Well SLV (now at 39.33) just penetrated the $38.86 called out a couple posts ago. If this closes above 38.86 today, it's time to "buy baby buy". So far 8M shares have traded and it's only been 20 minutes of trading with 32M shares normal for a day's trade.

Looks like on-balance-volume is trending down today so somebody might be able to get a jump on some shares at 39.01 on a limit order today.

 

Is everyone running into metals now because they think the US is going to default? Is the latest rally sustainable if the debt ceiling is raised in time?

 

Gold and Silver will continue to rise over the long term even after the budget/debt ceiling is resolved.

 

Gold and Silver are rising BECAUSE the debt ceiling will be raised. I don't think it's a matter of if but when the ceiling gets raised and my bet is by this weekend. Raising the debt ceiling is the easiest thing our fearless politicians can do. But let there be no mistake, that fact that they can not balance a budget and need to raise this ceiling is exactly why people are gravitating to gold and silver. How would it work for ourselves if we were tapped out on our credit cards and need to ask a bank to raise our limit so we can pay our bills like rent and medical insurance? How do you think that would work our for you? No bank in their right mind would raise your limit and eventually our lenders (people who buy the bonds) are going to do the same thing.

Gold and Silver is not the only way to play this game regarding the debt ceiling, I see my other top pick TBT also had a great day today too- that one shorts U.S. long-term bonds that have been amazingly resilient this last couple of months but I think are do for a big fall which increases the value of this position.

 

I've been fooling with this stuff about four years before ever other commercial on FOX is about a gold company and "time to buy."

I think this old boy will take double/triple profits and start unloading.

 

^ But what are you going to buy with all those profits? It's tough to sell a winner that is blowing away the market when things are starting to get very interesting on the financial economic front. I started buying silver back in 1995 and have mega profits to the tune of 900% but I'm holding since it's more likely to double from these levels than drop 50%. It took 16 years for my Silver premise to really come to fruition so it's tough to drop it now. If I were you I certainly wouldn't unload everything- maybe in 10% chunks every couple of months instead.

 

^ Think that is good advice and you got some real conviction. I don't have the patience to get in 3 years too early

 

With increasing frequency, I get asked what is the best way to invest in these times. Most people now realize that bank CDs are losing propositions with their low interest rates while the stock market is volatile and risky as well. Often these people asking me the question have about $500 or so that they want to invest and want to know the best thing to do. It's hard to make a decent stock investment with $500 and commissions will suck a lot of the gains you would make- zapping between $10-20 each trade you would make. Ishares would be the best way to go for the stock route with that amount of money.


In the investment world $500 is not a lot but I know it is to the people asking the question. So I would recommend buying some pre-1965 90% Silver coins as an initial investment. That's what I did many years ago and that investment has grown handsomely over the years and is now up about 10x what it was when I purchased them 15 years ago. You're not going to get rich investing $500 but you will not only keep up but quite likely pace many other investments you could make: savings bonds, stocks notably.

We were on vacation and we were strolling in downtown Sacramento where there was a bunch of pawn shops and guess what I saw? They were selling pre-1965 coins so you might want to check out the pawn shops for an easy way to get some exposure or buy online at a site like bulliondirect.com. The pawns usually sell in bags of $1 face value from what I noticed- they might also be a little slower raising prices if the price of Silver should jump this next week too.

 

In all honesty, if someone only has $500 to invest, their time would be better spent working more and/or getting skills to get a higher paying job instead of trying to figure out how to eek out an extra $100 in returns. You can't make a lot of money investing if you don't have the money to invest to begin with.

Also, this is always the case:

The stock market is always going to be volatile and risky, and CDs will never pay that much (on an inflation-adjusted basis).

 

Best investment one can ever make is to pay their debt... that return in set in stone and often better than any other investment.

 

An even better investment is to not have the debt in the first place.

 

It's very common for people starting out investing to not have a lot of money to start off with. I remember making my first stock trade for $800 a couple years out of college and that trade started a successful secondary income stream that I enjoy now. You have to start somewhere and not everyone has $1000's to play with from the get go. Nobody should expect to become rich on their first $500 trade, but it does set things up to be successful in the future more than any 'imaginary money' game you'll ever play- thinking it's the same as having real money on the line.

I'm probably in the minority here, but I really don't have any debt- just one rental house mortgage and even that will be paid for in less than 10 years time. So naturally, I'm very concerned with where to place my 'savings' these days. Sure we prepay that mortgage for the rental but even that idea is looking less appealing to other options.

Sure it makes sense to invest in one's education too, but you need to insure you're investing your educational dollars in the right place. You're not going to be able to change careers with $500 and you'll barely be able to take one class at many schools.
Education of coarse has a time cost while buying $500 in silver is a pretty quick operation and doesn't take a lot of time to deal with after the fact. You simply buy it and forget about it and you'll be glad you did that in 10 years.


What's having a fat savings account going to buy you when the dollar is down about 8% for the year and you're making a paltry interest rate? The dollar appears to be in a long term downtrend as opposed to an anomaly like some think. What's going to prop up the Dollar next year and why should we not think it won't be 5-8% weaker next year?

Meanwhile silver has doubled this year and things have been relatively calm on a national level even with a threat of default that just was averted with a expanded 'credit line' for this country. That hardly exudes confidence for a country to need to borrow money to pay off it's debts, but that's the situation we're in at the moment in the U.S.

Even prepaying mortgage debt is becoming a bad idea with the 5% interest rate terms many have and an easy 3% and growing inflation rate. I would argue you would get out of debt sooner not prepaying that mortgage principal and keeping that money in silver instead- especially those of you that have a meager equity position in that house. If there's a double-dip recession or finance freeze, real estate prices could go down another 10-30% from these low levels and some of you are going to be compelled to 'walk away' from that house as discussed in another thread- why put more skin in that game if this sounds like your situation?

So in summary, there are lots of options, but silver/gold is certainly not a bad option for many to explore and even with small amounts of money.

 

I was the one asking about the $500 to invest in. Reason being, I wanted to start learning about investments and learn the market. Its just I keep trying to but I get to distracted or caught up with other stuff that I push it to the side. Having money somewhere other than a bank account would lead me to start learning, at least thats how i worked it in my head. I'm still in college, and I dont work full-time so i dont have much money to put in, but I have money in my savings that I dont really plan on touching, and I'm willing to take out $500 to invest in it, maybe gain/lose money. I just want to learn about the market so that when I'm out of college I know what to do with the money I'm making instead of spending it or leaving it all in a savings account.

 

ill also add that i'm not sure if i'll start with $500, I may wait till I have $1000 to spend. We'll see.

 

So I was looking at bulliondirect.com, and would you advise just leaving everything in the online portfolio, that way you dont need to pay for shipping or anything and it would be easier to sell I guess?

 

^ I mostly use the BullionDirect vault now. Early on I had my doubts and did some draws but I don't anymore. As you pointed out you don't pay shipping but shipping really isn't a huge amount- less than $20 for pounds of product and it is insured.

I'm parking money like my tenant's deposit money in Silver now- I now have a $3000 investment that I invested in 11/09- that was a good thing since it more than doubled in value now. So parking cash in a reserve account like BD is not a bad idea for long-term money providing it's not all your money. I can cover the tenants deposit in other ways so it's no huge deal if it should lose money now- it would have to drop like a rock of coarse since it already has more than doubled. I have had these tenants for almost 10 years now and only recently did this- wish I had thought of it sooner for sure.

 

@LaCostaRacer

So my initial investment of 30oz a few weeks back is in the black now.

Historically speaking, the G/S Ratio should be 1/32 and when Gold was at $1,600 Silver should have been at $50.

Gold is inching towards $1,700. What do you think will happen; will silver adjust to reach levels over $50 or will Gold prices correct to below $1,600.

Also, I generally store $500 for savings bi-weekly, but am considering just purchasing Silver as money in the bank is doing nothing for me. Would you consider this a worthwhile risk?

 

^ good questions! It was a tough market for a silver bull like myself, but manageable. SLV was down 6.58% in a SP500 down 4.78% market. It's the weekly percent that I care about more and SLV should easily beat the SP500 this week despite today's miss.

As most of you will also predict, I think prices are heading higher. With that said, I look at the Dow/Gold ratio to assess valuations using a historic perspective. The Dow/Gold is now about 6.9 at the moment and I have been targeting 5.x (I listed this in post #93 on page #3) for almost 2 years now. I think this value will come and it will be time to evaluate the value proposition of Gold in relation to other things. Of coarse this ratio can happen different ways: silver could simply jump up or the Dow could crash another 1000 points or a combination of both which is the likely scenario.

Definitely- a $50/oz Silver could very well happen in 6 months time.
I think Silver is a screaming buy with today's drop. You're very correct in your assessment of the Gold/Silver ratios being skewed- they're even more skewed today and that should snap back at some time. It's hard to predict when this snap is going to happen so I simply add positions each month and forget about timing things too much.

Silver did blow gold away in performance this last year so it's understandable that it will fall harder like today. It sounds like the rumors are that margin calls may have caused some of gold/silver's sell off possibly. We might see some more weakness the next few days so I would chunk buys instead of doing one large purchase. I bought a little more SLV today but want to do some bullion rounds with 401K money.

I would definitely place the $500/month savings into Silver at these levels. Just keep enough cash around to keep you afloat for a couple of months and average the rest into gold/silver. I think you'll be glad you did this in less than 5 years time. I do something similar with my 'car account' where I save about $400/month for the next car purchase that tends to be cash. I have been putting that money also into Silver and it has done very well the last few years, so my next TL is paid for now in silver alone- although today perhaps a TSX instead. So I'm definitely practicing what I have been preaching these days.

 

Dow = 10,920
Gold= 1854
Gold/Dow ratio = 5.89

Well this week gold broke another important milestone that I track which is the Dow/Gold ratio- it's now in the 5.8x range. My 2012 target was 5.0 so it's moviing faster and even accelerating. The gold bandwagon still has a few seats open and I'll give you my seats once it breaks 4.x. CNBC is now saying gold is going to climb and it's a 'safe' trade. Those are the signs of a bubble finally forming but my dow/gold ratio is my final decision point on bubble status.

 

Lol, i again priced diamonds and a gold setting compared to jan/feb and these prices are really going up.
I have to spend almost $1000 more than in the beginning of the year compared to now. I am very sure the prices will climb by dec. when i was going to buy for my wife.

I told her that at these prices it's unrealistac and she was fine with that and understands.
I am very thankful that she's understanding and doesn't care. I hate to disappoint though.

 

I have no idea how high gold or treasuries are going to go. However, when those bubbles pop it's going to be spectacular.

 

it may be like something that we've never seen before.

 

Sounds like you have a keeper!

 

I've been watching this and it's up 3.6% today. Is this still a buy?

 

^ Believe it or not SLV might be a better buy if it breaks 42.01 now to the upside. It looks like SLV is in a near-term trading range from $33-$41. Once it breaks 42, then this trading range is busted and the $42 level forms support to help slow down any drop in price. I bought my last allotment of SLV shares on 8/4 @ 38.92 so I have bought at these levels recently- I'm thus practicing what I have been writing about the last few years.

Today SLV broke the earlier high this month and closed at 41.68- the previous monthly high was 41.19. My guess is SLV will break 42.01 and then run quickly to test the 48.35 high set in May. With these technicals and the fundamental issues that SLV helps hedge against, I would definitely be a buyer at these levels- especially if I had no position.

 

You got that right!

 

I got in at $41.15 and plan to leave it sit for a while. This position made me more on Friday than the money made sitting in an ING account for the last three months. I'm contemplating moving more of my savings that direction.

Any other commodities worth checking out? I feel like if I bought more metal, it wouldn't be diversified. Just looking to beat the 1% that I'm earning at ING and still be fairly liquid.

 

Are all of you investors placing at spot prices? Does anyone see a premium in graded coin like MS70 or PF70?

 

I wouldn't bother buying these type of coins with a premium to them. I don't think they're going to out-appreciate other choices. I would much rather own 1.5 oz in Krugerrands than one '2011 $50 1-oz Gold Buffalo PCGS-MS70 First Strike ' as an example of what I'm trying to say. The rounds are even a little cheaper.

 

I also had a good Friday and week for that matter. The SP500 was down 4.7% but my two taxable accounts (I don't scrutinize IRA/401ks as much) were up almost 2% so I gained 6.7% over the market- not bad for one week's performance.

Regarding other commodities, I would definitely be looking at OIL with it at current low levels. Favorite trade for this premise is USO i-share. Eventually oil (priced in Dollars) will go up because Dollars are dropping in value compared to other currencies.

Another long-term safe bet of coarse is shorting US Treasuries that still keep surprising me of their resilience- eventually that 'bubble' will pop and it will be a bigger doozy than when gold pops. For this premise, the TBT i-share is the way to go.

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2NJnL10vZ1Y

 

Got in on some SLV. Up 2% so far.

Hope you're right LaCosta about hitting $48 high soon

 

^ I'm pretty certain you'll see $48 as long as you're patient. My long term price target is $100/oz for silver. I'm a long term guy and have been in this market since 1994 and the returns have been stellar but it has not been a straight shot up by any means.

 

Perhaps some QE3 will make things move

 

It's interesting to see the general market fluctuation in relation to GLD / SLV fluctuation, although I am too much of a noob to understand why.

Why does +2.5% on the Dow = -2.5% in precious metals or is this unrelated?

 

SLV now at 41.06 (-1.56)

Today is a prime example of silver taking a hit. The Monday gap up in price will probably be filled so people wanting to get on this bandwagon might be able to get in around $40 if they're lucky. Silver took a huge hit on negative on-balance-volume at 9:30EST and it's trying to dig itself out technically.

 

For you heavy trading dudes, I ask again why not buy graded coins. You can sell them from eBay to Craigslist to the pawn shop and not have (or won't) pay capital gains?

 

Peter Schiff in the book 'Bull Moves in Bear Markets' page 116:
15 .1oz Krugerrands will do better in the long run (from a bullion perspective) than 1 graded '2011 $50 1-oz Gold Buffalo PCGS-MS70 First Strike ' coin in terms of bullion value. It's much easier to determine value for the Krug because there is a broad market for Krugs or Eagles. That's not to say the graded coins won't move up either- it's just harder to make a sale if you want to and the value will fluctuate more based on demand. I would guess a pawn shop doesn't pay a huge premium for the First strike than they would for an Eagle- not nearly the premium you would wind up paying a dealer. I don't know as fact, but that's my hunch.

Also it's an all or nothing deal that you have with numismatics- either own the entire numismatic or none of it where as if I need to unload a couple of .1oz Krugs, I'll still have more in my pocket. It depends on what you're investment premise is: are you buying to retain value or buying in hopes of appreciation based on collector rarity.

The best investment for people who have nothing (yet) is 'junk silver coins' which are the pre-1965 90% silver coins. That's what I did and it's up 900+% from 1994.

 

Here's a link about gold and a price projection that might interest the bulls: http://www.marketwatch.com/story/gol...ist=beforebell

 

Gold Tumbles Most Since December 2008
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Gold-T...&asset=&ccode=
Click link for full story