chinoz

both teams have underacheived this year..

thinking I might take Rut at home.. but who knows..

chinoz

Mich St .. Hawaii last year on the island was the biggest fix ever... at least for my gambling era... it was so obvious...

Nugs3

Pinnacle Pulse
The inside line from PinnacleSports.com by Simon Noble

Welcome to the Pinnacle Pulse where the line managers at Pinnacle Sports
look to give you an insider’s view of the point spread movement on key
games each week and provide you with a little gambling theory to help you
find a smarter way to bet courtesy of Pinnacle Sports.

Last week we looked at the vigorish on sides which is the bookmaker's cut
for taking your bet. With some notable dogs winning outright over the
weekend, we thought it might be interesting to take a look at the vig on
moneyline wagers in this week’s column.

At Lambeau Field we offered the Cleveland Browns on the moneyline at +235
and the Green Bay Packers at -255, but how easy is it to figure out the
vigorish on moneylines? It’s not difficult to calculate yourself when you
know how.

First convert each moneyline (ML) into a "percentage chance of winning"
for each team. For favorites, that is the ML quote / (ML - 100), so Green
Bay should win -255 / (-255 -100) = 71.83% of the time. For the underdog,
the calculation is 100 / (ML +100), so Cleveland should win 100 /
(235+100) = 29.85% of the time. If you add these two percentages together
you get a figure of 101.68%. That extra 1.68% represents the bookie's hold
or vig.

There is also an easier way to find this out by using our "Multi-Way
Calculator" which you will find on the main page at PinnacleSports.com. Go
to the calculator, select moneylines, and enter -255 and +235. The
calculator will tell you that the “percent market” is 101.68% and the
"theoretical hold" (our vig) is 1.65%.

So now you're asking yourself, "Why do the guys at Pinnacle Sports want me
to know how much vig I'm paying, or give me a tool to figure it out
myself?" Good question. The simple answer is that our odds offer better
value. On that same game, most traditional books would use a 50 cent line
and so the prices they would offer would be +205/-255. Using Pinnacle
Sports "Multi-Way Calculator" this works out to a vig of 4.41% which is
more than 2½ times more expensive than Pinnacle Sports.

Does this matter? It should matter as a $100 bettor who placed a moneyline
bet on the Browns to win last week would have won $235 or $30 more playing
low juice at Pinnacle Sports than by placing the same bet at most other
online bookmakers.

We price shop to save 5 cents a gallon on gas and smart bettors are just
as price sensitive with sports betting. By giving players up to 60% better
value than other sports books, Pinnacle Sports is the destination of
choice for savvy bettors everywhere and these are the games that have
attracted their early interest.

New England (+3) at Pittsburgh

The Patriots lost several key personnel on the defensive side during the
off-season, and it shows. Last season, they gave up 16.3 points per game.
In the first two weeks of this season, Patriots opponents have averaged
23.5 points per game. Meanwhile, the 2004 AFC runner-up Pittsburgh
Steelers have outscored their opponents 61-14 in the first two weeks. In
regular season games, Pittsburgh's Rothlisberger is now 15-0 as a starter.

The game opened at Pittsburgh -2.5 -104, and was quickly driven to -3 -104
by sharp action. The line has now settled there and we’re seeing action on
both teams from the sharp players.


Arizona at Seattle O/U 41.5

Totals are always difficult to evaluate for the books at the beginning of
the season. Both of these teams have slightly above average offenses in
terms of a yardage total – the league average is just over 300, while
Arizona and Seattle average 348 and 375 yards, respectively. Both defenses
are also marginally better than the league average at 286 and 292 yards
respectively.

A quick and dirty approach to NFL totals is to predict how many yards of
total offense there will be in a game, subtract 325 and then divide by
7.5. I thought this game would have about 650 yards, making 43 a fair
opener however our opening line of 43 -105 now looks like a bad number.

All the early money was on the under, which drove the number to its
current stable price. Despite moving 3 half-points this is not a giant
move as 43 and 42 are relatively dead numbers. In fact early players
taking Pittsburgh -2.5 received more value than someone playing under 43
on this game.

Why are people betting the under? Seattle and Arizona both underperformed
for the offensive yards they generated. Last week, Arizona's 409 offensive
yards netted just 4 field goals and Seattle's 444 yards produced only 21
points.

Tennessee (+6.5) at St. Louis

This is an interesting match up from a turnover perspective. Tennessee has
a -3 turnover differential, whereas St. Louis is +2. Few events can change
a game more than an interception or a lost fumble. We have all heard the
saying that "Teams that turn the ball over can't win!" but do bad teams
really turn the ball over more, or are turnovers just flukes of the game
that make a team look bad? Or is the truth perhaps some combination of the
two?

We opened this game at -5.5 -113, and were immediately swarmed by the
sharps, who quickly bet us down to -6 -109. Then, the whales moved in.
These are individual players that when they take a position, they move the
market. Several of these larger bettors played the favorite at -109,
forcing us to move defensively to -6.5.


Georgia Tech (+11) at Virginia Tech

Virginia Tech has a different look from last year with Marcus Vick running
the offense after missing last year due to suspension, while the Hokies’
defense includes 5 new starters, including 3 in the secondary. Despite the
turnover in starters, Virginia Tech's defense has posted two consecutive
shutouts against Duke and Ohio.

Reggie Ball, Georgia Tech's starting QB missed last week's game against
Connecticut due to viral meningitis. Redshirt freshman Taylor Bennet got
the start and completed only 11 of 30 passes. Released from hospital
Monday, Ball is questionable for Saturday. If Ball cannot make the start
or is not up to form, Virginia Tech's defense could badly embarrass the
Yellow Jackets.

We opened this game at Virginia Tech -10 -105. Early action pushed it up
to -10.5, where there was contention between the sharps. Public money has
continued to drive this price up to -11, but the sharps are passing on
that number until they receive further word on Reggie Ball.

Simon Noble,
PinnacleSports.com

Nugs3

Pinnacle Pulse
The inside line from PinnacleSports.com by Simon Noble

In earlier columns we’ve discussed the effect of discounted vigorish on
major sports. This week, I'd like to take a closer look at proposition
bets. A proposition (or prop bet) is simply a wager on something other
than a game spread or total. It can cover anything from which of two
batters will get more hits, to who will win the next Heisman trophy.
Proposition wagers are typically available on any major sport.

Why should you bother with propositions? The answer is simple - these are
the easiest for a player to beat. Most bettors will be shocked to learn
this, but sports books routinely lose money on props and oftentimes a
break-even day is considered a small victory.

When you see a spread on an NFL game, that spread is the result of at
least a dozen separate odds makers whose collective opinion is merged to
form the market. When you wager on a proposition, it’s typically your
opinion versus one odds maker. If you know more than that one odds maker,
you are going to get the best of it.

Sports books know that propositions are dangerous. Many try to protect
themselves by using 30 or 40 cent lines with low wagering limits. Some
will even force prop players to mix their action by playing regular lines
as a condition of continued proposition wagering. Many professional
players will confirm this – for the smaller players, betting on props is
one of the best ways to win long-term. And by playing at low juice, the
odds will be even more in your favor.

At PinnacleSports.com we use a 16 cent line on props, which offers up to
60% greater value than other books. With hundreds of propositions to
choose from including props on every major sport as well as fantasy
football player match-ups, reality TV shows, poker tournaments and even
the World Chess Championships, there is literally something for everyone.

Why do sports books continue offering props? At Pinnacle Sports we have
noticed two things that make props worth offering: 1) new players drawn by
props never leave after trying the rest of the site; and 2) prop players
branch out to the rest of our discount-priced wagering like on the games
below, which have seen interesting betting patterns early in the week.

Florida (-4 +106) at Alabama

Urban Meyer has won his last 20 games as a head coach, a streak beginning
on November 1, 2003 while coaching Utah. He hopes to earn his fifth win
this season leading the Gators into Tuscaloosa. This match-up features
two of the strongest defenses in the country; Florida allowing 232.5
yds/game, and Alabama permitting 223 yds/game.

Beware the early money, as it is usually sharp. This game was no exception
with regular sharps all over Alabama early. This opened at Alabama +4
+105, and was bet down to +4 -116 (or +3.5 -110). We are seeing some
opposition at -4 -101, but we are unsure which way this game will head
closer to the weekend.

Notre Dame (+3) at Purdue

Weis's Irish have opened up their offense, averaging 295 passing yards per
game, and 475 total yards per game. Notre Dame has not generated that much
offense in any of the last 10 years. Purdue has pursued a more balanced
attack, averaging 218 passing yards, and 210 rushing yards per game. Both
defenses seem soft and each allows roughly 300 yards per game. Statistics
are a dangerous tool to use for odds making in NCAA football, especially
in the early season. Statistics get distorted when a high tier team plays
down (like Notre Dame against Pittsburgh and Washington, or Purdue versus
Akron).

We opened this game at Purdue -1.5. Around 5:00pm on Sunday, other books
opened at Purdue -3.5.The sharp players moved in like vultures, picking
off the gap. Able to take Purdue -1.5 -105 and Notre Dame +3.5 at other
books, the market squeezed to a neutral point around -2.5 / -3. Due to our
opener, a majority of the early money was on Purdue. Once the price
stabilized, we were still seeing sharp action on Purdue at -2.5/-109 and
-3/+107.

Dallas (+3) at Oakland

The Raiders are 0-3 after losing competitive games to New England,
Philadelphia and Kansas City. Oakland is still favored at home though
against the 2-1 Cowboys. Dallas struggled to win last week against San
Francisco, scoring two 4th quarter TD's to win 34-31.

Games lined on a "3" are both interesting and frightening for a line
manager. We opened the game at +3 +105, and are seeing the sharper players
divided on this game. Raiders backers are using point buy/selling to play
-2.5, -3 and -3.5. We have other professional players on Dallas +3 and
+3.5 but none are selling down to +2.5. If the game lands on the "3", we
end up paying wagers on both sides of the game.

Indianapolis (-7) at Tennessee

Indianapolis disappointed its backers last week. After getting first and
goal from the Cleveland 7 with 88 seconds left, Indianapolis knelt on the
ball 3 times. This secured an injury-free win for the Colts and a loss for
those betting Indianapolis at -13.5 last week. The Colts defense has
played well allowing only 16 points the entire season. Meanwhile,
Tennessee has had offensive problems, managing only four offensive
touchdowns in three games.

We opened this game at -6.5 flat, and all the early action was on the
Colts. When it was bet down to -6.5 -109, we started to get money
trickling in on the dog, mostly bought up to +7. For now, we are siding
with the dog bettors and accepting Colts money by holding our price. As
with all games lined on the "3" and "7", we are seeing a lot of point
buying through the key number.

San Diego at New England O/U 47

This year, games with these two teams have averaged 49 points per game. It
is early in the season though, and team statistics tend to revert somewhat
towards the mean.

We opened this with a total of 45 and were flooded with over money at a
ratio of eight wagers on the over for every one accepted on the under.
Even after we moved to 47, there is still upward pressure as part of the
market is trading at 47.5. Those who played over 45 got great value, but
how much? The 45 hits about 3% of the time; the 46 hits 1.5% and the 47
hits 3% of the time. Therefore over 45 should win a little over 55% of the
time. Thanks to -105 pricing, those early sharps netted at least an 8%
theoretical yield on their bets.

Nugs3

Sports Marketwatch - Early Moves Edition
NFL Week 4
9/27/2005 1:35PM EST
by Daniel Fabrizio
SportsInsights

Welcome to this week's EARLY edition of the Sports Marketwatch where Daniel Fabrizio, founder of SportsInsights.com provides readers with unprecedented insight into the NFL point spread market. Every Tuesday and Friday afternoon he speaks directly with the line managers at Pinnacle, Bowmans, 5Dimes, Carib, and Oasis about which games the public is chasing and the Sharps are pounding.

If you ever wanted to know what was really happening on the sportsbook side, you now have an all access pass!

NFL Week 3 Recap
NFL Week 3 had the public begging for mercy again! At this rate the public will be busted the first month of season. All books reporting their THIRD STRAIGHT MONSTROUS NFL Sunday. SportsInsights analysis shows that in games with over 70% of the action on one side the public was a miserable 0-3. SportsInsights.com’s Games to Watch feature was an impressive 4-1. Overall that makes SportsInsights 12-3 for the NFL Season. View last week’s column,

NFL Week 4 Sports Marketwatch – Games to Watch
Look for handle size to be noticeably down this week, caused by three continuous weeks of the sportsbooks beating their players. . So far, September has been very good to the sportsbooks. All of the top sportsbooks are reporting record-breaking revenue with Sharp accounts flush with cash – and there’s still 3 days left in the month. You can expect to see some decent line moves this week with all that Sharp cash out there.

Let’s see what NFL Week 4 has in store of us.

San Diego vs New England

A lot of books opened up at -5.5 and quick saw Sharp action take San Diego +5.5 beating the line down to -5. Steve Stone Line Manager at told me “We opened at -5.5 expecting a lot of public action but immediate got hit by couple big accounts”. Pinnacle conversely opened at -5 and have pretty much remained their.

Line Manger Simon Noble of Pinnacle reports,
"This year, games with these two teams have averaged 49 points per game. It is early in the season though, and team statistics tend to revert somewhat towards the mean. We opened this with a total of 45 and were flooded with over money at a ratio of eight wagers on the over for every one accepted on the under. Even after we moved to 47, there is still upward pressure as part of the market is trading at 47.5. Those who played over 45 got great value, but how much? The 45 hits about 3% of the time; the 46 hits 1.5% and the 47 hits 3% of the time. Therefore over 45 should win a little over 55% of the time. Thanks to -105 pricing, those early sharps netted at least an 8% theoretical yield on their bets."

Houston vs Cincinnati

Here’s a clash of two teams heading in opposite directions. Houston was touted by most sports writers as a playoff contender, but has yet to show up on Sunday. The big surprise with Cincinnati isn’t the fact they’re winning, but how easily they’ve dismantled their first three opponents.

Of course, this is shaping up to be a classic trap game. Expect the media to pump-up Cincinnati and degrade Houston. It’s already happening. But really… -9.5??? The sportsbooks are just begging the public to take Cincinnati. We expect the public action to move this line to -10, -10.5, and then look for Sharp action to beat it back to -9.5. Houston +10.5 is great value play. Your getting at least 1.5-2pts of shade. We’ll take it every time.

I talked with Scott Kaminsky line manger at Bowmans.com who said that, “This is shaping up to be our biggest decision of the week”.

Indianapolis vs. Tennessee

How many of you read our comments on last week’s Indianapolis versus Cleveland game and thought we were crazy? If you remember, we said Cleveland wasn’t that bad and at +15 was a great value play.

The “Can’t Miss” Colts are still the public darlings, even after failing to cover the last two Sundays. It’s all about public perception which is fuel by media hype. The media loves Manning and the Colts so the public continues to bet them.

Pinnacle reports, "We opened this game at -6.5 flat, and all the early action was on the Colts. When it was bet down to -6.5 -109, we started to get money trickling in on the dog, mostly bought up to +7. For now, we are siding with the dog bettors and accepting Colts money by holding our price. As with all games lined on the "3" and "7", we are seeing a lot of point buying through the key number."

Bowmanss and Oasis reporting heavy square action on Colts -6.5. A lot of books moved to -7 but were quick beat back by Sharp action to -6.5. 5Dimes.com is one of the few books holding the line at 7. Luka Line Manager at 5Dimes reported, “We feel 7 is the correct number and see no reason to move off it.” Home dogs +7, I’ll take it every time!

That’s it for the early look at week 4 of the NFL season. Keep Sports Marketwatch handy – we’ll be back Friday night to update you on the latest lines directly from the top online sportsbooks.

Enjoy!
Daniel Fabrizio
Founder
SportsInsights

Rhlieu

Thanks for the info Nugs, good reading!!!

Rhlieu

Alright guys, I have a pretty easy one tonight!!!! CSU -3.5. (2 units) You guys might think why CSU? First off, living in Colorado, I know for a FACT that CSU is the better team. 2nd, I think AF got to much hype because of their two games on national TV, WASH, where they came back, and last week when they cover the spread in the last sec. vs UT. 3rd Somehow AF think they are a good passing team, and not doing their triple option as much (Their bread and butter = Time Killer). If it is going to be a high scoring affair, CSU will win easy. Justin Holland, CSU qb is very good if he has time. With AF’s weak defense, they should be able to pick AF apart. GL

Edr0e

Ive got the moneyline (+135) on the Air Force

Now you tell me this...

Rhlieu

GL Edroe, at least one of us will be happy at the end of the night.
How much did you take ML???

Nugs3

Playing AF +4.5
under 62.5

.5 units each

I kinda like CSU but can't take them -4.5. AF small since the whole world is on them

Nugs3

AF 52% and 24
Col St 48% and 17
Ov 52% and 12
Un 48% and 10

Public/Services

Another says

AIR FORCE - 63.64%
Under - 55.56%

i think the public is on the under.

chinoz

didn't post.. but i'm on AF +3.5 as well

Rhlieu

Ouch, 3 on 1 tonight huh felles?

chinoz

good call Rhlieu..

i'm with you tonite on Pitt.. desperate team right now..

Pitt ML -106 (5 units)

Rhlieu

I really like this PIT game tonight. The only problem is, is this a trap game? Where if its too good to be true, it normally is. I hope it isn't, i think people really think Rugters is a team that can play with the likes of PIT, we shal see. Anyhow, this is a "must win" game for PIT too, this is the start of the BIGEAST first conf play, and they should be pumped to play on national tv.

I have no doubt that PIT will win tonight, that is what is scares me...


PIT -1 (-105) 6 units

Nugs3

This line is fucked up....Pit was getting points all week and the public was pounding them. I played them +1.5 for 1/2u and now it's pit -2.5. Is anyone even taking Rugters tonight?

I will prob stop posting plays as I do beleive in Jinx and everytime i post it's a Loser. I'll def chime in on discussions and post stats and numbers for everyone. Just need to get back on my feet. BOL

Nugs3

Teams "I Like" this weekend

Florida -3.5 Are you kidding me??
VT -9
Minny -2.5

Rhlieu

MAN! FUCK PIT!!!! That is one fucken shitty ass team. I won't ever play PIT this whole season Promise!!! Bunch of cocksuckers!!!

Edr0e

Man I lost big money last night. The money line was just too tempting.

To make it up, I was going to bet on Pitt because -1 seemed too good to be true. Everyone knows they can score. Well good thing I didnt

Instead I put my money on the MLB playoffs. I chose the Chicago White Sox vs. Cleveland game ( White sox Moneyline +155 ) that game was too much to watch. I had to turn off the TV affter 12 innings. Ended up going 13 innings tied up 1-1, game ended 3-2.

Rhlieu

I don't know shit about baseball, but smart move you pass on PIT and went with baseball. i called a couple of good games, buidling up to tonight. I was gonna cash the cow in. Oh wells, lucky i didn't use my enter weekly paycheck on this one. Sorry guys

Rhlieu

Alright here are my SAT college picks:

1unit each

MICH ST - 6.0
PENN ST +3.5
FL - 3.0
ND + 3.0

GL GL GL

Edr0e

im going with texas (-15) vs. missouri.


Thinking about the USC game... depending on how I do with texas.

Edr0e

Texas

also bet on the mich st -4.5 amazing game


So ive got USC on the spread, as well as Florida -3


Good luck everyone.

Rhlieu

Edroe: Ouch, they tease you with Texas, and killed you with the rest. After watching AL killed FL, i guess they are "for real" and shold contend for the SEC this year.


Anybody with any inslight with Pro tomorrow???

Edr0e

baaad day.


Made all my money back on the cal vs arizona game. I have a personal hatred for arizona teams against cali teams

Rhlieu

its NFL sunday, and here are my picks:

WASHINGTON -1 (.5 unit)

ARZ -2.5 (.5 unit)

Shying a way a bit, i hope you guys have better luck then me for the week! GL

slayer202

i like pats -4, under 48

Edr0e

Here are my picks today for the 1pm games


Indianapolis (-7point spread) -115 [Colts vs. Titans]
Tampa Bay (-6.5 spread) -120 [Lions vs. Bucs]
Pats (-4) [Patroits vs. Chargers]

GL everyone hope this week is better then the last 2.

Nugs3

GL today everyone.....didn't post the last few days because of the jinx. Did ok Sat but lost a huge chunk last night on Boise. I have 6 games in the NFL pending all DOGS today except for NO.

slayer202

well i got dominated on the pats game. won some back on colts, put that money on chiefs and hopefully they will hang on and ill just be down a tiny bit on the day

Nugs3

Playing the 49ers and the over tonight. See a lot of points tonight in Mexico.

Rhlieu

Damn 2-0, and i am up a fucken bill. Just my luck , i hope you guys fared better today

Edr0e

49ers Once again they shafted me, they beat st. louis and then they lose to the cards without kurt warner.


Tonights game ... 0-3 packers going to win?

chinoz

haven't even gotten a chance to post anything lately...

lean towards Carolina at this point.. if it hits -7 i'm on it..

chinoz

I was on the Skins too.. on a 4 team parlay..

they almost blew it with the int late in the 4th.. good thing those fockers came thru

Rhlieu

chinoz: so did you hit the par 4???

MNF is kinda a funny game tonight. This game is just like the PIT game that i bombed on. My gut is telling me, GB isn't that bad, and hell its Farve who is QB, and that dude is fucken magic sometimes. An 0-3 team, that trully isn't that bad, and is +7.5, seems to good. I know a lot of people are going to jump on GB tonight, and of course why not? CAR is not a team that is known to blow anybody out of the waters, hell they found a way to fuck it up agasist MIA last week. So my lean is with you bro, if i can get -7, i am on CAR. GL all

chinoz

yeah hit the 4 teamer.. 40 for 460 something..

I always lean towards the home team for MNF.. Caro should be able to run all night against that defense.

at pinnacle you can buy down to -7 for -113.. might just do that but going to wait it out..

Nugs3

Over:
72.19%

Under:
27.81%

Might fade the public and hit the under tonight. they love the over on MNF

Also lean to Car depending on what my local gives out.

Sides are about even at 51/49%

mc222

Guess its a little late now - but FYI - The Eagles cover more then any team in the NFL when not a fav...

Nugs3

scrathing CAR and under. Rhileu I'm tailing my boys on SAS. All my winnings + 2units

BOL