Future of gasoline only cars
#121
Team Owner
One day... maybe we can charge electricity wirelessly OTA.... but then whatever that tech is probably can be used to kill people
BMW did try the "charging Pad" with their 5 series.... but then again, your neighbor could just jack your charging pad
BMW did try the "charging Pad" with their 5 series.... but then again, your neighbor could just jack your charging pad
#122
Ex-OEM King
Lockable charge ports would fix that problem. Can only be unlocked if car is unlocked or via app.
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00TL-P3.2 (09-24-2021)
#123
Team Owner
Not so much issue in your own garage. But in public places, especially apartment complex...
It used to be breaking your windows, steal your emblems, your wheels and now we can add charger to the list
#124
Team Owner
Also, there are soooo many people who dont have designated parking spaces whether that is because too many cars under that same roof. or hording shit in the garage
Alot of them park on the street. That is why all the street parkings are full at night time and weekends around where I live.
How are those ppl going to charge?
So many real life problems to solve...
Alot of them park on the street. That is why all the street parkings are full at night time and weekends around where I live.
How are those ppl going to charge?
So many real life problems to solve...
#125
Ex-OEM King
Looks like they'll need to either A. Clean the shit out of their garage or B. Use the public charger on the regular.
Things have to change, 100 years ago people were probably complaining about where to tie up and feed their horse with all the cars now taking up space.
Things have to change, 100 years ago people were probably complaining about where to tie up and feed their horse with all the cars now taking up space.
#126
Sanest Florida Man
When Do Fossil Fuel Car Sales Collapse?
https://cleantechnica.com/2021/08/10...ales-collapse/
People don't usually wait to replace their car until it's Found On the Road Dead, so people will see that ICE cars are dead, many won't buy a new ICE car and will drive their old car around a few more years while they wait for an EV. This leads to a decline in overall vehicle sales since due to battery supply constraints (which was one of the main points of Tesla's battery day in 2020), barring a miraculous technological breakthrough EVs production won't be able to scale as fast as the demand for EVs will.
So maybe Comfy is right in the sense that half of the market would want an EV by 2025 but there won't be enough batteries to make EVs to meet that demand by 2025. So people won't buy ICE vehicles while they wait, and that will be the critical time period where legacy auto will be fucked. Demand for their more profitable ICE vehicles will plummet and they won't be able to make enough of their less profitable EVs to stay afloat. If I were them I'd cut shareholder dividends and start saving money to try and make it through that perilous few years.
Nah, they'll just get a bailout from ol Joe
Here's another projection of how it may go
https://youtu.be/ESGQTDhJka4?t=926
IDK why the video isn't embedding for me, is this a limitation of this subforum?
Last edited by #1 STUNNA; 10-12-2021 at 12:24 PM.
#127
Senior Moderator
Also, there are soooo many people who dont have designated parking spaces whether that is because too many cars under that same roof. or hording shit in the garage
Alot of them park on the street. That is why all the street parkings are full at night time and weekends around where I live.
How are those ppl going to charge?
So many real life problems to solve...
Alot of them park on the street. That is why all the street parkings are full at night time and weekends around where I live.
How are those ppl going to charge?
So many real life problems to solve...
#128
Sanest Florida Man
Until recently, car companies not named Tesla had a general stance on electric vehicles: We’ll start making them en masse, when people start buying them en masse.
The late Fiat-Chrysler Chief Executive Officer Sergio Marchionne went so far as to implore drivers not to buy his company’s seminal electric Fiat; the unit economics were so poor, he reasoned, that he lost money on every sale ($14,000 by Marchionne’s math).
Well, people are buying electric vehicles now, partly because the climate is simmering closer to a boil and partly because the auto industry is finally making appealing battery-powered machines in volume. Ultimately, the whither and why is less important than the what.
Expert insight into the future of carsGet Bloomberg.com's Hyperdrive newsletter.Drivers around the world will buy about 5.6 million electric passenger vehicles this year, according to a new report from BloombergNEF released in concert with the COP26 United Nations Climate Change Conference. That’s almost double the number purchased last year and, more importantly, it represents almost 8% of all vehicle sales.
“We are seeing some more organic demand for EVs,” Aleksandra O’Donovan, one of the BNEF analysts who authored the report, commented via email. Among the factors affecting this rise: “One, the wider choice of electric vehicles now available to customers, and even more importantly, vehicles addressing those sought after segments like the SUVs,” O’Donovan said.
Also, EV sales are 20% or more of total vehicle sales for several European automakers, including Volvo and Daimler. And there are more than 500 models of EVs and fuel cell vehicles available for sale today — just six years ago, that figure was under 100.
Charging often has been cited as the reason why adoption wasn’t happening more quickly. But the narrative around the dearth of public charging infrastructure creating a bottleneck to EV adoption also is set to change, as consumers more and more are taking matters into their own hands. Garages and parking lots will see some 2.1 million vehicle chargers installed this year, according to the BNEF report, a 63% increase over the number of private plugs at the start of the year.
Meanwhile, electric motors are being put to work, in trucks, buses and tractors. BloombergNEF expects commercial buyers to purchase 150,000 electric vehicles this year, also nearly double last year’s tally. Stretching how far these machines can travel between charges plus predictable drive cycles and relatively low maintenance costs increasingly tilt the economics in favor of things like electric mail trucks and battery-powered flower delivery vans.
BNEF’s O’Donovan’s cautions there still is work to be done to get road transport on a path to a net-zero fleet by 2050. “Sales of combustion vehicles need to essentially stop around 2035,” she said. “Automakers accounting for only 19% of the global passenger vehicle market have stated their intentions to stop selling ICE vehicles by then.”
Indeed, it will be years before electric vehicles outsell their gas-powered siblings. But change, as they say, happens very slowly and then all at once. And it’s no longer happening slowly.
The late Fiat-Chrysler Chief Executive Officer Sergio Marchionne went so far as to implore drivers not to buy his company’s seminal electric Fiat; the unit economics were so poor, he reasoned, that he lost money on every sale ($14,000 by Marchionne’s math).
Well, people are buying electric vehicles now, partly because the climate is simmering closer to a boil and partly because the auto industry is finally making appealing battery-powered machines in volume. Ultimately, the whither and why is less important than the what.
Expert insight into the future of carsGet Bloomberg.com's Hyperdrive newsletter.Drivers around the world will buy about 5.6 million electric passenger vehicles this year, according to a new report from BloombergNEF released in concert with the COP26 United Nations Climate Change Conference. That’s almost double the number purchased last year and, more importantly, it represents almost 8% of all vehicle sales.
“We are seeing some more organic demand for EVs,” Aleksandra O’Donovan, one of the BNEF analysts who authored the report, commented via email. Among the factors affecting this rise: “One, the wider choice of electric vehicles now available to customers, and even more importantly, vehicles addressing those sought after segments like the SUVs,” O’Donovan said.
Also, EV sales are 20% or more of total vehicle sales for several European automakers, including Volvo and Daimler. And there are more than 500 models of EVs and fuel cell vehicles available for sale today — just six years ago, that figure was under 100.
Charging often has been cited as the reason why adoption wasn’t happening more quickly. But the narrative around the dearth of public charging infrastructure creating a bottleneck to EV adoption also is set to change, as consumers more and more are taking matters into their own hands. Garages and parking lots will see some 2.1 million vehicle chargers installed this year, according to the BNEF report, a 63% increase over the number of private plugs at the start of the year.
Meanwhile, electric motors are being put to work, in trucks, buses and tractors. BloombergNEF expects commercial buyers to purchase 150,000 electric vehicles this year, also nearly double last year’s tally. Stretching how far these machines can travel between charges plus predictable drive cycles and relatively low maintenance costs increasingly tilt the economics in favor of things like electric mail trucks and battery-powered flower delivery vans.
BNEF’s O’Donovan’s cautions there still is work to be done to get road transport on a path to a net-zero fleet by 2050. “Sales of combustion vehicles need to essentially stop around 2035,” she said. “Automakers accounting for only 19% of the global passenger vehicle market have stated their intentions to stop selling ICE vehicles by then.”
Indeed, it will be years before electric vehicles outsell their gas-powered siblings. But change, as they say, happens very slowly and then all at once. And it’s no longer happening slowly.
#129
Three Wheelin'
Fuel Car Sales "Might" be Collapsing because:
1) People that like exciting cars are getting older and dying off.
2) Millennials no longer want to own a vehicle and haven't for a long time, be it fuel or electric. Future projections are always way off. They will call UBER. Besides, it is hard to drive and text at the same time. LOL
I've driven a Porsche Taycan and Taycan Turbo S. I much prefer my RDX as a daily driver. And besides, I have a Pfaff sewing machine if I need to listen to something that is electric.
1) People that like exciting cars are getting older and dying off.
2) Millennials no longer want to own a vehicle and haven't for a long time, be it fuel or electric. Future projections are always way off. They will call UBER. Besides, it is hard to drive and text at the same time. LOL
I've driven a Porsche Taycan and Taycan Turbo S. I much prefer my RDX as a daily driver. And besides, I have a Pfaff sewing machine if I need to listen to something that is electric.
#130
Team Owner
^ Everything you said above is Bullshit.
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#131
Old Man Yelling at Clouds
I just got around to reading my Car and Driver from a couple months ago that had the reader response letters from the previous magazine which named the Mustang Mach-e "EV of the year". I was surprised at the hate for EVs in general. Sure, they pick the colorful replies for the magazine and all but it was like 2 pages of really irrational nonsense. You'd think the government was out actively seizing their Corvettes and F-150's from their garage the way they pissed and moaned.
I fully suspect EVs will gain a respectable market share in 10 years. But if folks think 100% adoption is around the corner they haven't met the group that sounds a lot like "you'll take my ICE from my cold, dead hands". I think if you forced them to ride in an EV to get a COVID shot they might just form a militia. If EVs appear to be forced upon some folks they are going to dig in. Hard.
I fully suspect EVs will gain a respectable market share in 10 years. But if folks think 100% adoption is around the corner they haven't met the group that sounds a lot like "you'll take my ICE from my cold, dead hands". I think if you forced them to ride in an EV to get a COVID shot they might just form a militia. If EVs appear to be forced upon some folks they are going to dig in. Hard.
Last edited by 1Louder; 11-30-2021 at 05:07 PM.
#132
Team Owner
There is no natural "hate" for EV. Rather, it is a reaction to all the cult like propaganda that EV crowd is trying to imply.
I personally have no hate for Mustang Mach-E. even though i dont like the idea of them using the name Mustang but i also understand why they did it. I think it is a great EV and It is one of the top 2 EVs if i were ever to buy an EV.
The EV "Hatttters" are very different than Anti Vaccines/Masks Trumpettes.
I personally have no hate for Mustang Mach-E. even though i dont like the idea of them using the name Mustang but i also understand why they did it. I think it is a great EV and It is one of the top 2 EVs if i were ever to buy an EV.
The EV "Hatttters" are very different than Anti Vaccines/Masks Trumpettes.
#133
Old Man Yelling at Clouds
There is no natural "hate" for EV. Rather, it is a reaction to all the cult like propaganda that EV crowd is trying to imply.
I personally have no hate for Mustang Mach-E. even though i dont like the idea of them using the name Mustang but i also understand why they did it. I think it is a great EV and It is one of the top 2 EVs if i were ever to buy an EV.
The EV "Hatttters" are very different than Anti Vaccines/Masks Trumpettes.
I personally have no hate for Mustang Mach-E. even though i dont like the idea of them using the name Mustang but i also understand why they did it. I think it is a great EV and It is one of the top 2 EVs if i were ever to buy an EV.
The EV "Hatttters" are very different than Anti Vaccines/Masks Trumpettes.
Anyway I guess I was just surprised. I always figured if folks don't like EVs then....you know...don't buy one. I don't see any point in railing against them. I didn't think the emotions ran that deep but I guess they do. Something EV manufacturers should not ignore or underestimate I think.
#134
The Third Ball
Join Date: Sep 2002
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My overall point, that I didn't state very well, is there exists a surprisingly large group of people who will resist anything the government wants them to do, regardless of the topic. To your point a common objection was EVs being shoved down their throat by the government. That's why I included the gentle jab at vaccinations because its the same mindset. But there was also hate for the cars themselves. Mostly enthusiasts where the engine is the center of what they love about them.
Anyway I guess I was just surprised. I always figured if folks don't like EVs then....you know...don't buy one. I don't see any point in railing against them. I didn't think the emotions ran that deep but I guess they do. Something EV manufacturers should not ignore or underestimate I think.
Anyway I guess I was just surprised. I always figured if folks don't like EVs then....you know...don't buy one. I don't see any point in railing against them. I didn't think the emotions ran that deep but I guess they do. Something EV manufacturers should not ignore or underestimate I think.
as far as 10 years for adoption? Nah, it’s coming sooner than that. But charging infrastructure will be the defining factor.
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csmeance (12-02-2021)
#135
Ex-OEM King
My overall point, that I didn't state very well, is there exists a surprisingly large group of people who will resist anything the government wants them to do, regardless of the topic. To your point a common objection was EVs being shoved down their throat by the government. That's why I included the gentle jab at vaccinations because its the same mindset. But there was also hate for the cars themselves. Mostly enthusiasts where the engine is the center of what they love about them.
Anyway I guess I was just surprised. I always figured if folks don't like EVs then....you know...don't buy one. I don't see any point in railing against them. I didn't think the emotions ran that deep but I guess they do. Something EV manufacturers should not ignore or underestimate I think.
Anyway I guess I was just surprised. I always figured if folks don't like EVs then....you know...don't buy one. I don't see any point in railing against them. I didn't think the emotions ran that deep but I guess they do. Something EV manufacturers should not ignore or underestimate I think.
EVs are going to happen way sooner than 10 years. There are already TONS of Teslas running around and more arrive every day. I've started to see a lot more Mach-E's as well. Guessing when the i4 and iX3 start coming around you'll see even more. The big tipping point is going to be charging. For me, I charge at home 99% of the time but I'd still like to be able to use my car for a road trip if I want to. The only way I can do that now is with a Tesla.
#136
Old Man Yelling at Clouds
Large group? Nope, not large but certainly vocal.
EVs are going to happen way sooner than 10 years. There are already TONS of Teslas running around and more arrive every day. I've started to see a lot more Mach-E's as well. Guessing when the i4 and iX3 start coming around you'll see even more. The big tipping point is going to be charging. For me, I charge at home 99% of the time but I'd still like to be able to use my car for a road trip if I want to. The only way I can do that now is with a Tesla.
EVs are going to happen way sooner than 10 years. There are already TONS of Teslas running around and more arrive every day. I've started to see a lot more Mach-E's as well. Guessing when the i4 and iX3 start coming around you'll see even more. The big tipping point is going to be charging. For me, I charge at home 99% of the time but I'd still like to be able to use my car for a road trip if I want to. The only way I can do that now is with a Tesla.
I see EVs gaining steady market share as time goes on of course - it will grow in proportion to more affordable offerings and also charging infrastructure.
But looking at a rather classic marketing model, there are Innovators, Early Adopters, Early Majority, Late Majority, and Laggards. On a bell curve, the first three are in one half and the last two are in the other half. EVs are largely being driven by Innovators at this point - folks who are really enthusiastic about new technology and willing to take the risks to be the first. I think we are just leaning in on acquiring folks in the Early Adopter group, and I think that happens in the next 2-5 years as we get a lot more choices on the market. But that's roughly may be 15% of the population.
Acquiring those last three groups gets a lot harder, because people in those groups need a lot more time and proof. And the charging infrastructure is going to have to REALLY improve to get those folks. At some point we run out of people who can or will charge primarily in their garage, and we'll need charging that's as fast and available as a gas station.
I see a point where it's going to really slow down when all the people who can and want an EV have one, and you have another group that either cannot or will not. That's where this all stalls. So I see us getting to that point in maybe 15 years or so. I think it's a long, slow grind to acquire the rest. I actually think one of the main drivers might be gas prices. I strongly suspect as oil companies start to sell less gas in a noticeable quantity, they will raise the price to maintain revenue. Those latter groups might be convinced when gas is $8/gallon.
But just look at cell phones. I'm old enough to remember when they first came out. So how long did it take to go from that point to the state we are now where almost everyone has one? Mid 80's to say 2010 - so 25 years? And that's for a device that's comparatively inexpensive and has no real inconvenience associated with it. So no one should expect that a $40k+ expenditure that currently has a pretty significant limitation tied to it should go any faster than that.
Last edited by 1Louder; 12-01-2021 at 11:44 AM.
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pttl (12-01-2021)
#137
Moderator
The Teslas definitely stand out a lot more than their competitors.
The German EVs looks so similar to their ICE siblings, that I've likely seen some & not noticed.
I know I've seen a few e-tron models around here & thought they were the ICE equivalent until spotting the e-tron badging. Have spotted 1 or 2 Taycans & nearly mistook them for Panameras at a quick glance.
The German EVs looks so similar to their ICE siblings, that I've likely seen some & not noticed.
I know I've seen a few e-tron models around here & thought they were the ICE equivalent until spotting the e-tron badging. Have spotted 1 or 2 Taycans & nearly mistook them for Panameras at a quick glance.
#138
Team Owner
My overall point, that I didn't state very well, is there exists a surprisingly large group of people who will resist anything the government wants them to do, regardless of the topic. To your point a common objection was EVs being shoved down their throat by the government. That's why I included the gentle jab at vaccinations because its the same mindset. But there was also hate for the cars themselves. Mostly enthusiasts where the engine is the center of what they love about them.
Anyway I guess I was just surprised. I always figured if folks don't like EVs then....you know...don't buy one. I don't see any point in railing against them. I didn't think the emotions ran that deep but I guess they do. Something EV manufacturers should not ignore or underestimate I think.
Anyway I guess I was just surprised. I always figured if folks don't like EVs then....you know...don't buy one. I don't see any point in railing against them. I didn't think the emotions ran that deep but I guess they do. Something EV manufacturers should not ignore or underestimate I think.
when you have people claiming that "the end is near" " all new cars sold will be EV by 2025" "Robotaxi will be available by 2022" "FSD is the best thing ever" , it would be difficult to have a follow up conversation after that without sounding like an EV hattter.
#139
Old Man Yelling at Clouds
Here's a sampling of the reaction C/D got simply putting an EV on the cover and writing articles about them (which I thought were pretty good):
"In over 276 months, I'd never put down a C/D before I wiped until this lame EV issue. I'm an oilman, so I take pride in my unbiased opinions about EV's uselessness."
"The EV issue is the first issue that went from my mailbox straight to my trash" (<-- this sentiment was repeated probably a half dozen times)
"Can't tell you the disgust I feel over seeing "EV of the year" on your cover. I'm not reading this. Straight to the trash. Please cover cars we love, not appliances that are being forced upon us"
"...that edition is just jampacked with BS in support of EVs..." (and it wasn't, it was pretty fair and unbiased)
"...Thanks for convincing me that I doubt that I will ever buy an EV..."
"...Now in the fast footsteps of Motor Trend's lame green publication, you present us with the mighty (yawn) EV issue..."
"...You attempted to inform the world of how inevitably exciting going electric will be, but ended up alienating 90 percent of your readers and boring 100 percent of them..."
"...Hope this never repeats and the word "car" is kept in mind instead of "home appliance."..."
"...can you put all the EV reviews together in a pullout section so I can trash that crap and move on to something I give a rat's ass about?..."
"...The articles reinforced my decision to never part one of these contraptions in my garage..."
"It's been fully noted you have kissed the EV ring of political correctness. Put away the Kool-Aid now and don't do it again..."
Totally concede the point one would expect this. But I've been reading C/D for years and I've never seen so many - there are a ton I skipped because they were repetitive.
These folks are not anywhere near "just a few years away from full adoption".
Anyway I'm just offering the observation, not trying to defend them. I was just surprised, that's all.
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pttl (12-01-2021)
#140
My first Avatar....
I have zero compulsion to buy an ev. Universal charging and better battery tech are a must for me, before I even consider one.
#141
Team Owner
#142
Team Owner
Some do, but these are largely folks to attribute way too much to the "government" when really they are angry about something and want something to blame.
Here's a sampling of the reaction C/D got simply putting an EV on the cover and writing articles about them (which I thought were pretty good):
"In over 276 months, I'd never put down a C/D before I wiped until this lame EV issue. I'm an oilman, so I take pride in my unbiased opinions about EV's uselessness."
"The EV issue is the first issue that went from my mailbox straight to my trash" (<-- this sentiment was repeated probably a half dozen times)
"Can't tell you the disgust I feel over seeing "EV of the year" on your cover. I'm not reading this. Straight to the trash. Please cover cars we love, not appliances that are being forced upon us"
"...that edition is just jampacked with BS in support of EVs..." (and it wasn't, it was pretty fair and unbiased)
"...Thanks for convincing me that I doubt that I will ever buy an EV..."
"...Now in the fast footsteps of Motor Trend's lame green publication, you present us with the mighty (yawn) EV issue..."
"...You attempted to inform the world of how inevitably exciting going electric will be, but ended up alienating 90 percent of your readers and boring 100 percent of them..."
"...Hope this never repeats and the word "car" is kept in mind instead of "home appliance."..."
"...can you put all the EV reviews together in a pullout section so I can trash that crap and move on to something I give a rat's ass about?..."
"...The articles reinforced my decision to never part one of these contraptions in my garage..."
"It's been fully noted you have kissed the EV ring of political correctness. Put away the Kool-Aid now and don't do it again..."
Totally concede the point one would expect this. But I've been reading C/D for years and I've never seen so many - there are a ton I skipped because they were repetitive.
These folks are not anywhere near "just a few years away from full adoption".
Anyway I'm just offering the observation, not trying to defend them. I was just surprised, that's all.
Here's a sampling of the reaction C/D got simply putting an EV on the cover and writing articles about them (which I thought were pretty good):
"In over 276 months, I'd never put down a C/D before I wiped until this lame EV issue. I'm an oilman, so I take pride in my unbiased opinions about EV's uselessness."
"The EV issue is the first issue that went from my mailbox straight to my trash" (<-- this sentiment was repeated probably a half dozen times)
"Can't tell you the disgust I feel over seeing "EV of the year" on your cover. I'm not reading this. Straight to the trash. Please cover cars we love, not appliances that are being forced upon us"
"...that edition is just jampacked with BS in support of EVs..." (and it wasn't, it was pretty fair and unbiased)
"...Thanks for convincing me that I doubt that I will ever buy an EV..."
"...Now in the fast footsteps of Motor Trend's lame green publication, you present us with the mighty (yawn) EV issue..."
"...You attempted to inform the world of how inevitably exciting going electric will be, but ended up alienating 90 percent of your readers and boring 100 percent of them..."
"...Hope this never repeats and the word "car" is kept in mind instead of "home appliance."..."
"...can you put all the EV reviews together in a pullout section so I can trash that crap and move on to something I give a rat's ass about?..."
"...The articles reinforced my decision to never part one of these contraptions in my garage..."
"It's been fully noted you have kissed the EV ring of political correctness. Put away the Kool-Aid now and don't do it again..."
Totally concede the point one would expect this. But I've been reading C/D for years and I've never seen so many - there are a ton I skipped because they were repetitive.
These folks are not anywhere near "just a few years away from full adoption".
Anyway I'm just offering the observation, not trying to defend them. I was just surprised, that's all.
We got people who would prefer Model S Plaid over the $1.5M Bugatti.... so...
Except the extremists, most of the people are OK with EV and can see where the future is. It does not mean they have to jump on to the wagon with everyone else at this moment.
On the flip side, you got people like Comfy who thinks full EV adoption is here already.. like in 48 hours yet he still drive a RDX everyday.
Charging issues? non-existent! close your eyes and pretend they are not there, then problem solved!
#143
Old Man Yelling at Clouds
Right now the transition costs are still pretty high. The cars are expensive, you have to be willing to pay to establish Level 2 charging at home, and you have to be willing to live within the limitations of the charging infrastructure.
There are a LOT of people who just can't make that jump until the cost is zero or near zero.
#144
Ex-OEM King
I think we have to talk about what we mean by "EVs happening".
I see EVs gaining steady market share as time goes on of course - it will grow in proportion to more affordable offerings and also charging infrastructure.
But looking at a rather classic marketing model, there are Innovators, Early Adopters, Early Majority, Late Majority, and Laggards. On a bell curve, the first three are in one half and the last two are in the other half. EVs are largely being driven by Innovators at this point - folks who are really enthusiastic about new technology and willing to take the risks to be the first. I think we are just leaning in on acquiring folks in the Early Adopter group, and I think that happens in the next 2-5 years as we get a lot more choices on the market. But that's roughly may be 15% of the population.
Acquiring those last three groups gets a lot harder, because people in those groups need a lot more time and proof. And the charging infrastructure is going to have to REALLY improve to get those folks. At some point we run out of people who can or will charge primarily in their garage, and we'll need charging that's as fast and available as a gas station.
I see a point where it's going to really slow down when all the people who can and want an EV have one, and you have another group that either cannot or will not. That's where this all stalls. So I see us getting to that point in maybe 15 years or so. I think it's a long, slow grind to acquire the rest. I actually think one of the main drivers might be gas prices. I strongly suspect as oil companies start to sell less gas in a noticeable quantity, they will raise the price to maintain revenue. Those latter groups might be convinced when gas is $8/gallon.
But just look at cell phones. I'm old enough to remember when they first came out. So how long did it take to go from that point to the state we are now where almost everyone has one? Mid 80's to say 2010 - so 25 years? And that's for a device that's comparatively inexpensive and has no real inconvenience associated with it. So no one should expect that a $40k+ expenditure that currently has a pretty significant limitation tied to it should go any faster than that.
I see EVs gaining steady market share as time goes on of course - it will grow in proportion to more affordable offerings and also charging infrastructure.
But looking at a rather classic marketing model, there are Innovators, Early Adopters, Early Majority, Late Majority, and Laggards. On a bell curve, the first three are in one half and the last two are in the other half. EVs are largely being driven by Innovators at this point - folks who are really enthusiastic about new technology and willing to take the risks to be the first. I think we are just leaning in on acquiring folks in the Early Adopter group, and I think that happens in the next 2-5 years as we get a lot more choices on the market. But that's roughly may be 15% of the population.
Acquiring those last three groups gets a lot harder, because people in those groups need a lot more time and proof. And the charging infrastructure is going to have to REALLY improve to get those folks. At some point we run out of people who can or will charge primarily in their garage, and we'll need charging that's as fast and available as a gas station.
I see a point where it's going to really slow down when all the people who can and want an EV have one, and you have another group that either cannot or will not. That's where this all stalls. So I see us getting to that point in maybe 15 years or so. I think it's a long, slow grind to acquire the rest. I actually think one of the main drivers might be gas prices. I strongly suspect as oil companies start to sell less gas in a noticeable quantity, they will raise the price to maintain revenue. Those latter groups might be convinced when gas is $8/gallon.
But just look at cell phones. I'm old enough to remember when they first came out. So how long did it take to go from that point to the state we are now where almost everyone has one? Mid 80's to say 2010 - so 25 years? And that's for a device that's comparatively inexpensive and has no real inconvenience associated with it. So no one should expect that a $40k+ expenditure that currently has a pretty significant limitation tied to it should go any faster than that.
Also, if you want to compare to cell phones in the 80's then start the EV comparison with the GM EV1 back in the mid to late 90's so we're right about on time for that to go big at 25 years.
Agreed.
Right now the transition costs are still pretty high. The cars are expensive, you have to be willing to pay to establish Level 2 charging at home, and you have to be willing to live within the limitations of the charging infrastructure.
There are a LOT of people who just can't make that jump until the cost is zero or near zero.
Right now the transition costs are still pretty high. The cars are expensive, you have to be willing to pay to establish Level 2 charging at home, and you have to be willing to live within the limitations of the charging infrastructure.
There are a LOT of people who just can't make that jump until the cost is zero or near zero.
Last edited by SamDoe1; 12-02-2021 at 09:09 AM.
#145
Sanest Florida Man
#146
Old Man Yelling at Clouds
We're definitely towards the end of early adopters and getting into the early majority section. There are way more announcements about new EV's coming to market (and PHEV's) than gas cars these days. Certainly still have a long way to go before they are the majority but there's no sign of the trend slowing down, it's speeding up.
Also, if you want to compare to cell phones in the 80's then start the EV comparison with the GM EV1 back in the mid to late 90's so we're right about on time for that to go big at 25 years.
Also, if you want to compare to cell phones in the 80's then start the EV comparison with the GM EV1 back in the mid to late 90's so we're right about on time for that to go big at 25 years.
Honestly it's probably more the cost of the car than the cost to install the charger. Getting a charger put in isn't expensive, especially so if your electric panel is in your garage or close by. I personally haven't even once felt limited by the charging infrastructure because 99% of my driving is within the range of the car from my house. I don't even charge it every day, more like once a week.
#147
Team Owner
another thing is.... The charging issue is more than just a charging speed and locations. Also we need a lot more infrastructures to accommodate 80-90%+ EVs than the current single digit market shares.
If not, the off peak charging will no longer be off peak when everyone is charging... and we might not even have enough...
Shit, CA does not even have enough electricity in the summer already. Rotating blackout is already a real thing.
If not, the off peak charging will no longer be off peak when everyone is charging... and we might not even have enough...
Shit, CA does not even have enough electricity in the summer already. Rotating blackout is already a real thing.
#148
Ex-OEM King
I might slightly disagree with that - if we were truly at the end of early adopters EV car sales would be at 10-15% market share. Last year they were 2%. That's definitely innovator moving to early adopter numbers. And I don't think the EV1 counts. It was a decidedly failed experiment that had no meaningful follow on, and was also limited to just a few hundred cars. I think the Nissan Leaf is day 1.
I've not installed a charger but I've put in many Air Conditioners and hot tubs that required a 220V outlet be installed and it's always been $1000-1200. My gas car doesn't require a $1000 mod to my garage. I think until homes come standard with extra 220V lines it's still a cost to add.
I've not installed a charger but I've put in many Air Conditioners and hot tubs that required a 220V outlet be installed and it's always been $1000-1200. My gas car doesn't require a $1000 mod to my garage. I think until homes come standard with extra 220V lines it's still a cost to add.
Budgeting $1k-$2k to add a charger to your house as part of a car purchase is pretty tiny compared to the cost of the car. Basically you're saying that you're paying $47k instead of $45k for that Tesla, something most people wouldn't even blink at. To those that can DIY the install it's even cheaper. Only cost me ~$100 in parts to install my charger.
another thing is.... The charging issue is more than just a charging speed and locations. Also we need a lot more infrastructures to accommodate 80-90%+ EVs than the current single digit market shares.
If not, the off peak charging will no longer be off peak when everyone is charging... and we might not even have enough...
Shit, CA does not even have enough electricity in the summer already. Rotating blackout is already a real thing.
If not, the off peak charging will no longer be off peak when everyone is charging... and we might not even have enough...
Shit, CA does not even have enough electricity in the summer already. Rotating blackout is already a real thing.
#149
Team Owner
Very different than the amount of new infrastructures we need to accommodate all the future EVs.
So far, it is mostly all talks.
#150
Old Man Yelling at Clouds
No that's from my MBA in Marketing. It's a model, but it has some real-world validity. But 2% sales last year is a real number. The next round of buyers in that 3-10% range are going to be people like me, who are waiting to observe the experience others are having, to have a better understanding of what its really like to own and operate, and I'm personally interested in resale and trade in. I want to see what others are experiencing first. And I've seen that, and feel confident now I could own an EV successfully. Now it's just waiting to be in the market again.
My only point is gas cars don't require a $1000 home mod to operate. So it's an additional consideration, that's all. People right now who "don't mind" are the people already enthusiastic about their EV in general so I can totally see it not being a huge issue. If I get one soon it won't be either - just something I have to consider. But mass-market buyers will feel differently about it. Also I don't know what state allows a 220V mod to your fuse box without a permit, but ours does. Regardless I think only a very tiny fraction of people would attempt that DIY. I don't think the average buyer will for sure.
Budgeting $1k-$2k to add a charger to your house as part of a car purchase is pretty tiny compared to the cost of the car. Basically you're saying that you're paying $47k instead of $45k for that Tesla, something most people wouldn't even blink at. To those that can DIY the install it's even cheaper. Only cost me ~$100 in parts to install my charger.
#151
Ex-OEM King
Not the same, we had enough truck drivers before and gas supply chain and logistics are well established networks. It is just this Pandemic + some dumb fuck made decisions have caused the world into a mess.
Very different than the amount of new infrastructures we need to accommodate all the future EVs.
So far, it is mostly all talks.
Very different than the amount of new infrastructures we need to accommodate all the future EVs.
So far, it is mostly all talks.
No that's from my MBA in Marketing. It's a model, but it has some real-world validity. But 2% sales last year is a real number. The next round of buyers in that 3-10% range are going to be people like me, who are waiting to observe the experience others are having, to have a better understanding of what its really like to own and operate, and I'm personally interested in resale and trade in. I want to see what others are experiencing first. And I've seen that, and feel confident now I could own an EV successfully. Now it's just waiting to be in the market again.
My only point is gas cars don't require a $1000 home mod to operate. So it's an additional consideration, that's all. People right now who "don't mind" are the people already enthusiastic about their EV in general so I can totally see it not being a huge issue. If I get one soon it won't be either - just something I have to consider. But mass-market buyers will feel differently about it. Also I don't know what state allows a 220V mod to your fuse box without a permit, but ours does. Regardless I think only a very tiny fraction of people would attempt that DIY. I don't think the average buyer will for sure.
My only point is gas cars don't require a $1000 home mod to operate. So it's an additional consideration, that's all. People right now who "don't mind" are the people already enthusiastic about their EV in general so I can totally see it not being a huge issue. If I get one soon it won't be either - just something I have to consider. But mass-market buyers will feel differently about it. Also I don't know what state allows a 220V mod to your fuse box without a permit, but ours does. Regardless I think only a very tiny fraction of people would attempt that DIY. I don't think the average buyer will for sure.
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1Louder (12-02-2021)
#153
Team Owner
Damn another RDX owner?
#154
Ex-OEM King
What is it with the RDX that brings out the crazy in people?
#155
Team Owner
The Happening
#156
#157
Team Owner
It is called Avatar. It will tell you what it is if you put your mouse over it.
^that has prompted me to see what kind of stuff this person has been posting
not surprised That threat hurts my head...
https://acurazine.com/forums/third-generation-rdx-2019-454/third-generation-slower-than-second-generation-985554/page5/
^that has prompted me to see what kind of stuff this person has been posting
not surprised That threat hurts my head...
Spoken well. Put a BMW B58 and a 8 speed ZF Friedrichshafen in the RDX and Acura would really have something special. Toyota Uses the B58, why can't Acura?
Turbos = instant power. N/A engines not so much.
#158
Sanest Florida Man
Norway is again showing that the all-electric car future is closer than people think, as November car sales in the country see internal combustion engine car sales crumble.
The Scandinavian country has been the leading market for electric vehicles in term of adoption per capita.
As many markets are introducing plans to “ban” gas-powered cars by 2030, 2035, and even later, Norway is aiming for each new car on the road to be all-electric by 2025, and it’s on pace to achieve that early.
The results this year have been nothing short of stunning, with the November numbers released today being no exception.
Norway is reporting 73.8% of sales last month coming from all-electric vehicles, and the number goes up to 94.9% when adding all vehicles with batteries
The Scandinavian country has been the leading market for electric vehicles in term of adoption per capita.
As many markets are introducing plans to “ban” gas-powered cars by 2030, 2035, and even later, Norway is aiming for each new car on the road to be all-electric by 2025, and it’s on pace to achieve that early.
The results this year have been nothing short of stunning, with the November numbers released today being no exception.
Norway is reporting 73.8% of sales last month coming from all-electric vehicles, and the number goes up to 94.9% when adding all vehicles with batteries
#159
It is called Avatar. It will tell you what it is if you put your mouse over it.
^that has prompted me to see what kind of stuff this person has been posting
not surprised That threat hurts my head...
https://acurazine.com/forums/third-g...-985554/page5/
^that has prompted me to see what kind of stuff this person has been posting
not surprised That threat hurts my head...
https://acurazine.com/forums/third-g...-985554/page5/
#160
Moderator