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Yeah...it definitely works just like the Twitters show:
Last November, Elon Musk announced that Tesla’s so-called “Full Self-Driving Beta” software would become available to all Tesla owners. Just hours later, news broke that a Tesla Model S had caused an eight-car pile-up on San Francisco’s Bay Bridge. The crash sent nine people to the hospital and caused a massive traffic jam as emergency crews had to stop traffic for 90 minutes to bring in ambulances and clear the wrecked cars from the bridge. The driver claimed “Full Self-Driving” was active at the time of the crash.
Today, The Intercept published videos and photos of the crash that it obtained from a California Public Records Act request. We can’t embed them here, but you should definitely head over to the linked article to give the videos a watch. It’s a pretty bad pile-up, and people were injured, but thankfully, none of the injuries were life-threatening, and you don’t see anything graphic in the footage.
The video confirms initial reports that the Tesla was driving with traffic before changing lanes while braking for no discernible reason. The footage also appears consistent with previous reports of Tesla drivers regularly experiencing “phantom braking” in cars with FSD activated. The Intercept also reports that at least 285,000 Teslas in North America are now equipped with FSD.
In February of last year, the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration announced an investigation into Tesla’s deceptively-named driver-assistance feature. Over the course of nine months, NHTSA said it had received 354 complaints about Tesla phantom braking. The incidents continued to occur even after Tesla was forced to roll back its FSD update in October 2021.
As you can see in the videos published by The Intercept, Tesla clearly hasn’t worked out the problem, despite knowing about for more than a year now. But Elon Musk did recently tweet that the automaker plans to remove one of Tesla’s only FSD safety features: the “steering wheel nag” part of its driver monitoring system. That Musk tweet also got the attention of NHTSA, which confirmed yesterday that it has contacted Tesla about the tweet as part of its larger investigation into the automaker’s driver-assistance system.
On the same day, Tesla announced another update to its FSD policy that would only suspend drivers who abused the system for a two-week period. Previously, inattentive drivers could be locked out of using FSD for as long as six months.
It’s not clear when NHTSA will wrap up its investigation or what it will do once the investigation is concluded. But yesterday, Ann Carlson, the acting head of the agency, told Reuters, “the resources require a lot of technical expertise, actually some legal novelty and so we’re moving as quickly as we can, but we also want to be careful and make sure we have all the information we need.”
Since 2016, the agency has reportedly opened at least three dozen special investigations into crashes involving Teslas where driver-assistance software was likely in use. So far, 19 deaths have been attributed to these crashes.
Tesla starts publishing Vehicle Safety Report after lengthy hiatus – here’s why they stopped
January 10, 2023Darryn John0 CommentsFor four years Tesla published their Vehicle Safety Report each and every quarter, highlighting just how safe their driver-assist software is compared to the average human driver, which in some instances was more than 10x safer.
Those reports came to at the end of 2021 without explanation, leading some to believe, like the LA Times’ Russ Mitchell, a frequent and vocal Tesla critic, and Taylor Ogan, chief executive at fund management firm Snow Bull Capital, to claim it was because the stats were getting worse for the company.
As it turns out it was the exact opposite. According to a January 2023 update to the Autopilot Safety Report page Tesla says they found the stats were actually better than previously reported after adjusting which metrics are included in their calculations.
“As part of Tesla’s commitment to continuous improvement, recent analysis led us to identify and implement upgrades to our data reporting. Specifically, we discovered reports of certain events where no airbag or other active restraint deployed, single events that were counted more than once, and reports of invalid or duplicated mileage records. Including these events is inconsistent with our methodology for the Vehicle Safety Report and they will be excluded going forward,” Tesla explained.
“The end result is that, when Autopilot is active, the collision rates are even lower than we previously reported,” they added.
With the new formula in place Tesla says that in Q3 2022 there was one accident approximately every 6.3 million miles when Autopilot technology is active. This compares to about 1.8 million miles in Tesla vehicles when Autopilot is not active, and about 600,000 miles for all other vehicles in the US, based on NHTSA and Federal Highway Administration (FHWA) data.
This is the second best quarter since Tesla started reported the figures in Q3 2018. The best quarter was Q1 2022 when there was one accident every 6.5 million miles when Autopilot was active.
Looking at some of the recalculated historical data, the stats have improved as Tesla said. In Q1 2021 Tesla originally reported one accident every 4.19 million miles when Autopilot was active. Now that figure has increased to around 4.6 million miles. In Q4 2020 there was one accident every 3.45 million miles, compared to about 3.8 million miles now included in the report.
^ and as usual, there's probably some context behind those stats (like a lot of those autopilot miles are probably on highways where the rest of the cars/drivers also don't have accidents) that would make them look less favorable. I'm sure Caddy could probably also publish some stat like that with the SuperCruise. Based on that stat, Tesla car insurance should be just about free if you use autopilot all the time, right?
Yep, not to mention the fact that Tesla insurance is almost always more expensive than others. Shit, the cost to insure my Rivian is ~$150/6mo cheaper than the Model 3. If AP is that safe, let alone FSD, why is that?
Yep, not to mention the fact that Tesla insurance is almost always more expensive than others. Shit, the cost to insure my Rivian is ~$150/6mo cheaper than the Model 3. If AP is that safe, let alone FSD, why is that?
it’s a nickel and dime scam. And they use the “driving score” to constantly up the rates. And we know how many “errors” the car itself makes that would affect said score.
but even more so. After dealing with teslas customer service I’d hate to ever have to deal with them on a claim. I have USAA which is long considered one of the best and even their quality has gotten shitty over the years. So I imagine dealing with teslas would be an exercise high blood pressure and potential heart attack.
Agreed. We have Progressive and they have been fantastic. Tesla insurance quote was laughably higher than what I pay today and Progressive didn't even ask if I have autopilot or FSD. Having FSD would likely make my rates higher lol.
This doesn't surprise me as to how well vertically integrated tesla is and how they brought battery manufacturing inhouse.
There’s a reason why Tesla has been able to drastically cut its vehicle prices across the board without breaking a sweat. The automaker reportedly earns more money per vehicle than literally all of its rivals. Now, Reuters reports that Tesla is using that fact as another weapon in the EV price war.
The Austin, Texas-based company was at one point one of the automotive industry’s biggest money-losers, but during 2022 Tesla built quite a lead over everyone when it comes to profit per vehicle, according to the outlet....
So Teslas have more range, better charging network, more features, get OTA updates, quicker 0-60, better profit margin, and still cost less than the competition. How are the competition going to catch up and pass them by selling more expensive cars with a smaller profit margin that aren't as good? Elon's tweets?
Then muskrat-mobiles SHOULD slash their prices, because, you know, save the planet by allowing MORE people to be able to afford the wonder car. Fucking hypocrite.
The less efficient your car the bigger battery you need to travel the same distance, the bigger the battery the more it costs, the more it costs the less you make if you want to be price and range competitive, RIP your profit margin, RIP your company.
We'll see if Elon's tweets are enough to get people to pay more for a car with less range and features
So Teslas have more range (not true), better charging network (yes), more features (not true), get OTA updates (they all do), quicker 0-60 (not true), better profit margin (other automakers still make a buttload of money off of other cars), and still cost less than the competition (not true). How are the competition going to catch up and pass them by selling more expensive cars with a smaller profit margin that aren't as good? Elon's tweets?
The less efficient your car the bigger battery you need to travel the same distance, the bigger the battery the more it costs, the more it costs the less you make if you want to be price and range competitive, RIP your profit margin, RIP your company.
We'll see if Elon's tweets are enough to get people to pay more for a car with less range and features
You're comparing a tricycle and two small cars to large pickup trucks and are surprised that they take more power? In other news, water is wet.
Then muskrat-mobiles SHOULD slash their prices, because, you know, save the planet by allowing MORE people to be able to afford the wonder car. Fucking hypocrite.
Tesla has been supply limited for years, they could cut prices in half to increase demand but they wouldn't sell anymore. Even with the prices as high as they were Tesla still sold more EVs last year than any other company on the planet. So if they sell vehicles for a higher cost they'll still sell them all (over 1.3 million last year) and they can take the extra money they made from the higher prices and reinvest it back into the company so they can increase production capacity by building a new factory, production line, lithium refinery, etc, so they can make more EVs sooner.
Tesla, which was second in Consumer Reports ratings in 2020 behind Super Cruise, fell to seventh, the group said. The electric vehicle maker did not respond to a request for comment.
Tesla hasn’t changed Autopilot’s basic functionality, instead adding more features to it, the group said.
"After all this time, Autopilot still doesn’t allow collaborative steering and doesn’t have an effective driver monitoring system," said Consumer Reports Auto Testing director Jake Fisher in a statement.
While people still digest Tesla’s Q4 2022 earnings call discussions, it appears that the Cybertruck was not the only hot topic. The upcoming Autopilot HW4 computer and the accompanying sensor suite were also high on investors’ minds. Elon Musk confirmed that the new Autopilot computer would arrive with the Cybertruck, although he contradicted himself over the benefits it might bring.
Although Elon Musk and Tesla keep insisting that all Tesla vehicles come with everything needed, hardware-wise, to unleash Full Self-Driving, there are strong indications that this is not the case. Tesla CEO spoke about a next-generation Autopilot computer during the 2021 AI Day event, which, coming after HW3, was naturally named HW4. Although no other details were offered, people expected to have vastly improved processing power over the current HW3.
Since then, bits of information regarding the new Autopilot computer have been revealed unofficially. This is how we’ve learned about the new camera pack included with the new sensor suite. Tesla will feature higher-resolution cameras with a wider field of view and reduce their number. The HW4 is also expected to come with a high-resolution radar, which contradicts everything Tesla has said about its “vision-only” beliefs.
Tesla enthusiasts expected the HW computer to launch earlier this year based on a confidentiality agreement with the FCC regarding the HR radar. Unfortunately for those hoping to get it with their next Tesla soon, Elon Musk confirmed that the HW4 suite would launch with the Cybertruck. This means the first vehicles featuring the new sensors and the more powerful computer would not get in the hands of the customers earlier than Q3, if at all this year.
Indeed the Cybertruck would start low-volume production this summer as planned, but the first units aren’t likely to be sold to real customers. Elon Musk said that volume production is delayed until 2024, so this is the likeliest timeframe for the first vehicles with Hardware 4. Based on Musk’s words, it’s not clear what are the advantages of the new hardware suite. For once, he said that he doesn’t think cars with the HW3 computer need to upgrade to the HW4.
Indeed, we have information that the leap from HW3 to HW4 would not be as impressive as from HW2.5 to HW3. On the other hand, Musk said that the new computer would still offer increased road safety compared to the previous-generation hardware. Two or three times safer, no less, which is significant, as it can make the difference between being dead in a crash and alive to tell the story.
“Hardware 3 will not be as good as Hardware 4, but I’m confident that Hardware 3 will still far exceed the safety of the average human,” said Musk during the Q&A session. “So what we’re aiming for is how do we get ultimately to, let’s say, for argument’s sake, if Hardware 3 can be, say, 200% or 300% safer than humans, Hardware 4 might be 500% or 600%.”
Musk also poured cold water on people’s hopes that the Hardware 4 might be retrofitted to existing vehicles. Depending on what Musk’s statements you want to believe, it’s either because it will not be needed (not enough benefits, see above) or because it’s too expensive.
“The cost and difficulty of retrofitting Hardware 3 with Hardware 4 is quite significant,” said Musk. “So it would not be, I think, economically feasible to do so.”
These statements only add to the confusion. If it’s such a small incremental update over the current hardware, why is it so expensive to retrofit in the first place? Our take is that the HW4, with the improved computer, better cameras, and the additional high-resolution radar, is a quantum leap in safety and capabilities. Nevertheless, admitting that means Tesla deceived all those who bought FSD with HW3, thinking that’s all they needed for Full Self-Driving.
Then muskrat-mobiles SHOULD slash their prices, because, you know, save the planet by allowing MORE people to be able to afford the wonder car. Fucking hypocrite.
As long as you realize that the more people buy the “muskrat mobiles” (per your description) the less customers are available to buy your “expensive to maintain” legacy ICE cars. And once they choose the EV route, there’s usually no coming back. So choose your wishes wisely because they’ll come true.
01-06-2023, 10:48 AM
For four years Tesla published their Vehicle Safety Report each and every quarter, highlighting just how safe their driver-assist software is compared to the average human driver, which in some instances was more than 10x safer.
by allowing MORE people to be able to afford the wonder car. Fucking hypocrite.
