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But if EV cars become more dominant won't it be bad news for the big automakers and also for energy sector companies in the oil and gas industries.
I look back at GM and their EV-1. It seemed like GM pulled the plug on their own product - they took the cars back from the customers and junked them.
IMO, there is 0.001% chance that EV will dominate the car market in 10 years. That is way too soon and currently the barriers to general adoption of EVs are extremely large...namely refuleing stations are woefully under-numbered by gasoling refueling stations and the lack of charging at apartment complexes and at work places and the overall higher price of EVs still along with the biggest hurdle of them all: (no not range anxiety)...refueling time.
The one huge advantage that the EV has over gas cars is the ability for it to refuel while you're working or sleeping - something that is virtually impossible for gasoline cars. Can you imagine never having to stop by a gas station for your gas car again....that somehow you can refuel it while you sleep or at work? That is the EV's huge advantage....but the network infrasttructure is not there....and the private industry is currently racing to try to become the dominant player in the charging network - because that will be a massive gravy train for many many years for the winner(s) of that race. Public infrastruture appears to be non-existent in the USA so we'll see how that market is regulated in the future.
I don't actually think it's range anxiety that's a problem...all gasoline cars have limited range as well...it's just that refueling is extremely convenient and stations are all over and it takes about 30 seconds to 2 minutes max of actual refueling time....even if there are charging stations as abundant as gas stations...the refueling time is still an issue...unless people can charge at home or work (still not widely adopted) or battery tech becomes a point where you can rival gasoling refuel time (Toyota is working behind the scenes on a solid state battery tech that will improve refueling time).
It is just NOW that the EVs are coming out of the beta stages.....the past 10 years have been alpha testing on consumers and then beta testing with the early adopters of very expensive vehicles that were essentially status symbols and virtual signals (ie, Teslas) and for the lucky few who are wealthy enough to afford cars at those price tags. Legacy car makers are putting to market more put together EV platforms (unlike Tesla that have been essentially using the public as alpha and beta testers...not to mention the horrendous data privacy issues) so it is now just the infancy of the EV revolution...but mark my words it is still in its very very early infancy.
In our life time we will not see gasoline cars go away at all...despite what the media wants you to believe or what beaurocrats want to legislate. I myself am going to start evaluate the EV market in another 10 years to see if it is even viable for me/my family to consider EVs...my guess is no. There are other things I will consider before jumping into EVs but at this time it is still mostly a novelty and a status symbol...although it is starting to become just a tiny bit less niche.
I agree with everything nist7 said. I do think EVs are going to surge in popularity though in the next 3-5 years and obtain a market share that will make them far more common than they are now. But they'll never "take over" until recharging them is nearly as convenient as gassing up is now. But I think there are a lot of people who may bite on the concept that an EV could be a commuter car relying on recharging at home for most needs. I think if solid state batteries can get introduced, this method of ownership may prove popular enough to win new buyers. Lower price points and choices will bring people in too. I'll be in the market 3-4 years from now and I'll give EVs a very hard look. The BMW i4 looks really interesting.
But for the foreseeable future, maybe even a decade or two, we'll always have at least one gas burner to handle all the non-commuting tasks.
Agree with you. The only issue is when the EVs become the mainstream selling vehicles, the supporting infrastructure for gasoline cars (aka gas pumps) will become less profitable and therefore will likely increase prices which will compound the problem. You can see where it is going as the least profitable ones will shut down and suddenly range anxiety will become a “thing” for ICE vehicles.
Yes there would be plenty of used cars to support the gas stations, but it will be a dwindling piece of pie and whoever buys them will lose money significantly.
My opinion is that the change will be harder and faster than any of us here would like to see.
Agree with you. The only issue is when the EVs become the mainstream selling vehicles, the supporting infrastructure for gasoline cars (aka gas pumps) will become less profitable and therefore will likely increase prices which will compound the problem. You can see where it is going as the least profitable ones will shut down and suddenly range anxiety will become a “thing” for ICE vehicles.
Yes there would be plenty of used cars to support the gas stations, but it will be a dwindling piece of pie and whoever buys them will lose money significantly.
My opinion is that the change will be harder and faster than any of us here would like to see.
I think gas stations are going to be the Blockbuster videos of the 2030's.....
I often get criticized for advocating that we figure out a way to do this constructively, but we will go faster if we can figure out how to transition oil/gas companies and service stations into something that profits from EVs rather than making them casualties of it. Because if they stand to lose they will fight progress, not enable it. If they have a piece of the pie in the new order of things, it will go much faster. If we can figure out how they can make money now, it will go VERY fast. If I were a gas station now, I'd be looking for space to put fast charging stations (the kind that will charge in minutes), a big-old electrical pipe, and a lobby to sell things while people wait for their cars to charge. Or, attach these things to malls or grocery stores and such (like Tesla is doing).
I would imagint the oil compay will do everything they can to hinder EV and charging stations at gas pumps. Fossil fuel companys the same thing.
Things would definitely change if they can get battery technology to the point where you can "walk into a walmart and get a automotive battery pack for 600 miles"
Just not there yet - maybe 30 years out.
I think gas stations are going to be the Blockbuster videos of the 2030's.....
I often get criticized for advocating that we figure out a way to do this constructively, but we will go faster if we can figure out how to transition oil/gas companies and service stations into something that profits from EVs rather than making them casualties of it. Because if they stand to lose they will fight progress, not enable it. If they have a piece of the pie in the new order of things, it will go much faster. If we can figure out how they can make money now, it will go VERY fast. If I were a gas station now, I'd be looking for space to put fast charging stations (the kind that will charge in minutes), a big-old electrical pipe, and a lobby to sell things while people wait for their cars to charge. Or, attach these things to malls or grocery stores and such (like Tesla is doing).
For urban users, I can see EV taking market share by 2030. The more suburban/rural users will need faster charging time and greater range which tech has yet to be developed for that. I can see my wife and I having one ICE and one EV in the late 2020's. Around where I live (Columbia) suburbia midway between Baltimore and DC, there are new charging stations continue to be opening. It's a slow adoption but it's happening, just seems like I see more EV's and charging stations as time goes on.
I'm in the N Houston suburbs & at least in the vicinity of my home (5-10 mile radius) there are only a few places with multiple charging spots.
For me, I'd want to see commonality of charging apparatus, similar to how I can take my ICE to any gas station in the country & get fuel. If ICE fuel stations added EV 'pumps' & EV makers used a single charging connector, I think that would accelerate the end user take rate on EV cars.
I'm in the N Houston suburbs & at least in the vicinity of my home (5-10 mile radius) there are only a few places with multiple charging spots.
For me, I'd want to see commonality of charging apparatus, similar to how I can take my ICE to any gas station in the country & get fuel. If ICE fuel stations added EV 'pumps' & EV makers used a single charging connector, I think that would accelerate the end user take rate on EV cars.
Whole heatedly agree on this. I think Tesla tried to corner the market but now there seem to be competing infrastructures. One of them is going to be VHS and the other is Beta-max. I think in the end one wins, but not sure which one.....
More likely they may merge and become common that way.
Around here, the only freestanding chargers I ever see are Tesla branded, with a few others, but I've never taken the time to see what brand they are. But, by vast majority, Tesla chargers are the most prevalent around my home area.
I'm in the N Houston suburbs & at least in the vicinity of my home (5-10 mile radius) there are only a few places with multiple charging spots.
For me, I'd want to see commonality of charging apparatus, similar to how I can take my ICE to any gas station in the country & get fuel. If ICE fuel stations added EV 'pumps' & EV makers used a single charging connector, I think that would accelerate the end user take rate on EV cars.
Just recently a mega "Royal Farms" (Baltimore chain) gas station/convenience store opened nearby with ~10 charging stations. To me it's the start of blending of energy products sold at places like that. As imaged , unlike gasoline where vehicles drive through, this is a drive-in parkingcharging station on the side of the parking lot.
Originally Posted by 1Louder
Whole heatedly agree on this. I think Tesla tried to corner the market but now there seem to be competing infrastructures. One of them is going to be VHS and the other is Beta-max. I think in the end one wins, but not sure which one.....
More likely they may merge and become common that way.
IIRC, Tesla has made some recent statement about now supporting the EV SAE plug standards at their supercharging stations.
Both Infrastructure and battery technology need to be more developed before EV can really take the lead in car sales. Yes, Tesla is building more stations and others as well, but that is a drop in a bucket if we are talking about 50%+ of all new car sold in the US are EV... We need a lot more stations and the charging needs to be done a lot faster...
Imagine your forgot to plug in the charger the night before and now you are running late for your 9am meeting.
With ICE cars, i am 99.9999% sure that i can find a vacant gas pump along the way and spend 3-5 mins to get a full tank. If i am really in a hurry, i will put in 10 bucks and fill it up later when i have time.
With EV... WTF am i gonna do? call a Uber i guess
Last edited by oonowindoo; 08-10-2021 at 05:04 PM.
Both Infrastructure and battery technology need to be more developed before EV can really take the lead in car sales. Yes, Tesla is building more stations and others as well, but that is a drop in a bucket if we are talking about 50%+ of all new car sold in the US are EV... We need a lot more stations and the charging needs to be done a lot faster...
Imagine your forgot to plug in the charger the night before and now you are running late for your 9am meeting.
With ICE cars, i am 99.9999% sure that i can find a vacant gas pump along the way and spend 3-5 mins to get a full tank. If i am really in a hurry, i will put in 10 bucks and fill it up later when i have time.
With EV... WTF am i gonna do? call a Uber i guess
since we're speaking about the future and all, just Teleconference! Zoom/Teams
This is one of those topics that seems to come up more and more frequently. Maarten Vinkhuyzen was ahead of the curve (as usual) and wrote the article “The Osborne Effect On The Auto Industry” in February 2019. Here’s a key graphic from that excellent piece (which you are required to read if you haven’t yet):
There are three key elements of this. One is that growth of a disruptive technology is not linear. It is much faster than a normal person, or even a professional forecaster, typically presumes it will be in the early years of the disruption. The second is that, conversely, the decline of the outgoing technology is rapid as well, with the market collapsing like when you step on the edge of a little sand cliff on the beach and slip down rapidly. The third point, one that is almost always ignored, is that the transition period can also lead to an overall market drop/dent for a while.
The third point can be a bit confusing, and it’s related to the title of this article. It may seem that the growth of the new tech should rise perfectly to match the decline of the old tech, but that’s not how the world works (or how the other planets some of you plan to move to will work). Once the new, better, cheaper technology is in the eyesight of much of the population, people start to realize that there’s no point in getting the old technology. They may not be ready to get the new tech just yet — because of money, product delays, high availability and relatively low supply, or timing — but they most logically will presume that it’s not wise (or fun) to buy an outgoing product that can’t match the hot new thing. The mismatch between the consumer desire to get a new product and the ability of the industry to produce that new product as much as consumers want it leads to a big dent in the market. Or, on the flip side, lack of interest in the old product, while the producer is still wanting to sell it, leads to a market collapse of some scale.
This article I am writing right now was stimulated by a comment under an article I wrote yesterday. “I’d generally agree except with the stipulation that by 2030 it’ll be hard to sell a new ICE car,” the person wrote in response to another reader’s comment. This is the question. This is the big question. When we’re looking at 2030 and trying to forecast EV market share, or trying to push for some specific EV market share, the result isn’t just dependent on scaling up EV production. The market share result is also totally reliant on what the actual drop of sales of the old tech will be.
Without doubt, there are people today who are avoiding/foregoing fossil fuel vehicle purchases while waiting a bit longer to get an EV. But that will be happening more in 2023, and even much more in 2025, and sooooo much more in 2030. Scaling up battery production for the number of sales Tesla and other EV producers are aiming to sell by 2030 will be a challenge — more than a challenge. The producers need a lot of lithium, nickel, graphite, and other minerals, significantly more than I expect to be secured by 2030. But I think few people will be okay buying a gasoline-powered car at that time.
So, taking all of that into account, what do you expect the plugin vehicle (or fully electric vehicle) market share to be in the US in 2030? What about globally?
And, circling back to the title, when do fossil fuel car sales collapse?
My wild guess is that plugin vehicles will be at 70% in 2030 due in large part to consumers deciding that they are going to skip the outgoing ICE (internal combustion engine) tech. I expect fossil fuel car sales to start to really collapse in 2025–2026 in Europe and 2027–2028 in the USA. Though, it seems that is already beginning — the early stages of it. Inarguably, though, one way or another, it’s going to get messy by the end of the decade. Even 50% plugin vehicle share, as Biden’s team is targeting, is not a peaceful state of equilibrium as it may sound. It’s a point of hyperfast change and disruption. Be sure to put it on your Google Calendar now.
People don't usually wait to replace their car until it's Found On the Road Dead, so people will see that ICE cars are dead, many won't buy a new ICE car and will drive their old car around a few more years while they wait for an EV. This leads to a decline in overall vehicle sales since due to battery supply constraints (which was one of the main points of Tesla's battery day in 2020), barring a miraculous technological breakthrough EVs production won't be able to scale as fast as the demand for EVs will.
So maybe Comfy is right in the sense that half of the market would want an EV by 2025 but there won't be enough batteries to make EVs to meet that demand by 2025. So people won't buy ICE vehicles while they wait, and that will be the critical time period where legacy auto will be fucked. Demand for their more profitable ICE vehicles will plummet and they won't be able to make enough of their less profitable EVs to stay afloat. If I were them I'd cut shareholder dividends and start saving money to try and make it through that perilous few years.
That’s exactly what I’m talking about. Man, that valley of death is so close to my projection. Okay so someone else seems to be agreeing with me too. LOL.
Do you think fully electric cars (like Tesla and such) will become main stream automobile of choice in the next 10 years in the US?
Nope!
For that to happen, you need cars that can be fully charged to the 100% level in about 5 minutes. Battery technology is the issue. That or you need batteries to be owned and charged by "battery stations" (like a gas station) and they need to have a common form factor with various capacities. One form factor fits ALL cars. You would drive your car in and the battery would be exchanged within a minute or two and off you go again.
And even that 750 HP Taycan Turbo S that I got to drive did not do it for me even during launch mode. Damn quick, but I didn't hear a brooom, brooom.
And then all those tree huggers seem to forget how electricity is produced (coal, nuclear spent rods that last forever, etc) and the process of production and disposing of batteries.
I think that graph is unrealistically optimistic. Near zero ICE sales in 8 years? No way.
Sometimes I get the feeling that the EV industry thinks the world is full of people that think spending 50-90k on a new car is normal, that everyone owns a garage, and have flexible lifestyles that can bend around the availability of charging. Do they think everyone is going to spend 2 hrs at Ikea every 3 days to charge their car?
The world is full of people who don't own a garage, live in a apartment, or would otherwise have no access to reliable at home charging. Until charging your EV is as quick and convenient as gassing your car up, these people don't buy EVs.
The world is full of people where spending $25k on a car is a splurge, who may more likely buy and own $10k cars. Do they think these people are going to suddenly buy Model 3's? Do they think the used Leaf market is going to solve that problem?
The world is full of people who travel for a living, who need to gas up every day, and need to do so in less than 2 hrs or can't be stranded somewhere because they can't charge.
I could go on. None of this gets solved in 8 years, and until these scenarios ALL get solved, EVs will be only owned by upper class suburbanites with garages, at home charging, and lifestyles that center around only needing to go 2-300 miles round trip.
I could see some more upscale apartment complexes adding EV charging as a perk/feature, but the further you get out of major cities, the less likely that'll become, at least in the near future.
I can't imagine the 2 apartments I lived in having EV capabilities, and before that I was in a pretty rough rental house, in a pretty rural area about 20 minutes south of the university, that would in no way have supported an EV.
I could see some more upscale apartment complexes adding EV charging as a perk/feature, but the further you get out of major cities, the less likely that'll become, at least in the near future.
I can't imagine the 2 apartments I lived in having EV capabilities, and before that I was in a pretty rough rental house, in a pretty rural area about 20 minutes south of the university, that would in no way have supported an EV.
And even if apartments had charging stations - you can imagine this being a common scenario: 200 residents sharing 6 stations, they'd never be available, some jerk who thought they were the most important person in the building hogs one all the time, someone else leaves their car their for 3 days on the charger because "they forgot".....It would turn into the Hunger Games trying to get a charge on your car just so you can get to work.
If it's all going to work, every individual needs unimpeded access to charging. Which means every parking spot needs to have a charger.
True, it would have to get to the point that a complex like that had a charger available for almost every space. But, the $$ implication on that would make it a slow adoption for a business like that, unless they could capitalize on charging the resident for a reserved space with EV charging.
True, it would have to get to the point that a complex like that had a charger available for almost every space. But, the $$ implication on that would make it a slow adoption for a business like that, unless they could capitalize on charging the resident for a reserved space with EV charging.
I think not only charge for a spot with a charging station, but they could maybe charge for the electricity? Sell it like a gas station sells gas. So I think there is financial incentive out there for apartments, stores, malls, etc. to have access to a revenue stream. Maybe - I'm not sure how the economics currently work. I'm not sure who makes money at Tesla stations - whether it's Tesla selling the electricity, or if the places they are hosted get a cut too.
Although at some point, the strain on the grid becomes an issue.
Yeah, lots to consider & hard to really figure out what should come first, the chicken or the egg.
IMO, you'll see more urban adoption of EVs far before the rural areas take them on. Just not enough infrastructure, nor the incentive to implement in the more rural areas.
Thinking back to college, most of the town I lived in were in lower cost used cars, very few that were newer than 5-8 years old, at the time & many more that were > 10 years old.
Yeah, lots to consider & hard to really figure out what should come first, the chicken or the egg.
IMO, you'll see more urban adoption of EVs far before the rural areas take them on. Just not enough infrastructure, nor the incentive to implement in the more rural areas.
Thinking back to college, most of the town I lived in were in lower cost used cars, very few that were newer than 5-8 years old, at the time & many more that were > 10 years old.
add onto the fact that our current power grid is barely hanging on and needs updating. Northeast USA imports power from canada! Once we can figure out cleaner electric then it'll be a no-brainer. The only 2 things that are pushing folks to electric currently are A. Global Warming and B. Cost (due to fuel prices).
If there was way more incentive to go electric many would. Lots of older folks barely drive 5 miles a week and would greatly love an affordable electric car that's easy to use.
I think that graph is unrealistically optimistic. Near zero ICE sales in 8 years? No way.
Sometimes I get the feeling that the EV industry thinks the world is full of people that think spending 50-90k on a new car is normal, that everyone owns a garage, and have flexible lifestyles that can bend around the availability of charging. Do they think everyone is going to spend 2 hrs at Ikea every 3 days to charge their car?
The world is full of people who don't own a garage, live in a apartment, or would otherwise have no access to reliable at home charging. Until charging your EV is as quick and convenient as gassing your car up, these people don't buy EVs.
The world is full of people where spending $25k on a car is a splurge, who may more likely buy and own $10k cars. Do they think these people are going to suddenly buy Model 3's? Do they think the used Leaf market is going to solve that problem?
The world is full of people who travel for a living, who need to gas up every day, and need to do so in less than 2 hrs or can't be stranded somewhere because they can't charge.
I could go on. None of this gets solved in 8 years, and until these scenarios ALL get solved, EVs will be only owned by upper class suburbanites with garages, at home charging, and lifestyles that center around only needing to go 2-300 miles round trip.
They dont care about the obstacles and they dont have or care for a solution to remove the obstacles. All they know is Elon FTW.. it will happen because he said so.
^^ Well put, CS
Maybe when some EVs are in the true entry-level market, cost-wise, they'll see some more adoption, but only when the infrastructure is there to support them.
For the majority, charging overnight should be sufficient for DD use, if even needing to charge daily. But, the capability needs to be there for fast-charging for those that exceed the effective range in the daily use. My coworker drives 68 miles 1-way, 4 days a week, to the office. And that's assuming no stops/detours en route.
My Co worker's plug in Q5 takes him 2 days to charge for something like 50 miles range...
In Comfy's mind, everyone has level 3 DC charger at home and there is a super charging station at every corner... and everyone has a place to charge everyday... American dream for everyone...
As far as electricity and battery? Dont worry... they just appear ... you say a prayer to Elon and like Santa, he will make sure you will have what you need...
08-06-2021, 05:16 PM
If a Pandemic couldn't let me stay home and work, nothing will 
But that will be happening more in 2023, and even much more in 2025, and sooooo much more in 2030. Scaling up battery production for the number of sales Tesla and other EV producers are aiming to sell by 2030 will be a challenge — more than a challenge. The producers need a lot of lithium, nickel, graphite, and other minerals, significantly more than I expect to be secured by 2030. But I think few people will be okay buying a gasoline-powered car at that time.
