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I worry more about brands like Honda and Subaru. Honda will survive (Subaru might not), but it's discouraging to hear their executives talking about hybrids as the future when I would rather go full EV or full ICE.
Exactly what I’ve been saying for a while. I fear that Subaru will get absorbed into Toyota. Most of the automakers will have to cling to their core strengths such as fuel economy for Toyota and Honda (if that’s a thing anymore), design/ brand catchet (for the Germans), off road prowess (for Subaru), and the pure value (other Asian brands), etc to survive the EV onslaught. Simply flogging higher priced variants of the same model will not work anymore. The EVs will attract a huge chunk of traditional customers who would have normally gone for higher priced variants of mainstream models.
The culling has already begun. Mercedes has already announced its plans to chop seven models from their range. I’m sorry if I sound a little cynical, but the reality is setting in to everyone that most of us has already bought (or will be buying soon) our last ICE car.
We are revisiting Kodak moment, the iPhone moment again here. The automotive landscape has changed and those auto manufacturers who cannot foresee it will get folded in the pages of history.
They are smart enough to have a reality check and decided that if Tesla can make a range of simple cars that can easily compete with their over engineered, over complicated, over luxurious, vehicles and sell for similar prices, then it’s not sustainable in the long run.
I know Sam likes to give me a reality check periodically, but that’s okay.
They are smart enough to have a reality check and decided that if Tesla can make a range of simple cars that can easily compete with their over engineered, over complicated, over luxurious, vehicles and sell for similar prices, then it’s not sustainable in the long run.
I know Sam likes to give me a reality check periodically, but that’s okay.
Yes, you're right about that.
But that still does not at all relate to why MB decided to stop selling coupes that no one was buying anyway.
This is Elon's Model S and it has a "prototype" version of the new "3D" paint colors that will capable of being made at the Berlin factory. I don't usually care about paint but a few weeks back I posted an article on the Taycan sales and I noticed that the Taycan had a really nice paint job, definitely better than anything Tesla puts out. Seems they might be catching up in that regards in the next year or so. IDK if this will ever come to the Fremont plant though, my impression is that the Fremont paint shop is sub par, and needs to be rebuilt or something to fix its issues.
Tesla makes the most sense when you are shopping for Model 3 or Model Y.
Exactly.
The point I’m trying to make is, five years ago there were limited choices of premium vehicles in the $40-$70,000 range (Okay some spruced up family sedans would be there too). So MB and BMW can offer an array of unlimited variations and permutations of models to satisfy the demand since every single one will sell.
Since the advent of Tesla the landscape has changed. For sake of this discussion, let’s assume that the proportion or actual number of customers willing to plonk down 40-70$ k for a new car remains the same. Since Tesla is eating away a big chunk of that customer base, there is only so much of remaining customers available. Therefore it wouldn’t make much financial sense to offer umpteen different variants (which again cost a lot to engineer and manufacture) within a dwindling pie of customers. If I’m not mistaken model 3 has sold about 300,000 cars or so. That’s the approximate number of lost sales for these manufacturers (since Tesla is a new player - those customers were previously available for the German brands). IIRC the total number of Model 3 sales is more than all the different sedans models of MB (or BMW) combined during this timeframe and it is only growing larger. So you see that’s a serious problem for them. It’s not that hard to connect the culling of MB model tange and Tesla’s rise.
I know that interior or exterior quality wise, Tesla is nowhere near the German brands, but they are priced the same and therefore that customer has to come from the same financial pool. A customer who normally buys a corolla or civic will not spend double that to buy a Tesla.
A customer who normally buys a corolla or civic will not spend double that to buy a Tesla.
yes they will, in fact that's happening a lot. But you're also correct that Tesla is really shrinking the market for MB and especially BMW. This is from the Bloomberg survey of over 5000 Tesla Model 3 owners
Tesla is taking everyone's lunch, people are turning in Civics and Camry's by the thousands to get a Model 3. But when you factor in marketshare BMW is being hit the hardest, because the Model 3 is just better.
The editors at Motor Trend magazine tested the Model 3 against the BMW 3 Series and found that the “Model 3 wins this competition because it has thoroughly rewritten the rules of what a compact sports sedan can be.” BBC’s Top Gear ran the Model 3 against BMW’s more expensive M3 at Thunderhill Raceway Park in California, where the Tesla won by 2 seconds. The magazine cover screamed, “Electric Beats Petrol! Tesla Model 3 Outguns BMW M3.”
I was looking at the model y in a parking lot. I'll be honest, if Tesla could hit a lower price point on the Y, the 3 would go away.
They can probably make the Y for the same cost or less than the 3 and they're selling it for 10% more. They made a lot of mistakes designing the body of the 3 which Sandy Munro has talked a lot about, I think the body is so unnecessarily complex that they'll have a hard time getting the costs down which why they haven't really hit that $35k price point though it'll likely be possible thanks to improvements in battery tech. They fired the guy who designed the body and have made big improvements with the Y in body design cost savings and have some more game changing improvements coming up at Giga Berlin. The "phase 1" (my term) Model Y is using a 2-piece rear diecast frame for cost savings and improved manufacturability. "Phase 2" will combine those 2 parts into 1 solid die cast rear frame, there's a massive die cast machine the size of a house being built in Fremont right now. "Phase 3" will happen at Giga Berlin where the entire frame of the vehicle will be diecast as one solid piece something that AFAIK hasn't been done in a vehicle before. Compared to the 3 the Y will be cheaper and easier to manufacture. Elon has mentioned the idea of bringing those improvements to the 3 but that wouldn't be a for a couple years if at all.
yes they will, in fact that's happening a lot. But you're also correct that Tesla is really shrinking the market for MB and especially BMW. This is from the Bloomberg survey of over 5000 Tesla Model 3 owners
Tesla is taking everyone's lunch, people are turning in Civics and Camry's by the thousands to get a Model 3. But when you factor in marketshare BMW is being hit the hardest, because the Model 3 is just better.
So that is even worse news for every automaker. Most mainstream automakers make more money by selling higher priced variants of existing models. Essentially that revenue stream will dry up since Tesla will suck up those Customers too. .
There are many BMW owners here... ask how many will ditch their BMW for Tesla....
Any one of us could have gotten a Tesla if we wanted to.....
I will agree EV is the future... but that future is so distant that you will need to convince the government about global warming first.
That is different than saying Tesla is the future..
I mean if you wanna take 1 guy's opinion as fact, we can provide plenty of those here...
Last edited by oonowindoo; 07-28-2020 at 02:10 PM.
I will likely get e-crucified for this but I think the Model Y is not very good looking.
True to a large extent. The ugly duckling egg shape is a result of incorporating the most aerodynamic design. Beauty is in the eye of the beholder anyway.
When i showed my GF the new Model Y on the road... her immediate response was WTF happened to that car's nose? why is it shaved ?
It is true that beauty is in the eye of the beholders, but that does not make it pretty.
Hold up hold up...how did Volvo manage to get lumped to the "economy" group while the Mini got counted as luxury? And something from JLR and MB (I'm guessing CLA?) got counted as economy too...
Any one of us could have gotten a Tesla if we wanted to.....
That’s the point. Any of us can get a Tesla and Acura is well within their target too.
Originally Posted by oonowindoo
There are many BMW owners here... ask how many will ditch their BMW for Tesla....
Not exactly same, but I for one, am ditching my Mercedes for Tesla. .
Originally Posted by SamDoe1
Can you trade cars in to Tesla? Like directly?
Yes you can, but would not recommend it since they lowball is so badly. I read somewhere that one model S owner tried to trade it in for a model 3 and was offered $20,000 by Tesla. He sold it privately for $40,000.
There are many BMW owners here... ask how many will ditch their BMW for Tesla....
Any one of us could have gotten a Tesla if we wanted to.....
I will agree EV is the future... but that future is so distant that you will need to convince the government about global warming first.
That is different than saying Tesla is the future..
I mean if you wanna take 1 guy's opinion as fact, we can provide plenty of those here...
I gather from what I'm reading and hearing that there's a bit of...tribalism to owning a Tesla. Sorta like going Apple with an iPhone. It's not as great as the second coming of Jesus per se...sure, it's nice and all but there's a caveat to it. Dunno. Then again, it's like that with many car brands to an extent. BMW owners are similar and so are even Audiphiles.
I gather from what I'm reading and hearing that there's a bit of...tribalism to owning a Tesla. Sorta like going Apple with an iPhone. It's not as great as the second coming of Jesus per se...sure, it's nice and all but there's a caveat to it. Dunno. Then again, it's like that with many car brands to an extent. BMW owners are similar and so are even Audiphiles.
Tesla's success cannot be denied. People love to get a crap on the most popular stuff.
I have more practical gripes. The parts-bin nature (something like 75% parts shared between the Model 3 and Y), QC issues, and personally had a bad experience putting down a deposit on a Model 3. I don't hold grudges against companies, but I don't patronize them after having crappy experiences, either.
All 3 Tesla model interiors give a very lackluster vibe to me. The screen itself is nice, but it does not elevate the interior that much to me personally. You said it yourself, the models look similar inside and out.
This ends up working in Tesla's favor too, if people buy their cars regardless. Less development costs between models. I think I read that the seats on the Model Y are the same as the 3, they're just on elevated platforms so that they sit higher.
the analysis does not show how many Tesla traded for other brands. Tesla traded are late model. not even 3 years. let see how sales goes this month in EU and China.
Hold up hold up...how did Volvo manage to get lumped to the "economy" group while the Mini got counted as luxury? And something from JLR and MB (I'm guessing CLA?) got counted as economy too...
You can go here and hover over each of the boxes and it will tell which model it is
I have always wondered what Tesla's sales were compared to its competitors. Decided to look, out of curiosity.
You guys know how I have mentioned that I see more Teslas than competing BMWs, MBs, Audis, etc. combined? Well, here's something beyond an anecdote:
One thing to take into consideration is, Tesla is primarily competing in his own market right now and others are sharing the market.
The picture will change dramatically when everyone has a true Model 3, Y and X competitor.
One thing to take into consideration is, Tesla is primarily competing in his own market right now and others are sharing the market.
The picture will change dramatically when everyone has a true Model 3, Y and X competitor.
There in lies the problem. “When everyone has a true Model 3,Y, X competitor”. May be never ....
No one else has their own battery factory yet, so they rely on third party supplied batteries, they have to sell through dealerships (15-20% cost penalty), they have to use third party charging network- which will run on profit for the respective firm (EA or whatever else - compare their charges to Tesla SC). None have produced a comparable pre production model, even if they manage to compete on price, they will have to eat the ever slimmer profit. None of them have a vertically integrated production method, they rely on third party vendors for all crucial parts (so lost revenue there as well).
Now any sane person can imagine which one will be cheaper to own and operate. Tesla or the “others”?
Only the luxury branded manufacturers can claim much higher prices and get away with it (thereby keeping their bottom line secure- for sometime).
For an average cost conscious EV customer, there’s Tesla or nothing (Even Rivian is super expensive compared to Tesla).
There in lies the problem. “When everyone has a true Model 3,Y, X competitor”. May be never ....
No one else has their own battery factory yet, so they rely on third party supplied batteries, they have to sell through dealerships (15-20% cost penalty), they have to use third party charging network- which will run on profit for the respective firm (EA or whatever else - compare their charges to Tesla SC). None have produced a comparable pre production model, even if they manage to compete on price, they will have to eat the ever slimmer profit. None of them have a vertically integrated production method, they rely on third party vendors for all crucial parts (so lost revenue there as well).
Now any sane person can imagine which one will be cheaper to own and operate. Tesla or the “others”?
Only the luxury branded manufacturers can claim much higher prices and get away with it (thereby keeping their bottom line secure- for sometime).
For an average cost conscious EV customer, there’s Tesla or nothing (Even Rivian is super expensive compared to Tesla).
am i missing something.. Tesla is cheap now? and what does manuf structure and suppliers have to do with being a specific car model's competitor?
if you removed the word Tesla, i thought you were talking about Honda or Toyota. a Model 3 performance lease, with 4500 down is about 830 with tax included... you can get a M3/M4 for the same price... Actually you can get a M3 for cheaper.
Same as Model S and Y and X.... they are not any cheaper... despite all the alleged "advantages" you said they have...
Also When you can afford to buy a $70-100k car, which one is cheaper to own should not even be part of the consideration, gas or electric cars alike.
the new upcoming i4 and ix3 or whatever it is called might not be as good in many areas as Model 3 and model Y, but BMW will definitely retain a # of customers that otherwise might have gone to Tesla. As of right now, BMW, Mercedes and Audi owners dont have that option, but they will..
If you wanna see the overall market? Add up all the Small gas cars between BMW, Mercedes, Audi and Lexus and compare with Tesla's sales #. That is where Gas vs. Tesla in the current luxury market. about 3:1 ratio...
I wont even bother with Acura and Volvo.. they are not relevant
If you add SUVs, the # gap will be even greater.
Like i said BMW, Audi, Lexus and Mercedes have to fight for the market share in the gas segment. Tesla is not in the same segment, so they can enjoy full market share with min. competition... for now.
Last edited by oonowindoo; 07-29-2020 at 09:00 PM.
07-27-2020, 11:41 PM
but that’s okay.
