Biden is going to spend Billions installing EV chargers so it will happen at apartments and businesses. Problem solved. Next
New cars don't cost $10k, they buy used, the topic is new car sales, not relevant. Tesla is currently designing a $25k vehicle, let's say it's actually $30k, and you still get the $7.5k credit, EVs cost less to own and maintain, also many people who bought a model 3 turned in a Civic to get one not an expensive vehicle, people are splurging to get one. Next.
There are many people who drive 40-50 thousand miles a year in a Tesla Model 3 with todays current EV charging infrastructure and don't get stranded on the side of the road, again Biden plans to significantly improve the charging infrastructure so this is FUD.

 

I swear if we replaced Biden with Trump in the paragraph below, i would think we are back in 2020 again.

Nothing against Biden, but he aint God.. matter of fact, he is not even the Chosen One.

 

Lol....the $7500 "tax credit" is a misnomer.




https://www.autoweek.com/news/a36433...its-explained/

 

yah i thought i could deduct all my jackpot winnings as losses and it turned out to be penny on a dollar reduction...

I wonder if i changed my withholding to 0 would have helped

 

Yep - I think all these things being said, I think there is going to be a near-term surge in EVs but it's going to be in that market I identified - suburban people who have a 50-90k car budget, a garage, and the willingness to spring for level 2 charging at home.

But that market is only so big. And I think that's where it's going to stall out. They make Civics and Corollas for a reason. And sure, there will be EVs that do a better job getting to those price points as time goes by but I don't see many in the pipeline aside from Hyundai/Kia. And still these need to be buyers with homes and garages and a willingness to install at-home charging.

But short of some drastic measures by the government or infrastructure, it's going to an evolution not a revolution.

 

LMAO so much stupid where do I begin. Tesla just released a report describing how they'll be able to recycle and reuse 92% of an EVs battery pack. It's been showed over and over and over again that an EV powered by 100% coal has less Co2 emissions than an ICE vehicle. Also coal is dead, its usage in the US Energy Mix has plummeted in the past decade, and renewable energy has been the leading source of new energy for a few years now. Stop watching Fox News, stop reading the WSJ Opinion page

 

This is what some of y'all wish life was like


I'm thinking of replacing my 2-stroke toaster with a 4-stroke toaster, Rock Auto is running a sale on them. I'm eyeing that Honda dishwasher with the i-VTEC power wash cycle, I hear it sounds sick when it kicks in

 

 

I think the Automotive Industry chart showing the projected ICE sale is a wet dream for EV makers.
No more gas engine cars by 2028 or 2029 means the current major auto companies would go bankrupt. And we all know they are too big to fail.


And even if they get to the point of having a common charging connector EV cars, I think there is still a huge inconvenience with EV currently.
One of the biggest nuisance I have is remembering to plug it into an outet every evening (or everytime the car is parked).
In a nutshell.... No charge in car = cannot go to work = no pay

Next come wireless charging for EV.

I'm not against EV, just want it to be convenient and affordable with no change in lifestyle .

 

You seem to want this EV revolution but you want to ignore every meaningful step ACTUALLY needed to get there.

EVERYTHING I said is relevant and a real problem.
Biden's plan will not even scratch the surface getting chargers out there to erase ICEs by 2029. And you are ignoring the strain on the grid that has to be addressed. Problem not solved.
As for new cars - so what if Tesla is building a $30k vehicle - where is it? This vaporware is going to show up in time and EVERYONE is this country is going to buy one instead of an ICE by 2029? Come on. And the Tax credits you are relying on don't last forever. And there are TONS of people out there who aren't even in the $25k market. Problem still not solved.
As for the Tesla drivers driving 40k and doing just fine - are you serious offering what amounts to be a unicorn that is blessed with the intersection of a lifestyle and/or job that has that kind of access to level 3 charging as your example its not a problem? Whoever that one person is lives in SoCal no doubt. Explain to me how a person with that same need gets along in Nebraska. I've read plenty of articles by people documenting what it's like taking a long road trip in an EV. Their route isn't based on where they want to go, it's based on where they can charge up. And it presents a problem.

Look I'm all for a 100% EV future. And I do think eventually ICE sales go to zero at some point. But I'm not going to spin wishes and fantasies and turn them into factual claims that no one is selling an ICE in 8 years.

 

Has he been smoking crack? or he loves electricity so much, he has been shocking himself with it?

 

I think some of us may see EV take over ICE in our lifetime; but, in the next 10 years? No fucking way.

 

Hey be nice, just because someone has a different opinion than yours doesn't mean it's ok to trash talk their views.

 

Some of the issues i see with EV;
1. inability to service the vehicle yourself
2. recycling batteries
I think manufacturers will force the gas engine to be obsolete by ending production.

 

The film industry said the same thing about digital versus celluloid...it took over in less than 5 years.

I make no bets here. But I've watched this argument play out before, and it always happens sooner than people want to think.

 

1) Lets be honest. With most new cars, how easy is self maintenance? Those cars are just as much computer and made difficult by the manufacturers to work on. This is a non-issue really
2) Its already been happening. Do the research.

 

Ignore Stunna...he's the idiot who so desperately wants to believe he is smart...who also doesnt own an EV...who wants to champion it and makes other EV owners look bad.

 

What is the life expectancy if an EV battery? What is the cost to replace it?

 

both questions will have sliding scale answers. depends on the battery tech and how you charge...running through cycles v charging toonly 80-90%. there are some teslas with over 400k miles and battery life is in the high 80% range.

Not sure of current cost as most warranties are for at least 10 years but cost will go down as battery tech improves.

 

I think manufacturers just discontinuing ICEs may be the ultimate forcing function, but they'll need to be very careful. The EV market can only grow as fast as the charging infrastructure and the charging capabilities will allow. Supply of cars won't be the problem. Charging will.

At home charging will be how people deal with this in the near term, but that has a limit. Tons of people need the ability to make a 600 mile one way trip in a single day, where you have to recharge along the way at least once. And that will not only need to be abundantly convenient, but also fast. We can't really get to zero ICEs until that problem (and the other practical problems I mentioned for people who don't have at-home charging) get addressed.

And auto makers will build whatever there is a market for.

I may be on the forum in 2029 - I'll come back to this post then. My prediction is EVs will be 30-40% of the market by then, largely supported by at-home charging but I doubt few people will be 100% EV families. I strongly suspect most people will own one of each if they have an EV.

 

This is an old story but also the reason I'm skeptical of manufacturer claims. I bought a Honda Civic Hybrid in 2002, back when the only other hybrids were a Prius or Insight. I asked this same question then, what happens after 8 years and the battery needs to be replaced? I got this wonderful song-and-dance number about how the packs were $3500 now but Honda believed by 2010 they'd be $500, so nothing I had to worry about. I didn't own the car in 2010 but I did investigate the cost of battery pack replacement at the time - $3,200. Just for a hybrid battery pack.

Now that was a long time ago and I think most proponents of EVs will also want to spin the same tale about how affordable replacement packs will be in 8-10 years, but the fact remains these battery packs are the most expensive part of the car by a far margin. So what happens when someone's 10 year old EV needs a $6,000 battery pack replacement to keep running? What happens to the resale value of used EVs edging up on the life span of their battery? I think a lot of these questions are being ignored, or being downed out by more cheer-leading that "everything will be OK don't worry about it".

Now I do think that demand and economies of scale will come into play. However we also need to consider this is an item that HAS to be replaced (if it's failing) and they know that. How affordable do we think something is going to be when we have no choice? Imagine if an ICE only lasted 10-15 years and had to be replaced - they would charge as much as they could get away with because it's either that or get rid of a car that can't run.

 

Cost of EVs:

Let us not forget about not having to pay for gasoline. although algorithms will, in my view, be set up to monitor EV use for taxing purposes if not already being done by some states.

 

Le sigh... As probably one of two (maybe 3?) people on this forum that actually owns an EV let me hop in here...

You're going to need to evaluate the EV market well before 10 years from now. It's time to start taking it seriously here and now. If you have the means for an EV and the desire for a new car, I'd highly recommend taking a look at one as it'll likely make the choice pretty easy for you. I was on the verge of pulling the trigger on a F80 M3 but decided to get a M3P instead because it's faster, more spacious, better performing, more comfortable, lower upkeep, lower insurance, etc etc etc and I never need to replace the brakes or visit a gas station again...unless I'm in my 14mpg gas guzzler. Don't let the "lack of soul" BS blind you, it's not true. The M3P is an incredibly fun to drive car that is probably the best all around daily driver you can find here and now.

The thing you have completely back asswords is that you seem to think that EV's will obtain widespread adoption before the supporting infrastructure is there. That is 10000% not going to happen. Gas pumps will become less profitable if and when EV chargers become more profitable and they won't become more profitable until there are enough of them and enough customers to use them. Customers won't be present unless the service is present. It's a total chicken or egg situation on this one. Until gas stations start installing chargers everywhere, the widespread adoption of EV's just won't happen.

Also, people who buy any car will lose money on it. The current market for used cars is not normal and doesn't represent historical trends. Also, it's not going to be forever.

Suburban and rural users are 100% the target market. It's easy for them to install the required charging means at their residence, way more so than urban users. A range of 300 miles is FAR FAR FAR more than enough for 99.9% of drivers to go between overnight charges. Driving 300 miles a day is not something the incredibly vast majority of people don't do...that's 78000 miles a year just driving 300 miles M-F. Also remember that the car uses very little battery when sitting still so traffic jams don't really affect range all that much. Higher speeds use more energy than lower speeds. The route you mentioned (Baltimore to DC) is ~40 miles. You could make that trip nearly 8 times (one way) on a single full charge. That is beyond sufficient for daily driving. If you have a house with a garage or means to install a charger at your home then there's very little reason to not get an EV for daily driving.

I have owned my car for 2 months now and have never had one ounce of range anxiety in my day to day driving and I most certainly do not plug it in every night. I have yet to do a longer road trip in it but I will soon.

That's because they had a nearly 7 or 8 year head start over everyone else.

Almost all charging stations are parking style for obvious reasons. The good part of EV charging is that adapters are pretty easy to make. You can get an adapter from Tesla plug to J1772 or CHAdeMO pretty easy. They're releasing a CCS one soon as well.

Absolutely on the first part.

On the second part I'd question your ability to do basic tasks if you can't take the literally 5 seconds to plug your car in when you get home. When I do plug it in, I grab my bag from the trunk and plug it in on my way past the charge port. Takes no time at all. Also, the VAST majority of people don't need to plug in anywhere close to daily and once you get close to empty then you plug it in just like you would go get gas. It's not hard at all and not a scenario that would be super common. Also, you'd do it once and only once before you learned your lesson.

This is probably the most misguided post on here. There's no reason to charge to 100%. There's no reason to swap batteries. I've explained it before, it takes 30 mins to go from 5% to 80%, that's more than enough for 4 HOURS of driving which is more than pretty much anyone is going to do without wanting to pee and eat which would take at least that amount of time. Most of the time you don't even need 80% for your next leg and, in that case, the charge is done in 15mins or less to get to 50%. I've most definitely spent 15 mins at a gas station on a road trip, how about you? Daily charging is done at home, not remote so that's even more of a non issue.

If you can't get over the lack of sound then that's a different problem. Enjoy the silent fury of the EV. Walk tall and carry a big stick amirite?

I didn't buy an EV for the environment. I bought it because it's fast as duck and a blast to drive while being perfectly suited to my daily driving habits of 90% city only driving with short distances. I own a lifted box that gets 14mpg (on a good day) as my other car.

The further out of the city you go the more space you have so adding chargers gets to be easier. Also, the further out you go, the more people have a house/townhome and can install their own charger. Having an EV plug is a really great incentive that is relatively low cost compared to many other things. There are lots of newer upscale buildings here in the MSP area that have plugs for charging in EVERY SPOT. It's getting more and more common. I also just got a new job and my new office has 5 EV chargers on site and is planning to add 5 more this fall. If you live in a rough/rural area where the demand isn't there then they obviously wouldn't have such things.

Also, my parents just built a house and apparently it's now standard practice to put in two 240V outlets in the garage to facilitate EV charging in new builds in MN. I don't think it's code or anything, just something they do.

It's not expensive to do at all. The big cost is running the wires and that's a one time expense. Charge (punny ) either a monthly or one time fee or nothing at all for the spot and call it good. You end up attracting more well off tenants who are more reliable and have deeper pockets if you offer amenities like this. Reliable tenants with deeper pockets is very desirable for apartment complexes. Can also end up charging more for the unit with a benefit like that as well.

The Q5 is a PHEV with a L1 charger lol, that's not nearly the same thing.

Comfy and Stunna's minds are certainly rather warped but so are a lot of the opinions on here as well. Living with it is really not any worse than living with a gas car and is, in many cases, a LOT better than a gas car. Also, I don't know about you but it costs me < $8 to add 300 miles of range to my car.

Tesla also designed a $35k Model 3 that no one bought because it was such a stripped down POS that the value proposition wasn't there. The cheap Tesla is a marketing gimmick that no one buys. I'll believe the $25k one when I see it. Also the tax credit for a Tesla is gone and has been for several years.

For many people, buying a Tesla is buying the badge which is why people pony up over a Civic, it's not because they hella want an EV lol. Cars are all around getting more expensive and seeing people snatch up SR+ Model 3's isn't surprising at all.

100%. If you don't have the ability to charge at home, DO NOT BUY AN EV. You will not like it, I promise. If you can charge at home, there's no better daily driver right now. The remote charging infrastructure is, as we all know, not there enough for someone who cannot charge at home to have an EV without really going out of their way to use it. The advantage of having it at home makes the EV life a piece of cake and is definitely the only way to do it.

There are many older Teslas in the 300k-400k range with the OG battery. Either way, the warranty on the battery is 8 years and 120k miles. That's more than enough for me.

 

2002 was 20 YEARS ago. While the cost has certainly not gone down, the technology has improved by light years over a Civic Hybrid of that era. Not to mention that the 1G Civic Hybrid used Ni-MH batteries that no one uses anymore because they suck. As of right now there's no evidence that EV batteries are a routinely replaced part. They are replaced if they go out but that's not very often.

MN charges a $75 surcharge on yearly registration for EV's to recover some of the gas tax you're not paying. That said, at a tax rate of $0.285/gal, that $75 is 290 gallons of fuel you're paying the tax on. Driving at ~30mpg that's 8750 miles a year. If you drive more than that, and most people do, you're coming out ahead on taxes.

 

I'm not sure that mileage would be an accurate way to measure battery life. It would seem that time, or number of charging cycles, would be more relevant to a battery. Nonetheless, replacement costs seem to be prohibitive for most owners, making the car disposable when the battery goes.

 

Road taxes are being considered as we sit here today. With more EVs coming online, requires that there has to be a way to make up for lost gas taxes. So, tax per miles driven, seems to be the leading candidate for revenue. I'm sure weight of the vehicle will also be a factor in the calculated tax rate.

 

True but that is IF the battery goes. The 8 year 120k warranty is either battery failure or less than 70% of original capacity available and they'll give you a new one. A battery totalling a 10 year old EV is no different than an engine or trans failure totalling a 10 year old any other car. Either way, this does not seem to be the case.

This is the data that Tesla has on higher mileage Model S and X (they are the oldest ones) for battery degradation over mileage.



This lines up well with the anecdotal comments from owners as well.

Getting data on per mile driven is going to be close to impossible. A flat tax seems to work for now but guessing we'll see that change over time.

 

From what I've read, and this is of coure very preliminary, a monitoring device of some sort will be installed on each car.

 

We can't even get people to take a life saving vaccine because they think it implants a chip in them, there is zero chance of this happening.

 

I can't think of a transition that's been slow and linear, every single time everyone says it will be, and it never is. This transition will be slower than others because of supply and manufacturing issues but it'll be much quicker than y'all expect.

Gas sales are already collapsing in Norway

Norway shows us glimpse of the future as electric cars make gas-powered car sales vanish

 

I am, of course, hoping for the best. If these batteries have the same life span as an ICE (lets say 20 years if properly cared for) then that's good. Puts the concern on par with how most folks would view an ICE. I suppose over time we could all come to expect that kind of life span. Unfortunately we won't have much real-world data to appeal to for some time to come however, aside from mathematical predictions.

 

veery true. So current cars on the road will probably be charged a flat tax. But as soon as the legislation is passed all future generation cars, starting with model year 20xx, will come from the factory with the device. This is of course just conjecture on my part.

 

Tesla's drivetrain is designed and tested to last 1 million miles. The next gen battery is also designed to last that long, current gen is 300-500k miles

 

I dont know about you... I forget to charge my phone overnight all the time... but forgetting to charge my phone is not a big deal as i could charge it anywhere anytime. But i am sure there will be a time when I will forget to charge your car... especially if you dont have to charge it everyday.
I used my coworker's Q5 as an example to show that not everyone has L2 charger and not everyone lives close to a super charging station. most of the people will not and could not spend thousands to install L2 chargers for various reasons. As of 2021, EV is still for upper middle class and above. Not for everyone.

It works for you because you have other cars and $$ to support the EV... If EV was your ONLY car like most of the people in the US, and making $40k a year, it would be a very different story.

That is why EV works for some, but not most as of 2021. and somehow that will change within the next several years? i just dont see it happening.

$8 for 300 miles or $60 (for me in LA) for 300 miles makes little difference to me That is not a reason that would make me switch to EV.

IMO, during this transition period, a plug in hybrid would make the most sense to most people, They can charge overnight with regular charger providing some E-miles that would offset all or some of the gas miles.... they will save $$ without worrying about all the disvantages of EV.

 

We're talking about EVs in general. The world isn't going to revolve around just muskrat-mobiles.

There are enough muskrat threads here anyway.

 

Norway is a very different use case from the US. They have massive incentives, cheap energy, and relatively short distances to travel compared to what we have here.

 

EU also have wagon, diesel and they actually care about the environment...


I thought only SSFTSX uses EU and Asia for irrelevant comparisons

 

So are gas cars. Unfortunately testing in controlled conditions is very different from the uncontrolled environment run by idiots that these products end up going to.

I plug my phone in every night, have yet to forget. Either way, you'd have several days of reminders to plug it in before it got really bad. The point is that you have enough range in the "tank" to make your daily commute for days before it runs low. It shows the range on the screen all the time so when you pull in, just plug it in. If you can't manage that then you have the attention span of a goldfish and probably can't afford the car anyway. That and you'd have the same issues with filling your gas tank up. The Q5 is not the same thing. You definitely don't need a L2 charger to run a 14kWh battery lol.

The "EV is for upper middle class" is absolutely true. But the same can be said for BMW, Lexus, Audi, MB, Volvo, high end trucks, Caddy's, Denalis, Lincolns, etc etc etc that all sell like cray cray. A Model 3 LR plus the ~$1500 it would cost to install a charger in your house is probably about the same price or cheaper than a BMW 330i with similar features and that's before you factor in upkeep, insurance, and fuel costs all with worse performance lol. Money is not the issue here, it might be for really widespread adoption but overall, there's a gigantic market for luxury or near luxury models in that $50k-$80k range.

EV as only car can definitely work depending on your use case. Similarly your BMW would probably be pretty shitty if your job was to tow a trailer around. Buy the best tool for the job and if the job is commute to work and back with the occasional road trip then an EV makes all the sense in the world.

Agreed that there's no way widespread adoption is happening anytime soon. The market is there, the infrastructure is not. Big reason I bought a Tesla is for the supercharger network. Next car I buy probably won't be one though as other makes will certainly have caught up in the next 3-4 years. But I will definitely buy another EV for a daily. That said, for a fun car...three pedals and lots of noise.

 

How much is your daily commute that if you forget to charge one day, you won’t be able to get to work the next day???
Is your office located 100 miles away? Then it may be true what you say. Any in case if you are driving 200-300 miles every (M -F) then you must be driving 60-75000 miles yearly, right?
What’s the mileage on your current car…..?
yeah… we figured that you are making up a scenario. LOL.
Any how much are you paying for gas in that case….?

Just your fuel savings in a few years could buy you another Tesla if you go all EV. .

 

This is an exceptionally good read for those interested more in the environmental impact assessment of EV vs ICE done by MIT.

https://energy.mit.edu/wp-content/up...ve-Summary.pdf