point me to your sources so I can learn because all of the sources I've been finding don't seem to indicate that we can be 100% electric.

oonowindoo

Why bother? We all drive everyday and we can all see how many chargers are available.

When we have just as many charger outlets as gas pumps and a full charge can be obtained within a reasonable time... <20 mins, then i will believe the day is here...

Until then, EV is only for the few, but not the mass. I dont think you need science to tell you that...
In case if i needed to go somewhere far or forgot to charge at home, I aint got the time to go out of my way to find chargers, only to find out that there is a 2 hour line before i can even start my 1 hour charging time...
Life is too short to wait for your car to charge

#1 STUNNA

Cell phones will never take off because there's vast swaths of the country that don't have coverage, the cellular outage maps kinda line up with the EV charger map.



I wonder how it compares to US population? This is kinda like Trump logic

#1 STUNNA

That "youtube video" actually debunks those maps, they actually travel across North Dakota along the many 250kw charging stations that opened this year. Get new maps bruh. On average a new Tesla super charging station is opened almost everyday in the US. There's been 23 new supercharging stations opened in the US in the last 30 days, the vast majority are the high speed 250kw chargers.

https://supercharge.info/changes

If your maps were accurate (they're not) this video would've been impossible, it wasn't





They also travelled through Louisiana through that area which your old map says doesn't have chargers, they had no issue charging at actual available chargers

oonowindoo

Are you seriously comparing cellphone towers with Charging stations?

Everyone wanted the convenience of cellphone since finding a pay phone when you get a page on your pager was not the most practical thing to do. Cellphone was always desirable, it was just too expensive and too bulky for the mass.
But We dont necessarily need EV... our current car can get us from a point A to point B just fine. so where is the motivation for the mass to switch?

Climate changes, renewable energies and saving $$ dont apply to everyone as the convenience of a cellphone does....
Also a cellphone tower can cover a large area, where a charge outlet can only be used by 1 car for an hour or 2... NOT THE SAME

Trying too hard man...

oonowindoo

Can a Tesla be driven across country? Yah sure.
I can also walk across country.....or bike across country... or drive a car without worrying about where the next charging station is.

Instead of focusing where you wanna go, you need to worry about where the next charging station is.... i would not want a trip like that...

civicdrivr

iTrader: (9)

If you're saying your source is more accurate than the US Dept of Energy (which is entirely possible), then the US Dept of Energy is overstating the amount of fast chargers available throughout the US. Your source lists 1,039. The USDoE lists around 4k.

​​Thank you for the correction, but you're still dodging my question - do you think the US grid can support 270 million electric vehicles?

Comfy

Man, your maps are so outdated, or did you purposefully use an old map to prove your point?
Why don't you take a look at Tesla website for available superchargers, both current and "coming soon" which comprehensively disproves your point.
Those fighting against EVs and Teslas are fighting a losing battle. It'l be fun to watch though.

civicdrivr

iTrader: (9)

Thanks #2 Stunna.

I don't recall fighting against EVs. I'm just looking for information that supports the claim that mass adoption is a "few" years away.

I look forward to owning an EV someday.

#1 STUNNA

Absolutely, the grid when there are 270 million EVs on the road will definitely handle it. Here’s something you haven’t thought about, where and when does over 90% of all EV charging happen? At home, and at night when everyone is sleeping just like a cell phone. Guess when energy usage is at it’s lowest, and many energy companies lower electricity prices to encourage you to use electricity? At night when everyone is sleeping. Energy companies would love to have millions of EVs charging in the middle of the night it’s a perfect combination.








Then take into account all of the utility and residential battery storage and they will more than meet the demand.

Right now today my friend has 2 Tesla’s in his garage, Tesla solar panels on his roof and a Tesla Powerwall. His solar panels power the majority of his house needs and his powerwall, when he comes home from work he plugs in and his car is charged from the energy stored in his powerwall, not from the grid. He charges at home and doesn’t need to visit a supercharger to fill up, he leaves his house everyday with a full battery. That is the future, Superchargers won’t be used for regular charging, a concept many on here struggle to understand, many think that there should be as many super charger stations as gas pumps and that’s just not needed in reality when almost all charging happens at home.

#1 STUNNA

Also if autonomy takes off maybe it becomes cheaper and convenient enough for many to ride in an autonomous Tesla instead of buying a car, it should be much cheaper than an Uber. Many Zoomers haven’t even bothered to get their driver’s license, my niece included, she’s 21 w/ a kid and gets around without a car and our public transportation sucks here. I know that seems crazy to many of us on here but the automotive world is becoming electric and autonomous.

#1 STUNNA

bad take, bro

Comfy

LOL....Exactly.... There are people still faulting Tesla for using ICE pick ups and Semis for their service, factory operation, and maintenance purposes. They conveniently forget that there isn't anything else available in EV sector. Even Tesla's own comparable vehicles are 1-2 years away (Model X is not comparable to a pick up truck).

civicdrivr

iTrader: (9)

Can you post the source to those graphs? I'd like to dig a bit more into that data.

Regarding use cases like your friend - that works for people that drive from home to an office, or the store, or to drop the kids off at school, or any other around-town commute. The segment that (IMO) needs to be focused on is the trucking industry. There are over 3.5 million class 8 trucks in this country, and they drive an average of 63,000 miles a year, each using 11,818 gallons of fuel (again, on average) (this is per the FHWA). The only vehicles that use more fuel are buses and garbage trucks, but they typically run their route and park for the night, where your line of thought would still apply.

The trucking industry, however, doesn't adhere to that same ideology. They average around 600 miles a day, sometimes more. The Tesla Semi falls short of that (500 miles), but I wouldn't be surprised to see some gains throughout development. However, it still has a ways to go to match the range of a typical class 8 truck, which is around 1200 miles. That 1200 mile range is important, as teams rely on that so they can swap on and off to keep freight moving. If they need to stop to recharge every 5-600 miles (or even more often in cold weather), that costs time, and time is money. I'm sure the answer is "automate it all and run relays", but that would put many truckers on unemployment and potentially harm the industry as a whole since only large freight companies can afford the quantity of trucks needed at the price point that Tesla is asking (which is around $60k more than the typical diesel class 8 truck). And I get it, they need to adapt to the changing times, but it's still needs to be a concern.

For the average American that travels 15-20 miles each way for work and have outlets available to them, EVs are a no-brainer. For others that make a living on the road, it's a harder sell.

Costco

I can't speak for the entire country, but I have very little faith in California being able to bear their share.

https://www.businessinsider.com/pge-...s-2019-10?op=1

There have been dozens of clusters of wildfires in the state this year. Well, basically every year. In 2020 we had power conservation advisories during the dead of summer, accompanied by two separate blackouts during mid 80-90+ degree weather. The power company in my area (PG&E) has utterly shit the bed in so many different ways over the past several years. Again, very little trust.

The mandate (new ICE-powered vehicles no longer able to be sold in 2035) is stupid, but I understand why it was enacted. It's to jumpstart the infrastructure improvements. They could always push the deadline back, and I think they will, or at least are going to have to as 2035 draws nearer.

Despite the overall commitment to renewables at my work, there weren't enough EV chargers available. Yes, this is promising depending on how you look at it; however, charging at work is the best option for those who don't have garages/access to chargers at home. With housing prices and the lack of high-density housing the way it is here, this is a very real issue. Purely anecdotal, but from what I have noticed only the new/higher end apartment complexes, and/or those with an attached shopping center have charging stations. Even then, it's not in your designated parking spots.

Stunna is not wrong in that EVs will often be charged at night but it would be incorrect to assume there would not be a drastic increase in demand during peak hours.

Costco

For disclosure, I have considered the following: solar panels, an EV as a daily driver, and investing in Tesla.

Of all the aforementioned, I decided to take a small position in Tesla. Their growth, different sources of revenue, and market cap make them hard to ignore. I am planning to go long, but don't believe in them enough to risk anything major, nor would I ever go all in.

As far as solar (Solar City), they suck. I have a friend who had issues getting repairs done. He regrets going with SC over a different provider. I did some research to see if his problems were a fluke, and they aren't.

The build quality and logistics issues on their vehicles continue year after year, despite Musk, Comfy, and Stunna's refusal to acknowledge them. I admire the unique approach, even if there are growing pains. These problems are also why the latter two still don't own any Teslas, given how familiar they are with the brand.

Comfy

Mostly agree with your statements. I too have a house, solar roof and EVs on my radar. But having your favorite car on the market doesn’t mean that we all should/ would buy it immediately. We all have priorities in life and a new car probably comes somewhere in the middle to bottom (otherwise I would have gotten an MDX long time ago). Part of the reason being, a car is a depreciating asset (even an EV for the most part).
But I’m not going to sugarcoat it in anyway and accept that Tesla cars are still a work in progress in terms of build quality. I would like the promised “world class paint job”, single piece Front / rear underbody with the architectural improvements with battery integration in frame (with the associated weight lowering and other savings). To that extent, waiting for Giga Texas to be operational makes most sense to me (assuming that they will incorporate these improvements in the new factory). Tell me who wouldn’t want the most bang for your buck if you are spending $50K.
For now, I’m perfectly happy with my RDX.

SamDoe1

So...why, pray tell, do you campaign so fucking hard that Tesla is a slightly distilled version of god?

EV's have inherent disadvantages to a normal gas car, there's really no argument against that. They do have their advantages and, for the average every day driver, they are just fine. But for people who want to get off the main highway and don't want to stop at camp sites/RV parks, it probably isn't the best bet. The map of superchargers you posted has a huge swath of land that have no charging stations, that huge swath of land is exactly where I want to go (and did go, see Jeep thread) and an EV isn't going to get me there. Really no way around that. On the flip side, Jeep found watering holes all over without an issue.

Comfy

Because that is the truth. .
Okay, let me rephrase that; because that is the future which I look forward to.
I appreciate your outdoors spirit and like the Jeep for what it offers. There isn’t any TV available right now which offers such practicality (well until the Rivian and Cybertruck hit the roads). The disadvantages for electric vehicles you mention are only transient and will be a non-issue in the next few years.

SamDoe1

See I don't believe this to be true. It makes financial and public sense to add charging infrastructure in areas with a good amount of traffic. It makes sense to install that in an area where it gets used to the capacity it has. Makes zero sense to put it in the middle of nowhere.

00TL-P3.2

I grew up in a town in SE TX with ~6k people. I don't see any public chargers being put in there (high likelihood that there are few to no Teslas or EVs there either). Sure most owners will obviously have a home charger, but I'd hazard a guess that the closest public charger would be in Beaumont ~25-40 miles away 1-way.

Comfy

I truly understand those concerns. The ever increasing range and continuous expansion of charging network will make these a non issue.

#1 STUNNA

When they announced the Model Y they said it had 280mi range, when they launched it a year later (and 6 months ahead of schedule) it had 316mi range due to improvements they were able to make, mostly the next level heat pump and octavalve tech. The Semi was announced in 2017, long before battery day, 2 years before they even bought Maxwell. When they unveiled the Semi they mentioned that 80% of routes are less than 250mi so 500mi would cover a roundtrip. Also they'd have the ability to charge the Semi while the payload was loaded/unloaded. If a company buys a fleet of Tesla Semis they'd wisely install Tesla Megachargers at their distribution centers so the trucks can charge at their origin and destination, and Tesla is guaranteeing $0.07/kwh charging costs which is much cheaper than diesel, and they will gain 400mi range in 30 min of charging which is enough for 6 hours of driving. They also have to stop for at least an hour within an 11-hour period, which is plenty of time to recharge the battery. Also maintenance will be much less, fuel will be less.



If you use the Autopilot tech you can have a convoy of Tesla Semis and thanks to the aerodynamics save even more, it could be cheaper to send freight using a Tesla convoy than using a train.



If the Semi only has 500mi when it's launched that's enough to cover 80% of all semi routes I'd say that's a really good solution for most drivers, however I'd expect it to have 600mi range when launched. I don't think Elon was anticipating 54% increase in battery energy density in 2017. Tesla EVs and Semis will meet the needs for the vast majority of people on a bell curve, edge causes doesn't invalidate that fact.

Source for my graphs

https://energymag.net/daily-energy-demand-curve/

SamDoe1

I don't disagree with this statement. My disagreement comes with the timeframe of "the next few years" which I honestly don't think will be true unless some company (Rivian and Jeep come to mind) start installing EV chargers in more remote locations. Also, when going on "adventure trips" your rate of energy consumption is quite a lot higher than when driving on the highway so that's another thing to consider.

There are so many "ifs" in here it's not even funny.

The point of the matter is that it's not as simple as selling people EV semi trucks. There's an absolutely massive, and expensive, amount of infrastructure that also needs to get put in place to support them. This doesn't even count the logistical changes required to do this too. Having a truck sit idle to charge for an hour or more is a killer compared to filling up a diesel tank in 15 minutes. Even if EV is cheaper per mile driven, it may not be cheaper per mile total due to down time.

Also, truck drivers go a lot further than 600 miles in a day and fuel stops need to be as fast as possible as, again, time is money. Modern trucks are sensored out the max in order to gain any efficiency possible. Shit, they have started to even monitor how long trucks have their engine at idle and plan routes so that they don't have to make left turns. Source: my FIL is a truck driver.