The "official" housing bubble thread
11-27-2005, 08:16 PM
#361
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Originally Posted by F900
Tell me about it....
I'm closing on a Condo next for for $250K here in Ft lauderdale, last week mine was apprased at $262...prices are crazy here in S Florida.
I'm closing on a Condo next for for $250K here in Ft lauderdale, last week mine was apprased at $262...prices are crazy here in S Florida.
Yours might be the exception but lately appraisals in FL have been coming in lower.
11-28-2005, 07:05 PM
#364
I feel the need...
Originally Posted by dallison
i am hoping that it will slow down enough to buy a house in teh spring
If you're looking for an existing home, the best time to pick off a desperate seller is winter. You'll obviously have more selection though, if you wait for spring.
U.S. Existing Home Sales Fall More Than Forecast
2005-11-28 14:43 (New York)
By Carlos Torres
Nov. 28 (Bloomberg) -- Rising mortgage rates and
skyrocketing prices put home-buying out of reach for more
Americans in October, a new report showed.
Sales of previously owned U.S. homes fell a greater-than-
expected 2.7 percent last month to a 7.09 million annual rate,
the slowest since March, the National Association of Realtors
said today in Washington. The number of unsold homes was the
highest since April 1986.
Housing affordability, already at a 14-year low last
quarter, will continue to drop and deprive the economy of a
source of strength in coming months, economists said. Today's
report showed the median price rose about 17 percent over the
past year to $218,000, the biggest jump in 26 years. The average
30-year fixed mortgage rate exceeded 6 percent in October and
has kept rising since then.
``The peak in home sales activity is behind us,'' said
Richard DeKaser, chief economist at National City Corp. in
Cleveland. ``So far, it's a gentle trek down.'' Housing ``will
present a drag for the economy,'' DeKaser said.
Existing home sales fell from September's 7.29 million
annual rate. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg News forecast home
resales would fall to a 7.2 million annual pace from September's
previously reported 7.28 million pace, according the median of
54 estimates. The pace reached a record 7.35 million in June.
Effect on Economy
The housing industry accounts for only about 5 percent of
the U.S. economy and yet generated half of the growth in this
year's first six months and more than half of the private jobs
added since 2001, Merrill Lynch & Co. said in an August report.
Resales, which account for about 85 percent of the
residential real estate market, are tabulated at contract
closings and reflect buying decisions made a month or two
earlier. New-home sales are counted when a contract is signed,
making them a better gauge of current activity, economists said.
The report on new home purchases is due tomorrow from the
Commerce Department. Sales are forecast to fall to a 1.2 million
annual pace, from 1.222 million in September, according to the
median estimate of economists surveyed by Bloomberg News.
Homebuilder shares fell today. A Standard & Poor's index of
16 builders including Centex Corp. and D.R. Horton Inc. dropped
29.5 points, or 3.2 percent, as of 2:35 p.m. in New York.
Sales of previously owned homes would have been even weaker
last month had it not been for gains the areas of Baton Rouge,
Louisiana, and Houston, reflecting demand from people displaced
by Hurricane Katrina. The Realtors group said sales would have
declined 3.2 percent in October to a 7.06 million pace excluding
sales in response to the hurricane.
Median Price
``The housing sector has likely passed its peak,'' said
David Lereah, chief economist at the National Association of
Realtors, during a press conference. ``The boom is winding down
to an expansion. Housing activity is still healthy.''
The median price rose to $218,000 last month from $187,000
in October 2004, the Realtors' group said. The year-over-year
increase was the biggest since July 1979. The median price was
$213,000 in September.
Sales of single-family homes fell 2.5 percent to a 6.23
million annual pace in October. Sales of condos and co-ops fell
4.4 percent to an 862,000 annual pace.
``The evidence keeps piling up that the housing market is
slowing moderately,'' said Scott Anderson, senior economist at
Wells Fargo & Co. in Minneapolis, Minnesota, in an interview.
``We certainly think housing will weigh on GDP growth next
year.''
Supply of Homes
Sales were lower in all four regions. They dropped 7.4
percent in the Northeast to a 1.12 million-unit pace, 1.9
percent in the Midwest to a rate of 1.58 million units, 1.8
percent in the South to 2.76 million units, and 1.2 percent in
the West to 1.64 million units.
The supply of homes available for sale, another gauge of
housing demand, rose to 2.87 million in October from 2.77
million. Supply represented 4.9 months' worth at the current
sales pace, up from 4.6 months' worth the previous month.
The rate on a 30-year fixed mortgage averaged 6.07 percent
in October, the highest monthly average since June 2004, from
5.77 percent a month earlier, according to Freddie Mac, the No.
2 purchaser of home loans behind Fannie Mae. The rate reached a
two-year high of 6.37 percent two weeks ago.
Rising rates and higher prices caused the Realtors' group
affordability index to drop to 117.8 in the third quarter, the
lowest since the third quarter of 1991. Still, figures greater
than 100 suggest households have the income needed to purchase a
property at the median home price.
Outlook for Growth
``The housing market had remained robust, although a
slowing in house price gains in some areas and recent declines
in home equity lending at banks could be indicating that the
long-expected cooling in the housing market was near,'' Federal
Reserve policy makers said in the minutes of their Nov. 1
meeting released last week.
A more pronounced slowing in housing than most economists
expect could be the catalyst for the central bank to lower their
interest rate target in early 2007, according to economists at
Goldman, Sachs & Co. in New York. The Fed targets the rate at
which banks lend money to each other overnight, also called the
federal funds rate.
A slowdown in housing could slice as much as 1.5 percentage
points from economic growth in the next couple of years,
according to a Nov. 18 report by Goldman Sachs economists Jan
Hatzius and Monica Fuentes. ``This would probably be enough to
persuade Fed officials to cut their federal funds target'' in
2007, said Hatzius and Fuentes.
The risks to the economy posed by the housing market aren't
lost on Ben Bernanke, the White House nominee to succeed Alan
Greenspan as Fed chairman.
Fed
A slowdown in housing prices that isn't ``too sharp,''
``should be consistent with the modest cooling of growth that
many forecasters expect over the next year or so,'' Bernanke
said last week in written responses to questions posed by
Senator Jim Bunning, the lone Banking Committee member to vote
against his nomination. A sharper slowdown, which he said is
less likely, ``would have a larger effect on the growth of real
output.''
``It's not the beginning of the end as we see it,'' said
Joel Rassman, chief financial officer of Toll Brothers Inc., the
largest U.S. builder of luxury homes, in a Nov. 14 interview.
``Most of our markets are strong. They're just not as strong as
last year.''
Earlier this month Toll lowered its forecast of the number
of homes it will sell in fiscal 2006 to 9,500 to 10,200, from
the 10,200 to 10,600 it projected on Aug. 25.
source: bloomberg.com
12-02-2005, 09:35 AM
#365
Senior Moderator
You can't get away from fundemental supply and demand economics ....
Sales slide for homes of US may signal end of boom
'Housing sector has likely passed its peak'
WASHINGTON -- Sales of existing homes in the U.S. slowed in October and the inventory of unsold houses rose to the highest level in nearly 20 years, a trade group said yesterday in a report confirming the end of the nation's housing boom.
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servl.../TPRealestate/
Sales slide for homes of US may signal end of boom
'Housing sector has likely passed its peak'
WASHINGTON -- Sales of existing homes in the U.S. slowed in October and the inventory of unsold houses rose to the highest level in nearly 20 years, a trade group said yesterday in a report confirming the end of the nation's housing boom.
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servl.../TPRealestate/
12-02-2005, 09:58 AM
#366
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from ^
John Lonski, chief economist at Moody's Investors Service, said prices remained on the "high side," a resilience that could help limit the economic cost of a cool-down in the nation's housing market.
"Despite the slippage in home sales there is no evidence of any nationwide softening of home prices, though it may be difficult to avoid some slippage in the price of residential real estate if only because a slower pace of home sales is likely for 2006," Mr. Lonski said.
the sky is falling
oh, no it isn't
John Lonski, chief economist at Moody's Investors Service, said prices remained on the "high side," a resilience that could help limit the economic cost of a cool-down in the nation's housing market.
"Despite the slippage in home sales there is no evidence of any nationwide softening of home prices, though it may be difficult to avoid some slippage in the price of residential real estate if only because a slower pace of home sales is likely for 2006," Mr. Lonski said.
the sky is falling
oh, no it isn't
12-02-2005, 10:38 AM
#367
Houses Won't Depreciate?
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those sky high prices make sales very slow, and in general low demand will brings prices down. The ones who are gonna be fawked are the realtors, with slow or no comissions.
12-08-2005, 12:14 PM
#368
Houses Won't Depreciate?
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Housing Slowdown May Claim 800,000 Jobs
"Seasonal Jobs", season ends soon.
http://www.sun-sentinel.com/business...ostemailedlink
LOS ANGELES -- A sustained decline will hit the U.S. housing market next year, costing the nation as many as 800,000 jobs, according to a new economic report released Wednesday.
The slowdown is likely to last several years, with as many as 500,000 construction jobs and 300,000 financial sector positions lost, the quarterly Anderson Forecast predicted.
"We expect housing to start slowing the economy this quarter or the next," said Edward Leamer, director of the study done at the University of California, Los Angeles.
"Some jobs in manufacturing might well disappear as a result of weakness in housing, but this may be offset by jobs brought home or not lost to foreign competition," he wrote.
The forecast said eight of the last 10 economic recessions were started by housing market slowdowns. Though the coming cooldown will cause a drag on the nation's economy, it will fall short of triggering a recession, the forecast said.
The report cited several signs that the decline could be under way:
* New construction of housing in October was down 5.6 percent from the previous month, with new construction of single-family housing accounting for a 3.7 percent dip.
* New home sales have declined.
* Applications for home mortgages have trended downward since late September as rates increased.
* In some regions, homes are remaining unsold longer and the pace of housing construction is outpacing population growth, which could spell a decline in demand.
"On all these grounds, we believe housing is due for a sustained decline," economist Michael Bazdarich wrote in the forecast. "The remaining questions are how hard the fall will be and when it will begin."
The forecast for California, where housing prices lead the nation and housing-related jobs have been driving economic growth, resembles the national outlook.
Economist Ryan Ratcliff said the state's housing market will see a slowdown in spending along with job losses in construction and related sectors.
He expects California home prices to plateau while sales and new construction see moderate decreases during two years of weak growth.
"If the housing market slows more than we are expecting, a recession is not out of the question," Ratcliff wrote.
Counties showing signs of a cooldown include San Francisco, where housing sales have been off 20 percent since peaking in June, 2004. San Diego County has seen sales slow about 13 percent, while monthly price gains have plummeted to low single digits.
California's job picture has been lackluster in recent months. The rate of employment growth has slowed after a significant number of jobs were added in July and August.
Construction has remained the fastest-growing sector. But Ratcliff predicts a slowdown in construction activity through 2007 and moderate construction job losses.
The slowdown is likely to last several years, with as many as 500,000 construction jobs and 300,000 financial sector positions lost, the quarterly Anderson Forecast predicted.
"We expect housing to start slowing the economy this quarter or the next," said Edward Leamer, director of the study done at the University of California, Los Angeles.
"Some jobs in manufacturing might well disappear as a result of weakness in housing, but this may be offset by jobs brought home or not lost to foreign competition," he wrote.
The forecast said eight of the last 10 economic recessions were started by housing market slowdowns. Though the coming cooldown will cause a drag on the nation's economy, it will fall short of triggering a recession, the forecast said.
The report cited several signs that the decline could be under way:
* New construction of housing in October was down 5.6 percent from the previous month, with new construction of single-family housing accounting for a 3.7 percent dip.
* New home sales have declined.
* Applications for home mortgages have trended downward since late September as rates increased.
* In some regions, homes are remaining unsold longer and the pace of housing construction is outpacing population growth, which could spell a decline in demand.
"On all these grounds, we believe housing is due for a sustained decline," economist Michael Bazdarich wrote in the forecast. "The remaining questions are how hard the fall will be and when it will begin."
The forecast for California, where housing prices lead the nation and housing-related jobs have been driving economic growth, resembles the national outlook.
Economist Ryan Ratcliff said the state's housing market will see a slowdown in spending along with job losses in construction and related sectors.
He expects California home prices to plateau while sales and new construction see moderate decreases during two years of weak growth.
"If the housing market slows more than we are expecting, a recession is not out of the question," Ratcliff wrote.
Counties showing signs of a cooldown include San Francisco, where housing sales have been off 20 percent since peaking in June, 2004. San Diego County has seen sales slow about 13 percent, while monthly price gains have plummeted to low single digits.
California's job picture has been lackluster in recent months. The rate of employment growth has slowed after a significant number of jobs were added in July and August.
Construction has remained the fastest-growing sector. But Ratcliff predicts a slowdown in construction activity through 2007 and moderate construction job losses.
12-08-2005, 12:56 PM
#369
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Originally Posted by zamo
December 7, 2005
Hot Housing Market Still 'Cruising'
Although there are signs of slowing in certain regions, a real estate-led recession in California is unlikely, a UCLA forecast now says.
By Annette Haddad, Times Staff Writer
UCLA Anderson Forecast, among the first economic prognosticators to proclaim that California's housing boom was peaking, is now singing a slightly different tune.
The housing boom isn't quite over yet, it says.
Although signs of slowing are starting to crop up in certain regions, "there is lack of convincing evidence of a slowdown in the big picture," according to UCLA's quarterly forecast on California's economy to be released today.
Southern California "is one part of the state that's got some zip in it," said Ryan Ratcliff, an economist and author of the latest forecast. "We're not accelerating but we are still cruising along at 80 to 90 miles an hour."
However, the state's housing market will probably begin to slow over the next two years. That would lead to a loss of 2% of the jobs in construction and other real estate occupations and force Californians who have tapped into their homes' equity to rein in spending, Ratcliff said.
Such a scenario points to "anemic" growth for the state's economy in 2006-07, but not a full-blown recession, he said.
Ratcliff's view contrasts with previous UCLA forecasts that pointed to a possible real estate-led recession. With so much of the state's economy dependent on the housing sector, they argued, signs of deceleration were cause for concern.
The Anderson Forecast, best known nationally for having accurately predicted the 2001 recession, has long argued that real estate prices in California and the U.S. are unsustainable, partly because property values have climbed far faster than personal incomes.
As recently as September, UCLA Anderson Forecast economist Christopher Thornberg said California's housing boom appeared to be peaking, and the resulting slowdown was expected to produce weak economic growth over the next two years and a possible recession by the end of 2007.
In researching the latest report, Ratcliff said he wanted to take "a deeper look at the data before proclaiming the end of the real estate boom." His conclusion: It depends on whether you see the glass as half empty or half full. Ratcliff falls into the half-full camp.
He found that the year-over-year rate of home-price appreciation was no longer growing in the Bay Area and was growing slower in Southern California. But price changes are still running about 18% above year-ago levels. That suggested to him that although the pace of price growth may be slowing, "we're still a long way from prices flattening out."
That analysis also applies to home sales, he said. Looking at seasonally adjusted sales for both regions, "you might see a plateau starting about March of 2004, or even the beginnings of a decline if you like your glasses half empty," Ratcliff said.
"But looking back over the entire graph, there have been several instances since 2001 where sales have flattened out for a few months, only to pick up again."
Despite his optimism, several counties show more definitive signs of cooling off. Sales in San Francisco County are off 20% from their June 2004 peak, and prices are down 5% from their May high. San Diego County's market has lost steam as well, but price increases have leveled off to a flat rate of growth.
The two counties' housing markets differ because of jobs, Ratcliff found. Areas with severe job losses also experienced bigger home-price declines. San Francisco saw 4% of its information jobs disappear since January, whereas San Diego has not had any significant job losses.
The strength of the job market will determine whether California's real estate market takes a hard fall or finds a soft landing, Ratcliff said. He predicts a soft landing, with Southern California and other regions eventually following San Diego's path — home prices leveling off and sales ticking down moderately.
In past recessions, jobs in both the construction and durable manufacturing sectors had to contract before the economy tanked, the forecast said. Construction remains the fastest growing sector year to date at 5.8%, and now accounts for 6.2% of employment in California. That's almost the same proportion as durable manufacturing jobs in the state.
"The key reason why there will be more of an economic slowdown than a recession is that you usually need two sectors" to show significant job loss, Ratcliff said. This time, if only construction jobs contract at the 2% rate he is predicting, that wouldn't trigger a severe downturn, he said.
The housing downturn of the early 1990s was set off by massive job losses. Between 1990 and 1993, California lost 510,000 jobs. Of those, 52% were in manufacturing and 36% were in construction.
California's job picture has been lackluster in recent months. The rate of employment growth has slowed after a significant number of jobs were added in July and August, Ratcliff said.
But other economic signposts help support Ratcliff's view of the glass half full for the state's economy. Personal income and taxable sales were up 8% and 6.4% year-over-year, respectively, in the second quarter.
As for the national economy, Edward Leamer, director of the UCLA Anderson Forecast, expects the U.S. housing market to start to slow next year and construction and real estate-related jobs to contract. But the outlook for manufacturing jobs is positive.
"Without significant job loss in manufacturing, we are not likely to have a recession-level elevation in joblessness," Leamer said in his report on the U.S. economy.
Hot Housing Market Still 'Cruising'
Although there are signs of slowing in certain regions, a real estate-led recession in California is unlikely, a UCLA forecast now says.
By Annette Haddad, Times Staff Writer
UCLA Anderson Forecast, among the first economic prognosticators to proclaim that California's housing boom was peaking, is now singing a slightly different tune.
The housing boom isn't quite over yet, it says.
Although signs of slowing are starting to crop up in certain regions, "there is lack of convincing evidence of a slowdown in the big picture," according to UCLA's quarterly forecast on California's economy to be released today.
Southern California "is one part of the state that's got some zip in it," said Ryan Ratcliff, an economist and author of the latest forecast. "We're not accelerating but we are still cruising along at 80 to 90 miles an hour."
However, the state's housing market will probably begin to slow over the next two years. That would lead to a loss of 2% of the jobs in construction and other real estate occupations and force Californians who have tapped into their homes' equity to rein in spending, Ratcliff said.
Such a scenario points to "anemic" growth for the state's economy in 2006-07, but not a full-blown recession, he said.
Ratcliff's view contrasts with previous UCLA forecasts that pointed to a possible real estate-led recession. With so much of the state's economy dependent on the housing sector, they argued, signs of deceleration were cause for concern.
The Anderson Forecast, best known nationally for having accurately predicted the 2001 recession, has long argued that real estate prices in California and the U.S. are unsustainable, partly because property values have climbed far faster than personal incomes.
As recently as September, UCLA Anderson Forecast economist Christopher Thornberg said California's housing boom appeared to be peaking, and the resulting slowdown was expected to produce weak economic growth over the next two years and a possible recession by the end of 2007.
In researching the latest report, Ratcliff said he wanted to take "a deeper look at the data before proclaiming the end of the real estate boom." His conclusion: It depends on whether you see the glass as half empty or half full. Ratcliff falls into the half-full camp.
He found that the year-over-year rate of home-price appreciation was no longer growing in the Bay Area and was growing slower in Southern California. But price changes are still running about 18% above year-ago levels. That suggested to him that although the pace of price growth may be slowing, "we're still a long way from prices flattening out."
That analysis also applies to home sales, he said. Looking at seasonally adjusted sales for both regions, "you might see a plateau starting about March of 2004, or even the beginnings of a decline if you like your glasses half empty," Ratcliff said.
"But looking back over the entire graph, there have been several instances since 2001 where sales have flattened out for a few months, only to pick up again."
Despite his optimism, several counties show more definitive signs of cooling off. Sales in San Francisco County are off 20% from their June 2004 peak, and prices are down 5% from their May high. San Diego County's market has lost steam as well, but price increases have leveled off to a flat rate of growth.
The two counties' housing markets differ because of jobs, Ratcliff found. Areas with severe job losses also experienced bigger home-price declines. San Francisco saw 4% of its information jobs disappear since January, whereas San Diego has not had any significant job losses.
The strength of the job market will determine whether California's real estate market takes a hard fall or finds a soft landing, Ratcliff said. He predicts a soft landing, with Southern California and other regions eventually following San Diego's path — home prices leveling off and sales ticking down moderately.
In past recessions, jobs in both the construction and durable manufacturing sectors had to contract before the economy tanked, the forecast said. Construction remains the fastest growing sector year to date at 5.8%, and now accounts for 6.2% of employment in California. That's almost the same proportion as durable manufacturing jobs in the state.
"The key reason why there will be more of an economic slowdown than a recession is that you usually need two sectors" to show significant job loss, Ratcliff said. This time, if only construction jobs contract at the 2% rate he is predicting, that wouldn't trigger a severe downturn, he said.
The housing downturn of the early 1990s was set off by massive job losses. Between 1990 and 1993, California lost 510,000 jobs. Of those, 52% were in manufacturing and 36% were in construction.
California's job picture has been lackluster in recent months. The rate of employment growth has slowed after a significant number of jobs were added in July and August, Ratcliff said.
But other economic signposts help support Ratcliff's view of the glass half full for the state's economy. Personal income and taxable sales were up 8% and 6.4% year-over-year, respectively, in the second quarter.
As for the national economy, Edward Leamer, director of the UCLA Anderson Forecast, expects the U.S. housing market to start to slow next year and construction and real estate-related jobs to contract. But the outlook for manufacturing jobs is positive.
"Without significant job loss in manufacturing, we are not likely to have a recession-level elevation in joblessness," Leamer said in his report on the U.S. economy.
12-09-2005, 12:17 PM
#372
Senior Moderator
Originally Posted by BigPimp
^ not true, even if we take into a seasonal adjustment, sales are down and supply is up, year-over-year.
New construction of housing in October was down 5.6 percent from the previous month, with new construction of single-family housing accounting for a 3.7 percent dip.
* New home sales have declined.
* Applications for home mortgages have trended downward since late September as rates increased.
* New home sales have declined.
* Applications for home mortgages have trended downward since late September as rates increased.
None of the above has anything to do with "year over year". I still think next summer will be the true test of the market.
12-10-2005, 01:41 AM
#373
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There is no need to test anything. It' s pretty straight forward. In most places, the top tier of the market is very slow, while median homes are still ok. Growth will slow to about 5% on average as interest rates stablize.
12-13-2005, 05:58 PM
#374
Moderator Alumnus
The truth: Foreclosures are lower today than they were a year ago. Only 1.94 percent of personal loans are delinquent. And only 0.43 percent of home equity lines of credit are past due, meaning that 99.57 percent are paying the loans on time.
What about the slowdown in home sales? Isn't that surely a sign that the bubble is about to burst?
Well, according to the California Association of Realtors, it took 34 days to sell a house in October. A year ago, it took 33 days. Doesn't sound like the end of the world to me.
Speaking of the bubble, I'm tired of people trying to compare real estate today to the tech stock debacle of 2000. Bubbles occur when there is a mania. Investors back then were clamoring to buy any tech stocks at any price.
http://www.nctimes.com/articles/2005...2212_10_05.txt (full article)
What about the slowdown in home sales? Isn't that surely a sign that the bubble is about to burst?
Well, according to the California Association of Realtors, it took 34 days to sell a house in October. A year ago, it took 33 days. Doesn't sound like the end of the world to me.
Speaking of the bubble, I'm tired of people trying to compare real estate today to the tech stock debacle of 2000. Bubbles occur when there is a mania. Investors back then were clamoring to buy any tech stocks at any price.
http://www.nctimes.com/articles/2005...2212_10_05.txt (full article)
12-13-2005, 07:15 PM
#375
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The real test is going to be when people's 3-5 year fixed loans start adjusting or amortizing. Hopefully enough of them are smart enough to pay off some other bills before their house payment potentially goes up.
12-14-2005, 12:12 AM
#376
Houses Won't Depreciate?
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Originally Posted by Silver™
The truth: Foreclosures are lower today than they were a year ago. Only 1.94 percent of personal loans are delinquent. And only 0.43 percent of home equity lines of credit are past due, meaning that 99.57 percent are paying the loans on time.
What about the slowdown in home sales? Isn't that surely a sign that the bubble is about to burst?
Well, according to the California Association of Realtors, it took 34 days to sell a house in October. A year ago, it took 33 days. Doesn't sound like the end of the world to me.
Speaking of the bubble, I'm tired of people trying to compare real estate today to the tech stock debacle of 2000. Bubbles occur when there is a mania. Investors back then were clamoring to buy any tech stocks at any price.
http://www.nctimes.com/articles/2005...2212_10_05.txt (full article)
What about the slowdown in home sales? Isn't that surely a sign that the bubble is about to burst?
Well, according to the California Association of Realtors, it took 34 days to sell a house in October. A year ago, it took 33 days. Doesn't sound like the end of the world to me.
Speaking of the bubble, I'm tired of people trying to compare real estate today to the tech stock debacle of 2000. Bubbles occur when there is a mania. Investors back then were clamoring to buy any tech stocks at any price.
http://www.nctimes.com/articles/2005...2212_10_05.txt (full article)
Foreclosure is the absolute last step; many people get a buyer before even seeking a foreclosure.
Bubble is gona burst? Who knows, maybe the condo market in South Florida, but one thing is for sure, it is no longer a good investment to buy a property and rent it, as the mortgage payments will be higher than the rental fee. No tenant, big problems.
12-19-2005, 03:13 PM
#377
Outnumbered at home
Interesting article on projected outlooks for a number of cities.
Vegas big loser here . Projected -7.9% in 06 and -5% in 07.
http://money.cnn.com/pf/features/lis...owth_forecast/
Vegas big loser here . Projected -7.9% in 06 and -5% in 07.
http://money.cnn.com/pf/features/lis...owth_forecast/
12-20-2005, 05:43 PM
#378
I feel the need...
Fed Says Interest-Only Mortgages Pose Risk to System
2005-12-20 14:47 (New York)
By Will Edwards
Dec. 20 (Bloomberg) -- The U.S. Federal Reserve said
interest-only and other nontraditional mortgages pose a threat to
the financial system and urged the nation's banks to tighten
lending standards.
``The agencies are concerned that these practices can
present unique risks that institutions must appropriately
manage,'' the Fed said in a statement with other national bank
regulators. ``They are also concerned that these products and
practices are being offered to a wider spectrum of borrowers.''
Interest-only home loans accounted for 23 percent of all
U.S. mortgages from January through June, up from 17 percent a
year earlier, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association.
Countrywide Financial Corp., the biggest U.S. mortgage lender,
said in October that it made $27 billion in interest-only loans
during the third quarter, an increase of 50 percent.
Banks are offering more so-called hybrid mortgages, feeding
demand from buyers who barely qualify to purchase homes at prices
inflated by a real-estate boom. An interest-only mortgage allows
the borrower to defer principal payments to a later date,
reducing the monthly cost of carrying the loan.
``Some tightening of underwriting standards, some moral
suasion from the Fed would be nice and in fact we're seeing some
of that,'' Paul McCulley, a managing director and fund manager at
Pacific Investment Management Co., said in an interview today
from Newport Beach, California.
Greenspan Warning
A slump in housing price gains may lead to losses for both
borrowers and lenders, Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan said in a
speech to the American Bankers Association in September.
``In the event of a widespread cooling in house prices,
these borrowers, and the institutions that service them, could be
exposed to significant losses,'' Greenspan said.
Rising mortgage rates and prices put home buying out of
reach for more Americans in October, a report from the National
Association of Realtors showed last month. Sales of previously
owned homes fell 2.7 percent to a 7.09 million annual rate, the
slowest since March.
Home sales were buoyed in part in recent years by the
proliferation of riskier hybrid mortgages, said David Lereah, the
Washington-based group's chief economist. Americans have been
overextending to buy homes they can't afford, banking on rising
values to build equity, he said.
``It's about time,'' Lereah said. Such loans ``add the risk
of higher delinquency rates and possibly an increase in
foreclosure rates when these products adjust higher, if people
can't afford the new payment,'' he said.
The Fed offered a proposal for new lending standards and
requested comment from banks. Other regulatory agencies involved
in the proposed guidance were the Comptroller of the Currency,
the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation, the Office of Thrift
Supervision and the National Credit Union Administration.
source: bloomberg.com
2005-12-20 14:47 (New York)
By Will Edwards
Dec. 20 (Bloomberg) -- The U.S. Federal Reserve said
interest-only and other nontraditional mortgages pose a threat to
the financial system and urged the nation's banks to tighten
lending standards.
``The agencies are concerned that these practices can
present unique risks that institutions must appropriately
manage,'' the Fed said in a statement with other national bank
regulators. ``They are also concerned that these products and
practices are being offered to a wider spectrum of borrowers.''
Interest-only home loans accounted for 23 percent of all
U.S. mortgages from January through June, up from 17 percent a
year earlier, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association.
Countrywide Financial Corp., the biggest U.S. mortgage lender,
said in October that it made $27 billion in interest-only loans
during the third quarter, an increase of 50 percent.
Banks are offering more so-called hybrid mortgages, feeding
demand from buyers who barely qualify to purchase homes at prices
inflated by a real-estate boom. An interest-only mortgage allows
the borrower to defer principal payments to a later date,
reducing the monthly cost of carrying the loan.
``Some tightening of underwriting standards, some moral
suasion from the Fed would be nice and in fact we're seeing some
of that,'' Paul McCulley, a managing director and fund manager at
Pacific Investment Management Co., said in an interview today
from Newport Beach, California.
Greenspan Warning
A slump in housing price gains may lead to losses for both
borrowers and lenders, Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan said in a
speech to the American Bankers Association in September.
``In the event of a widespread cooling in house prices,
these borrowers, and the institutions that service them, could be
exposed to significant losses,'' Greenspan said.
Rising mortgage rates and prices put home buying out of
reach for more Americans in October, a report from the National
Association of Realtors showed last month. Sales of previously
owned homes fell 2.7 percent to a 7.09 million annual rate, the
slowest since March.
Home sales were buoyed in part in recent years by the
proliferation of riskier hybrid mortgages, said David Lereah, the
Washington-based group's chief economist. Americans have been
overextending to buy homes they can't afford, banking on rising
values to build equity, he said.
``It's about time,'' Lereah said. Such loans ``add the risk
of higher delinquency rates and possibly an increase in
foreclosure rates when these products adjust higher, if people
can't afford the new payment,'' he said.
The Fed offered a proposal for new lending standards and
requested comment from banks. Other regulatory agencies involved
in the proposed guidance were the Comptroller of the Currency,
the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation, the Office of Thrift
Supervision and the National Credit Union Administration.
source: bloomberg.com
12-21-2005, 07:34 AM
#379
Houses Won't Depreciate?
Thread Starter
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^^ It really doesnt take much science to realize that an adjustable rate would vary the monthly expenses.
The prime rate has been increased ~1.5 points in the last year, and that can continue increasing.
The prime rate has been increased ~1.5 points in the last year, and that can continue increasing.
12-26-2005, 12:23 PM
#380
Senior Moderator
Sales of new U.S. homes take biggest dip in years
WASHINGTON -- Sales of new U.S. homes plunged in November by the largest amount in nearly 12 years, providing the most dramatic evidence yet that the hot housing market over the last five years is starting to cool.
The Commerce Department reported yesterday that new single-family homes were sold at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.245 million units last month, a drop of 11.3 per cent from October, when sales had surged to a record high.
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servl.../TPRealestate/
WASHINGTON -- Sales of new U.S. homes plunged in November by the largest amount in nearly 12 years, providing the most dramatic evidence yet that the hot housing market over the last five years is starting to cool.
The Commerce Department reported yesterday that new single-family homes were sold at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.245 million units last month, a drop of 11.3 per cent from October, when sales had surged to a record high.
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servl.../TPRealestate/
12-29-2005, 11:09 AM
#381
Senior Moderator
Might not be the best time to buy in Naples 
Most overvalued housing markets
Latest analysis of 299 markets: See how your hometown ranks.
NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) - Sixty-five of the nation's 299 biggest real estate markets, representing 38 percent of all housing, are severely overpriced and subject to possible price corrections.
That's according to the latest (third quarter) Housing Market Analysis conducted by National City Corp, a financial holding company, in conjunction with Global Insight, a financial information provider.
The report named Naples, Florida as the most overvalued of all housing markets in the United States. A single-family, median-priced home there sells for $329,970, 84 percent more than what it should cost -- $180,956 -- according to the analysis.
National City arrives at its estimates of what the typical house in these markets should cost by examining the town's population densities, local interest rates, and income levels. It also factors in historical premiums and discounts for each area.
Other markets deemed wildly overpriced included Merced, California (by 77 percent), Salinas, California (75 percent), and Port St. Lucie, Florida (72 percent).
http://money.cnn.com/2005/12/29/real...kets/index.htm
Most overvalued housing markets
Latest analysis of 299 markets: See how your hometown ranks.
NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) - Sixty-five of the nation's 299 biggest real estate markets, representing 38 percent of all housing, are severely overpriced and subject to possible price corrections.
That's according to the latest (third quarter) Housing Market Analysis conducted by National City Corp, a financial holding company, in conjunction with Global Insight, a financial information provider.
The report named Naples, Florida as the most overvalued of all housing markets in the United States. A single-family, median-priced home there sells for $329,970, 84 percent more than what it should cost -- $180,956 -- according to the analysis.
National City arrives at its estimates of what the typical house in these markets should cost by examining the town's population densities, local interest rates, and income levels. It also factors in historical premiums and discounts for each area.
Other markets deemed wildly overpriced included Merced, California (by 77 percent), Salinas, California (75 percent), and Port St. Lucie, Florida (72 percent).
http://money.cnn.com/2005/12/29/real...kets/index.htm
12-29-2005, 03:46 PM
#383
Senior Moderator
My area is up 35% 
( Providence, RI-MA +35% )
But like the article said, there are signs that the validations are retuning to normal..
House like mine where over 300K at the beginning of last year, but you can buy something similiar to what I've got for around 270-290 now...
Looks like some of these local bubbles are starting to burst. If you bought in my area a year ago, and are looking to sell now, you might be in for a rude awaking...
( Providence, RI-MA +35% )But like the article said, there are signs that the validations are retuning to normal..
House like mine where over 300K at the beginning of last year, but you can buy something similiar to what I've got for around 270-290 now...
Looks like some of these local bubbles are starting to burst. If you bought in my area a year ago, and are looking to sell now, you might be in for a rude awaking...
12-30-2005, 12:19 AM
#384
Team Owner
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I'm currently looking to buy and I can definitely see prices starting to level off. However, I'm looking for a house to re-hab so the market for those houses is always competitive because they are the cheapest and in the shortest supply.
Looks like a found a winner tonight though. Planning on writing up the contract next week.
Looks like a found a winner tonight though. Planning on writing up the contract next week.
01-25-2006, 05:23 PM
#385
I feel the need...
U.S. Economy: Home Resales Fall to Lowest Since 2004 (Update1)
2006-01-25 12:58 (New York)
(Adds builders index in 14th paragraph.)
By Joe Richter
Jan. 25 (Bloomberg) -- Sales of previously owned U.S. homes
fell more than forecast last month to the lowest level since
March 2004, evidence of the end of a five-year housing boom that
will slow the economy.
Purchases declined 5.7 percent to a 6.6 million annual rate
from November's 7 million, the National Association of Realtors
said today in Washington. Sales, which have been slowing from
the record monthly pace reached in June, still finished 2005 at
an all-time high.
While economists forecast a gradual decline in sales,
December's slump raises the risk the slowdown could accelerate
and become an even bigger drag on the economy this year. The
drop puts Federal Reserve policy makers on notice that more
interest rate increases may not be necessary, according to
Christopher Low.
``Higher rates at this point risk turning the gentle
decline of the second half of 2005 into a housing rout in
2006,'' said Low, chief economist at FTN Financial in New York.
Recent housing reports ``make the most compelling argument for
the Fed to stop raising the overnight rate.''
A rise in the supply of homes relative to sales, less home
price appreciation and higher mortgage rates may also limit
refinancing, which has been helping drive spending and economic
growth, economists said. Stocks of home-improvement retailers
including Home Depot Inc. and homebuilders declined.
The pace of sales was slower than any forecast in a
Bloomberg News survey of 59 economists. Purchases were expected
to fall to a 6.87 million rate from a previously reported 6.97
million in November.
Prices
The Realtors group forecasts previously owned home sales to
slow by 5 percent in 2006 from a record 7.072 million last year.
``Housing added solidly to growth last year but don't
expect that to be repeated this year,'' said Joel Naroff,
president of Naroff Economic Advisors in Holland, Pennsylvania.
The median price rose 10.5 percent in December from a year
earlier to $211,000, the smallest year-over-year increase since
a 10.3 percent increase in March.
``Affordability will keep prices in check, but for as long
as rates stay near historic lows and employment remains strong,
I think pricing will stay strong,'' Bob Walters, chief economist
at Livonia, Michigan-based Quicken Loans Inc., said before the
report. ``We probably won't see the double-digit gains that
we've seen.''
The supply of homes for sale, another measure of housing
demand, fell to 2.796 million in December from 2.924 million the
month before. The bigger drop in sales caused the months' supply
of homes to rise to 5.1 months, the highest since April 2003,
from 5 months in November.
Stocks
Purchases of previously owned single-family homes fell 6.8
percent to a 5.72 million annual pace in December. Sales of
condos and co-ops rose 1.6 percent to an 877,000 rate.
Home resales fell 11 percent in the West, 7.2 percent in
the South and 2.6 percent in the Midwest. Sales in the Northeast
were unchanged.
Shares of D.R. Horton Inc., Centex Corp. and Pulte Homes
Inc. declined after today's report. A Standard & Poor's index of
16 builders fell to the lowest level of the year.
The average rate on a 30-year fixed mortgage was 6.27
percent in December, up from a 2005 low of 5.53 percent reached
July 1 and an average last year of 5.87 percent, according to
Freddie Mac, the No. 2 buyer of mortgages. The rate has stayed
above 6 percent since the middle of November.
Affordability
Housing affordability fell for a second straight month in
November, according to a report earlier this month from the
Realtors association. The group will report on December
affordability on Jan. 30.
The rise in prices and interest rates may explain why
mortgage applications fell during the second half of last year,
economists said. Applications to purchase homes fell 16 percent
from a 12-month high reached in June, while filings for
refinancing fell 45 percent from their yearly high, also reached
in June, according to figures from the Mortgage Bankers
Association.
Last week, the Commerce Department in Washington said
builders broke ground on fewer new homes in December than in
November. Fort Worth, Texas-based D.R. Horton Inc., the largest
U.S. homebuilder, said earnings in the quarter ended Dec. 31
rose 29 percent, the slowest pace in five years.
`Leveling Off'
Interest rates have receded this month on signs that
inflation is under control. That will help keep housing demand
from plunging, economists said. The average rate on a 30-year
mortgage fell to 6.10 percent last week, according to McLean,
Virginia-based Freddie Mac.
``I would not expect any precipitous decline in housing,''
Fed Bank of St. Louis President William Poole said in a Jan. 20
interview, citing continued low real interest rates. ``I would
expect it to just be leveling off, and you would see new sources
of growth from business fixed investment.''
U.S. economic growth will slow this year as consumer
spending and housing demand ebb, according to a Bloomberg survey
of economists taken Dec. 23 to Jan. 9. The U.S. economy will
grow at a 3.4 percent annual rate this year, down from an
estimated 3.6 percent in 2005, the survey showed.
A survey of businesses by the 12 Fed district banks last
week showed that there has been ``some cooling'' in the housing
market in areas including southern California and San Francisco,
even as other parts of the country, such as Oregon and Hawaii,
``have reportedly heated up further.''
Home resales, which account for about 85 percent of the
residential real estate market, are tabulated at contract
closings so they reflect buying decisions made a month or two
earlier. Purchases of new homes are counted when a contract is
first signed, making them a better gauge of current activity,
economists said.
--With reporting from Scott Lanman in Washington, Kathleen M.
Howley in Boston and Drew Ward in New York. Editor: Rohner (hvg)
Story illustration: To chart U.S. sales of previously owned
single-family houses, at an annual rate:
{ETSLTOTL <Index> GP <GO>}. To chart monthly changes in home
resales: {ETSLMOM <Index> GP <GO>}.
source: bloomberg.com
2006-01-25 12:58 (New York)
(Adds builders index in 14th paragraph.)
By Joe Richter
Jan. 25 (Bloomberg) -- Sales of previously owned U.S. homes
fell more than forecast last month to the lowest level since
March 2004, evidence of the end of a five-year housing boom that
will slow the economy.
Purchases declined 5.7 percent to a 6.6 million annual rate
from November's 7 million, the National Association of Realtors
said today in Washington. Sales, which have been slowing from
the record monthly pace reached in June, still finished 2005 at
an all-time high.
While economists forecast a gradual decline in sales,
December's slump raises the risk the slowdown could accelerate
and become an even bigger drag on the economy this year. The
drop puts Federal Reserve policy makers on notice that more
interest rate increases may not be necessary, according to
Christopher Low.
``Higher rates at this point risk turning the gentle
decline of the second half of 2005 into a housing rout in
2006,'' said Low, chief economist at FTN Financial in New York.
Recent housing reports ``make the most compelling argument for
the Fed to stop raising the overnight rate.''
A rise in the supply of homes relative to sales, less home
price appreciation and higher mortgage rates may also limit
refinancing, which has been helping drive spending and economic
growth, economists said. Stocks of home-improvement retailers
including Home Depot Inc. and homebuilders declined.
The pace of sales was slower than any forecast in a
Bloomberg News survey of 59 economists. Purchases were expected
to fall to a 6.87 million rate from a previously reported 6.97
million in November.
Prices
The Realtors group forecasts previously owned home sales to
slow by 5 percent in 2006 from a record 7.072 million last year.
``Housing added solidly to growth last year but don't
expect that to be repeated this year,'' said Joel Naroff,
president of Naroff Economic Advisors in Holland, Pennsylvania.
The median price rose 10.5 percent in December from a year
earlier to $211,000, the smallest year-over-year increase since
a 10.3 percent increase in March.
``Affordability will keep prices in check, but for as long
as rates stay near historic lows and employment remains strong,
I think pricing will stay strong,'' Bob Walters, chief economist
at Livonia, Michigan-based Quicken Loans Inc., said before the
report. ``We probably won't see the double-digit gains that
we've seen.''
The supply of homes for sale, another measure of housing
demand, fell to 2.796 million in December from 2.924 million the
month before. The bigger drop in sales caused the months' supply
of homes to rise to 5.1 months, the highest since April 2003,
from 5 months in November.
Stocks
Purchases of previously owned single-family homes fell 6.8
percent to a 5.72 million annual pace in December. Sales of
condos and co-ops rose 1.6 percent to an 877,000 rate.
Home resales fell 11 percent in the West, 7.2 percent in
the South and 2.6 percent in the Midwest. Sales in the Northeast
were unchanged.
Shares of D.R. Horton Inc., Centex Corp. and Pulte Homes
Inc. declined after today's report. A Standard & Poor's index of
16 builders fell to the lowest level of the year.
The average rate on a 30-year fixed mortgage was 6.27
percent in December, up from a 2005 low of 5.53 percent reached
July 1 and an average last year of 5.87 percent, according to
Freddie Mac, the No. 2 buyer of mortgages. The rate has stayed
above 6 percent since the middle of November.
Affordability
Housing affordability fell for a second straight month in
November, according to a report earlier this month from the
Realtors association. The group will report on December
affordability on Jan. 30.
The rise in prices and interest rates may explain why
mortgage applications fell during the second half of last year,
economists said. Applications to purchase homes fell 16 percent
from a 12-month high reached in June, while filings for
refinancing fell 45 percent from their yearly high, also reached
in June, according to figures from the Mortgage Bankers
Association.
Last week, the Commerce Department in Washington said
builders broke ground on fewer new homes in December than in
November. Fort Worth, Texas-based D.R. Horton Inc., the largest
U.S. homebuilder, said earnings in the quarter ended Dec. 31
rose 29 percent, the slowest pace in five years.
`Leveling Off'
Interest rates have receded this month on signs that
inflation is under control. That will help keep housing demand
from plunging, economists said. The average rate on a 30-year
mortgage fell to 6.10 percent last week, according to McLean,
Virginia-based Freddie Mac.
``I would not expect any precipitous decline in housing,''
Fed Bank of St. Louis President William Poole said in a Jan. 20
interview, citing continued low real interest rates. ``I would
expect it to just be leveling off, and you would see new sources
of growth from business fixed investment.''
U.S. economic growth will slow this year as consumer
spending and housing demand ebb, according to a Bloomberg survey
of economists taken Dec. 23 to Jan. 9. The U.S. economy will
grow at a 3.4 percent annual rate this year, down from an
estimated 3.6 percent in 2005, the survey showed.
A survey of businesses by the 12 Fed district banks last
week showed that there has been ``some cooling'' in the housing
market in areas including southern California and San Francisco,
even as other parts of the country, such as Oregon and Hawaii,
``have reportedly heated up further.''
Home resales, which account for about 85 percent of the
residential real estate market, are tabulated at contract
closings so they reflect buying decisions made a month or two
earlier. Purchases of new homes are counted when a contract is
first signed, making them a better gauge of current activity,
economists said.
--With reporting from Scott Lanman in Washington, Kathleen M.
Howley in Boston and Drew Ward in New York. Editor: Rohner (hvg)
Story illustration: To chart U.S. sales of previously owned
single-family houses, at an annual rate:
{ETSLTOTL <Index> GP <GO>}. To chart monthly changes in home
resales: {ETSLMOM <Index> GP <GO>}.
source: bloomberg.com
02-16-2006, 09:13 AM
#386
Houses Won't Depreciate?
Thread Starter
Join Date: Feb 2003
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Mr. Housing Bubble
Selling prices starting to come down as S. Florida real estate market slows
http://www.sun-sentinel.com/business...business-front
Linda Rudner of Boca Raton bought a two-bedroom condominium near the beach as an investment last year. She fixed it up, then listed it at $450,000 but later dropped her asking price to $399,000.
Rudner might have to come down even more, especially now that she can't count on Scripps Florida moving to Boca Raton and raising property values. She wants to sell soon and said she's done dabbling in real estate.
"I won't do it anymore," Rudner, 51, said Wednesday. "I'm too afraid. There's too much on the market."
The rising inventory of existing single-family homes is slowing sales across South Florida. Closings dropped during the fourth quarter, compared with the same period a year ago, the Florida Association of Realtors said Wednesday.
Sales fell by 35 percent in Broward County and 23 percent in Palm Beach County, the Orlando-based Realtors group said. Miami-Dade sales declined by 38 percent.
Broward's median sales price rose 26 percent to $377,300, while Palm Beach's median increased 23 percent to $415,800. Miami-Dade's median rose 29 percent to $375,900.
The median price means half the homes sold for more, half for less.
Although prices rose significantly compared with the fourth quarter of 2004, they have remained flat for the past six months, and experts say that will continue in 2006.
As inventory builds, homes sit on the market longer, causing antsy sellers to reduce their asking prices.
Steve Petranick, a Broward real estate agent for Douglas Elliman Florida, said he used to have only three or four properties to show clients looking for homes in the $200,000 to $300,000 range. Now he has 20 or more.
"There are a ton of listings," he said. "It's definitely become more of a buyer's market."
Ann DeFries, an agent with Balistreri Realty in Boca Raton, said Hurricane Wilma skewed the fourth-quarter numbers. The storm postponed sales after hitting South Florida on Oct. 24.
Still, the housing market has slowed, and sellers need to be more realistic, DeFries said.
"They can't compare their home to a home that sold a year ago or even six or eight months ago," she said. "And homes have to be properly marketed. The days of just putting it in the [Multiple Listing Service] or putting a sign in the front yard are over."
Also hurting sales are rising interest rates.
A 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 6.22 percent in the fourth quarter, up from 5.73 percent in the fourth quarter of 2004, according to Freddie Mac. Rates are expected to inch toward 7 percent in 2006.
"As rates do go up, we'll see [fewer] people being able to buy more expensive homes," said Sara Gutierrez, founder of South Bay Lending in Miami. "If you're a wage earner, you'll be kind of limited. But I don't see the market going crazy in either direction."
Rudner might have to come down even more, especially now that she can't count on Scripps Florida moving to Boca Raton and raising property values. She wants to sell soon and said she's done dabbling in real estate.
"I won't do it anymore," Rudner, 51, said Wednesday. "I'm too afraid. There's too much on the market."
The rising inventory of existing single-family homes is slowing sales across South Florida. Closings dropped during the fourth quarter, compared with the same period a year ago, the Florida Association of Realtors said Wednesday.
Sales fell by 35 percent in Broward County and 23 percent in Palm Beach County, the Orlando-based Realtors group said. Miami-Dade sales declined by 38 percent.
Broward's median sales price rose 26 percent to $377,300, while Palm Beach's median increased 23 percent to $415,800. Miami-Dade's median rose 29 percent to $375,900.
The median price means half the homes sold for more, half for less.
Although prices rose significantly compared with the fourth quarter of 2004, they have remained flat for the past six months, and experts say that will continue in 2006.
As inventory builds, homes sit on the market longer, causing antsy sellers to reduce their asking prices.
Steve Petranick, a Broward real estate agent for Douglas Elliman Florida, said he used to have only three or four properties to show clients looking for homes in the $200,000 to $300,000 range. Now he has 20 or more.
"There are a ton of listings," he said. "It's definitely become more of a buyer's market."
Ann DeFries, an agent with Balistreri Realty in Boca Raton, said Hurricane Wilma skewed the fourth-quarter numbers. The storm postponed sales after hitting South Florida on Oct. 24.
Still, the housing market has slowed, and sellers need to be more realistic, DeFries said.
"They can't compare their home to a home that sold a year ago or even six or eight months ago," she said. "And homes have to be properly marketed. The days of just putting it in the [Multiple Listing Service] or putting a sign in the front yard are over."
Also hurting sales are rising interest rates.
A 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 6.22 percent in the fourth quarter, up from 5.73 percent in the fourth quarter of 2004, according to Freddie Mac. Rates are expected to inch toward 7 percent in 2006.
"As rates do go up, we'll see [fewer] people being able to buy more expensive homes," said Sara Gutierrez, founder of South Bay Lending in Miami. "If you're a wage earner, you'll be kind of limited. But I don't see the market going crazy in either direction."
02-17-2006, 02:23 PM
#388
Safety Car
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02-17-2006, 03:21 PM
#389
Team Owner
Housing Contruction Soars in January
Construction of New Homes, Apartments Shoot Up in January at Fastest Pace in More Than 3 Decades
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/060216/economy.html?.v=10
Construction of New Homes, Apartments Shoot Up in January at Fastest Pace in More Than 3 Decades
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/060216/economy.html?.v=10
02-27-2006, 04:31 PM
#390
I feel the need...
U.S. Economy: New Home Sales Fall, Inventory a Record (Update1)
2006-02-27 12:18 (New York)
(Adds builders' share prices in ninth paragraph.)
By Courtney Schlisserman and Carlos Torres
Feb. 27 (Bloomberg) -- New-home sales in the U.S. fell to the
lowest level in a year in January and the number of properties on
the market was the most ever, more signs housing is losing its
luster after five record years.
Sales declined a greater-than-expected 5 percent to an annual
rate of 1.233 million from a revised 1.298 million in December, the
Commerce Department said today in Washington. The number of homes
for sale rose to an all-time high of 528,000 in January from
December's 515,000.
Higher mortgage rates and home prices will push down sales and
may contribute to a slowing of the economy in the second half,
economists said. Homeowners will borrow half as much cash from the
value of their houses this year as last, curbing consumer spending,
Freddie Mac, the second-largest mortgage lender, said this month.
``The combination of slower demand and looser supply is likely
to put downward pressure on housing-price growth,'' said Jonathan
Basile, an economist at Credit Suisse in New York. ``Housing won't
be the driver for growth as it has been.''
Economists expected sales to fall to an annual rate of 1.265
million, the median of 56 forecasts in a Bloomberg News survey,
from December's originally reported 1.269 million. Estimates ranged
from 1.19 million to 1.35 million.
The median selling price of a new home last month was
$238,100, up 6.7 percent from a year earlier.
At the current sales pace, there were enough new homes on the
market to satisfy demand for the next 5.2 months, the most since
November 1996.
Builders' Orders
Builders including Toll Brothers Inc., the largest U.S.
provider of luxury homes, say orders are declining and may offer
homes with fewer extras to keep prices down and trim inventories. A
larger supply of available homes and less demand may help hold down
prices this year.
A Standard & Poor's index of 16 homebuilders fell 9.7 points,
or 1.1 percent, today as of noon in New York. Toll Brothers fell
1.56 percent to $32.82, while shares of D.R. Horton Inc., the
biggest builder by market value, were little changed at $42.76.
``You're seeing inventories creeping up and affordability
pinching more and more, and you're seeing long-term rates creeping
up,'' said Anthony Chan, chief economist at JPMorgan Chase & Co.'s
private client services group in Columbus, Ohio. ``All that
suggests a trimming of housing activity.''
Prices for new homes will rise 5.7 percent this year after
climbing 7.4 percent in 2005, the National Association of Realtors
forecast on Feb. 7. Existing home prices will increase 5 percent
after jumping 12.7 percent last year, the most since 1979. The
Realtors probably will report tomorrow that existing home sales
last month held at the lowest level since March 2004.
Economic Growth
Resales make up 85 percent of the housing market and are
counted when the sale is closed, while new homes account for the
rest and are recorded when a contract is signed. Sales of new and
existing homes will fall to a combined 7.91 million this year, the
third highest on record, according to the Realtors.
The slowdown in the housing market may weigh on economic
growth in the second half of the year, Federal Reserve policy
makers said in the minutes of their Jan. 31 meeting, released
earlier this month. The central bank increased its main interest
rate for the 14th time at that meeting, to 4.5 percent, and said
more increases ``may be needed'' to keep inflation under control.
The economy probably will grow at a 4 percent annual rate this
quarter, slowing to 3 percent by the last three months of the year,
according to a Bloomberg survey from Jan. 31 to Feb. 8. The cash
extracted by homeowners from refinancing conventional mortgages may
drop to $117 billion this year from an estimated $243 billion last
year, according to a Feb. 7 report from Freddie Mac. That may slow
consumer spending, which accounts for around 70 percent of the
economy.
Regions
Home sales fell in three of four regions. They dropped 15
percent in the Northeast, 11 percent in the Midwest and 10 percent
in the South. Sales rose 11 percent in the West.
Housing affordability fell to the lowest level in more than 14
years last quarter and may decline further in 2006 as mortgage
rates and prices continue to rise, according to the Realtors.
The average rate on a 30-year fixed mortgage rose to 6.15
percent in January from 5.71 percent a year earlier, according to
Freddie Mac, the second-largest mortgage buyer. Rates continued
rising in February and reached 6.26 percent last week.
Toll Brothers said this month first-quarter orders plunged 29
percent from a year earlier and sales for the year would rise as
little as 4.9 percent.
``Speculative demand has ceased and speculators are now
putting their homes back on the market,'' Robert Toll, the
company's chairman and chief executive officer, said in a
statement. ``The result has been more supply than demand in some
regions'' including metropolitan Washington.
--With reporting from Scott Lanman in Washington and Kathleen
Howley in Boston. Editor: Abruzzese (hvg/lfa)
Story illustration: To chart total monthly new home sales at an
annual rate: {NHSLTOT <Index> GP <GO>} or {ALLX NHSL <GO>}.
To chart existing home sales: {EHSLSL <Index> GP <GO>} or
{ALLX EHSL <GO>}.
For more housing data: {HSST <GO>}.
To chart weekly the Mortgage Bankers Association's purchase
applications index: {MBAVPRCH <Index> GP <GO>}.
source: bloomberg
2006-02-27 12:18 (New York)
(Adds builders' share prices in ninth paragraph.)
By Courtney Schlisserman and Carlos Torres
Feb. 27 (Bloomberg) -- New-home sales in the U.S. fell to the
lowest level in a year in January and the number of properties on
the market was the most ever, more signs housing is losing its
luster after five record years.
Sales declined a greater-than-expected 5 percent to an annual
rate of 1.233 million from a revised 1.298 million in December, the
Commerce Department said today in Washington. The number of homes
for sale rose to an all-time high of 528,000 in January from
December's 515,000.
Higher mortgage rates and home prices will push down sales and
may contribute to a slowing of the economy in the second half,
economists said. Homeowners will borrow half as much cash from the
value of their houses this year as last, curbing consumer spending,
Freddie Mac, the second-largest mortgage lender, said this month.
``The combination of slower demand and looser supply is likely
to put downward pressure on housing-price growth,'' said Jonathan
Basile, an economist at Credit Suisse in New York. ``Housing won't
be the driver for growth as it has been.''
Economists expected sales to fall to an annual rate of 1.265
million, the median of 56 forecasts in a Bloomberg News survey,
from December's originally reported 1.269 million. Estimates ranged
from 1.19 million to 1.35 million.
The median selling price of a new home last month was
$238,100, up 6.7 percent from a year earlier.
At the current sales pace, there were enough new homes on the
market to satisfy demand for the next 5.2 months, the most since
November 1996.
Builders' Orders
Builders including Toll Brothers Inc., the largest U.S.
provider of luxury homes, say orders are declining and may offer
homes with fewer extras to keep prices down and trim inventories. A
larger supply of available homes and less demand may help hold down
prices this year.
A Standard & Poor's index of 16 homebuilders fell 9.7 points,
or 1.1 percent, today as of noon in New York. Toll Brothers fell
1.56 percent to $32.82, while shares of D.R. Horton Inc., the
biggest builder by market value, were little changed at $42.76.
``You're seeing inventories creeping up and affordability
pinching more and more, and you're seeing long-term rates creeping
up,'' said Anthony Chan, chief economist at JPMorgan Chase & Co.'s
private client services group in Columbus, Ohio. ``All that
suggests a trimming of housing activity.''
Prices for new homes will rise 5.7 percent this year after
climbing 7.4 percent in 2005, the National Association of Realtors
forecast on Feb. 7. Existing home prices will increase 5 percent
after jumping 12.7 percent last year, the most since 1979. The
Realtors probably will report tomorrow that existing home sales
last month held at the lowest level since March 2004.
Economic Growth
Resales make up 85 percent of the housing market and are
counted when the sale is closed, while new homes account for the
rest and are recorded when a contract is signed. Sales of new and
existing homes will fall to a combined 7.91 million this year, the
third highest on record, according to the Realtors.
The slowdown in the housing market may weigh on economic
growth in the second half of the year, Federal Reserve policy
makers said in the minutes of their Jan. 31 meeting, released
earlier this month. The central bank increased its main interest
rate for the 14th time at that meeting, to 4.5 percent, and said
more increases ``may be needed'' to keep inflation under control.
The economy probably will grow at a 4 percent annual rate this
quarter, slowing to 3 percent by the last three months of the year,
according to a Bloomberg survey from Jan. 31 to Feb. 8. The cash
extracted by homeowners from refinancing conventional mortgages may
drop to $117 billion this year from an estimated $243 billion last
year, according to a Feb. 7 report from Freddie Mac. That may slow
consumer spending, which accounts for around 70 percent of the
economy.
Regions
Home sales fell in three of four regions. They dropped 15
percent in the Northeast, 11 percent in the Midwest and 10 percent
in the South. Sales rose 11 percent in the West.
Housing affordability fell to the lowest level in more than 14
years last quarter and may decline further in 2006 as mortgage
rates and prices continue to rise, according to the Realtors.
The average rate on a 30-year fixed mortgage rose to 6.15
percent in January from 5.71 percent a year earlier, according to
Freddie Mac, the second-largest mortgage buyer. Rates continued
rising in February and reached 6.26 percent last week.
Toll Brothers said this month first-quarter orders plunged 29
percent from a year earlier and sales for the year would rise as
little as 4.9 percent.
``Speculative demand has ceased and speculators are now
putting their homes back on the market,'' Robert Toll, the
company's chairman and chief executive officer, said in a
statement. ``The result has been more supply than demand in some
regions'' including metropolitan Washington.
--With reporting from Scott Lanman in Washington and Kathleen
Howley in Boston. Editor: Abruzzese (hvg/lfa)
Story illustration: To chart total monthly new home sales at an
annual rate: {NHSLTOT <Index> GP <GO>} or {ALLX NHSL <GO>}.
To chart existing home sales: {EHSLSL <Index> GP <GO>} or
{ALLX EHSL <GO>}.
For more housing data: {HSST <GO>}.
To chart weekly the Mortgage Bankers Association's purchase
applications index: {MBAVPRCH <Index> GP <GO>}.
source: bloomberg
02-27-2006, 05:11 PM
#392
I feel the need...
I almost feel sorry for the clowns who don't see what's coming...
In the last cycle in SoCal for example...prices peaked in 1989 but didn't hit bottom until 1996...just read that in the WSJ recently.
In the last cycle in SoCal for example...prices peaked in 1989 but didn't hit bottom until 1996...just read that in the WSJ recently.
Last edited by PistonFan; 02-27-2006 at 05:14 PM.
02-27-2006, 06:14 PM
#393
Senior Moderator
Originally Posted by doopstr
Housing Contruction Soars in January
Construction of New Homes, Apartments Shoot Up in January at Fastest Pace in More Than 3 Decades
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/060216/economy.html?.v=10
Construction of New Homes, Apartments Shoot Up in January at Fastest Pace in More Than 3 Decades
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/060216/economy.html?.v=10
02-27-2006, 07:19 PM
#394
Banned
Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: Champaign, Illinois
Age: 42
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What do you guys think about buying a condo in Champaign, Illinois?
Housing bubble gonna kill me?
Metro Detroit's real estate is going to hurt as the economy continues to shed jobs.
Housing bubble gonna kill me?
Metro Detroit's real estate is going to hurt as the economy continues to shed jobs.
02-27-2006, 08:42 PM
#395
Houses Won't Depreciate?
Thread Starter
Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: Weston, FL
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Originally Posted by M TYPE X
What do you guys think about buying a condo in Champaign, Illinois?
Housing bubble gonna kill me?
Metro Detroit's real estate is going to hurt as the economy continues to shed jobs.
Housing bubble gonna kill me?
Metro Detroit's real estate is going to hurt as the economy continues to shed jobs.
http://www.dallasnews.com/sharedcont....1db2fc24.html
03-06-2006, 05:54 PM
#396
I feel the need...
Declining U.S. Home Market Demands Pricing Savvy: John Wasik
2006-03-06 00:17 (New York)
(Commentary. John F. Wasik, author of ``The Merchant of
Power,'' is a columnist for Bloomberg News. The opinions
expressed are his own.)
By John F. Wasik
March 6 (Bloomberg) -- As the U.S. home market continues to
resemble a bear entering hibernation, home buyers and sellers
will be increasingly tested on their mettle and savvy.
Whether you are a buyer or seller, the key is getting the
right price, a real challenge in any market.
Fortunately, the art of property pricing is becoming more
consumer-friendly as the deflating home market grabs headlines.
Sales of previously owned homes fell 2.8 percent in January --
the fifth monthly decline in a row and the slowest pace in two
years -- according to the Chicago-based National Association of
Realtors. New-home sales dropped 5 percent in the same month, the
U.S. Commerce Department reported.
Another sign of a slowdown is that more than a half-million
new homes are sitting unsold, staying on the market about five
months, the longest time in a decade, according to the Realtors'
group. Builders are increasingly offering incentives such as free
kitchen upgrades and swimming pools in some markets, although
they are finding fewer takers as mortgage rates rise.
Prices Still Robust
While industry analysts forecast a 5 percent decline this
year, home prices held steady at a median $211,000 in January.
There's also some cheer in the boom taking place in areas
benefiting from demographic, retirement and job shifts. In the
latest report from the Office of Federal Housing Enterprise
Oversight, the U.S. agency that monitors mortgage lenders Fannie
Mae and Freddie Mac, the top 10 states in home-price gains also
showed annual returns of more than 18 percent through the fourth
quarter of last year.
Handily beating the average U.S. home-price increase of 13
percent were Arizona (35 percent), Florida (27 percent),
California (21 percent), Washington state (18 percent) and New
Jersey (16 percent).
Five of the top-10 hottest metropolitan markets were in
Florida. And Phoenix was the most torrid in the list, showing a
one-year gain of almost 40 percent.
The Pricing Puzzle
Even if you're in a frothy market, pricing has never been
more important. You face two perennial problems: If buying, how
do you avoid overpaying, and if selling, how do you refrain from
overpricing? Good information is essential and your real-estate
broker may not be your best resource.
Ideally you should work within a realistic price range that
accurately reflects market conditions, and not the greed of the
agent or the ego of the seller. An industry benchmark is to have
your home within about 5 percent of recent selling -- not listing
-- prices of similar properties.
Enter http://www.zillow.com, which may become as potent a
tool for home pricing as search engines became in finding general
information. Now in a beta or trial mode, Zillow allows you to
search homes by address, providing an estimated price range along
with property tax information.
While competing services are offered by
http://www.domania.com and http://realestate.yahoo.com, Zillow
allows you to compare a property to similar homes in an area and
provides median price ranges in the same town, county, state and
country. You can prepare an even more detailed estimate by adding
information on the number of bedrooms and improvements.
Zillowing a Property
I ``Zillowed'' my humble abode and found the square footage,
property tax and comparable home prices to be accurate.
Yet when Zillow calculated a range of market values for my
home, I was disappointed. I believed it would sell for a higher
price given recent sales in my area. The letdown, though, was
instructive because it silently took my ego out of pricing.
If there's one constant in home pricing, when we're buying a
new property, we don't always have complete information on what
constitutes a fair price. And when selling, our egos often lead
us to overprice our home and the value of improvements.
Sporting a feature that is sure to bruise sellers'
confidence, Zillow allows you to note various home improvements
to a property -- whether it's yours or someone else's. Then it
adjusts its estimated market price range.
The surprise is that almost no improvement will yield a
dollar-for-dollar increase in market value and a property may
simply not be worth its listing price. Kitchen and bath remodels,
for example, will net a higher total price than basement
finishing, replacing a roof or windows. That's been consistently
proven in remodeling cost-recovery research and the Zillow
``refined value'' calculation reflects that. If you have improved
your home(s), try this feature. It's a minor revelation.
Empowering Homeowners
Keep in mind that Zillow and other online tools just provide
price estimates and there are some bugs they need to work out.
Zillow's home database at the moment is small and you will need
other services in order to gain a more detailed picture of the
market you are researching. The art of pricing remains in your
hands. You still need detailed information on how many -- and
what type -- of homes are on the market in your price range.
Combined with other do-it-yourself marketing services that
thrive on the Internet, I couldn't help but think that tools like
Zillow may take the property broker out of the picture.
After all, if you can self-market effectively, sensibly
adjust pricing for improvements and compare with similar
properties, why would you need a real-estate agent?
Should you succeed at the pricing game on your own, you have
not only replaced the broker, but boosted your sales gains by at
least the agent's commission, or about 6 percent. If the market
continues to ease, that's something to write home about.
source: bloomberg
2006-03-06 00:17 (New York)
(Commentary. John F. Wasik, author of ``The Merchant of
Power,'' is a columnist for Bloomberg News. The opinions
expressed are his own.)
By John F. Wasik
March 6 (Bloomberg) -- As the U.S. home market continues to
resemble a bear entering hibernation, home buyers and sellers
will be increasingly tested on their mettle and savvy.
Whether you are a buyer or seller, the key is getting the
right price, a real challenge in any market.
Fortunately, the art of property pricing is becoming more
consumer-friendly as the deflating home market grabs headlines.
Sales of previously owned homes fell 2.8 percent in January --
the fifth monthly decline in a row and the slowest pace in two
years -- according to the Chicago-based National Association of
Realtors. New-home sales dropped 5 percent in the same month, the
U.S. Commerce Department reported.
Another sign of a slowdown is that more than a half-million
new homes are sitting unsold, staying on the market about five
months, the longest time in a decade, according to the Realtors'
group. Builders are increasingly offering incentives such as free
kitchen upgrades and swimming pools in some markets, although
they are finding fewer takers as mortgage rates rise.
Prices Still Robust
While industry analysts forecast a 5 percent decline this
year, home prices held steady at a median $211,000 in January.
There's also some cheer in the boom taking place in areas
benefiting from demographic, retirement and job shifts. In the
latest report from the Office of Federal Housing Enterprise
Oversight, the U.S. agency that monitors mortgage lenders Fannie
Mae and Freddie Mac, the top 10 states in home-price gains also
showed annual returns of more than 18 percent through the fourth
quarter of last year.
Handily beating the average U.S. home-price increase of 13
percent were Arizona (35 percent), Florida (27 percent),
California (21 percent), Washington state (18 percent) and New
Jersey (16 percent).
Five of the top-10 hottest metropolitan markets were in
Florida. And Phoenix was the most torrid in the list, showing a
one-year gain of almost 40 percent.
The Pricing Puzzle
Even if you're in a frothy market, pricing has never been
more important. You face two perennial problems: If buying, how
do you avoid overpaying, and if selling, how do you refrain from
overpricing? Good information is essential and your real-estate
broker may not be your best resource.
Ideally you should work within a realistic price range that
accurately reflects market conditions, and not the greed of the
agent or the ego of the seller. An industry benchmark is to have
your home within about 5 percent of recent selling -- not listing
-- prices of similar properties.
Enter http://www.zillow.com, which may become as potent a
tool for home pricing as search engines became in finding general
information. Now in a beta or trial mode, Zillow allows you to
search homes by address, providing an estimated price range along
with property tax information.
While competing services are offered by
http://www.domania.com and http://realestate.yahoo.com, Zillow
allows you to compare a property to similar homes in an area and
provides median price ranges in the same town, county, state and
country. You can prepare an even more detailed estimate by adding
information on the number of bedrooms and improvements.
Zillowing a Property
I ``Zillowed'' my humble abode and found the square footage,
property tax and comparable home prices to be accurate.
Yet when Zillow calculated a range of market values for my
home, I was disappointed. I believed it would sell for a higher
price given recent sales in my area. The letdown, though, was
instructive because it silently took my ego out of pricing.
If there's one constant in home pricing, when we're buying a
new property, we don't always have complete information on what
constitutes a fair price. And when selling, our egos often lead
us to overprice our home and the value of improvements.
Sporting a feature that is sure to bruise sellers'
confidence, Zillow allows you to note various home improvements
to a property -- whether it's yours or someone else's. Then it
adjusts its estimated market price range.
The surprise is that almost no improvement will yield a
dollar-for-dollar increase in market value and a property may
simply not be worth its listing price. Kitchen and bath remodels,
for example, will net a higher total price than basement
finishing, replacing a roof or windows. That's been consistently
proven in remodeling cost-recovery research and the Zillow
``refined value'' calculation reflects that. If you have improved
your home(s), try this feature. It's a minor revelation.
Empowering Homeowners
Keep in mind that Zillow and other online tools just provide
price estimates and there are some bugs they need to work out.
Zillow's home database at the moment is small and you will need
other services in order to gain a more detailed picture of the
market you are researching. The art of pricing remains in your
hands. You still need detailed information on how many -- and
what type -- of homes are on the market in your price range.
Combined with other do-it-yourself marketing services that
thrive on the Internet, I couldn't help but think that tools like
Zillow may take the property broker out of the picture.
After all, if you can self-market effectively, sensibly
adjust pricing for improvements and compare with similar
properties, why would you need a real-estate agent?
Should you succeed at the pricing game on your own, you have
not only replaced the broker, but boosted your sales gains by at
least the agent's commission, or about 6 percent. If the market
continues to ease, that's something to write home about.
source: bloomberg
03-06-2006, 06:47 PM
#397
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Join Date: Feb 2001
Location: San Francisco
Age: 41
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Originally Posted by PistonFan
I almost feel sorry for the clowns who don't see what's coming...
In the last cycle in SoCal for example...prices peaked in 1989 but didn't hit bottom until 1996...just read that in the WSJ recently.
In the last cycle in SoCal for example...prices peaked in 1989 but didn't hit bottom until 1996...just read that in the WSJ recently.
The SoCal real estate during that period had a downtrend due to the Aerospace/Defense industry that collapsed in SoCal. A LOT of people lost their jobs. Without jobs, people obviously could not pay for their mortgages.
03-06-2006, 07:18 PM
#398
I feel the need...
Originally Posted by corey415
A LOT of people lost their jobs. Without jobs, people obviously could not pay for their mortgages.
Wihout stating the obvious, affordability is also a primary driver of real estate asset appreciation. When long term rates go to 50 year lows and the pump is primed for an easy money bonanza...a lot of people who otherwise wouldn't speculate were inclined to do so.
Now that rates are moving up and a lot of people have engorged themselves with exotic financing terms...ala, interest only hybrid arms, it stands to reason that affordability is reaching the upper limits of most middle-income Americans. Speaking of SoCal of course.
Don't take my word for it, you can find plenty of examples, just google: anotherfu*kedborrower
03-06-2006, 09:13 PM
#399
Senior Moderator
Originally Posted by PistonFan
Don't take my word for it, you can find plenty of examples, just google: anotherfu*kedborrower
I've seen the slow down in my market... probably like 10-15 percent from the peak of last summer...
Houses like mine were going for around 330 last summer. I had been looking to see how much more money I'd have to spend to get something bigger then my current house. Saw alot of comparable houses up to about 330. I didn't see anything that was better then my house till I got up into the 350's... Saw a couple of sellers on crack asking 400's for stuff not much bigger/better then my house too.
Now, I can find comparable houses in the 280s... which is about 15%... Of course this is based on asking prices. Since it looks like a buyers market, the prices drop is probably closer to 20%....
I guess me and my brother were right about him waiting a couple of years before buying... looks like the market will correct itself...
It's going to be interesting to see how far this goes (just localized markets?) and what shortterm/longterm effects this will have on the overall economy...
I'm staying put for at least a few more years to see how this all pans out...
03-23-2006, 03:15 PM
#400
Senior Moderator
Looks like it's for real: U.S. housing is cooling
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servl...ry/TPBusiness/
"We knew that the market was flying too high for way too long," TD Securities Inc. economist Beata Caranci said.
....
Just as expected, Ms. Caranci said, numbers are declining faster in the U.S. West and Northeast, where economists saw more evidence of frothiness.
.....
Ms. Caranci expects the downward trend in prices and transactions that have been seen for about five months will continue. Prices have remained more stubborn, but the number of homes changing hands has fallen markedly.
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servl...ry/TPBusiness/
"We knew that the market was flying too high for way too long," TD Securities Inc. economist Beata Caranci said.
....
Just as expected, Ms. Caranci said, numbers are declining faster in the U.S. West and Northeast, where economists saw more evidence of frothiness.
.....
Ms. Caranci expects the downward trend in prices and transactions that have been seen for about five months will continue. Prices have remained more stubborn, but the number of homes changing hands has fallen markedly.