Tesla: Development and Technology News
#441
AZ Community Team
^ Tesla's profit does not come from selling EV, but from EV tax credits. Tesla has done an amazing job revolutionizing and evolving EV but once the big auto makers are fully into EV operation they'll be relegated to the premier EV market.
https://medium.com/surviving-tomorro...t-2858c86589d0
https://medium.com/surviving-tomorro...t-2858c86589d0
Tesla Is Dead (And Elon Musk Knows It)
The $600+ billion company is a game-changer, but it won’t exist in 50 years
Jared A. Brock
Jared A. Brock
Follow
May 31 · 8 min read
I will never forget the first time I drove a Tesla Model X. My producer rented one when we met up with a movie star to record narration for a film I was directing. “This better not be tacked onto the film budget,” I griped.
He grinned and tossed me the Tesla-shaped key. “It’s your birthday present.”
I dropped the body to its most ground-hugging setting, set the acceleration to Ludicrous Mode, and roared out of the airport. It was one of the most exhilarating rides of my entire life — almost as fun as the time I drove 150MPH with no plates and no insurance on a toll road as an idiot teenager.
Driving a Tesla X is a pure pleasure, but it doesn’t mean Tesla Inc. will survive.
In fact, forces are aligning that could easily wipe Tesla off the map. Here are seven reasons why Tesla probably won’t exist fifty years from now:
1. It doesn’t make money from selling cars
As professor Scott Galloway recently pointed out, if you subtract Tesla’s Bitcoin ponzi profits and emissions credits, Tesla actually loses money:
“Tesla posts an accounting profit, but in its most recent quarter, it was emissions credits (a regulatory program that rewards auto companies for making electric rather than gas vehicles) and — wait for it — $101 million in bitcoin trading profits that morphed earnings from a miss to a beat. What Tesla did not do last quarter was produce a single one of its two premium cars, the Model S or the Model X.”
Losing money doesn’t seem to worry speculators during peaks of irrational exuberance, but when the rubber meets the road and the stock bubble pops and corporate credit constricts, real investors will want no part in money-burning businesses.
And it won’t take a full market meltdown for Tesla to become a money-losing entity: If the global crypto ponzi bubble pops due to more countries banning or regulating it, or regulators do away with emissions credits, Tesla once again becomes a money-bleeding company.
2. Elon Musk is too distracted to remain CEO
One thing you’ve got to appreciate about Elon Musk is that he’s voraciously curious and wants to solve some of humanity’s biggest challenges.
But that’s not who you want as CEO of a publicly-traded company.
One of the reasons you don’t see most Fortune 500 CEOs on Joe Rogan and SNL and, you know, running five other companies, is because they’re heads-down focused on running one company. When he ran Disney, Bob Iger woke up at 4:15 AM every day. Apple’s Tim Cook gets up at 3:45 AM and reads 800 emails. Elon Musk also puts in absurd hours — I personally question if sleep deprivation is what rational shareholders are looking for in any CEO — but in Elon’s case, it’s spread across too many projects to be sustainable for decades to come.
3. Elon is already diversifying
Have you ever heard of Dan Schulman?
Me neither.
He’s a former AMEX guy, now the CEO of Paypal.
Elon is brilliant at getting out early and pivoting hard.
He did it with Zip2, and then Paypal, and now he’s putting out feelers to do it with Tesla:
SpaceX.
SolarCity.
Hyperloop.
The Boring Company.
Neuralink.
BTC and DOGE. (Side note: Elon knows he’s the king memer and could easily add $100 billion to his net worth by launching his own altcoin.)
It’s only a matter of time before one of these side hustles takes off and he steps down as Tesla’s CEO, if only because…
4. More regulation and oversight are on the way
Elon once again put Tesla in the crosshairs when he started manipulating the cryptocurrency markets.
Never forget how close he came to getting banned from leading a publicly-traded company by the SEC.
If he keeps up these sorts of shenanigans — and he needs to in order to keep the stock price pumped — it’s only a matter of time before government regulators and progressive politicians renew their efforts to rein him in.
Speaking of lawsuits: There are already rumblings that his SNL Asperger’s announcement should have been disclosed to investors — when the stock tanks, expect to see this admission somewhere in the shareholder lawsuit, whether it’s fair grounds or not.
5. The stock price is wildly overvalued
Cue the angry comments from hodlers. (But please note that I automatically delete comments if the poster doesn’t disclose their TSLA holdings.)
As a sound investment, $TSLA stock is one of the worst picks in the world. As a fun gamble/speculation, it’s one of the best. But, just like Bitcoin, small investors are going to lose hundreds of billions of dollars when the price bubble pops.
Because let’s face it: Tesla is a story stock.
Don’t believe me? Just look at who’s been buying shares:
Tesla stock is clearly being pumped by unsophisticated investors who haven’t done their due diligence regarding the company’s actual long-term worth.
The end result: When thousands of Tesla speculators lose their life savings, many will turn their backs on the company, if not become actively hostile.
What is $TSLA actually worth?
First, we need some context. The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is considered the benchmark number for comparing one company’s stock price to another. The ratio is based on the current stock price divided by the trailing 12-month earnings per share. If a stock price is $10/share, and the P/E ratio is 10, it means that company is earning $1 per share. If you buy a $10 share with a P/E of 20, it’ll roughly take you 20 years to break even.
Warren Buffett likes to buy stocks with a P/E of around 12.
The S&P 500’s long-term median P/E ratio is around 15.
The S&P 500’s current P/E ratio is around 44 — nearly triple its century-long average — despite the pandemic and a looming joblessness crisis. (#Bubble)
Apple’s P/E is typically <30.
Amazon hovers around 60.
Tesla’s P/E ratio is currently over 600.
That’s $0.99 worth of earnings for every $625 invested. Would you buy a business with an ROI of 0.001584%? Would you acquire a company that will take 600+ years to break even?
Cue the irrational exuberancers: “But Tesla’s future potential is huge!”
No, it’s not, not compared to its current price. To fall in line with the S&P’s historical averages and provide a reasonable rate of real return, Tesla would need to 40X its earnings. To provide a 10% annual return, it would need to 63X its earnings. Well over $2 trillion in annual revenue… 4+X more revenue than the largest revenue-earning company on earth. Not gonna happen.
Objectively, Tesla is wildly overpriced even compared to the overall market bubble. It’s a double bubble — the overall market bubble + the Musk fanboy story stock bubble. Tesla may very well be 13Xs better than the average S&P company right now, but that just means Tesla’s price bubble is that much more inflated once you scrub out all the irrational exuberance.
Tesla’s market cap is currently over $600 billion. If it traded at the same P/E as Amazon — arguably one of the strongest companies on earth — Tesla’s market cap drops to $60 billion. If you compare Tesla to Apple, which is a fair comparison and a far more rational P/E, it means that in reality, Tesla is probably only worth a measly $20 billion.
6. Volkswagen+ will come roaring back
To put things in perspective, Tesla’s market cap is currently higher than Mercedes, BMW, GM, Ferrari, and Ford, plus all the major airlines… combined.
But does Tesla have more customers, wider distribution, better engineers, deeper pockets, and more political connections than the rest of the auto and airline industries?
Absolutely not.
All his major competitors have deeper capital pools, wider distribution networks, and far more customers. Musk has nowhere near the political power. And the innovation gap is closing rapidly. That’s why Elon is constantly seeking new capital and pulling out all the stops to keep pumping the stock, even going so far as to manipulate people’s psychology through stock splits.
Elon Musk has unquestionably (and rightly) created a Thucydides Trap in the automotive industry, but is Tesla really the Athens that can best Sparta?
The question is almost irrelevant because another company is about to out-Athens Tesla and stuff Elon in his own Thucydides trap:
7. Apple will drop an atomic bomb
When Apple releases an electric car — and you can bet your bottom dollar it will — we can safely assume it will rival Tesla for looks and coolness and will likely beat it on price, too.
Follow the money with me…
When Apple makes a car play, it could easily pop Tesla’s 600 P/E bubble…
If Tesla deflates to an Apple-level P/E of 30, Tesla is suddenly only worth $20 billion…
Which makes it instantly ripe for acquisition by one of the majors, be it Apple, Amazon, BMW, Mercedes, or even an old-school company like GM. (Never forget: Ford once bought Jaguar and Fiat once owned Maserati.)
To be clear, Tesla is an amazing company at a $20 billion valuation, and if Elon can’t keep the $TLSA stock price inflated indefinitely, an acquisition is inevitable. Never mind the bite in Apple’s logo… someone could chomp Tesla whole.
In Conclusion
I adore Tesla. Like Russia and HBO, it punches way above its weight.
I also like Elon, minus his market manipulation. He’s an extremely important person in the carmaking space. I’ll say it loudly: Elon Musk is the best thing to happen to the auto industry since Henry Ford. As a maverick agitator, he awoke the slumbering giants who’d happily relied on fossil fuel combustion for more than a century. We’re better for having him.
But, in the same way that Paypal will continue to lose ground to companies like Wise and Stripe, expect Tesla to lose ground to Volkswagen and Apple and whatever innovators come next. If things play out the way I predict regarding an eventual acquisition, fifty years from now Tesla probably won’t even exist.
In the meantime, don’t buy into the stock hype and endanger your family’s future.
Just rent a Model X for a weekend and enjoy the ride.
The $600+ billion company is a game-changer, but it won’t exist in 50 years
Jared A. Brock
Jared A. Brock
Follow
May 31 · 8 min read
I will never forget the first time I drove a Tesla Model X. My producer rented one when we met up with a movie star to record narration for a film I was directing. “This better not be tacked onto the film budget,” I griped.
He grinned and tossed me the Tesla-shaped key. “It’s your birthday present.”
I dropped the body to its most ground-hugging setting, set the acceleration to Ludicrous Mode, and roared out of the airport. It was one of the most exhilarating rides of my entire life — almost as fun as the time I drove 150MPH with no plates and no insurance on a toll road as an idiot teenager.
Driving a Tesla X is a pure pleasure, but it doesn’t mean Tesla Inc. will survive.
In fact, forces are aligning that could easily wipe Tesla off the map. Here are seven reasons why Tesla probably won’t exist fifty years from now:
1. It doesn’t make money from selling cars
As professor Scott Galloway recently pointed out, if you subtract Tesla’s Bitcoin ponzi profits and emissions credits, Tesla actually loses money:
“Tesla posts an accounting profit, but in its most recent quarter, it was emissions credits (a regulatory program that rewards auto companies for making electric rather than gas vehicles) and — wait for it — $101 million in bitcoin trading profits that morphed earnings from a miss to a beat. What Tesla did not do last quarter was produce a single one of its two premium cars, the Model S or the Model X.”
Losing money doesn’t seem to worry speculators during peaks of irrational exuberance, but when the rubber meets the road and the stock bubble pops and corporate credit constricts, real investors will want no part in money-burning businesses.
And it won’t take a full market meltdown for Tesla to become a money-losing entity: If the global crypto ponzi bubble pops due to more countries banning or regulating it, or regulators do away with emissions credits, Tesla once again becomes a money-bleeding company.
2. Elon Musk is too distracted to remain CEO
One thing you’ve got to appreciate about Elon Musk is that he’s voraciously curious and wants to solve some of humanity’s biggest challenges.
But that’s not who you want as CEO of a publicly-traded company.
One of the reasons you don’t see most Fortune 500 CEOs on Joe Rogan and SNL and, you know, running five other companies, is because they’re heads-down focused on running one company. When he ran Disney, Bob Iger woke up at 4:15 AM every day. Apple’s Tim Cook gets up at 3:45 AM and reads 800 emails. Elon Musk also puts in absurd hours — I personally question if sleep deprivation is what rational shareholders are looking for in any CEO — but in Elon’s case, it’s spread across too many projects to be sustainable for decades to come.
3. Elon is already diversifying
Have you ever heard of Dan Schulman?
Me neither.
He’s a former AMEX guy, now the CEO of Paypal.
Elon is brilliant at getting out early and pivoting hard.
He did it with Zip2, and then Paypal, and now he’s putting out feelers to do it with Tesla:
SpaceX.
SolarCity.
Hyperloop.
The Boring Company.
Neuralink.
BTC and DOGE. (Side note: Elon knows he’s the king memer and could easily add $100 billion to his net worth by launching his own altcoin.)
It’s only a matter of time before one of these side hustles takes off and he steps down as Tesla’s CEO, if only because…
4. More regulation and oversight are on the way
Elon once again put Tesla in the crosshairs when he started manipulating the cryptocurrency markets.
Never forget how close he came to getting banned from leading a publicly-traded company by the SEC.
If he keeps up these sorts of shenanigans — and he needs to in order to keep the stock price pumped — it’s only a matter of time before government regulators and progressive politicians renew their efforts to rein him in.
Speaking of lawsuits: There are already rumblings that his SNL Asperger’s announcement should have been disclosed to investors — when the stock tanks, expect to see this admission somewhere in the shareholder lawsuit, whether it’s fair grounds or not.
5. The stock price is wildly overvalued
Cue the angry comments from hodlers. (But please note that I automatically delete comments if the poster doesn’t disclose their TSLA holdings.)
As a sound investment, $TSLA stock is one of the worst picks in the world. As a fun gamble/speculation, it’s one of the best. But, just like Bitcoin, small investors are going to lose hundreds of billions of dollars when the price bubble pops.
Because let’s face it: Tesla is a story stock.
Don’t believe me? Just look at who’s been buying shares:
Tesla stock is clearly being pumped by unsophisticated investors who haven’t done their due diligence regarding the company’s actual long-term worth.
The end result: When thousands of Tesla speculators lose their life savings, many will turn their backs on the company, if not become actively hostile.
What is $TSLA actually worth?
First, we need some context. The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is considered the benchmark number for comparing one company’s stock price to another. The ratio is based on the current stock price divided by the trailing 12-month earnings per share. If a stock price is $10/share, and the P/E ratio is 10, it means that company is earning $1 per share. If you buy a $10 share with a P/E of 20, it’ll roughly take you 20 years to break even.
Warren Buffett likes to buy stocks with a P/E of around 12.
The S&P 500’s long-term median P/E ratio is around 15.
The S&P 500’s current P/E ratio is around 44 — nearly triple its century-long average — despite the pandemic and a looming joblessness crisis. (#Bubble)
Apple’s P/E is typically <30.
Amazon hovers around 60.
Tesla’s P/E ratio is currently over 600.
That’s $0.99 worth of earnings for every $625 invested. Would you buy a business with an ROI of 0.001584%? Would you acquire a company that will take 600+ years to break even?
Cue the irrational exuberancers: “But Tesla’s future potential is huge!”
No, it’s not, not compared to its current price. To fall in line with the S&P’s historical averages and provide a reasonable rate of real return, Tesla would need to 40X its earnings. To provide a 10% annual return, it would need to 63X its earnings. Well over $2 trillion in annual revenue… 4+X more revenue than the largest revenue-earning company on earth. Not gonna happen.
Objectively, Tesla is wildly overpriced even compared to the overall market bubble. It’s a double bubble — the overall market bubble + the Musk fanboy story stock bubble. Tesla may very well be 13Xs better than the average S&P company right now, but that just means Tesla’s price bubble is that much more inflated once you scrub out all the irrational exuberance.
Tesla’s market cap is currently over $600 billion. If it traded at the same P/E as Amazon — arguably one of the strongest companies on earth — Tesla’s market cap drops to $60 billion. If you compare Tesla to Apple, which is a fair comparison and a far more rational P/E, it means that in reality, Tesla is probably only worth a measly $20 billion.
6. Volkswagen+ will come roaring back
To put things in perspective, Tesla’s market cap is currently higher than Mercedes, BMW, GM, Ferrari, and Ford, plus all the major airlines… combined.
But does Tesla have more customers, wider distribution, better engineers, deeper pockets, and more political connections than the rest of the auto and airline industries?
Absolutely not.
All his major competitors have deeper capital pools, wider distribution networks, and far more customers. Musk has nowhere near the political power. And the innovation gap is closing rapidly. That’s why Elon is constantly seeking new capital and pulling out all the stops to keep pumping the stock, even going so far as to manipulate people’s psychology through stock splits.
Elon Musk has unquestionably (and rightly) created a Thucydides Trap in the automotive industry, but is Tesla really the Athens that can best Sparta?
The question is almost irrelevant because another company is about to out-Athens Tesla and stuff Elon in his own Thucydides trap:
7. Apple will drop an atomic bomb
When Apple releases an electric car — and you can bet your bottom dollar it will — we can safely assume it will rival Tesla for looks and coolness and will likely beat it on price, too.
Follow the money with me…
When Apple makes a car play, it could easily pop Tesla’s 600 P/E bubble…
If Tesla deflates to an Apple-level P/E of 30, Tesla is suddenly only worth $20 billion…
Which makes it instantly ripe for acquisition by one of the majors, be it Apple, Amazon, BMW, Mercedes, or even an old-school company like GM. (Never forget: Ford once bought Jaguar and Fiat once owned Maserati.)
To be clear, Tesla is an amazing company at a $20 billion valuation, and if Elon can’t keep the $TLSA stock price inflated indefinitely, an acquisition is inevitable. Never mind the bite in Apple’s logo… someone could chomp Tesla whole.
In Conclusion
I adore Tesla. Like Russia and HBO, it punches way above its weight.
I also like Elon, minus his market manipulation. He’s an extremely important person in the carmaking space. I’ll say it loudly: Elon Musk is the best thing to happen to the auto industry since Henry Ford. As a maverick agitator, he awoke the slumbering giants who’d happily relied on fossil fuel combustion for more than a century. We’re better for having him.
But, in the same way that Paypal will continue to lose ground to companies like Wise and Stripe, expect Tesla to lose ground to Volkswagen and Apple and whatever innovators come next. If things play out the way I predict regarding an eventual acquisition, fifty years from now Tesla probably won’t even exist.
In the meantime, don’t buy into the stock hype and endanger your family’s future.
Just rent a Model X for a weekend and enjoy the ride.
The following users liked this post:
civicdrivr (06-14-2021)
#442
Ex-OEM King
Invisible art is the new oceanfront property.
The "real competitors" are all still wishing EVs would go away. They are not going to be able to command the margins they were used to. Hence the Japanese companies are dragging their feet as they are forced into the game. So are MB and BMW. They announce and hype stuff but keep delaying shipping. Tesla is way ahead in battery tech (they go more miles on a smaller battery) and generally all tech (intuitive and lag-free infotainment). Other car makers are being forced to sign up with Amazon and Google to deliver bits and pieces of their software. Not one of these companies has the charging infrastructure of Tesla. I don't think Tesla's current stock price is justified, but I also do not think it is a zero (and there are many companies whose stock is overvalued, e.g. $NOW, $WORK, $SNOW, etc.). Musk has single handedly disrupted not just the auto industry but big oil as well. He deserves some credit for that. I know many households that are 100% Tesla (2-3 Teslas) and they wouldn't do that if they didn't absolutely love the cars.
The "real competitors" are all still wishing EVs would go away. They are not going to be able to command the margins they were used to. Hence the Japanese companies are dragging their feet as they are forced into the game. So are MB and BMW. They announce and hype stuff but keep delaying shipping. Tesla is way ahead in battery tech (they go more miles on a smaller battery) and generally all tech (intuitive and lag-free infotainment). Other car makers are being forced to sign up with Amazon and Google to deliver bits and pieces of their software. Not one of these companies has the charging infrastructure of Tesla. I don't think Tesla's current stock price is justified, but I also do not think it is a zero (and there are many companies whose stock is overvalued, e.g. $NOW, $WORK, $SNOW, etc.). Musk has single handedly disrupted not just the auto industry but big oil as well. He deserves some credit for that. I know many households that are 100% Tesla (2-3 Teslas) and they wouldn't do that if they didn't absolutely love the cars.
The real competitor to Tesla has been already coming for the last 10 years. Don’t waste your time counting on i4. .
none of the cars you mentioned will sell in meaningful numbers to make a difference to Tesla. But yes, I like the fact that they are all EVs and helping with the transition, and therefore I wish them well.
If at all, these EVs will show people how much better technology Tesla has and that will help the sales of Tesla. Just saying.
My intent is to simply keep the discussion (and entertainment going).
none of the cars you mentioned will sell in meaningful numbers to make a difference to Tesla. But yes, I like the fact that they are all EVs and helping with the transition, and therefore I wish them well.
If at all, these EVs will show people how much better technology Tesla has and that will help the sales of Tesla. Just saying.
My intent is to simply keep the discussion (and entertainment going).
And of course they didn't make any money in 2007, they didn't even sell anything back then. The Roadster doesn't count as that was more or less a concept car.
The only difference I feel is that unlike Apple which aims for only the premium market , Tesla is aiming for the mass market and therefore will likely have a higher market share. It is besides the fact that none of the others will have as much profit margins at scale as Tesla. So in theory, Tesla can undercut almost all legacy automakers if needed. Now there’s a question of dealerships too. So unless that status changes, Tesla will eat everyone’s breakfast, lunch, and dinner. .
Tesla does, to this day, change their price on a whim because their costs change all the time. It's not any different than a dealership and I'd argue that it's worse because the service sucks a big one. If Tesla's profit margins were so big they wouldn't need to sell credits to be profitable.
#443
Three Wheelin'
This is a flat out lie. All of the major players in the market are 100% invested in EV now because it is the way of the future. If they were wishing it would go away you wouldn't be seeing EV after EV hitting the market from everyone out there. Just this past year we've had the Taycan, e-tron, e-tron GT, ID4, MachE, F150 Lightning, i4, iX, EQS, Ioniq, whatever the Kia ones are, etc all hit the market. Next year there will be even more and the numbers will continue to grow. The catch of why Tesla is better than all of these RIGHT NOW has nothing to do with the cars themselves, the distribution network, the lack of dealers, or anything like that. It has everything to do with the charging network and infrastructure they've built. That is the number one selling point for a Tesla right now. As the charging infrastructure of the country improves past the abysmal point it's at now to something more consistent, these other cars will start to appeal a lot more than they do right now.
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Comfy (06-14-2021)
#444
Ex-OEM King
I guess we have a different perspective. Perhaps start with listing out the number of new gas/hybrid models that we have seen manufacturers put out in the past year. All manufacturers are eager to see their stock price go up and announcing an EV magically seems to do just that, so there is a financial incentive for them to pretend that they are "on top of it". We are at something like 2% of sales for EVs. Regardless of what these other manufacturers are announcing, the bulk of their sales and profits come from ICE. For these guys, even hybrids are considered "electrified", they are so desperate to be associated with electric.
#445
. Just this past year we've had the Taycan, e-tron, e-tron GT, ID4, MachE, F150 Lightning, i4, iX, EQS, Ioniq,
And in regards to selling in meaningful numbers, the MachE has been eating Model 3 market share for a while now. Once the i4 and iX hit, it'll be worse and the F150 will be a hammer.
I estimate that Ford will make $17T in 2026 because of the runaway success of the MachE and the F150.
No. They cannot undercut everyone because they suck at manufacturing.
.
And in regards to selling in meaningful numbers, the MachE has been eating Model 3 market share for a while now. Once the i4 and iX hit, it'll be worse and the F150 will be a hammer.
I estimate that Ford will make $17T in 2026 because of the runaway success of the MachE and the F150.
No. They cannot undercut everyone because they suck at manufacturing.
.
Just listing the EVs out there for sale doesn’t make them a runaway success. And that too Mach E, without any tax credit if at all, worse specs than Y, no supercharger support. ...... ho boy. I get that you are a big Ford fanboi, but terribly uninformed too.
Guess lunch is here for everyone to take, whoever comes first. Tesla is already here. Ford has to have batteries first to sell any EVs in volume. .
#446
Ex-OEM King
ok man, whatever you say. Let me know when you have more Teslas than me. Then you can call me a Ford fanboi.
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Sarlacc (06-14-2021)
#447
Team Owner
Everyone else knows that the real advantage that Tesla has is the charging stations, I would not be surprised if all other manuf. would soon get together and invest in charging stations together and share among everyone (except for Tesla).
The speed and efficiency of building those stations will be many many times faster than Tesla trying to do that on their own...
That is when Tesla will be forced to open up their stations to everyone else
We will see.
Just put you Tesla fanboys into perspective.. Again... all of these is ONE model from ONE manuf... outsold the entire Tesla brand.
2005 901,463
2006 796,039
2007 691,589
2008 515,513
2009 413,625
2010 528,349
2011 584,917
2012 692,589
2013 764,402
2014 753,851
2015 780,354
2016 820,799
2017 896,764
2018 909,330
2019 896,526
2020 787,372
The speed and efficiency of building those stations will be many many times faster than Tesla trying to do that on their own...
That is when Tesla will be forced to open up their stations to everyone else
We will see.
Just put you Tesla fanboys into perspective.. Again... all of these is ONE model from ONE manuf... outsold the entire Tesla brand.
While the industry's current sales numbers are all a bit unusual due to the pandemic and the chip shortage, Musk's statement about the Model Y topping the sales lists next year needs some scrutiny as well. Tesla delivered 442,562 Model 3 and Model Y vehicles in 2020. The company groups them together in its investor reports, but Musk's statement that the Model Y will become the world leader sounds extremely dubious, considering Toyota sold 1.2 million Corollas worldwide in 2019.
FORD F SERIES – US – BY YEAR
Year sold2005 901,463
2006 796,039
2007 691,589
2008 515,513
2009 413,625
2010 528,349
2011 584,917
2012 692,589
2013 764,402
2014 753,851
2015 780,354
2016 820,799
2017 896,764
2018 909,330
2019 896,526
2020 787,372
#448
Buddy. Wake up from your slumber. ICE isn’t going to fly for long. These numbers you listed aren’t going to be there for the next 5 years. There’s nowhere for them to go but down.
So now it’s the supercharger network. It was the charging speed and range a while ago. Wonder why you guys always come up with some excuse for Tesla leading the EV. .
Tesla’s popularity is continuously rising. Model Y is nearly sold out for Q3 as of today. They are still production constrained till the two new factories come alive. You all will
be singing a different tune by next year this time. . You already saw from this forum that the biggest critiques of Tesla are buying Tesla for some reason or the other. The proof is in the pudding, dude. .
So now it’s the supercharger network. It was the charging speed and range a while ago. Wonder why you guys always come up with some excuse for Tesla leading the EV. .
Tesla’s popularity is continuously rising. Model Y is nearly sold out for Q3 as of today. They are still production constrained till the two new factories come alive. You all will
be singing a different tune by next year this time. . You already saw from this forum that the biggest critiques of Tesla are buying Tesla for some reason or the other. The proof is in the pudding, dude. .
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#1 STUNNA (06-14-2021)
#449
My first Avatar....
Well I'm not going to buy a tesla, and i'm not going to buy another EV because of charging infrastructure. So ICE ICE baby!
Last edited by pttl; 06-14-2021 at 10:21 PM.
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civicdrivr (06-15-2021)
#450
Ex-OEM King
Buddy. Wake up from your slumber. ICE isn’t going to fly for long. These numbers you listed aren’t going to be there for the next 5 years. There’s nowhere for them to go but down.
So now it’s the supercharger network. It was the charging speed and range a while ago. Wonder why you guys always come up with some excuse for Tesla leading the EV. .
Tesla’s popularity is continuously rising. Model Y is nearly sold out for Q3 as of today. They are still production constrained till the two new factories come alive. You all will
be singing a different tune by next year this time. . You already saw from this forum that the biggest critiques of Tesla are buying Tesla for some reason or the other. The proof is in the pudding, dude. .
So now it’s the supercharger network. It was the charging speed and range a while ago. Wonder why you guys always come up with some excuse for Tesla leading the EV. .
Tesla’s popularity is continuously rising. Model Y is nearly sold out for Q3 as of today. They are still production constrained till the two new factories come alive. You all will
be singing a different tune by next year this time. . You already saw from this forum that the biggest critiques of Tesla are buying Tesla for some reason or the other. The proof is in the pudding, dude. .
Again, if ICE is going to die tomorrow why aren't you buying a Tesla?
#451
Team Owner
Buddy. Wake up from your slumber. ICE isn’t going to fly for long. These numbers you listed aren’t going to be there for the next 5 years. There’s nowhere for them to go but down.
So now it’s the supercharger network. It was the charging speed and range a while ago. Wonder why you guys always come up with some excuse for Tesla leading the EV. .
Tesla’s popularity is continuously rising. Model Y is nearly sold out for Q3 as of today. They are still production constrained till the two new factories come alive. You all will
be singing a different tune by next year this time. . You already saw from this forum that the biggest critiques of Tesla are buying Tesla for some reason or the other. The proof is in the pudding, dude. .
So now it’s the supercharger network. It was the charging speed and range a while ago. Wonder why you guys always come up with some excuse for Tesla leading the EV. .
Tesla’s popularity is continuously rising. Model Y is nearly sold out for Q3 as of today. They are still production constrained till the two new factories come alive. You all will
be singing a different tune by next year this time. . You already saw from this forum that the biggest critiques of Tesla are buying Tesla for some reason or the other. The proof is in the pudding, dude. .
You willing to bet some $$ on that?
#452
Senior Moderator
I hope Tesla makes a yoke tire and wheel.
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#453
Team Owner
#454
Ex-OEM King
Also having the Model Y sold out for Q3 is NOT a good thing. That means money is being left on the table from prospective buyers who are now going to go elsewhere. All this highlights is the lack of Tesla's ability to manufacture enough cars to meet demand.
#455
And this going to pound the model 3 in sales.... right. .
https://twitter.com/alex_avoigt/status/1404731805698347009?s=21
Last edited by Comfy; 06-15-2021 at 03:17 PM.
#456
#457
Senior Moderator
From a stocks investment, they get no hate from me at all...I wish I put money in them.
#458
#459
Team Owner
and you put ALL your $$ in TSLA? well, i hope you are smarter than that when it comes to investing...
Actually you probably aren't ....
Last edited by oonowindoo; 06-15-2021 at 03:16 PM.
#460
#461
Team Owner
https://twitter.com/alex_avoigt/stat...648899072?s=21
And this going to pound the model 3 in sales.... right. .
https://twitter.com/alex_avoigt/stat...698347009?s=21
And this going to pound the model 3 in sales.... right. .
https://twitter.com/alex_avoigt/stat...698347009?s=21
If i were in a market for an EV... I would take i4 M50i over Model 3 any day of the week.
It will be cheaper in reality
It is way more practical
It looks way better than Model 3 and i dont think even think i4 looks good
It has WAYYYY better interior than Model 3
It has WAYYYY better built quality than Model 3
Probably has similar range as Model 3 in the real world
When it comes to service and loaner cars, it is WAYYYY more easier.
It is slower. So what? how often do you race people in your model 3? Oh forgot you dont have 1.
its 0-60 is less than 4 secs.. if you could live with your slow ass RDX, i am sure almost 99.99% of the people will be fine with i4M50's acceleration.
Last edited by oonowindoo; 06-15-2021 at 03:25 PM.
#462
Azine Jabroni
I'd give back 2 seconds 0-60 to get my Model 3 back from the $13,000 hail damage repair job.
Which is another reason to get the BMW: More people will work on them in the case of an insurance claim. Tesla body shops extort you.
Which is another reason to get the BMW: More people will work on them in the case of an insurance claim. Tesla body shops extort you.
#463
Team Owner
#464
Azine Jabroni
They have certified body shops. I tried to go to a non one and the body shop was like "we won't touch it because it's a Tesla"
The issue is two months ago when I filed the claim, the Venn diagram of "Tesla certified body shops" and "USAA certified body shops" in Austin was non-existent. Recently, one of the larger companies got certified.
But the PDR folks definitely screw you big time.
Well, that and new roof, new wind shield, new front hood.
The issue is two months ago when I filed the claim, the Venn diagram of "Tesla certified body shops" and "USAA certified body shops" in Austin was non-existent. Recently, one of the larger companies got certified.
But the PDR folks definitely screw you big time.
Well, that and new roof, new wind shield, new front hood.
#465
Team Owner
Well.. I think your car will come out in better condition than before. I am sure these ppl will actually measure the gap
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#466
Ex-OEM King
If i were in a market for an EV... I would take i4 M50i over Model 3 any day of the week.
It will be cheaper in reality
It is way more practical
It looks way better than Model 3 and i dont think even think i4 looks good
It has WAYYYY better interior than Model 3
It has WAYYYY better built quality than Model 3
Probably has similar range as Model 3 in the real world
When it comes to service and loaner cars, it is WAYYYY more easier.
It is slower. So what? how often do you race people in your model 3? Oh forgot you dont have 1.
its 0-60 is less than 4 secs.. if you could live with your slow ass RDX, i am sure almost 99.99% of the people will be fine with i4M50's acceleration.
It will be cheaper in reality
It is way more practical
It looks way better than Model 3 and i dont think even think i4 looks good
It has WAYYYY better interior than Model 3
It has WAYYYY better built quality than Model 3
Probably has similar range as Model 3 in the real world
When it comes to service and loaner cars, it is WAYYYY more easier.
It is slower. So what? how often do you race people in your model 3? Oh forgot you dont have 1.
its 0-60 is less than 4 secs.. if you could live with your slow ass RDX, i am sure almost 99.99% of the people will be fine with i4M50's acceleration.
FSD is bullshit, it's not a reason to buy a Tesla any more than hydrogen fuel is a reason to buy a Toyota.
#467
Team Owner
But your ICE car is donezo at this point, it's a relic of the past and you should be ashamed for driving it. Anyone not driving or awaiting delivery of a Tesla is a gigantic moron right?
All of this is true. Unfortunately the BMW doesn't have anywhere close to the charging infrastructure as the Tesla which is, honestly, the biggest reason to get one. If BMW had a charging network similar to Tesla I would have bought one in a heartbeat. Similarly, if the M3 wasn't fugly I would have bought that.
FSD is bullshit, it's not a reason to buy a Tesla any more than hydrogen fuel is a reason to buy a Toyota.
All of this is true. Unfortunately the BMW doesn't have anywhere close to the charging infrastructure as the Tesla which is, honestly, the biggest reason to get one. If BMW had a charging network similar to Tesla I would have bought one in a heartbeat. Similarly, if the M3 wasn't fugly I would have bought that.
FSD is bullshit, it's not a reason to buy a Tesla any more than hydrogen fuel is a reason to buy a Toyota.
I have a feeling that they all gonna work together vs. Tesla on its own. It will be way faster and easier and cheaper for everyone.
#468
My first Avatar....
Yah.. that is pretty much the #1 key advantage Tesla has over just pretty much everyone. But if we know it, then all the big boys like VW, Toyota, BMW, The big 3 know it just as well, they will figure out a way to fix that bottle neck. Once they do, then we will see how the game changes.
I have a feeling that they all gonna work together vs. Tesla on its own. It will be way faster and easier and cheaper for everyone.
I have a feeling that they all gonna work together vs. Tesla on its own. It will be way faster and easier and cheaper for everyone.
#469
There you go. That was Elon’s mission anyways. Thank you for promoting it.
#470
My first Avatar....
Elon will be on the outside looking in. For all of his 'good intentions' I'll never buy one of his cars.
#471
Ex-OEM King
Yah.. that is pretty much the #1 key advantage Tesla has over just pretty much everyone. But if we know it, then all the big boys like VW, Toyota, BMW, The big 3 know it just as well, they will figure out a way to fix that bottle neck. Once they do, then we will see how the game changes.
I have a feeling that they all gonna work together vs. Tesla on its own. It will be way faster and easier and cheaper for everyone.
I have a feeling that they all gonna work together vs. Tesla on its own. It will be way faster and easier and cheaper for everyone.
#472
Senior Moderator
#474
My first Avatar....
Never.
#475
At this point I honestly can't tell if you're trolling or just this dense. If ICE was dead or dying it wouldn't be profitable. Legacy makers have been doing this for a century, believe me when I say that it's going to come back and bite Elon in the ass when the first real competitor (guessing i4) hits the market. Then the EQS and F150 will be the next two punches. Rivian is knocking on the door too with 2.5 years of sold out production.
#476
Senior Moderator
#477
Ex-OEM King
If you don't believe me then that's your problem but come Friday I will own the second most Teslas (after Kurt) on this forum and will be just as honest as he is about the ownership experience. If you don't believe reality and logic then that's more your problem than anything else. The world is moving along regardless.
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#479
The Third Ball
Join Date: Sep 2002
Location: Los Angeles, Ca
Age: 45
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I like the car so I'm buying it, more than I can say about you. I don't think Tesla is the greatest thing ever and I've said time and time again that the biggest reason to get a Tesla is the supercharger network, nothing more. If other companies had that, Tesla would be in a world of hurt. The car is fast AF, fun to drive, and works well with the lifestyle I need it to do so I bought one.
If you don't believe me then that's your problem but come Friday I will own the second most Teslas (after Kurt) on this forum and will be just as honest as he is about the ownership experience. If you don't believe reality and logic then that's more your problem than anything else. The world is moving along regardless.
If you don't believe me then that's your problem but come Friday I will own the second most Teslas (after Kurt) on this forum and will be just as honest as he is about the ownership experience. If you don't believe reality and logic then that's more your problem than anything else. The world is moving along regardless.
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#480
There's something to be said about actual owners of the Teslas who not only sing the praises, but are also transparent with the issues with them.
I guess when you're all in on TSLA you don't have much choice other than to dodge legitimate concerns that you can't rebuke via a twitter link or 40 minute youtube video that nobody's going to watch
I guess when you're all in on TSLA you don't have much choice other than to dodge legitimate concerns that you can't rebuke via a twitter link or 40 minute youtube video that nobody's going to watch
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