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Old 08-10-2005, 12:39 PM
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You and your hot real estate market in Toronto are affecting everyone






It may be the effects of a hot real estate market in Toronto, but illegal marijuana growers appear to be looking at low-cost northern Ontario land as a way to cut costs, Canadian police said on Monday.

In the past two weeks, police have made two massive seizures in sparsely populated towns in northern Ontario a region more famous for mining, timber and paper mills.

About 39,000 marijuana plants, with a street value of more than C$40 million ($33 million), were seized in Iroquois Falls and Matheson, Ontario, about 650 km (400 miles) north of Toronto. The operations were about the size of three or football fields, police said.

Those arrested were from Toronto, reports said.

Police say the low cost of land is likely one reason grow ops may be moving away from the greater Toronto area, where nearly 5 million people live and real estate prices have been on a steady climb for years.

"We're seeing an influx of people from the GTA. I think a lot of it has to do with the fact that you can buy land for pretty cheap here," Detective Sergeant Bill O'Shea of the Ontario Provincial Police drug enforcement unit said on Monday.

"We're talking about a multimillion-dollar business."

Growers may also be looking for locations further from the intense attention of law enforcement in and around Toronto, which has seen a series of high-profile busts in suburban houses or warehouses.

Last year a virtual marijuana factory was discovered in an abandoned brewery just north of Toronto. The raid netted 30,000 marijuana plants from what police described as the biggest indoor grow op in Canada's history.

The Canadian government is trying to toughen penalties for growing or selling the drug, but is also considering decriminalizing possession of small amounts of pot.

This has drawn the ire of the U.S. government, which complains that Canada is too lax on drug use and has become a major source of the marijuana being smuggled into the United States.

Studies estimate that illegal marijuana growers produce a crop with a street value of more than C$10 billion annually. Much of that is said to come from British Columbia, the country's westernmost province, which makes the potent "B.C. Bud," with much of it destined for the United States.

http://ca.today.reuters.com/news/new...IJUANA-COL.XML
Old 08-10-2005, 02:26 PM
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Originally Posted by zamo
Read some article last week. You can find some here: http://news.google.com/news?hl=en&ne...nG=Search+News
From one of the articles:

Miami Mayor Diaz ticked off the reasons why he is so secure: Favorable interest rates. Aging baby boomers looking to move to a warm climate. And the foreign buyers - 36 percent of South Florida's real estate is bought by people outside of the United States.
As much as I'd hate to quote a local politician this is why I feel we might not have a bubble as bad as everyone speculates. Not to mention Florida has no state tax and the number of 2nd home buyers from inside the US. South FL is a borough of New York City. No offense but who wants to live in Toronto, ?
Old 08-10-2005, 02:31 PM
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Originally Posted by Doom878
No offense but who wants to live in Toronto, ?
was that a serious question? As the 4rd largest metropolis in the US and Canada, I'd say alot of people want to live here. We have plenty of foreign investment, including your very own Donald Trump who is building a tower here. We're like a smaller, cleaner, safer new york.
Old 08-10-2005, 02:35 PM
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Old 08-10-2005, 03:07 PM
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Originally Posted by fdl
was that a serious question? As the 4rd largest metropolis in the US and Canada, I'd say alot of people want to live here. We have plenty of foreign investment, including your very own Donald Trump who is building a tower here. We're like a smaller, cleaner, safer new york.
:whocares:

The #1 reason that people move from the north to the south is because they're sick of being cold. The second is cost of living since NY and Mass are insane. Why move to Toronto where it's colder than there and the Canadian $ is weak. Not trying to insult your city. I'm sure Toronto is an excellent a city as I've heard of only good thing about it. But the reality is that people move for certain reasons.
Old 08-10-2005, 03:18 PM
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Originally Posted by Doom878
:whocares:

The #1 reason that people move from the north to the south is because they're sick of being cold. The second is cost of living since NY and Mass are insane. Why move to Toronto where it's colder than there and the Canadian $ is weak. Not trying to insult your city. I'm sure Toronto is an excellent a city as I've heard of only good thing about it. But the reality is that people move for certain reasons.

You point was "who wants to live in Toronto". Its been pointed out to you that its the 4th largest city in the US and Canada so obviously lots of people don't mind living here. So your point about Toronto being cold etc obviously isn't a valid one.
Old 08-10-2005, 03:20 PM
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Originally Posted by Doom878
:whocares:

The #1 reason that people move from the north to the south is because they're sick of being cold. The second is cost of living since NY and Mass are insane. Why move to Toronto where it's colder than there and the Canadian $ is weak. Not trying to insult your city. I'm sure Toronto is an excellent a city as I've heard of only good thing about it. But the reality is that people move for certain reasons.

What the hell are you talking about? So real estate value should be based on where retired people are moving? Who cares why a few old retirees move to florida. For every one person that moves from New York or Toronto to Florida, there are 10 that move to New York and Toronto, from all parts of the world. Toronto is a hot spot for immigration. The reason that the cost of living is higher in these large north eastern cities is because more people want to live/work there. There is diversity, art, culture, not to mention JOBS. How many corporate head offices are in Miami?

Have you ever been to Toronto? Its no colder than New York, or Cleveland, or Boston, or Chicago. So are you saying that real estate in all these places will crash because everyone is moving away to warmer climates? I dont really understand what your point is.
Old 08-10-2005, 03:36 PM
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Originally Posted by dom
You point was "who wants to live in Toronto". Its been pointed out to you that its the 4th largest city in the US and Canada so obviously lots of people don't mind living here. So your point about Toronto being cold etc obviously isn't a valid one.
Sorry, who wants to move there.
Old 08-10-2005, 03:39 PM
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Originally Posted by Doom878
Sorry, who wants to move there.

Obviously alot of people, as has been proven 3 times over. If I made a list of "Reasons to move to Toronto" and you made a list of "Reasons to move to Miami" I bet my list would be alot longer. But really whats the point? What is the point you are trying to make, as it relates to real estate values?
Old 08-10-2005, 03:41 PM
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Originally Posted by Doom878
Sorry, who wants to move there.

Again, if its the 4th largest city is the US and Canada ALOT people ARE moving here.
Old 08-10-2005, 03:47 PM
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I dont know how New York attracted so many people. I mean, its sooo cold there. I think there will be a real estate crash there now that everyone is moving to Florida to warm up
Old 08-10-2005, 03:48 PM
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Originally Posted by fdl
What the hell are you talking about? So real estate value should be based on where retired people are moving? Who cares why a few old retirees move to florida. For every one person that moves from New York or Toronto to Florida, there are 10 that move to New York and Toronto, from all parts of the world.
Hearsay. We don't just get a "few" retirees. We get plenty of them. We get plenty of foreigners immigrating here from Central America, Mexico, South America, the Carribean, and a few in Europe. We also get our share of American citizens that move down here too. Traffic is a serious problem here and public transportation is extremely underdeveloped. All of this has been reported for years in local newspapers.

Toronto is a hot spot for immigration. The reason that the cost of living is higher in these large north eastern cities is because more people want to live/work there. There is diversity, art, culture, not to mention JOBS. How many corporate head offices are in Miami?
Miami has no art and culture neither huh? Ever heard of South Beach? Ever seen how many art galleries are in Miami Beach, Coral Gables, City of Miami. Ever heard of the Design District. Ever hear of how many art/culture people purchase in the area and have a giant house on Star Island or off Key Biscayne?

Jobs??? No Miami has no jobs for the millions of people that live here. We have no large companies at all. You don't need HQ's to have jobs.

Have you ever been to Toronto? Its no colder than New York, or Cleveland, or Boston, or Chicago. So are you saying that real estate in all these places will crash because everyone is moving away to warmer climates?
Exactly its freezing either way. If you want to relocate for better weather why go somewhere just as cold?

I dont really understand what your point is.
My point is that south FL has a more likely chance of avoiding the bubble burst than Toronto (per the article and Zamo's comment) because of the reasons I cited. Sales have been reported to slightly slow down but I seriously doubt it'll burst to the apocalyptic proportions that everyone fears.

I knew you guys would get a kick out of my who wants to move to Toronto comment. And yeah my comments sounded ass-holic, but the fact of the matter is that Florida is a pretty appealing place to live from certain standpoints. We can go back and forth all day on why which is far more superior, but I stand by my opinion regarding the bubble.
Old 08-10-2005, 03:49 PM
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Slow down guys. You post like 4x while I'm working and typing. Let me respond then reply. :wink:
Old 08-10-2005, 03:51 PM
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Originally Posted by fdl
I dont know how New York attracted so many people. I mean, its sooo cold there. I think there will be a real estate crash there now that everyone is moving to Florida to warm up
They're less likely to get bubbled than Toronto too. I actually hope New Yawkers stay up there. They crowd my streets.
Old 08-10-2005, 03:55 PM
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Your statements are still groundless. You are arguing that Florida is less vulnerable to a crash because more people "want to move there" , while noone wants to move to Toronto. Its simply NOT TRUE. Period. You also seem to be stuck on the notion that population relocation is what fuels growth in real estate. Maybe in Florida its the main factor, but not everywhere.

And of course there is SOME culture, and art in Miami. I'm just saying there is more in Toronto. But thats really besides the point.
Old 08-10-2005, 03:57 PM
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Doom, how do you explain the fact that Toronto is bigger than every American city outside of LA, New York, and Chicago if "noone wants to move to Toronto"?
Old 08-10-2005, 04:15 PM
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An interesting stat..

According to the United Nations Human Development Report 2004 (http://hdr.undp.org/reports/global/2004/), Miami, at 60% Immigrant, has the largest percentage of immigrants of any city in the world followed by Toronto, Canada with 44%.
Old 08-10-2005, 04:16 PM
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Originally Posted by fdl
Your statements are still groundless. You are arguing that Florida is less vulnerable to a crash because more people "want to move there" , while noone wants to move to Toronto. Its simply NOT TRUE. Period. You also seem to be stuck on the notion that population relocation is what fuels growth in real estate. Maybe in Florida its the main factor, but not everywhere.
Tourism is a huge industry in Florida due to climate. A big factor on why people move here because they can live in a somewhat affordable paradise. Outside sales will always be a source of housing sales for south FL, so it doesn't seem as the increase in prices is artificial. Not that Toronto's is artificial but that particular reason of climate can only be stopped by an act of God such as an Ice Age or flooding. See California. Obviously both cities will have it's share of in-city purchases so that's a wash. FL also has favorable taxing to Canada as a whole. Some investors avoid taxes like a plague.

I'm assuming you mean population when you refer to Toronto being #4. South FL is a newer market compared to the other cities mentioned. In southwest Dade county there are several areas that 30 years ago were just farms. The beaches were dominated by hotels which are now converting to condos and are selling due to the prime location. Beachfront property is always a valuable commodity. Go too far west you have the Everglades so space is limited, so yes we'll never be as big as the top 4. My history of Toronto is limited but NY and Boston have been around forever.

And of course there is SOME culture, and art in Miami. I'm just saying there is more in Toronto. But thats really besides the point.
That's pretty groundless as well as you probably have no idea what's in Miami as I have no idea on Toronto. Nor do we really care but that's probably why you didn't touch that. Of course you might see me on the MTV awards.
Old 08-10-2005, 04:18 PM
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Originally Posted by fdl
An interesting stat..

According to the United Nations Human Development Report 2004 (http://hdr.undp.org/reports/global/2004/), Miami, at 60% Immigrant, has the largest percentage of immigrants of any city in the world followed by Toronto, Canada with 44%.
What a coincidence.
Old 08-10-2005, 04:23 PM
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Right, well i'm not meaing to put down Miami, or Florida in general. Obviously its a great place to live and people want to live there. But if all we cared about was weather and beaches we would all move to Mexico.

Despite what you said earlier, Toronto is a hot market because people DO want to live and move here. There is no other explanation for its very large size and population.
Old 08-10-2005, 04:24 PM
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Some more interesting facts.


Key Facts

In 1997, 42 per cent of all new immigrants to Canada chose Toronto as their destination.

There are more than 90 different ethnic groups in the Toronto Census Metropolitan Area (CMA) and over one million non-English or French speaking people. The top six are European (997,180), East and Southeast Asian (488,350), British (457,990), Canadian (311,965), South Asian (291,520) and Caribbean (167,295).

Safety

Toronto is a remarkably safe and clean city in a remarkably safe and clean country. Even though Toronto is Canada's largest city, it is sixth in the level of violent crime, with a lower crime rate than both of Canada's other large cities — Vancouver and Montreal.

Crime Rates: 1999 (Per 100,000 people)

Source: Statistics Canada, TBOT, DOJ, FBI

Homicide Rank Robbery Rank Break-In Rank
Washington D.C. 45.5 1 670.6 5 971.9 22
Saint Louis, MO 37.8 2 811.3 3 2,282.7 1
Atlanta, GA 34.5 3 983.0 1 2,069.0 2
New Orleans, LA 33.7 4 580.1 7 1,194.1 15
Kansas City, MO 24.8 5 553.7 9 1,923.3 4
Chicago, IL 23.3 6 743.8 4 1,102.1 17
Milwaukee, WI 21.1 7 532.7 10 1,098.3 18
Dallas, TX 17.5 8 583.7 6 1,802.2 5
Phoenix, AZ 17.3 9 311.6 16 1,299.4 12
Miami, FL 16.9 10 824.8 2 1,965.1 3
Hartford, CT 15.8 11 576.6 8 1,162.2 16
Fort Worth, TX 13.5 12 290.7 18 1,507.7 8
Houston, TX 13.4 13 464.6 13 1,376.8 10
Oklahoma City, OK 12.1 14 229.5 20 1,733.7 6
Los Angeles, CA 11.7 15 397.9 15 594.2 26
Buffalo, NY 10.4 16 477.2 12 1,434.6 9
New York, NY 9.1 17 490.6 11 550.0 27
Seattle, WA 8.4 18 305.1 17 1,202.2 14
Boston, MA 5.5 19 440.8 14 610.0 25
San Diego, CA 4.7 20 150.3 23 544.7 28
Vancouver, BC 2.8 21 217.1 21 1,600.8 7
Winnipeg, MB 2.2 22 267.7 19 1,235.5 13
Edmonton, AB 2.2 23 136.7 24 1,017.7 20
Montreal, PQ 2.0 24 193.9 22 1,312.4 11
Ottawa, ON 1.5 25 104.8 27 883.0 23
Calgary, AB 1.4 26 108.8 26 1,013.5 21
Toronto, ON 1.3 27 115.1 25 611.9 24
London, ON 1.2 28 56.1 28 1,074.1 19
Old 08-10-2005, 04:31 PM
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Yeah Miami's up there but hasn't gotten better. Canada is safe as a country from what I gather. I saw something once where you guys don't lock your doors.

But you see I had a point, I wasn't just bashing or anything. Just a bunch of guys in the pub talking business.
Old 08-10-2005, 04:33 PM
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oddly enough, I plan to move to Florida when I retire
Old 08-10-2005, 04:54 PM
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Originally Posted by fdl
Doom, how do you explain the fact that Toronto is bigger than every American city outside of LA, New York, and Chicago if "noone wants to move to Toronto"?


And Mexico City is bigger than all of them

While I would rather vacation in Miami than Toronto, I would rather live in Toronto than Miami,
Old 08-10-2005, 09:32 PM
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Despite Illegal Status, Buyers Get Home Loans

Even illegal immigrants are getting loans.


# Mortgage lenders are designing programs aimed at undocumented immigrants. Real estate agents also see a huge untapped market.

By Anna Gorman, Times Staff Writer

Each week, Pedro Morlet knocks on doors in the Bay Area, looking for illegal immigrants.

Morlet isn't an immigration agent. He's a real estate agent, and he's scouting for business.

"Do you want a house, work and pay taxes but don't have a Social Security number?" reads his flier, written in Spanish and tailored to his potential customers. "We can help you LEGALLY!"

Across the country, particularly in Texas and parts of the Midwest, hundreds of illegal immigrants have bought homes using special lending programs that bypass the need for a Social Security number. Now, with backing from some of the country's largest financial institutions, this newest effort to tap customers for the real estate market is moving to the nation's largest concentration of illegal immigrants — California.

As buyers begin to queue up, real estate is becoming the latest arena to highlight the often-bizarre contradictions of American immigration policy.

Advocates of tighter controls on immigration oppose the idea of illegal residents buying homes here. Lending money to illegal immigrants encourages others to cross the border, they say.

"They have no right to own property in the United States because they have no right to be here in the first place," said Diana Hull, president of Californians for Population Stabilization.

Legally, that's not quite true. Unlike some countries — Mexico, for example — the United States generally does not restrict foreign citizens from buying real estate.

But for years, because qualifying for a mortgage required a Social Security number, the only way for an illegal immigrant to do so was by using a false number. In addition, such immigrants often were rejected or overlooked by legitimate lenders, leaving them vulnerable to fraud.

Lenders have a powerful incentive to find ways to get around those barriers: tens of thousands of potential customers. The National Assn. of Hispanic Real Estate Professionals estimates that more than 216,000 undocumented immigrants, including many who have been in the country for decades, could buy homes if they had better access to the market.

Despite their undocumented status, many prospective buyers earn steady incomes, face little risk of deportation and are desperate to become homeowners. Their purchases would amount to millions of dollars in mortgages.

"You have gainfully employed people who have been stuffing money in the mattress for a long time," said Mary Mancera, spokeswoman for the association. "There are quite a few who have been working and saving money and raising kids and going about their lives and want to achieve that next step, but haven't been able to because of the barriers."

Silvia Avalos, a hairstylist, and her husband, Jose Luis Avalos, a busboy, are among the people Mancera is talking about. They were tired of spending their money on rent each month but didn't want to use fake Social Security numbers to buy a home.

After friends told them they could buy legally, they found a two-bedroom condo northeast of San Francisco for $280,000. They moved in as soon as escrow closed.

"We saw it as an investment," Silvia Avalos said. "While you are here, you have somewhere to live that is yours. And if you return home [to Mexico], you can sell it."

Another prospective buyer, Aaron Sanchez, was pre-approved for a $200,000 loan after taking a class sponsored by ACORN, an advocacy group for the poor, on how to make offers and apply for mortgages. The 32-year-old illegal immigrant from Oaxaca, Mexico, has worked at the same furniture company in the San Gabriel Valley for 14 years. He wants each of his two children to have a room. It is a luxury, he knows, that will be hard to afford.

"I think I can find a house," Sanchez said, "but a small house."

The opportunity to get people like the Avalos and Sanchez families into the market begins with the IRS, which is happy to collect peoples' taxes, regardless of their immigration status.

Nearly a decade ago, the IRS began giving out Individual Taxpayer Identification Numbers so people without Social Security numbers could pay taxes. Since then, more than 8 million applicants have received numbers, and about 2 million are used annually on tax returns.

The IRS knows illegal immigrants are using the numbers to get mortgages.

"We don't have control over whatever the taxpayers do with the numbers other than filing a tax return," spokeswoman Irma Trevińo said.

In addition to the ID numbers, immigrants must show that they have been in the country, worked and paid taxes for at least two years in order to get mortgages. Because many do not have credit scores, they must prove their good credit through such documents as utility and cellphone bills, rent receipts, bank statements and paychecks. The interest rates and loan costs are in line with those of buyers who have Social Security numbers.

So far, the trend has begun slowly in California: Only about 50 houses and condominiums have closed escrow.

One obstacle is the same as that facing any buyer in the state — high costs.

Many illegal immigrants cannot make the down payments or prove they earn enough to pay a mortgage in the state's pricey markets. Those who have been able to find affordable homes have bought in places such as Bakersfield.

"It hasn't been as successful as we expected it to be," said Felix Harris, Los Angeles program manager of ACORN. "The prices keep escalating."

Another factor is the lenders' low profile. Citibank, for example, has been offering loans to illegal immigrants in California under a pilot program since September. But it has not advertised widely and wouldn't discuss details with a reporter. It has relied largely on ACORN and individual immigrants and real estate agents to get out the word.

"Citibank is the largest financial institution in the world," said Gary Acosta, a co-founder of the Latino real estate group. "They are interested in the business opportunity. They think it is the right thing to do. But they are probably not interested in getting involved in the public debate that's taking place right now."

Acosta said that also, the bank probably wants to test the loans before advertising and opening the floodgates.

The lenders' reticence means some real estate agents don't know that the loans are available. Victor Campos, a real estate agent in San Fernando, said he often turns away illegal immigrants.

"As far as we know, if they don't have papers, the lenders won't even touch them."

Some banks are reluctant to take the risks involved in the illegal-immigrant market. "If someone were to get deported, what happens?" said Cynthia Mendoza, an account executive with Bank of America. "It's a loss to the bank."

In addition, large underwriters such as Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac aren't buying the loans, so the banks must keep them. A spokesman for Fannie Mae said the company recently reviewed its policies at the request of several lenders but decided not to make any changes, citing "complex and evolving" U.S. immigration laws.

But other financial institutions say the risk is worth taking.

They are being urged on by one of the nation's chief banking regulators, the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. Eager to guard against predatory lending practices, the FDIC is encouraging banks to reach out to the Latino population — both documented and undocumented. The loans based on tax identification numbers are one way to do that.

FDIC officials predict that despite the slow start, the loans will take off in California, with its huge illegal-immigrant population.

"It happened in Chicago," said FDIC spokeswoman Linda Ortega. "And it will happen in Los Angeles."

One bank that has gotten into the market is Fifth Third Bank in Cincinnati. "We recognized it as a business opportunity," said Bill Schumer, a vice president of marketing at the bank. "It's appealing to a market that is growing dramatically."

Fifth Third Bank started issuing the loans in November after hiring bilingual loan officers. The bank is reaching out to customers through churches and community organizations.

One of those customers, Gerardo Vega, bought a three-bedroom home in Indianapolis.

"I feel like I deserve to have a house because I do what everybody else does," said Vega, an illegal immigrant who installs drywall for a living. "I pay my taxes."

In Northern California, real estate agent Morlet has helped four undocumented immigrants buy homes legally. Morlet, a U.S. citizen originally from Mexico City, said he understands his clients' desire to own property in the United States and to buy it through legitimate lenders.

"I live in an area where a lot of people get [defrauded] by people who don't have any scruples," he said.

Now that loans are available, Morlet faces the challenge of finding homes his customers can afford. When he comes across a deal, he must work hard to beat other bidders. The mortgages take much longer than average and require several more steps.

But his clients, Morlet said, are willing to wait.
http://www.latimes.com/business/la-m...lines-business
Old 08-11-2005, 07:48 AM
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Originally Posted by fdl
oddly enough, I plan to move to Florida when I retire
Old 08-11-2005, 09:00 AM
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More interesting info. We got all the blacks. In the paper there was a chart that showed Broward 1st and Palm Beach 4th.

http://www.miami.com/mld/miamiherald/12354494.htm

Broward's future is 'minority majority'

Lured by sunshine, jobs and palm trees, more blacks migrated to Broward last year than to any other county in the United States.

BY ERIKA BOLSTAD, NATALIE P. McNEAL AND TIM HENDERSON

ebolstad@herald.com


Jacinta Jones gladly traded Georgia's peaches for Broward's palm trees. The 27-year-old decided to make the move from Atlanta to South Florida last year with her 7-year-old son.

''I originally planned to move to Dade County because I fell in love with Miami,'' said Jones, who now lives in Sunrise. ``But in Broward, the schools are better, the people are calmer, and the landscaping better than anywhere else.''

Jones was part of a wave of migration that brought more new black residents to Broward than to any other U.S. county last year, according to Census Bureau figures released this week.

''Because I'm still young, I wanted to be close to Miami for the club scene,'' said Jones, who works as an assistant to the president at a Fort Lauderdale advertising firm. ``But I wanted to be in the area of it, not the center of it. Broward is ideal.''

The Census estimates that 17,900 blacks moved to Broward in the 12 months ending July 1, 2004, making the county's population about 25 percent black. Broward's increase was much larger than that of the closest runner-up, Gwinnett County, Ga., with 13,338 new black residents.

Miami-Dade saw a much smaller increase in its black population, 3,085 people.

VARIED REASONS

Demographers say they believe that the boom in Broward's black population is largely from Caribbean immigrants, especially those from Haiti. But beyond immigrants, many black residents come to Broward for the same reasons that the county has long attracted newcomers: good job opportunities and even better weather.

''It's all becoming browner and blacker,'' said Keith Clayborne, publisher of the black-themed Broward Times newspaper. ``You see the small businesses starting, the beauty salons, the typical kind of small businesses when you have immigrants. And you're getting people who are retired who are coming from corporate jobs from the Northeast.''

NOT SURPRISING

The growth in the county's black population is no surprise to anyone who studies demographics in Broward County. The increases first began showing up in school enrollment figures, said Bill Leonard, a senior planner for Broward County.

The increases were so noticeable that the county's planning staff updated its 2002 population projections this spring to reflect the increasing number of black Broward residents moving in -- as well as the future growth expected in the black population.

''It's something we've been seeing glimpses of,'' Leonard said.

MORE LIKE DADE

Within five years, he and other demographers expect that Broward will become what's known as a ''minority majority'' county, where Hispanic and black residents outnumber white, non-Hispanic residents. That trend was seen long ago in Miami-Dade, thanks to heavy Hispanic immigration.

But now, it's Broward's turn to mirror the trends of Miami-Dade County and states like New Mexico, California and now Texas -- all places where the combined minority population outnumbers the overall white population.

FLED INSTABILITY

Some of the immigrants fueling Broward's growth, like Lania Ambroise, were escaping unstable political conditions in countries like Haiti.

Ambroise, 38, moved to Broward from Haiti last August after her political activities made her fear for her life.

She fled with her children, now ages 7 and 5, to her sister's home in Miramar. Originally, she planned to move back to Haiti, but her home was burned down. Her husband came last month to join her in Miramar.

Now, Ambroise is spending her time studying at Broward Community College and working part time as a certified nurse's assistant. She wants to become a registered nurse. For Ambroise, there was nothing optional about her family's migration.

''I don't think I can go back to Haiti, not just yet,'' Ambroise said.

Clayborne said he suspects that many of his new black neighbors in Coral Springs are part of a growing black middle class in Broward that comes from Miami-Dade as well as from outside Florida. That includes people from cities like Atlanta that already have a high concentration of black residents.

JOBS, POLITICS

There are plenty of reasons for Broward County to be a primary destination for blacks, said Marvin Dunn, an associate professor of psychology at Florida International University.

Broward's expanding economy provides job growth that allows blacks to find good-paying jobs, Dunn said.

''The county is much more of a political base politically and economically for blacks,'' said Dunn, who has written books about the history of blacks in Florida. ``That translates into privilege, jobs and opportunities.'

Since Hurricane Andrew, much of Broward's growth has come from people who once lived in Miami-Dade County. Many of those people are what are known as secondary immigrants -- people who first moved to Miami-Dade when they arrived in the United States, then shifted to Broward for jobs, housing or schools.

MOVED FROM N. DADE

Laurie Johnson and her husband, Joseph, had lived in north Miami-Dade County for 16 years. Johnson, 43, and a native of the Bahamas, said that after all of her longtime neighbors moved away and the neighborhood changed, the family decided in May 2004 it was time to move, too.

The family upgraded from a three-bedroom, two-bath home to a five-bedroom, four-bath home in Miramar's Huntington subdivision, close to Interstate 75 and the turnpike. The highways give her an easy commute to her office in downtown Miami, where she works as a construction analyst. Her husband, a corrections counselor, has a 15-minute drive to work.

LIKES THE SCHOOLS

Also, Johnson felt comfortable in Broward sending her 16-year-old, Anwar, to a public high school, something she didn't feel comfortable with in Miami-Dade County.

''We were amazed that I-75 was just a hip and a hop away,'' Johnson said. ``And I'm very pleased that I don't have to pay private school tuition anymore.''

Herald staff writers Steve Harrison and Yamiche Alcindor contributed to this report.
Old 08-12-2005, 11:13 PM
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Do Try This at Home: Assess Your Area's Real Estate Bubble
By DAMON DARLIN
For the first time since the residential real estate marathon began 13 years ago, parts of the country are showing signs of exhaustion. But if you rely on the experts to declare that a particular area's bubble has popped, you may have waited too long.

So how can a homeowner tell if a market is about to go bust? This may be one of those rare occasions when professionals parsing data are at a disadvantage to regular people watching the market. That's because the main driver of today's market is consumer psychology. Home prices go up as long as people expect them to go up.

When they stop believing, prices fall - and no economist in Washington can get wind of that faster than someone chatting over knockwurst at a neighborhood block party. "Economists looking at the macrodata will be the last to know," said Richard A. Brown, chief economist at the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation.

What you will learn from the professionals who are dutifully crunching numbers is that prices are not falling significantly in any of the hot markets, but in a dozen or so cities in the Northeast and in California, they are near the peak. In Boston, for example, the time that homes are sitting on the market has stretched to 46 days from 39 days a year ago.

An analysis of price appreciation, done for The New York Times by the Joint Center for Housing Studies at Harvard, shows that the price appreciation in cities including New York City; Austin, Tex.; Philadelphia; and Providence, R.I., are decelerating. Appreciation in Detroit and Denver has already slowed to a crawl.

"It's taking a lot longer to sell a home," says Karl A. Martone, a Re/Max Properties agent in Providence, where homes now sit on the market an average of 65 days, up from 14 days a year ago. The region has almost six months of inventory, which is up 35 percent from a year ago.

Vicki Doran, a real estate agent with Coldwell Banker in Providence, says: "It's switching to a buyer's market. Last year buyers had to snap things up. Now they can shop around."

Even a few markets in hard-charging California - San Diego, Orange County and Santa Cruz - are part of the trend, according to data from the first three months of the year. Data for the second quarter to be released by the government on Sept. 1 may confirm the trend. But already Christopher Thornberg, senior forecaster at UCLA Anderson Forecast, a service of the University of California, Los Angeles, says California has "peaked and is already coming down the back side."

On Tuesday, David A. Lereah, the chief economist at the National Association of Realtors, said that the housing market was "probably close to a peak right now."

Take a look at the hot San Diego condo market. In Park Place, one of the many sleek towers of condominiums recently slung up around Petco Park, a one-bedroom condo is offered for $719,000. Someone buying it would expect to make mortgage payments of about $3,775 a month, plus monthly maintenance fees.

But someone really wanting to live in the high-rise, with hardwood floors, granite countertops and city views for a lot less, could rent a nearly identical unit in the same building for $2,400 a month. That is clear evidence prices have to move down. You are more apt to see that the price of residential property no longer is connected to its underlying value than a person looking only at spreadsheets of sales data.

Prices in overheated markets must, by definition, come back down to the mean. Knowing which way the market is headed before buying or selling is extremely important to anyone who wants to protect the wealth tied up in a house. And it certainly matters to anyone who is thinking of buying because it never makes much sense to buy at the top of the market. "The turning point is pretty important," Mr. Brown said, "because the trend will play out for years."

The trouble is, economists have been wrong before when they try to call the market. Three years ago, Dean Baker, co-director of the Center for Economic and Policy Research in Washington, said that it would be only a matter of months before prices began to fall. Prognosticators at the research firm Economy.com declared that the peak was last summer. Celia Chen, the firm's director for housing economics, is now saying that it will come this year.

"The timing is always difficult with these things," admits Ian Morris, chief United States economist at HSBC Securities U.S.A., who made the same call, repeatedly.

John Karevoll, an analyst with DataQuick Information Systems, which provides real estate data to lenders, said: "We've been told for years that the peak is just around the corner. The economists have so much egg on their faces."

Don't be too hard on them. It's the nature of their science. N. Gregory Mankiw, the Harvard University professor and former head of the White House Council of Economic Advisers, made one of the most famous miscalls. In 1989 he wrote a paper arguing that the aging of the baby boomers was going to undermine the housing market in the 1990's and 2000's. Whoops.

Though it appears the shift is now at hand, the end of the bubble will not look anything like the crash in the stock market after the technology bubble. The stock market turns frenetic when investors scramble to get out and prices fall sharply. In housing, however, a collapse is signaled by a sharp drop in activity as people hold off buying. Houses stay on the market longer. Inventories grow. Only then will prices fall, slowly. Economists say prices will lag a slowdown in the market by four to six months.

Some of the data on where a local market is headed is available on the Internet (links are at nytimes.com/business). In other cases, your real estate agent is your best friend. He or she has access to a storehouse of raw data from the local Multiple Listing Service. Here are some indicators to look at:

Market activity How many homes are sold compared with the month before is the earliest indicator, but it is notorious for false positives. But if the number of homes sold starts to drop, perk up. Every county tracks this and makes it available to the public.

Inventory Some of the most crucial pieces of information are held closely by real estate agents. The number of houses on the market is one of them. The national average is 4.3 months; 6 months is closer to normal, the National Association of Realtors says. When it grows, there is trouble coming. Time on the market Agents control access to this information, and be warned: they know how to manipulate it. A house that has been languishing can be taken off and put back to look like a fresh listing. But you'll still be able to see the average time stretching as a clear signal of cooling.

Prices It's what you care about most. But month-to-month comparisons are nearly useless as an indicator because sales of a few houses on either end of the market can skew the figures. DataQuick at www.dqnews.com has some data and the Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight issues quarterly reports.

Failed to sell The super-secret indicator among agents is the number of houses that are quietly taken off the market - usually because they are priced too high. Wheedle the number out of them and you'll have a strong indicator of market health.

Price-to-rent ratio This is a wonderful measure that gets at the intrinsic value of a property, but it's a tricky tool for the layman. Rent data include everything from studios to four-bedroom penthouses, making a comparison with single-family homes difficult. Some of the rent data can be found at www.realfacts. com.

Loan quality The popularity of interest-only mortgages could become one of the best indicators of a fragile market, several economists say. Mr. Thornberg of UCLA Anderson says it's a sign that lenders are scraping the bottom of the barrel. "We are close to running out of shills," he says.

Risk The PMI Group of Walnut Creek, Calif., a provider of data to the mortgage industry, estimates how much prices could drop using an econometric model. It publishes the list of at-risk cities at www.pmigroup.com.

Popular sentiment To judge from the media, the housing bubble may have peaked in June. According to a Nexis search of magazines and newspapers, that month was the peak, with 312 references to "housing bubble," almost six times that of a year earlier. It fell 24 percent in July.

Of course, there is one constant: real estate agent sentiment. Most of them will never tire of saying it's a great time to buy. Despite the signs of a slowdown, Mr. Martone, the Providence real estate agent, says prices are holding and he still does not have enough properties to sell. He says, "I am the eternal optimist."


http://www.nytimes.com/2005/08/13/re...gewanted=print
Old 08-14-2005, 11:16 AM
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Originally Posted by PistonFan
Do Try This at Home: Assess Your Area's Real Estate Bubble
By DAMON DARLIN
For the first time since the residential real estate marathon began 13 years ago, parts of the country are showing signs of exhaustion. But if you rely on the experts to declare that a particular area's bubble has popped, you may have waited too long.

So how can a homeowner tell if a market is about to go bust? This may be one of those rare occasions when professionals parsing data are at a disadvantage to regular people watching the market. That's because the main driver of today's market is consumer psychology. Home prices go up as long as people expect them to go up.

When they stop believing, prices fall - and no economist in Washington can get wind of that faster than someone chatting over knockwurst at a neighborhood block party. "Economists looking at the macrodata will be the last to know," said Richard A. Brown, chief economist at the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation.

What you will learn from the professionals who are dutifully crunching numbers is that prices are not falling significantly in any of the hot markets, but in a dozen or so cities in the Northeast and in California, they are near the peak. In Boston, for example, the time that homes are sitting on the market has stretched to 46 days from 39 days a year ago.

An analysis of price appreciation, done for The New York Times by the Joint Center for Housing Studies at Harvard, shows that the price appreciation in cities including New York City; Austin, Tex.; Philadelphia; and Providence, R.I., are decelerating. Appreciation in Detroit and Denver has already slowed to a crawl.

"It's taking a lot longer to sell a home," says Karl A. Martone, a Re/Max Properties agent in Providence, where homes now sit on the market an average of 65 days, up from 14 days a year ago. The region has almost six months of inventory, which is up 35 percent from a year ago.

Vicki Doran, a real estate agent with Coldwell Banker in Providence, says: "It's switching to a buyer's market. Last year buyers had to snap things up. Now they can shop around."

Even a few markets in hard-charging California - San Diego, Orange County and Santa Cruz - are part of the trend, according to data from the first three months of the year. Data for the second quarter to be released by the government on Sept. 1 may confirm the trend. But already Christopher Thornberg, senior forecaster at UCLA Anderson Forecast, a service of the University of California, Los Angeles, says California has "peaked and is already coming down the back side."

On Tuesday, David A. Lereah, the chief economist at the National Association of Realtors, said that the housing market was "probably close to a peak right now."

Take a look at the hot San Diego condo market. In Park Place, one of the many sleek towers of condominiums recently slung up around Petco Park, a one-bedroom condo is offered for $719,000. Someone buying it would expect to make mortgage payments of about $3,775 a month, plus monthly maintenance fees.

But someone really wanting to live in the high-rise, with hardwood floors, granite countertops and city views for a lot less, could rent a nearly identical unit in the same building for $2,400 a month. That is clear evidence prices have to move down. You are more apt to see that the price of residential property no longer is connected to its underlying value than a person looking only at spreadsheets of sales data.

Prices in overheated markets must, by definition, come back down to the mean. Knowing which way the market is headed before buying or selling is extremely important to anyone who wants to protect the wealth tied up in a house. And it certainly matters to anyone who is thinking of buying because it never makes much sense to buy at the top of the market. "The turning point is pretty important," Mr. Brown said, "because the trend will play out for years."

The trouble is, economists have been wrong before when they try to call the market. Three years ago, Dean Baker, co-director of the Center for Economic and Policy Research in Washington, said that it would be only a matter of months before prices began to fall. Prognosticators at the research firm Economy.com declared that the peak was last summer. Celia Chen, the firm's director for housing economics, is now saying that it will come this year.

"The timing is always difficult with these things," admits Ian Morris, chief United States economist at HSBC Securities U.S.A., who made the same call, repeatedly.

John Karevoll, an analyst with DataQuick Information Systems, which provides real estate data to lenders, said: "We've been told for years that the peak is just around the corner. The economists have so much egg on their faces."

Don't be too hard on them. It's the nature of their science. N. Gregory Mankiw, the Harvard University professor and former head of the White House Council of Economic Advisers, made one of the most famous miscalls. In 1989 he wrote a paper arguing that the aging of the baby boomers was going to undermine the housing market in the 1990's and 2000's. Whoops.

Though it appears the shift is now at hand, the end of the bubble will not look anything like the crash in the stock market after the technology bubble. The stock market turns frenetic when investors scramble to get out and prices fall sharply. In housing, however, a collapse is signaled by a sharp drop in activity as people hold off buying. Houses stay on the market longer. Inventories grow. Only then will prices fall, slowly. Economists say prices will lag a slowdown in the market by four to six months.

Some of the data on where a local market is headed is available on the Internet (links are at nytimes.com/business). In other cases, your real estate agent is your best friend. He or she has access to a storehouse of raw data from the local Multiple Listing Service. Here are some indicators to look at:

Market activity How many homes are sold compared with the month before is the earliest indicator, but it is notorious for false positives. But if the number of homes sold starts to drop, perk up. Every county tracks this and makes it available to the public.

Inventory Some of the most crucial pieces of information are held closely by real estate agents. The number of houses on the market is one of them. The national average is 4.3 months; 6 months is closer to normal, the National Association of Realtors says. When it grows, there is trouble coming. Time on the market Agents control access to this information, and be warned: they know how to manipulate it. A house that has been languishing can be taken off and put back to look like a fresh listing. But you'll still be able to see the average time stretching as a clear signal of cooling.

Prices It's what you care about most. But month-to-month comparisons are nearly useless as an indicator because sales of a few houses on either end of the market can skew the figures. DataQuick at www.dqnews.com has some data and the Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight issues quarterly reports.

Failed to sell The super-secret indicator among agents is the number of houses that are quietly taken off the market - usually because they are priced too high. Wheedle the number out of them and you'll have a strong indicator of market health.

Price-to-rent ratio This is a wonderful measure that gets at the intrinsic value of a property, but it's a tricky tool for the layman. Rent data include everything from studios to four-bedroom penthouses, making a comparison with single-family homes difficult. Some of the rent data can be found at www.realfacts. com.

Loan quality The popularity of interest-only mortgages could become one of the best indicators of a fragile market, several economists say. Mr. Thornberg of UCLA Anderson says it's a sign that lenders are scraping the bottom of the barrel. "We are close to running out of shills," he says.

Risk The PMI Group of Walnut Creek, Calif., a provider of data to the mortgage industry, estimates how much prices could drop using an econometric model. It publishes the list of at-risk cities at www.pmigroup.com.

Popular sentiment To judge from the media, the housing bubble may have peaked in June. According to a Nexis search of magazines and newspapers, that month was the peak, with 312 references to "housing bubble," almost six times that of a year earlier. It fell 24 percent in July.

Of course, there is one constant: real estate agent sentiment. Most of them will never tire of saying it's a great time to buy. Despite the signs of a slowdown, Mr. Martone, the Providence real estate agent, says prices are holding and he still does not have enough properties to sell. He says, "I am the eternal optimist."


http://www.nytimes.com/2005/08/13/re...gewanted=print
Good read.
Old 08-14-2005, 12:25 PM
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It is all a little overwhelming, considering I know a few people relying on their homes for retirement income.

I think the "baby boomers" and thier era had juicy retirement plans offered by companies for longevity of employment.

We don't have that luxury anymore as large companies cut back retirement funds and are too quick to make changes based on some computer print-outs.

We are now controlled by computers and machines, pre determining our fate.

I know my parents even though they bought their second home in the eighties at 14% still had more money left over at the end of it all, with a retirement plan to boot they now live in their home paid for and enjoy retirement.

I, like many others have to set up my own retirement fund ect since the company I work for stopped retirement funds some 15 years ago. They just one day gave everybody a raise in leu of benefits and that was the last of it...............

This has to be some of the drive behind the housing market.................
Old 08-14-2005, 03:13 PM
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Can anyone give me a Cliff Note? When is the real estate market expected to crash? I hope it's sometime within the next few years because I'll be graduating this year and will be looking into buying a home (more likely a condo) after working for a couple of years!
Old 08-14-2005, 07:43 PM
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Originally Posted by Reebok AMG
Can anyone give me a Cliff Note? When is the real estate market expected to crash?
November 19th, 2006, at exactly 3:53PM Eastern Standard Time.
Old 08-14-2005, 07:58 PM
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Originally Posted by fdl
November 19th, 2006, at exactly 3:53PM Eastern Standard Time.

Nice - got my calendar marked.

Nostradamus, please keep us abreast of other momentous events (or at least what the winning number for the Megamillions jackpot on Tuesday.)
Old 08-15-2005, 10:40 AM
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Originally Posted by fdl
November 19th, 2006, at exactly 3:53PM Eastern Standard Time.
Old 08-15-2005, 04:40 PM
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Since we all know PistonFan will post this since it is from bloomberg, I will save him the time





U.S. central bankers may need to consider raising interest rates to keep surging property prices from creating a financial crisis or a long-term economic slowdown, a researcher with the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco said.

``While there are hurdles to clear, the door may be open for using higher interest rates to help reduce or contain price bubbles,'' Glenn Rudebusch, the bank's associate research director, said in an interview Aug. 12.

Rudebusch's comments go beyond the stance taken by Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan and the rest of the Federal Open Market Committee, which decided at its June meeting not to use higher rates to address ``possible mispricing'' of assets. Economists such as Merrill Lynch & Co.'s David Rosenberg say the central bank should keep the soaring U.S. housing market from becoming a bubble that damages the economy when it bursts.

Greenspan ``has stated his view and thinks it is delusional to think monetary policy is a good tool for popping asset price bubbles,'' Rudebusch said. ``There's still a lot of research to be done and it's not an open-and-shut case.''

The median U.S. home price surged 51 percent to $219,000 in June from the beginning of the expansion in November 2001, according to the National Association of Realtors. The 15 percent jump from June 2004 was the biggest 12-month gain since 1980.

Greenspan told Congress in testimony earlier this year that while there was ``froth'' in some local real estate markets, there probably isn't a nationwide bubble in home prices.

Two Approaches

Federal Reserve policy makers raised their benchmark U.S. interest rate for a 10th straight time on Aug. 9, to 3.5 percent, to stay ahead of inflation as the world's largest economy accelerates.

Policy makers, in theory, have two choices when asset prices rise in a way that may reflect ``price speculation or irrational investor euphoria,'' Rudebusch said in an Aug. 5 letter posted on the bank's Web site.

One is a ``standard policy'' that uses higher rates to offset increased inflation pressures and rising consumer demand that might be triggered, for example, by a booming stock market, he said.

The other is a ``bubble policy'' that goes further and tries to reduce the size of the bubble by setting interest rates ``even higher.'' Some surging asset prices may hurt the economy in a way that's difficult to undo, he said. The dot-com bubble, for instance, ``spurred overinvestment in fiber-optic cable and decimated the provision of venture capital for new technology startups for years.''

Answering Questions

Central bankers need to answer three questions before taking a bubble policy approach, Rudebusch said. The first is whether a bubble can be identified. Another is whether the fallout from such a bubble will be significant and hard to correct later. The third is whether interest rates are the best tool for addressing rising asset prices.

``It is possible to conceive of a situation in which reducing the bubble in advance is a preferred policy strategy,'' Rudebusch said.

During 1999 and 2000, when the Dow Jones Industrial Average, Nasdaq Composite Index and Standard & Poor's 500 Index climbed to record levels, central bankers didn't try to deflate prices. The consequences ``from the apparent boom and bust in equity prices arguably have been manageable,'' the researcher wrote.

Greenspan is opposed to attacking bubbles as they form. ``The evidence of recent years, as well as the events of the late 1920s, cast doubt on the proposition that bubbles can be defused gradually,'' Greenspan said in December 2002. ``Among our realistically limited alternatives, dealing aggressively with the aftermath of a bubble appears the most likely to avert long-term damage to the economy.''

Rudebusch said ``there is no bottom line on the appropriate policy response to asset price bubbles.'' Further research and experience are needed to settle the debate, he said.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...d=alW4zsRpyPuM
Old 08-15-2005, 06:06 PM
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Originally Posted by Silver™
Since we all know PistonFan will post this since it is from bloomberg, I will save him the time


Silver, stealing teh thunder from PistonFan....muhahah - I will have teh last word.

Okay - you can rule R&P, if I can have M&I.
Old 08-15-2005, 06:14 PM
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Originally Posted by PistonFan
Okay - you can rule R&P, if I can have M&I.

Old 08-15-2005, 06:51 PM
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Homeowners: Upside-down is no way to be

Americans own a lower percentage of their homes than in the past, increasing risk.
August 5, 2005: 12:55 PM EDT
By Les Christie, CNN/Money staff writer


NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - So much for the American dream.

As more and more people have rushed to be homeowners, they actually own less of their homes than they have in decades...adding another risk factor to the overheated real estate market.

On average, homeowners have 56.3 percent equity in their homes, according to Demos, a public-interest research group. In 1973, equity averaged 68.3 percent; in the 1950s, it was upwards of 80 percent.

Two main factors are at work:


Homeowners are starting off further behind. In the past, the standard downpayment was 20 percent. A 2003 National Association of Realtors survey reported than less than half of all home buyers now put that much down; many obtain 100 percent, even 103 percent, financing.


Homeowners are yanking out cash. From 2001 through 2004, Americans took $330 billion in equity out of their homes, according Freddie Mac. In 2005 alone, they'll pull out as much as $160 billion.

Demos's senior research associate and author of A House of Cards: Refinancing the American Dream, Javier Silva, said that, even in the absence of a real estate crash, many families "are facing a financial crisis," partially because they've taken on more mortgage debt.

Already, the average American's financial obligations ratio (FOR) -- all your regular bills you must pay each month compared with income -- has expanded to 18.45 percent. That's up from about 15.5 percent in the early 1980s, and among the highest since the Federal Reserve began calculating the statistic.

Put to new uses
Until recently, according to Silva, homeowners cashed out home equity to pay for home renovations, college tuition, or maybe to start new businesses, all of which are reasonable motives.

Today, though, Silva says, many mortgage brokers have convinced consumers to cash out equity to buy new cars, boats, or other big ticket items.

But using home equity that way, he says, "is extremely risky. You're pulling equity out of your home ?that's your family's security. And you're mixing bad credit with good."

He means that instead of paying off, say, a car loan in three or four years, paying for it by cashing out home equity adds the car cost to your mortgage. With interest rates so low, that may sound tempting.

But over a 30-year, six percent mortgage, that $20,000 car will cost more than $43,000, including interest, and you can still be paying for it long after it has hit the scrap heap.

Retiring bad debt
Some are also using home equity to pay off credit card debt.

Gerri Detweiler, author of The Ultimate Credit Handbook, has mixed feelings about cashing out home equity to pay off plastic. "Done properly, it can be beneficial," she said.

Before cashing out, though, Detweiler says your other financial fundamentals should be on solid ground -- don't take this step if you just got hit with a big pay cut -- and make sure you can handle the bigger mortgage payment.

And just because you can pay off it high-interest debt with low-interest debt, doesn't mean you shouldn't address why you're racking up debt in the first place.

If you just keep spending, you'll be worse off, because you won't have as much home-equity cushion.

Code red
Silva worries that if housing prices flatten out or decline, some newer homeowners who have built up little equity, could find themselves "upside down" -- owing more than their houses are worth.

And, if interest rates rise, homeowners with adjustable rate mortgages may not be able to keep up higher payments or sell the house for what they paid. Foreclosures could spike and the supply of homes for sale soar. That could send real estate market into a tumble.

"That's the scenario I'm most afraid of," said Silva, "and it's one that few economists acknowledge."

The thinking is that houses will maintain their value, as they have in the past, when housing never fell much more than 10 percent to 15 percent. "But prices are much higher than before in many markets," said Silva. Overinflated real estate, potentially, has a lot further to fall.


http://money.cnn.com/2005/08/04/real...ling/index.htm
Old 08-15-2005, 06:56 PM
  #279  
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Come on PF, there are plenty of housing bubble articles, you don't have to repost ones you already posted

https://acurazine.com/forums/showpos...&postcount=218
Old 08-15-2005, 07:06 PM
  #280  
I feel the need...
 
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Doh! You got me...so good I had to post twice.

Doubly true though...


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