moeronn

Not much MLB discussion since the NFL season started, so how about some post season talk?

AL looks pretty set as to who's in (BOS, CLE, LAA + NYY W/C), just trying to decide who gets home field. All records are within a couple games of each other. Angels get home field.

Things are a lot tighter in the NL - and too close to call at this point.

Eoanou

Out of those four AL teams you mentioned, I don't think CLE will be a serious contender for the WS, though.

jlukja

I won't be talking about the Dodgers in this thread.

Eoanou

In the NL, I think Arizona will beat out San Diego for the division lead, and I was hoping the Brewers would beat out Chicago, but that's not going to happen.

Scottman111

x2


I've always liked the Angels...hoping they go far.

Eoanou

Too bad Escobar has been playing like crap his last five starts, went from a sub 3 ERA to a mid 3 ERA.

moeronn

Many of their pitchers have faltered over the last month or so - starters, relievers and even K-Rod.

GIBSON6594

I think we are going to have a Subway Series again

Scottman111

Yeah, probably from being overworked.


And anyone want to bet on how many years (or months) K-Rod's elbow has left?

Eoanou

Even so, they are still winning, their offense is picking up the slack.

*cough* Garret Anderson *cough*

moeronn

I think the bullpen actually got too much time off at one point and lost some of their "stuff"

And K-Rod probably has another couple years before he goes in for surgery. Hopefully, they'll have someone to take over before that happens.
And a lot of people were saying it was time to trade him when he, for pretty much the first time, ended up on the DL.

Figgins has been pretty hot, too.

Eoanou

I wonder who will get home field advantage, so far Cleveland is up by a half game. The Angels can't lose tonights game against Texas.

Eoanou

:ibColoradoWinsTheNLWILDCARD:

Yumcha

Looks like Cubbies got a comfy lead...but, I won't be giggling until it's time to giggle.


Do they have a shot at making some noise in the playoffs...? I think so. But, then again, they are the Cubs. And wow, if Steve Bartman is allowed in the stands again, I'm flying back to Chicago and personally dropkicking him.

Eoanou

I really don't like Dempster as a closer, .

Eoanou

But they'll take their division for sure and if Zambrano is healthy and on top of his game they might make it the the NLCS.

IlliNorge

AL best record gets the Yankees (unless it's Boston), which would be nice for Angels fans. I'm pulling for Cleveland.

If the Rocks win the wild card, they should just hand the MVP to Holliday. The crap about Wright getting it is ridiculous. Can the Cubs blow a 3.5 game lead? Probably not..... They have underachieved all season, so maybe this is their peak.

I'm pulling for Arizona in the NL. This Young guy is incredibly underrated. In fact anyone on an NL West contender is swallowed up by the Yankees/Red Sox/Mets All the more reason to hate NY. Watch when the postseason times come out. The Yankees and Mets will get the 7:00 while the Padres and D'backs will get the late morning tee times when everyone's at work.

Yumcha

He's like...Rex Grossman on the mound.




Hopefully, Lou will use Marmol and/or Wood...?
Howry can close too. Do a closer-by-committee...

IlliNorge

The Cubs announcers will quickly tell you he has saved 29 out of 32 chances.....completely ignoring his 5+ ERA (which is damn hard to do as a reliever). Piniella will go with Dempster until he blows a big one.

Yumcha

So, despite being in the Windy State, you're not rooting for the Cubbies, are you...?

IlliNorge

The whole state's windy now? I'll root for the Cubs against the Mets.

Yumcha

Gee...thanks.

Eoanou

I'd like to see how Mike Wilbon will react when the Cubs lose to the Mets if they play each other.

GIBSON6594

Why hate the Mets? Underdogs all throughout their history, never bullies or braggers. Just a solid, well put together team.

And you can't be mad at NY because we get the good time slots, be mad at the fans of MOST other teams who has as much interest in baseball as your average NY baseball fan has in his pinky toe.

Maybe if they actually watches games the tv stations would want those games on during primetime.

IlliNorge

With that payroll, they aren't underdogs any more.

The Mets have a ton of money, which automatically puts them on my bad list. They stole Castillo from the Twins purely based on the money. The Mets get primetime solely because there are a ton of people in New York City, not because a greater percentage of the fans care.

Don't worry though, I like the Mets 20x more than the Yankees.

Eoanou

I'm a Met fan and I agree with everything you said, you can't be an underdog with the league's fifth highest payroll.

GIBSON6594

Yea, because money clearly buys championships...come on people. The Yanks havn't won in 7 years

moeronn

That doesn't make them underdogs, it makes them disappointments.

NetEditor

Payroll doesn't guarantee a championship but it sure helps (World Series winners with payroll rankings):

2005 Chicago 13th
2004 Boston 2nd
2003 Florida 25th
2002 Anaheim 15th
2001 Arizona 8th
2000 New York 1st
1999 New York 1st
1998 New York 1st

And the Yankees haven't missed the playoffs since 1994, so payroll more or less gets them in the playoffs and a shot at a championship. Once you're in the playoffs, anything can happen.

GIBSON6594

My underdog comment was about the Mets, you're telling me they havn't been underdogs for the past 40 years?

Pull_T

Let's revisit this once the season is over.

Home field is important, but more importantly, the LDS with 5 game crapshoots are very hard to handicap without knowing how the rotations are set up as well as knowing what offday structures each series has. In many ways, that's more important than the actual quality of the clubs involved.

GIBSON6594

I would have used those numbers to prove my point. And throw in 2006 as well with the Cardinals, who ranked at 11th. So since the big "Yankee Dynasty" it looks like this:

2006 St. Louis 11th
2005 Chicago 13th
2004 Boston 2nd
2003 Florida 25th
2002 Anaheim 15th
2001 Arizona 8th

Four out of six years teams not even in the top 10 in payroll win the World Series?

Pull_T

Well, that's still 5 of 6 in the top half of salaries...and if I go back all the way to 95, it's 11 of 12.

Expand the study to include all playoff qualifiers and you have a similar ratio...

But anyway, the problem isn't that only the top few teams can win championships...it's that teams in the bottom 10 have no chance to compete on any consistent basis.

GIBSON6594

That's one thing about this season that is interesting in the NL. Everything is so tight, even some of the lower teams, like Arizona, are competing and competing seriously.

GIBSON6594

And obviously talent wins games and money buys talent, I don't think anyone expects the Pirates to win anything, but hating a team because they spend money just doesn't make sense to me. I rooted for the Mets when they were in the cellar for years and my only complaint was that the Wilpons and Doubledays wouldn't spend money on the team. Now that the Wilpons are spending we are winning and I'm happy. I just don't see the point of hating other teams because you don't like the way the owners run the team you like. Hate your owners, IMO.

Pull_T

Well, the NL West has the 24th, 25th and 26th teams in payroll all in the same division...not really a wonder that they are competing.

Here and there, low payroll teams can make a little noise or even get hot and win the World Series (Marlins in 2003). Those occasions do not disprove that there are competitive issues in the game due to payroll capacity.

All I was doing was putting your numbers into perspective.

moeronn

My disappointment comment was about the Yanks.

Scottman111

He used to be a Red. I knew he sucked before he was a Cub.

Eoanou

Back a few years ago you could be a serious contender and still get into the playoffs, Oakland is a primary example. They are the cheapest team and they would still win games, now, though, its a completely different story, they have no offense to speak of because they are too cheap.

Pull_T

It's not so much that you can't ever make the playoffs with a low payroll, or even on occasion come in and win the WS.

The problem is that you can't consistently compete. Oakland did well for a few years with shrewd scouting that gave them a good young crop of players. However, they lost all of those players and even their excellent farm system and scouting can't reload to contend year in and year out.

Is an easy fix...salary cap, salary floor, player max cap and more revenue sharing of local broadcast dollars. Both sides are too blind to see that both will be better off.