We're in recovery.
03-14-2009, 02:00 PM
#1
We're in recovery.
I'm going to go out on a limb and say that the economy is now in recovery. I'm going to ignore public sentiment, financial experts, and all technical analysis. I am going to rely on a very simple economic indicator that I have spotted recently.
My junk mail is increasing.
Whether you agree or not, whether I'm right or not, I just wanted to just put that out there and see where we all are in a few months.
My junk mail is increasing.
Whether you agree or not, whether I'm right or not, I just wanted to just put that out there and see where we all are in a few months.
03-14-2009, 02:08 PM
#2
Registered but harmless
Join Date: Aug 2005
Location: Los Angeles, CA
Age: 59
Posts: 14,845
Received 1,106 Likes
on
764 Posts
Some places that did not advertise before are sending out discount coupons, particularly mid-price restaurants which are getting hurt by economic circumstances, so that may have increased the junk mail.
FWIW, I hope you're right-- stocks we own don't have much more room to drop.
03-15-2009, 04:44 PM
#5
99 TL, 06 E350
LOL...most economists say this is just a quick shot up before we start going down further. Nothing has been improving yet the markets go up. They went up on news that Citi MAY have got a profit. Emphasis on "MAY".
03-15-2009, 07:56 PM
#6
Moderator Alumnus
Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke suggested in a taped interview on Sunday that the U.S. recession could last most of the year and said the biggest risk was that the political will needed to fix the fractured financial system could be lacking.
"This (economic) decline will begin to moderate and we'll begin to see a leveling off," Bernanke said when pressed during an interview on the CBS program "60 Minutes" about whether he sees the recession ending this year.
"We won't be back to full employment. But we will, I hope, see the end of these declines that have been so strong in a last couple of quarters," he said.
Bernanke told the U.S. Congress in January that the Fed believes there is a reasonable prospect the recession that took hold in December 2007 will end this year and that 2010 will be a year of recovery.
http://www.reuters.com/article/newsO...52E22520090315
"This (economic) decline will begin to moderate and we'll begin to see a leveling off," Bernanke said when pressed during an interview on the CBS program "60 Minutes" about whether he sees the recession ending this year.
"We won't be back to full employment. But we will, I hope, see the end of these declines that have been so strong in a last couple of quarters," he said.
Bernanke told the U.S. Congress in January that the Fed believes there is a reasonable prospect the recession that took hold in December 2007 will end this year and that 2010 will be a year of recovery.
http://www.reuters.com/article/newsO...52E22520090315
Trending Topics
03-15-2009, 09:03 PM
#8
Drifting
Last week was nothing more than a bear market rally. This rally may last a few more weeks, but it too will come to an end. Junk mail is a poor forward indicator of the economy. Job postings would be a much stronger forward indicator or possibly a decline in the unemployment rate for a couple of months.
Just watch and maybe revisit this thread in August and see if I'm right or wrong. The DOW is currently trading at 7223,98 and will hit resistance at 7550 on this uptrend. From there I project a downtrend possibly as low as 5000. Yes, I'm short the DOW and sleeping very well at night.
Just watch and maybe revisit this thread in August and see if I'm right or wrong. The DOW is currently trading at 7223,98 and will hit resistance at 7550 on this uptrend. From there I project a downtrend possibly as low as 5000. Yes, I'm short the DOW and sleeping very well at night.
03-16-2009, 10:42 AM
#11
Senior Moderator
I think I get less junk mail these days. Definitely less catalogs through the mail.
I'm psychic
03-16-2009, 11:27 AM
#13
'05 TSX 6MT
Join Date: Mar 2006
Posts: 623
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
Reading Bernanke's transcript from last night's 60 minutes reveals that 2010 will be less bad than 2009, which has been written off by everybody. Less bad is not recovery, I hope recovery will be underway in 2012.
03-16-2009, 12:22 PM
#16
The sizzle in the Steak
We are still in a down market.
03-16-2009, 12:37 PM
#17
Bagel Bomber
03-16-2009, 12:45 PM
#18
you are using your junk mail as an indicator for the entire nationwide economic system???
lol!!!
hmm, my bowel movement today was loose and stinkier than usual, we must be in recovery....
lol!!!
hmm, my bowel movement today was loose and stinkier than usual, we must be in recovery....
03-16-2009, 12:47 PM
#19
03 TL-S
Join Date: Nov 2006
Location: SWFL
Age: 39
Posts: 178
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
03-16-2009, 12:56 PM
#20
Sorry to hear about your runny, smelly shit. Hope you feel better soon.
03-16-2009, 02:27 PM
#21
Team Owner
03-17-2009, 07:29 PM
#23
I feel the need...
Bernanke Says ‘Biggest Risk’ Is Shortage of ‘Political Will’
Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said the biggest risk to an economic recovery is a shortage of “political will,” using his first televised interview since taking office to stress the need to revive U.S. banking.
“The biggest risk is that, you know, we don’t have the political will,” Bernanke said in a taped interview on CBS Corp.’s “60 Minutes” program that aired yesterday. “Recovery is not going to happen until the financial markets and the banks are stabilized,” and the government’s plan is “going to take some patience. It’s going to take some support,” he said.
Bernanke’s comments signal he is prepared for criticism from lawmakers over any request for more aid to beleaguered financial companies, including additions to the $700 billion Troubled Asset Relief Program. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner said this month the U.S. bank-rescue plan may need another infusion of taxpayer money.....
“The biggest risk is that, you know, we don’t have the political will,” Bernanke said in a taped interview on CBS Corp.’s “60 Minutes” program that aired yesterday. “Recovery is not going to happen until the financial markets and the banks are stabilized,” and the government’s plan is “going to take some patience. It’s going to take some support,” he said.
Bernanke’s comments signal he is prepared for criticism from lawmakers over any request for more aid to beleaguered financial companies, including additions to the $700 billion Troubled Asset Relief Program. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner said this month the U.S. bank-rescue plan may need another infusion of taxpayer money.....
03-18-2009, 06:48 PM
#24
2013 RL or bust
Join Date: Nov 2007
Location: Titletown, MA
Age: 39
Posts: 830
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
I made a 20% profit in Bank of America (BAC) today.. I thought I was a little behind in jumping into the banking sector, but I see the banks stocks to still soar a little bit more.
03-18-2009, 08:34 PM
#25
I feel the need...
Seinfeld Stock Rally Is Built on Empty Chatter
This may end up being the Seinfeld rally. After all, the stock market’s recent rise seems to be based on nothing, aside from empty chatter.
Over the past week or so, the president and his minions, members of Congress, and a host of bank chief executives have made a concerted effort to spin the market. The message has been clear: It’s time to get on board with Team America where the glasses and bank balance sheets are officially half full.
That is working some temporary magic. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index is up almost 14 percent from early last week. The KBW Bank Index, meanwhile, leapt about 40 percent.
For all that, investors should be on guard. While hot air got markets off the ground, it isn’t enough to sustain them. Nor is it likely that any rally, even if recent lows were a bottom, will lead to the kind of V-shaped recovery some investors still dream is possible.....
Over the past week or so, the president and his minions, members of Congress, and a host of bank chief executives have made a concerted effort to spin the market. The message has been clear: It’s time to get on board with Team America where the glasses and bank balance sheets are officially half full.
That is working some temporary magic. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index is up almost 14 percent from early last week. The KBW Bank Index, meanwhile, leapt about 40 percent.
For all that, investors should be on guard. While hot air got markets off the ground, it isn’t enough to sustain them. Nor is it likely that any rally, even if recent lows were a bottom, will lead to the kind of V-shaped recovery some investors still dream is possible.....
Never fear, Uncle Ben and his amazing printing press are here...
03-18-2009, 09:25 PM
#26
Bagel Bomber
03-19-2009, 10:59 AM
#27
Iro Ridg .308
Bear market bounce. That's all. All charts are showing further downward trend. You guys that are throwing your money away trading blindly without L2, please write me a check for $500 since you're handing it out.
03-19-2009, 04:57 PM
#28
Moderator Alumnus
A “black hole” in the US commercial property market is set to put further pressure on troubled banks, the head of leading private equity firm Apollo Management has warned.
Leon Black, founder of the firm, said the extra costs of cleaning up the US banking industry could total as much as $2,000bn, putting further strain on the economy. He said the woes of the commercial property had not yet been reflected fully on bank balance sheets.
You have the black hole of commercial real estate and that hasn’t happened yet,” said Mr Black in a wide-ranging interview on FT.com.
“There you are sitting with $4 trillion of debt and you know not all of it’s bad but a lot of it is diminished and that really hasn’t yet been addressed.”
He warned it would be 12 to 18 months before there are lasting signs of US economic recovery.
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/19a4e968-1...0779fd2ac.html
Leon Black, founder of the firm, said the extra costs of cleaning up the US banking industry could total as much as $2,000bn, putting further strain on the economy. He said the woes of the commercial property had not yet been reflected fully on bank balance sheets.
You have the black hole of commercial real estate and that hasn’t happened yet,” said Mr Black in a wide-ranging interview on FT.com.
“There you are sitting with $4 trillion of debt and you know not all of it’s bad but a lot of it is diminished and that really hasn’t yet been addressed.”
He warned it would be 12 to 18 months before there are lasting signs of US economic recovery.
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/19a4e968-1...0779fd2ac.html
03-20-2009, 12:28 PM
#29
'05 TSX 6MT
Join Date: Mar 2006
Posts: 623
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
^ Yup, commercial real estate is a bigger disaster than residential. Banks are holding oodles of paper that did not get securitized.
The truth of com re does not start to come out till 2011. Think CBRE announced profit was down 90% in 2008, and 2009 is much worse
The truth of com re does not start to come out till 2011. Think CBRE announced profit was down 90% in 2008, and 2009 is much worse
03-20-2009, 08:54 PM
#30
Drifting
Looks like the 7550 resistance level held pretty well with the DOW peaking at 7571.( I will give a support or resistance a 3% variance which would be 7776 to be meaningful in my trading strategy.)
I noticed the DJIA has already reverted to a downtrend using a Point & Figure chart. Next support level is 7200 and then to 7650 from there. I will probably be buying DXD to short and profit from this downtrend next week.
Wednesday's FED announcement of buying T-Bonds was not good news despite the rally it caused. That's going to cause inflation and make commodities like oil and gold more expensive. It's no wonder Thursday and Friday were down. Dow is now at 7278.98- only 54 points higher than last week's close.
I noticed the DJIA has already reverted to a downtrend using a Point & Figure chart. Next support level is 7200 and then to 7650 from there. I will probably be buying DXD to short and profit from this downtrend next week.
Wednesday's FED announcement of buying T-Bonds was not good news despite the rally it caused. That's going to cause inflation and make commodities like oil and gold more expensive. It's no wonder Thursday and Friday were down. Dow is now at 7278.98- only 54 points higher than last week's close.
03-24-2009, 12:07 PM
#31
Senior Moderator
03-27-2009, 07:29 AM
#32
2013 RL or bust
Join Date: Nov 2007
Location: Titletown, MA
Age: 39
Posts: 830
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
I'm almost half in at this point.. I actually would prefer the market to trend down a bit so I can pick up some of my favorite stocks on the cheap and sell what I got now.
03-30-2009, 05:22 AM
#35
Iro Ridg .308
Looking to see what happens over the next few days - couple weeks for confirmation to see if top trend lines are broken through and if so, need to see how much longer it runs for. If the top trend resistance lines break, then more likely June for new lows IMO.
In the meantime, keep this graph in mind and watch the bond markets & baltic dry index closely
Definitely money to be made on these bounces but there is a hell of a lot of manipulation going on on a big-big scale. Huge short on Gold to the tune of 1.2M+ ounces 2 days after Big-Ben's decision to inject another 1 Trillion to buy up Treasuries & MBS. That makes absolutely no sense.
Also need to see what comes about from the G20 meeting. If it's all talk and these guys can't coordinate, I feel we are going to see more nations taking the protectionist state and protecting what's left of their own economies and/or you'll have more countries re-aligning themselves with one another (eg. China & Russia, etc.).
* China is already making moves by negotiating (and have already negotiated...) with other countries on Yuan swaps thus removing a portion of those countries' reserves away from USD
* London is starting to struggle to sell all of their bonds as indicated from their recent auction and as a result have begun running the sterling presses to monetize their debt.
* There's good reason why Bernanke had to make the decision to monetize US Debt and I think it's because the writing is on the wall that China is backing off on loaning any more / as much as the idiots in Washington would like to see. China also moving away from long-term Treasuries which is key.
* Germany isn't following blindly the same road the US & England are going down with a spend-spend-spend mentality.
*
In the meantime, keep this graph in mind and watch the bond markets & baltic dry index closely
Definitely money to be made on these bounces but there is a hell of a lot of manipulation going on on a big-big scale. Huge short on Gold to the tune of 1.2M+ ounces 2 days after Big-Ben's decision to inject another 1 Trillion to buy up Treasuries & MBS. That makes absolutely no sense.
Also need to see what comes about from the G20 meeting. If it's all talk and these guys can't coordinate, I feel we are going to see more nations taking the protectionist state and protecting what's left of their own economies and/or you'll have more countries re-aligning themselves with one another (eg. China & Russia, etc.).
* China is already making moves by negotiating (and have already negotiated...) with other countries on Yuan swaps thus removing a portion of those countries' reserves away from USD
* London is starting to struggle to sell all of their bonds as indicated from their recent auction and as a result have begun running the sterling presses to monetize their debt.
* There's good reason why Bernanke had to make the decision to monetize US Debt and I think it's because the writing is on the wall that China is backing off on loaning any more / as much as the idiots in Washington would like to see. China also moving away from long-term Treasuries which is key.
* Germany isn't following blindly the same road the US & England are going down with a spend-spend-spend mentality.
*
03-30-2009, 01:22 PM
#37
2013 RL or bust
Join Date: Nov 2007
Location: Titletown, MA
Age: 39
Posts: 830
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
Glad I sold off some stocks when we were at 7900, and collected some profit..
Now, I'm buying back up some of the same stocks.. And others, that have finally come down a bit, like Apple.
Now, I'm buying back up some of the same stocks.. And others, that have finally come down a bit, like Apple.
03-30-2009, 08:41 PM
#38
Team Owner
I made some nice coin on C and AIG run-ups. I bought back in on Friday. I hope this GM news doesn't spark a 1000 point sell off. Another big down day like today and I'll have to sell the crap I bought on Friday to protect my previous profit.
04-01-2009, 12:15 PM
#39
Moderator Alumnus
How could this be, I got spam in my inbox this morning...Wednesday's broad mix of housing, labor and factory reports gave Wall Street little hope that the recession is nearing an end.
The ADP said private-sector employers cut 742,000 jobs in March, greater than the 706,000 revised cut in February. The reading was well ahead of Wall Street's expected forecast of 655,000. The ADP National Employment is produced by Automatic Data Processing, in partnership with Macroeconomic Advisers.
According to the report, the labor market's weakness was distributed across all major components tracked by ADP, which suggests the recession has gone way beyond the housing crisis that propelled it.
"I don't expect this to get better for several more months," said Joel Prakken, chairman of Macroeconomic Advisers. "Even with the help of the stimulus, we're not going to see an abatement of these declines until the middle of the year, and it won't be until the end of the year when we see signs of employment stabilizing."
http://www.forbes.com/2009/04/01/adp...s-housing.html
04-01-2009, 01:29 PM
#40
* China is already making moves by negotiating (and have already negotiated...) with other countries on Yuan swaps thus removing a portion of those countries' reserves away from USD
* There's good reason why Bernanke had to make the decision to monetize US Debt and I think it's because the writing is on the wall that China is backing off on loaning any more / as much as the idiots in Washington would like to see. China also moving away from long-term Treasuries which is key.
* There's good reason why Bernanke had to make the decision to monetize US Debt and I think it's because the writing is on the wall that China is backing off on loaning any more / as much as the idiots in Washington would like to see. China also moving away from long-term Treasuries which is key.