NFL: 2014 Season News and Discussion Thread
#1321
Stay Out Of the Left Lane
Join Date: Oct 2003
Location: SE Mass --- > Central VA --- > SE Mass
Age: 57
Posts: 8,983
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1,028 Posts
#1322
Old Man Yelling at Clouds
Miss lunch for one day and these are the most popular topics from the last 3 pages.
1) Patriots under inflate balls and that that make them worse than any other team.
2) Seahawks have a lot of PED violations and that makes them worse than any other team.
3) The Bears suck. Unsure if that makes them worse than the Patriots or Seahawks.
GO HAWKS
1) Patriots under inflate balls and that that make them worse than any other team.
2) Seahawks have a lot of PED violations and that makes them worse than any other team.
3) The Bears suck. Unsure if that makes them worse than the Patriots or Seahawks.
GO HAWKS
#1323
Trolling Canuckistan
Miss lunch for one day and these are the most popular topics from the last 3 pages.
1) Patriots under inflate balls and that that make them worse than any other team.
2) Seahawks have a lot of PED violations and that makes them worse than any other team.
3) The Bears suck. Unsure if that makes them worse than the Patriots or Seahawks.
4) yumcha is an excellent resource if you have a termite problem.
GO HAWKS
1) Patriots under inflate balls and that that make them worse than any other team.
2) Seahawks have a lot of PED violations and that makes them worse than any other team.
3) The Bears suck. Unsure if that makes them worse than the Patriots or Seahawks.
4) yumcha is an excellent resource if you have a termite problem.
GO HAWKS
#1324
Senior Moderator
#1325
Bears? Is like a CFL team?
#1326
Senior Moderator
#1327
Senior Moderator
You'd need to ask the others how hard Cutler's balls are though. Probably not as soft as Brady's.
#1328
Old Man Yelling at Clouds
And now we have this...
And this!!!
I'm all about that Flo boss.
And this!!!
I'm all about that Flo boss.
#1329
Old Man Yelling at Clouds
#1330
Old Man Yelling at Clouds
OK just one more.
#1331
If Cutler was as good at football as if he was at picking wives, Bears would be a legit NFL team
fuck da bears
fuck da bears
#1332
Old Man Yelling at Clouds
This guy is getting a lot of press around here. That's commitment.
#1333
^^
His truck is the wrong color
His truck is the wrong color
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Flipster23 (01-29-2015)
#1334
Team Owner
Not sure if he has a psychological problem with unscripted interviews but between Skittles, selling Beastmode hats (sold it quickly at $30 each), and now Progressive, he can push product.
#1335
^^
All abou them benjamins
All abou them benjamins
#1337
Old Man Yelling at Clouds
There is some genius to this actually when you think about it. Do things that endear yourself to the fan base (want privacy after the game, grab body parts when you score) but result in fines, generating even more support/sympathy. Then use the interest/attention you've generated and parlay that into endorsements that poke fun at "the bad guys" oppressing you with fines. Brilliant actually.
#1338
^^
One of the smartest guys ...
Go Bears (CAL BEARS-not Chicago)
One of the smartest guys ...
Go Bears (CAL BEARS-not Chicago)
#1339
Senior Moderator
Regional Coordinator
(Mid-Atlantic)
Regional Coordinator
(Mid-Atlantic)
iTrader: (6)
#1340
Senior Moderator
^ We need a Pats image of "I'm just here so that I won't cheat" and "Still cheats".
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97BlackAckCL (01-29-2015)
#1341
His teeth, turn me on
#1342
Senior Moderator
Regional Coordinator
(Mid-Atlantic)
Regional Coordinator
(Mid-Atlantic)
iTrader: (6)
Looks photoshopped, but still funny
FB_IMG_1422552728943_zpscv7ngfaz.jpg
FB_IMG_1422552728943_zpscv7ngfaz.jpg
#1343
Senior Moderator
Regional Coordinator
(Mid-Atlantic)
Regional Coordinator
(Mid-Atlantic)
iTrader: (6)
#1344
Old Man Yelling at Clouds
^ I think it was this year.
#1345
Senior Moderator
Regional Coordinator
(Mid-Atlantic)
Regional Coordinator
(Mid-Atlantic)
iTrader: (6)
Bandwagon
#1346
Senior Moderator
#1347
Team Owner
There is some genius to this actually when you think about it. Do things that endear yourself to the fan base (want privacy after the game, grab body parts when you score) but result in fines, generating even more support/sympathy. Then use the interest/attention you've generated and parlay that into endorsements that poke fun at "the bad guys" oppressing you with fines. Brilliant actually.
#1348
I shoot people
there's that guy that already got a "Back 2 Back" tattoo on his arm
#1349
Team Owner
Spankbank for Yum
http://sports.yahoo.com/news/deflate...07565-nfl.html
http://sports.yahoo.com/news/deflate...07565-nfl.html
– Maybe the smoking gun isn’t in a bathroom at Gillette Stadium. Maybe it’s in the laptop of a civil engineer in Washington, D.C.
One of the strangest twists in the already strange saga of deflate-gate is the sudden star turn of a man who runs a gambling website when he’s not doing his day job. Warren Sharp is a 36-year-old dad who loves numbers and algorithms, and decided to apply some statistics to the Patriots when he heard about the football deflation investigation. What he found sent ripples through the sports world and got a few other statisticians pretty upset.
It also may have implications beyond Tom Brady and Bill Belichick.
Sharp’s idea was to look at fumbles. That led him to a more refined topic: how well the Patriots held onto the ball both before and after the 2006 season, which happened to be the year Brady and Peyton Manning pushed for a rule change which allowed each team to provide their own footballs for games.
“Something significant changed from 2006 to 2007 that allowed them to retain the football,” Sharp said by phone Tuesday, “and that continues today.”
According to Sharp’s calculations, the Patriots’ fumble rate was 42 touches per fumble from 2000 through 2006. That was about the league average. Since 2007, however, that rate has dropped dramatically, to 74 touches per fumble. Over that time, the Pats are the best team in the NFL at holding onto the ball, even including dome teams.
“Based upon the data we’ve collected and the probabilities, it definitely is extremely unlikely that their ability to hold onto the football would change so much and be as far away from the rest of the NFL,” Sharp said. “It’s extremely unlikely.”
..
View photo
.
LeGarrette Blount (29) reacts after scoring a touchdown in the AFC championship game. (USAT)
We all know correlation does not mean causation, but this is one whopper of a correlation. The Patriots were basically an average team in terms of fumbling the football, and then Brady pushed for a rule change, and then the Patriots suddenly become wizards at football control. And all this would be cool or quirky if we weren’t embroiled in a nationwide debate over whether the Patriots altered the footballs they bring to games.
This finding trickles down to individual players, in some cases. Kevin Faulk was drafted by the Patriots in 1999 and played in New England through 2011. Up until the 2007 season, Faulk had 23 fumbles. After that point, he had two. Danny Amendola had 10 fumbles in four seasons with the Rams, then came to New England and lost the ball only once in two years.
As for Brady himself, he had 59 fumbles in his first six seasons, and only 37 in his most recent seven seasons.
“Did Bill Belichick teach players anything differently starting that season?” Sharp asked. “Something clearly happened.”
What does all this prove? Well, nothing definitively. Sharp himself admitted there is no ironclad conclusion from his data. Fumbles are somewhat random occurrences. Some fumbles happen on kickoffs, which use different footballs by league rules. And obviously the weather is different in each game. Playing in Miami in the heat of early September is far different from playing in Green Bay in December.
But Sharp is well aware of all that and yet he insists the findings can’t possibly be happenstance.
“This is definitely not random fluctuation,” he said.
Unsurprisingly, more than a few Patriots fans are not buying it. “Statistical hocus pocus,” rants one fan on Facebook. But Sharp’s analysis is also under fire from a couple of other statisticians.
“It’s 98 percent bunk,” said Greg Matthews, an assistant professor of statistics at Loyola University in Chicago. “He basically reached a conclusion already and he wants to find the most sensational stats he can find.”
Matthews said he found a “tremendous amount” of flaws in Sharp’s breakdown, among them the touches-per-fumble method of lining up the Patriots against the rest of the league.
“I refute the fact that the Patriots are an outlier,” Matthews said. “I refute that fact definitely. Are they better after [2006]? Possibly, but it’s not outrageously better.”
Tom Brady looks on during a New England Patriots practice on Wednesday. (Getty)
Matthews admits he’s a Patriots fan, though he insisted, “This has nothing to do with Patriots.”
His own portrayal of the statistics, however, doesn’t differ all that largely from Sharp’s. Matthews gives the Patriots’ fumbles-per-100-carries from 2007 through 2014 as 0.63, and the next best team is St. Louis (a dome team) with 0.71. The league average is 1.0. That still sets the Pats apart, if not as starkly. It still sets 2006 as a demarcation point.
Another leader in the statistic community, Brian Burke of Advanced Football Analytics, drew this conclusion in a recent post after looking at fumble rates (excluding dome teams):
“Whoa. In this case NE is at the top of the list, and the next best team is a distant second. Notice how the second team [Baltimore] through the second to last team [Philadelphia] have rates that are within 1 or 2 plays of each other. NE, however, is better than the next best team by 20 plays per fumble.”
That’s hard to explain away.
Sharp doesn’t claim any team as his favorite. His affinity is for the numbers, whether for his handicapping site or for his algorithms. He said he would like other people to crunch the numbers even if it shows where he went wrong.
“Can you deny that the Patriots did not change dramatically in fumble rate since the 2006 season?” he asked. “Can you deny that the Pats are significantly better than the rest of the NFL since then?”
If no one can deny those two assertions, the question that raises looms as large as deflate-gate, if not larger. Winning the turnover battle is an enormous part of winning football games, and if the Patriots found a way to win the turnover battle, whether by deflating the ball or some other measure (or both), that indicates a turning point in the sport starting in 2006.
It's important to recognize that the Patriots' ability to hold onto the football isn't just about statistics. It reflects terrific preparation and execution, led by a future Hall of Fame coach and a future Hall of Fame quarterback. But this latest controversy has brought scrutiny to everything Pats-related – even a Brady quote that was innocuous in 2006.
“The thing is, every quarterback likes it a little bit different,” Brady said back then, arguing his case for every team being allowed to provide its own footballs at games. “Some like them blown up a little bit more, some like them a little more thin, some like them a little more new, some like them really broken in.”
Statistics, like footballs, are malleable. But Sharp is confident that although humans can change their story over time, numbers do not.
One of the strangest twists in the already strange saga of deflate-gate is the sudden star turn of a man who runs a gambling website when he’s not doing his day job. Warren Sharp is a 36-year-old dad who loves numbers and algorithms, and decided to apply some statistics to the Patriots when he heard about the football deflation investigation. What he found sent ripples through the sports world and got a few other statisticians pretty upset.
It also may have implications beyond Tom Brady and Bill Belichick.
Sharp’s idea was to look at fumbles. That led him to a more refined topic: how well the Patriots held onto the ball both before and after the 2006 season, which happened to be the year Brady and Peyton Manning pushed for a rule change which allowed each team to provide their own footballs for games.
“Something significant changed from 2006 to 2007 that allowed them to retain the football,” Sharp said by phone Tuesday, “and that continues today.”
According to Sharp’s calculations, the Patriots’ fumble rate was 42 touches per fumble from 2000 through 2006. That was about the league average. Since 2007, however, that rate has dropped dramatically, to 74 touches per fumble. Over that time, the Pats are the best team in the NFL at holding onto the ball, even including dome teams.
“Based upon the data we’ve collected and the probabilities, it definitely is extremely unlikely that their ability to hold onto the football would change so much and be as far away from the rest of the NFL,” Sharp said. “It’s extremely unlikely.”
..
View photo
.
LeGarrette Blount (29) reacts after scoring a touchdown in the AFC championship game. (USAT)
We all know correlation does not mean causation, but this is one whopper of a correlation. The Patriots were basically an average team in terms of fumbling the football, and then Brady pushed for a rule change, and then the Patriots suddenly become wizards at football control. And all this would be cool or quirky if we weren’t embroiled in a nationwide debate over whether the Patriots altered the footballs they bring to games.
This finding trickles down to individual players, in some cases. Kevin Faulk was drafted by the Patriots in 1999 and played in New England through 2011. Up until the 2007 season, Faulk had 23 fumbles. After that point, he had two. Danny Amendola had 10 fumbles in four seasons with the Rams, then came to New England and lost the ball only once in two years.
As for Brady himself, he had 59 fumbles in his first six seasons, and only 37 in his most recent seven seasons.
“Did Bill Belichick teach players anything differently starting that season?” Sharp asked. “Something clearly happened.”
What does all this prove? Well, nothing definitively. Sharp himself admitted there is no ironclad conclusion from his data. Fumbles are somewhat random occurrences. Some fumbles happen on kickoffs, which use different footballs by league rules. And obviously the weather is different in each game. Playing in Miami in the heat of early September is far different from playing in Green Bay in December.
But Sharp is well aware of all that and yet he insists the findings can’t possibly be happenstance.
“This is definitely not random fluctuation,” he said.
Unsurprisingly, more than a few Patriots fans are not buying it. “Statistical hocus pocus,” rants one fan on Facebook. But Sharp’s analysis is also under fire from a couple of other statisticians.
“It’s 98 percent bunk,” said Greg Matthews, an assistant professor of statistics at Loyola University in Chicago. “He basically reached a conclusion already and he wants to find the most sensational stats he can find.”
Matthews said he found a “tremendous amount” of flaws in Sharp’s breakdown, among them the touches-per-fumble method of lining up the Patriots against the rest of the league.
“I refute the fact that the Patriots are an outlier,” Matthews said. “I refute that fact definitely. Are they better after [2006]? Possibly, but it’s not outrageously better.”
Tom Brady looks on during a New England Patriots practice on Wednesday. (Getty)
Matthews admits he’s a Patriots fan, though he insisted, “This has nothing to do with Patriots.”
His own portrayal of the statistics, however, doesn’t differ all that largely from Sharp’s. Matthews gives the Patriots’ fumbles-per-100-carries from 2007 through 2014 as 0.63, and the next best team is St. Louis (a dome team) with 0.71. The league average is 1.0. That still sets the Pats apart, if not as starkly. It still sets 2006 as a demarcation point.
Another leader in the statistic community, Brian Burke of Advanced Football Analytics, drew this conclusion in a recent post after looking at fumble rates (excluding dome teams):
“Whoa. In this case NE is at the top of the list, and the next best team is a distant second. Notice how the second team [Baltimore] through the second to last team [Philadelphia] have rates that are within 1 or 2 plays of each other. NE, however, is better than the next best team by 20 plays per fumble.”
That’s hard to explain away.
Sharp doesn’t claim any team as his favorite. His affinity is for the numbers, whether for his handicapping site or for his algorithms. He said he would like other people to crunch the numbers even if it shows where he went wrong.
“Can you deny that the Patriots did not change dramatically in fumble rate since the 2006 season?” he asked. “Can you deny that the Pats are significantly better than the rest of the NFL since then?”
If no one can deny those two assertions, the question that raises looms as large as deflate-gate, if not larger. Winning the turnover battle is an enormous part of winning football games, and if the Patriots found a way to win the turnover battle, whether by deflating the ball or some other measure (or both), that indicates a turning point in the sport starting in 2006.
It's important to recognize that the Patriots' ability to hold onto the football isn't just about statistics. It reflects terrific preparation and execution, led by a future Hall of Fame coach and a future Hall of Fame quarterback. But this latest controversy has brought scrutiny to everything Pats-related – even a Brady quote that was innocuous in 2006.
“The thing is, every quarterback likes it a little bit different,” Brady said back then, arguing his case for every team being allowed to provide its own footballs at games. “Some like them blown up a little bit more, some like them a little more thin, some like them a little more new, some like them really broken in.”
Statistics, like footballs, are malleable. But Sharp is confident that although humans can change their story over time, numbers do not.
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#1350
Senior Moderator
^ HATERS GONNA HATE! Lies!
#1351
Old Man Yelling at Clouds
That's an interesting article about the fumble rates. Another point - I had Brady as my fantasy QB in 2007 where he nearly single-handedly won me the league championship. He WENT OFF that year. Would be interesting to compare Brady's throwing statistics crossing that 2006/2007 boundary as well......
#1352
Aww cheater Pete Carroll is upset about steroid testing. His USC memory is short
Seattle Seahawks miffed over HGH tests - ESPN
Seattle Seahawks miffed over HGH tests - ESPN
#1353
Senior Moderator
One of my colleagues claims she heard a design engineer exclaim this out of frustration with her results. Seems fitting.
Originally Posted by Some Masshole
I DON'T BELIEVE IN STATISTICS!!!
Last edited by oo7spy; 01-29-2015 at 09:31 PM.
#1354
Suzuka Master
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NBP04TL4ME (01-30-2015)
#1355
Senior Moderator
^ He cheated in all of them.
<--- Hater gonna hate.
<--- Hater gonna hate.
#1356
Team Owner
That's an interesting article about the fumble rates. Another point - I had Brady as my fantasy QB in 2007 where he nearly single-handedly won me the league championship. He WENT OFF that year. Would be interesting to compare Brady's throwing statistics crossing that 2006/2007 boundary as well......
#1357
Suzuka Master
#1358
Old Man Yelling at Clouds
"You hate the Patriots because they are good and you are jealous". Really.
I don't hate the Patriots by any stretch. They've put together an ability to field competitive teams year after year and it has nothing to do with the ball pressure or filming other teams. They deserve a place in the conversation of great dynasty teams. I've no problem giving a team their due. The fact they seem to live in a constant grey area of the rules is annoying, but you can't make an argument they are that much worse than any other team.
That said, what's annoying about the Patriots is articles like this - their over-inflated sense of self importance. As if the rest of us sit around on Sundays talking about how frustrated we are the Patriots are so good. The ONLY reason these balls are being talked about is because the Patriots are in the Superbowl. Period. If the Pats lose that game, inflate gate is a footnote. Nobody outside of a 100 mile radius of New England is talking about it. It's getting attention because they are one of the teams in the Superbowl, not because we're all just soooooooo jealous.
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NBP04TL4ME (01-30-2015)
#1359
Suzuka Master
At this point I don't care if you love, hate or care less about the Patriots. That article above is just to prove how absolutely insane this has gotten over the last 2 weeks
It's a sport. Teams have cheated and will continue to cheat for the rest of time. Just enjoy the most hyped up Superbowl since 07 (solely based on there being a potential undefeated team)
It's a sport. Teams have cheated and will continue to cheat for the rest of time. Just enjoy the most hyped up Superbowl since 07 (solely based on there being a potential undefeated team)
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NBP04TL4ME (01-30-2015)
#1360
Stay Out Of the Left Lane
Join Date: Oct 2003
Location: SE Mass --- > Central VA --- > SE Mass
Age: 57
Posts: 8,983
Received 1,241 Likes
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1Louder -
Well said. The Pats are a good team outside of this whole deflate gate thing. As you pointed out they have managed to field a competitive winning team every year for the past decade plus. There aren't a lot of egos and although they do have their star players, it typically varies and changes from week to week. Can be an offensive player, a special teams player or someone on the defense. They draft, trade and groom players as part of a culture of "a team." They manage their salary cap very well. Brady renogotiates his salary and long term deals for the benefit of the team to remain under the salary cap and bring on new and different talent. And before anyone says anything - I fully understand he is making plenty of $$$. Not to mentione his wife makes 10x what he does.
One could argue they are successful because of cheating, but there are entirely too many variables to manage to have the longevity of success - ironically since Pete Carroll left NE. And as much as I would like to agree with your 100 mile assessment, unfortunately I don't believe that is the case.
Doom -
You don't remember Brady prior to the 2007 season because he is a good steady QB. He typically doesn't light up any one fantasy sports category. A lot of his stats are because of longevity of success. Well that and 3 SB rings. I certainly wouldn't want him to be traded for Jay Cutler He is a student of the game and enjoys it.
As I have said before this whole deflate-gate thing has been a detractor from all of this week's activities and am hoping for a good game on Sunday. I heard earlier today that supposedly Goodell is going to hold a press conference at 1:00 PM EST. No matter what he says, I'm sure it is just going to stir the pot even more. I also heard a snippet on the local news that said the NFL has no records of the inflation of the footballs at the AFC game. So that is good news - NOT!! I would much rather the Pats be found guilty or innocent as opposed to the spectre of continued cheating.
Well said. The Pats are a good team outside of this whole deflate gate thing. As you pointed out they have managed to field a competitive winning team every year for the past decade plus. There aren't a lot of egos and although they do have their star players, it typically varies and changes from week to week. Can be an offensive player, a special teams player or someone on the defense. They draft, trade and groom players as part of a culture of "a team." They manage their salary cap very well. Brady renogotiates his salary and long term deals for the benefit of the team to remain under the salary cap and bring on new and different talent. And before anyone says anything - I fully understand he is making plenty of $$$. Not to mentione his wife makes 10x what he does.
One could argue they are successful because of cheating, but there are entirely too many variables to manage to have the longevity of success - ironically since Pete Carroll left NE. And as much as I would like to agree with your 100 mile assessment, unfortunately I don't believe that is the case.
Doom -
You don't remember Brady prior to the 2007 season because he is a good steady QB. He typically doesn't light up any one fantasy sports category. A lot of his stats are because of longevity of success. Well that and 3 SB rings. I certainly wouldn't want him to be traded for Jay Cutler He is a student of the game and enjoys it.
As I have said before this whole deflate-gate thing has been a detractor from all of this week's activities and am hoping for a good game on Sunday. I heard earlier today that supposedly Goodell is going to hold a press conference at 1:00 PM EST. No matter what he says, I'm sure it is just going to stir the pot even more. I also heard a snippet on the local news that said the NFL has no records of the inflation of the footballs at the AFC game. So that is good news - NOT!! I would much rather the Pats be found guilty or innocent as opposed to the spectre of continued cheating.