The "official" housing recovery thread...
05-14-2009, 06:13 PM
#161
^ well they wouldn't compare houses you are looking at to each other... so it wouldn't matter how far apart they are.
Typically they look at comparibles in the neighborhood... so if you like a house, they would look at similar homes (size, lot size, features, etc), then see what they sold for over the last 12, 6, and 3 months. Sometimes they'll do 1 month also. Then you can look at that report and see if the house you're looking at is priced too high, too low, or just right... and make an educated offer from there.
Also keep in mind these reports are a guide. A house is really worth what someone is willing to pay for it.
Typically they look at comparibles in the neighborhood... so if you like a house, they would look at similar homes (size, lot size, features, etc), then see what they sold for over the last 12, 6, and 3 months. Sometimes they'll do 1 month also. Then you can look at that report and see if the house you're looking at is priced too high, too low, or just right... and make an educated offer from there.
Also keep in mind these reports are a guide. A house is really worth what someone is willing to pay for it.
05-20-2009, 07:39 PM
#162
I feel the need...
Thread Starter
U.S. Economy: April Housing Starts Drop on Apartments
.....While the homebuilding slump has brought the supply of new properties below the rate households are being created, surging unemployment will temper the likely rebound, analysts said. The plunge in apartments and condominiums also reinforces concern about the impact of the credit crunch on commercial real estate.....
In the bold, one of the ironies of the current environment is that it's the best time in a generation for first time homebuyers to buy. You get $8,000 Obamabucks, you get cheap financing courtesy of your kindly Central Banker and you get to pick off desperate sellers and foreclosures.
Just like the automotive sales running below the scrap rate, eventually consumers will buy houses and cars.
Get your cheap financing while you can, if you think you can't afford a house now when 30yr fixed rate mortgages are at 5%, do the math and see how much less house you can afford when 30yr fixed is at 8% (which was not that long ago).
05-28-2009, 06:40 PM
#163
I feel the need...
Thread Starter
Is Your Home A Good Investment?
As assets, homes provide only modest annual returns in the long run.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB124336746233955539.html
There's the usual talk about what the latest Case-Shiller house price data mean for the next short term move in the real estate market. Has housing bottomed? If not, has the rate of decline slowed? And when will we see an upturn?
Human nature likes the short term. Which is why so little attention is paid to something that is probably more important, if less urgent: What the latest data show about the long-term of the real estate market.
And it's startling.....
Human nature likes the short term. Which is why so little attention is paid to something that is probably more important, if less urgent: What the latest data show about the long-term of the real estate market.
And it's startling.....
05-28-2009, 07:21 PM
#164
I feel the need...
Thread Starter
Mortgage-Bond Yields Jump, Jeopardizing Fed’s Housing Effort
Yields on Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac mortgage bonds rose for a fourth day, after exceeding for the first time yesterday their levels before the Federal Reserve announced it would expand purchases to drive down interest rates on new loans.
Yields on Washington-based Fannie Mae’s current-coupon 30- year fixed-rate mortgage bonds climbed to 4.55 percent as of 3:15 p.m. in New York, the highest since Dec. 5 and up from 3.94 percent on May 20, data compiled by Bloomberg show.
Rising mortgage-bond yields, driven higher in part by climbing Treasury rates, mean the Fed now “faces a challenge to its ability to sustain low mortgage rates,” according to Jeffrey Rosenberg at Bank of America Corp. The central bank, seeking to use lower home-loan rates to stem the housing slump and bolster consumers, said March 18 it would increase its planned purchases of so-called agency mortgage bonds by $750 billion, to as much as $1.25 trillion, and start buying government notes.
“Market participants may be asking themselves the same question as Scorpio in ‘Dirty Harry’: ‘Do I feel lucky?’ ” Rosenberg, the bank’s head of credit strategy research in New York, wrote in a report yesterday, referring to a character in the 1971 Clint Eastwood film who may be shot.....
Yields on Washington-based Fannie Mae’s current-coupon 30- year fixed-rate mortgage bonds climbed to 4.55 percent as of 3:15 p.m. in New York, the highest since Dec. 5 and up from 3.94 percent on May 20, data compiled by Bloomberg show.
Rising mortgage-bond yields, driven higher in part by climbing Treasury rates, mean the Fed now “faces a challenge to its ability to sustain low mortgage rates,” according to Jeffrey Rosenberg at Bank of America Corp. The central bank, seeking to use lower home-loan rates to stem the housing slump and bolster consumers, said March 18 it would increase its planned purchases of so-called agency mortgage bonds by $750 billion, to as much as $1.25 trillion, and start buying government notes.
“Market participants may be asking themselves the same question as Scorpio in ‘Dirty Harry’: ‘Do I feel lucky?’ ” Rosenberg, the bank’s head of credit strategy research in New York, wrote in a report yesterday, referring to a character in the 1971 Clint Eastwood film who may be shot.....
05-29-2009, 04:33 PM
#165
I feel the need...
Thread Starter
Bernanke Bid to Lift Housing Scuttled by Rising Rates
Kyle McGee went to his mortgage broker’s office yesterday hoping to refinance and save about $200 a month. He walked away empty-handed.
McGee was expecting a rate of 4.7 percent; the broker offered him 5.375 percent. The average 30-year fixed-mortgage rose to 5.27 percent as of yesterday, according to Bankrate.com.
“We feel like we might have missed the boat,” said McGee, 37, an adjunct professor of social work at Hunter College School of Social Work in Manhattan.
Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke’s efforts to bring down borrowing costs to revive the housing market and help the economy are stalling. Mortgage rates are almost back to where they were in March before the 30-year rate fell to a record and sparked a refinancing boom. Mortgage delinquencies rose to a record 9.12 percent of U.S. home loans and house prices dropped the most on record in the first quarter, industry reports show.
“Housing is not going to be the engine to get us out of this recession,” said Robert Eisenbeis, chief monetary economist for Vineland, New Jersey-based Cumberland Advisors Inc., and former research director at the Federal Reserve Bank in Atlanta. “They’ve squeezed a lemon and now they’re trying to squeeze some more, but you can only get so much juice out of a lemon.....”
McGee was expecting a rate of 4.7 percent; the broker offered him 5.375 percent. The average 30-year fixed-mortgage rose to 5.27 percent as of yesterday, according to Bankrate.com.
“We feel like we might have missed the boat,” said McGee, 37, an adjunct professor of social work at Hunter College School of Social Work in Manhattan.
Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke’s efforts to bring down borrowing costs to revive the housing market and help the economy are stalling. Mortgage rates are almost back to where they were in March before the 30-year rate fell to a record and sparked a refinancing boom. Mortgage delinquencies rose to a record 9.12 percent of U.S. home loans and house prices dropped the most on record in the first quarter, industry reports show.
“Housing is not going to be the engine to get us out of this recession,” said Robert Eisenbeis, chief monetary economist for Vineland, New Jersey-based Cumberland Advisors Inc., and former research director at the Federal Reserve Bank in Atlanta. “They’ve squeezed a lemon and now they’re trying to squeeze some more, but you can only get so much juice out of a lemon.....”
06-03-2009, 06:33 PM
#166
I feel the need...
Thread Starter
Pending U.S. Home Resales Surge the Most Since 2001
The number of Americans signing contracts to buy previously owned homes climbed 6.7 percent in April, more than forecast and the fourth increase in five months, as lower prices attracted buyers.
The gain in the index of signed purchase agreements, or pending home resales, was the biggest in more than seven years and followed a 3.2 percent increase in March, the National Association of Realtors said today in Washington. The April reading was up 3.2 percent from the same month a year earlier.
Foreclosure-driven declines in values and tax incentives may put more homes within reach of first-time buyers, helping to stabilize the market and stemming the biggest drag on economic growth. Still, with mortgage rates no longer dropping and unemployment climbing, the real-estate industry may flounder near recent lows for months before a sustained recovery.
“The market is crawling back and maybe the turn is here,” said Ken Mayland, president of ClearView Economics LLC in Pepper Pike, Ohio, whose projected 4 percent gain was the highest in a Bloomberg survey. “Foreclosures are moving through the system and that is a fundamental part of the process of restoring equilibrium in the housing market.....”
The gain in the index of signed purchase agreements, or pending home resales, was the biggest in more than seven years and followed a 3.2 percent increase in March, the National Association of Realtors said today in Washington. The April reading was up 3.2 percent from the same month a year earlier.
Foreclosure-driven declines in values and tax incentives may put more homes within reach of first-time buyers, helping to stabilize the market and stemming the biggest drag on economic growth. Still, with mortgage rates no longer dropping and unemployment climbing, the real-estate industry may flounder near recent lows for months before a sustained recovery.
“The market is crawling back and maybe the turn is here,” said Ken Mayland, president of ClearView Economics LLC in Pepper Pike, Ohio, whose projected 4 percent gain was the highest in a Bloomberg survey. “Foreclosures are moving through the system and that is a fundamental part of the process of restoring equilibrium in the housing market.....”
06-10-2009, 03:28 PM
#167
It's funny... I read an article today from some local economist who said that they expect the real estate market around here to increase 3.1% annually, beginning with 2009.
What I don't understand is this... if prices are down say 20%... how can they be increasing 3.1% annually. The way I see it... if 2009 truly shows 3.1% gains, then we are only down 16.9%, not up 3.1%.
If we are comparing year to year then I get it... but it's being presented as 3.1% annual growth... which is false.
What I don't understand is this... if prices are down say 20%... how can they be increasing 3.1% annually. The way I see it... if 2009 truly shows 3.1% gains, then we are only down 16.9%, not up 3.1%.
If we are comparing year to year then I get it... but it's being presented as 3.1% annual growth... which is false.
06-24-2009, 04:45 PM
#168
I feel the need...
Thread Starter
Mortgage Bombs, Quiet for Now, Await Next Boom
Here’s a way to help head off the next financial crisis: Make sure borrowers have some of their own money on the line.
That’s a no-brainer. Not, though, for Congress and regulators. They squandered a chance after the early 1990s housing slump to require borrowers to put up a decent amount of their own cash when getting a mortgage.
That failure, which paved the way for no-money-down loans and worse, shows how reform efforts can wither in the face of bank lobbying. And, as Congress considers President Barack Obama’s grand regulatory overhaul, focused largely on too-big- to-fail financial institutions, it’s also a reminder that simple solutions are sometimes the best.
The reason for requiring borrowers to put their own money down: they will be less likely to roll the dice on risky loans or jump into speculative plays. That should defuse the temptation for bankers to create mortgage bombs during booms.....
That’s a no-brainer. Not, though, for Congress and regulators. They squandered a chance after the early 1990s housing slump to require borrowers to put up a decent amount of their own cash when getting a mortgage.
That failure, which paved the way for no-money-down loans and worse, shows how reform efforts can wither in the face of bank lobbying. And, as Congress considers President Barack Obama’s grand regulatory overhaul, focused largely on too-big- to-fail financial institutions, it’s also a reminder that simple solutions are sometimes the best.
The reason for requiring borrowers to put their own money down: they will be less likely to roll the dice on risky loans or jump into speculative plays. That should defuse the temptation for bankers to create mortgage bombs during booms.....
06-24-2009, 04:51 PM
#169
I feel the need...
Thread Starter
Home-Price Recovery May Be Undermined by Appraisals
There may be another culprit scuttling a U.S. housing recovery: low home appraisals.
Flawed appraisals are derailing real estate sales and depressing values across the U.S., the National Association of Realtors said yesterday as it reported that existing home prices declined 17 percent in May from a year earlier.
“It’s pointing to thousands of delayed or canceled transactions,” Lawrence Yun, chief economist of the Chicago- based Realtors group, said in an interview. “We’ve had a massive inundation from members saying this is a big problem.”
Appraisal rules that went into effect on May 1 require lenders that sell loans to Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac to set up a firewall between appraisers and loan officers to prevent improper influence. The rules are the result of an agreement between the mortgage buyers and New York Attorney General Andrew Cuomo, who said an investigation found appraisers inflated values under pressure from lenders.
The agreement mandates that banks order a second appraisal on 10 percent of the loans they sell to Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, and warns against accepting the higher of any two valuations. The guidelines have led to more conservative valuations by many appraisers and a “chill” in lending, according to John Brennan, research director at the Appraisal Foundation, a Washington-based trade group. A low appraisal is one that comes in under the price a prospective buyer has agreed to pay for a property.
‘Unintended Consequences’
“Sometimes policy can lead to unintended consequences,” Yun said.....
Flawed appraisals are derailing real estate sales and depressing values across the U.S., the National Association of Realtors said yesterday as it reported that existing home prices declined 17 percent in May from a year earlier.
“It’s pointing to thousands of delayed or canceled transactions,” Lawrence Yun, chief economist of the Chicago- based Realtors group, said in an interview. “We’ve had a massive inundation from members saying this is a big problem.”
Appraisal rules that went into effect on May 1 require lenders that sell loans to Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac to set up a firewall between appraisers and loan officers to prevent improper influence. The rules are the result of an agreement between the mortgage buyers and New York Attorney General Andrew Cuomo, who said an investigation found appraisers inflated values under pressure from lenders.
The agreement mandates that banks order a second appraisal on 10 percent of the loans they sell to Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, and warns against accepting the higher of any two valuations. The guidelines have led to more conservative valuations by many appraisers and a “chill” in lending, according to John Brennan, research director at the Appraisal Foundation, a Washington-based trade group. A low appraisal is one that comes in under the price a prospective buyer has agreed to pay for a property.
‘Unintended Consequences’
“Sometimes policy can lead to unintended consequences,” Yun said.....
06-25-2009, 07:08 AM
#170
Team Owner
Oh God I remember that. The appraiser HAD to get the value to make a loan work. I'd be underwriting some loans and would get calls from desperate appraisers trying to justify their use of a comparable that was nothing like the subject property nor nearby. Too much pressure from the brokers or else no repeat business.
06-29-2009, 07:35 PM
#171
I feel the need...
Thread Starter
Housing in Peril as Obama Fails to Get Financing Breakthrough
Driving through Riverside, California, Bruce Norris pointed to a half-dozen empty houses with “For Sale” signs stuck in untended lawns that he said investors might buy if banks would just extend some credit.
“People today look at us as the enemy,” said Norris, 57, head of Riverside-based Norris Group, which purchases and renovates homes to rent or sell. “That’s a big problem for housing because if we can’t get the financing we need, a lot of these properties are going to sit vacant.”
Four months after President Barack Obama pledged $275 billion to shore up home sales, the engine that powered every U.S. recovery since 1960 is stalled. Bankers’ reluctance to finance buyers who won’t live in properties is one barrier to a turnaround. Stricter qualifying rules and a rise in the cost of residential loans to 5.42 percent have impeded new mortgage lending, which is at a 13-year low. An inventory of 2.1 million unoccupied houses on the market, created by the fastest foreclosure pace in history, may be a drag on a revival.....
“People today look at us as the enemy,” said Norris, 57, head of Riverside-based Norris Group, which purchases and renovates homes to rent or sell. “That’s a big problem for housing because if we can’t get the financing we need, a lot of these properties are going to sit vacant.”
Four months after President Barack Obama pledged $275 billion to shore up home sales, the engine that powered every U.S. recovery since 1960 is stalled. Bankers’ reluctance to finance buyers who won’t live in properties is one barrier to a turnaround. Stricter qualifying rules and a rise in the cost of residential loans to 5.42 percent have impeded new mortgage lending, which is at a 13-year low. An inventory of 2.1 million unoccupied houses on the market, created by the fastest foreclosure pace in history, may be a drag on a revival.....
07-01-2009, 07:04 PM
#172
Senior Moderator
It's funny... I read an article today from some local economist who said that they expect the real estate market around here to increase 3.1% annually, beginning with 2009.
What I don't understand is this... if prices are down say 20%... how can they be increasing 3.1% annually. The way I see it... if 2009 truly shows 3.1% gains, then we are only down 16.9%, not up 3.1%.
If we are comparing year to year then I get it... but it's being presented as 3.1% annual growth... which is false.
What I don't understand is this... if prices are down say 20%... how can they be increasing 3.1% annually. The way I see it... if 2009 truly shows 3.1% gains, then we are only down 16.9%, not up 3.1%.
If we are comparing year to year then I get it... but it's being presented as 3.1% annual growth... which is false.
People always will turn the numbers which ever way makes their argument seem better
07-01-2009, 07:04 PM
#173
Senior Moderator
09-23-2009, 04:37 PM
#175
I feel the need...
Thread Starter
Housing Risking Relapse Confronts Bernanke Conundrum
The recovering housing market may be heading for a relapse as President Barack Obama and Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke consider ending support for the source of the global financial crisis.
The Obama administration is studying whether to let a first-time home buyers’ tax credit expire as scheduled at the end of November. Bernanke and his Fed colleagues may continue talking this week about how to wind down purchases of mortgage- backed securities, according to Peter Hooper, chief economist at Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. in New York. The two programs have helped stabilize real-estate demand, with new-house sales rising 9.6 percent in July from the prior month, the most since 2005.
Ending these efforts may stifle the housing rebound by depressing sales and pushing up both mortgage-backed bond yields and interest rates on home loans, even in the face of the record-low zero to 0.25 percent short-term rates the Fed has engineered, said economist Thomas Lawler.....
The Obama administration is studying whether to let a first-time home buyers’ tax credit expire as scheduled at the end of November. Bernanke and his Fed colleagues may continue talking this week about how to wind down purchases of mortgage- backed securities, according to Peter Hooper, chief economist at Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. in New York. The two programs have helped stabilize real-estate demand, with new-house sales rising 9.6 percent in July from the prior month, the most since 2005.
Ending these efforts may stifle the housing rebound by depressing sales and pushing up both mortgage-backed bond yields and interest rates on home loans, even in the face of the record-low zero to 0.25 percent short-term rates the Fed has engineered, said economist Thomas Lawler.....
09-24-2009, 12:08 PM
#176
Senior Moderator
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It's more like a house is really worth what the mortgage company is willing to lend.
Case in point, we had our first agreement of sale on our house but when the appraisal came back, the buyers were not approved for financing. They were doing an 80/20 and the mortgage company said they'd have to either come up with more down or we'd have to lower our price. We both did neither, found another buyer, got a favorable appraisal and we sold.
Case in point, we had our first agreement of sale on our house but when the appraisal came back, the buyers were not approved for financing. They were doing an 80/20 and the mortgage company said they'd have to either come up with more down or we'd have to lower our price. We both did neither, found another buyer, got a favorable appraisal and we sold.
09-24-2009, 02:35 PM
#177
Suzuka Master
iTrader: (1)
10-26-2009, 08:20 PM
#178
I feel the need...
Thread Starter
Housing Market Faces Hard Road to Normal, Fed Economist Says
The U.S. housing market faces a “difficult” return to normal because government-sponsored enterprises own or guarantee most mortgage lending while alternative sources have disappeared, said an economist with the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
“Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and Ginnie Mae now own or guarantee an overwhelming share of originations,” bank senior economist John Krainer wrote in a paper released today. “At the same time, non-agency mortgage securitization and loans retained in lender portfolios have largely dried up.”
The paper underscores the challenge that economists at the San Francisco Fed, one of 12 regional Fed banks, believe that the economy faces as it begins to emerge from the worst recession in seven decades. Bank researcher Glenn Rudebusch concluded in another paper this month that the economy is not likely to return to full employment soon even though the recession is “almost certainly” over.....
“Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and Ginnie Mae now own or guarantee an overwhelming share of originations,” bank senior economist John Krainer wrote in a paper released today. “At the same time, non-agency mortgage securitization and loans retained in lender portfolios have largely dried up.”
The paper underscores the challenge that economists at the San Francisco Fed, one of 12 regional Fed banks, believe that the economy faces as it begins to emerge from the worst recession in seven decades. Bank researcher Glenn Rudebusch concluded in another paper this month that the economy is not likely to return to full employment soon even though the recession is “almost certainly” over.....
11-04-2009, 07:06 PM
#179
I feel the need...
Thread Starter
Real Estate Price Plunge Makes U.S. Homeownership Perilous Path
Kajal and Vishal Dharod paid $559,000 in 2006 for a new four-bedroom house built in Rancho Cucamonga, California. Today, it’s worth about $360,000.
“We don’t know how we can come back from a loss like that,” said Kajal Dharod, 29, a first-time homeowner with a $4,200-a-month mortgage. “Buying the house was a mistake.”
American homeownership, once considered a path to wealth, is now leading to disillusionment. Home prices in the last four years have been the most volatile on record, swinging from a gain of 12 percent in 2005 to an estimated 13 percent loss this year, according to the National Association of Realtors. Those gyrations have embittered many property owners and potential buyers, said Nicolas Retsinas, director of Harvard University’s Joint Center for Housing Studies in Cambridge, Massachusetts.
“We always talk about homeownership as being the American dream, but during the last decade people forgot it’s shelter and started thinking of it as a fast way to make or lose money,” said Retsinas. “The quicker we move back to seeing real estate as a place to live, a place to put down roots, the quicker the housing recovery will strengthen.....”
“We don’t know how we can come back from a loss like that,” said Kajal Dharod, 29, a first-time homeowner with a $4,200-a-month mortgage. “Buying the house was a mistake.”
American homeownership, once considered a path to wealth, is now leading to disillusionment. Home prices in the last four years have been the most volatile on record, swinging from a gain of 12 percent in 2005 to an estimated 13 percent loss this year, according to the National Association of Realtors. Those gyrations have embittered many property owners and potential buyers, said Nicolas Retsinas, director of Harvard University’s Joint Center for Housing Studies in Cambridge, Massachusetts.
“We always talk about homeownership as being the American dream, but during the last decade people forgot it’s shelter and started thinking of it as a fast way to make or lose money,” said Retsinas. “The quicker we move back to seeing real estate as a place to live, a place to put down roots, the quicker the housing recovery will strengthen.....”
12-28-2009, 05:06 AM
#180
I feel the need...
Thread Starter
Morgan Stanley Sees 5.5% Note as U.S. Faces Deficits
If Morgan Stanley is right, the best sale of U.S. Treasuries for 2010 may be the short sale.
Yields on benchmark 10-year notes will climb about 40 percent to 5.5 percent, the biggest annual increase since 1999, according to David Greenlaw, chief fixed-income economist at Morgan Stanley in New York. The surge will push interest rates on 30-year fixed mortgages to 7.5 percent to 8 percent, almost the highest in a decade, Greenlaw said.
Investors are demanding higher returns on government debt, boosting rates this month by the most since January, on concern President Barack Obama’s attempt to revive economic growth with record spending will keep the deficit at $1 trillion. Rising borrowing costs risk jeopardizing a recovery from a plunge in the residential mortgage market that led to the worst global recession in six decades.
“When you take these kinds of aggressive policy actions to prevent a depression, you have to clean up after yourself,” Greenlaw said in a telephone interview. “Market signals will ultimately spur some policy action but I’m not naive enough to think it will be a very pleasant environment.....”
Yields on benchmark 10-year notes will climb about 40 percent to 5.5 percent, the biggest annual increase since 1999, according to David Greenlaw, chief fixed-income economist at Morgan Stanley in New York. The surge will push interest rates on 30-year fixed mortgages to 7.5 percent to 8 percent, almost the highest in a decade, Greenlaw said.
Investors are demanding higher returns on government debt, boosting rates this month by the most since January, on concern President Barack Obama’s attempt to revive economic growth with record spending will keep the deficit at $1 trillion. Rising borrowing costs risk jeopardizing a recovery from a plunge in the residential mortgage market that led to the worst global recession in six decades.
“When you take these kinds of aggressive policy actions to prevent a depression, you have to clean up after yourself,” Greenlaw said in a telephone interview. “Market signals will ultimately spur some policy action but I’m not naive enough to think it will be a very pleasant environment.....”
And the reflation begins...
01-20-2010, 07:00 PM
#181
I feel the need...
Thread Starter
FHA Raises Premiums, Down Payments Amid Mortgage Delinquencies
The cost of a government-guaranteed mortgage will be more expensive for U.S. homebuyers as the Federal Housing Administration raises insurance rates and tightens credit-score rules to combat a rise in delinquencies.
The premiums FHA charges to insure mortgages will rise to 2.25 percent from 1.75 percent this year, the agency said in a statement today. Borrowers who have credit scores below 580 will also have to make down payments of at least 10 percent, and allowable seller concessions will be cut by half.
The agency, which guarantees almost one-third of loans used in home purchases, is grappling with a 14 percent delinquency rate after taking on more risk to resuscitate the housing market when private industry sources evaporated. Defaults pushed mortgage insurance reserves to the lowest level in history last fiscal year, prompting the Obama administration to take bolder steps in shoring up the FHA’s finances.....
The premiums FHA charges to insure mortgages will rise to 2.25 percent from 1.75 percent this year, the agency said in a statement today. Borrowers who have credit scores below 580 will also have to make down payments of at least 10 percent, and allowable seller concessions will be cut by half.
The agency, which guarantees almost one-third of loans used in home purchases, is grappling with a 14 percent delinquency rate after taking on more risk to resuscitate the housing market when private industry sources evaporated. Defaults pushed mortgage insurance reserves to the lowest level in history last fiscal year, prompting the Obama administration to take bolder steps in shoring up the FHA’s finances.....
First time homebuyers, if you're still on the fence, get your Obamabucks before Uncle Ben and his amazing printing press runs out of ink and mortgage rates go up...
02-10-2010, 05:09 PM
#182
Moderator Alumnus
One in five housing markets entered a second leg of home price declines in late 2009, after showing price increases for nearly half of last year, according to a report released Wednesday by Zillow.com, a real-estate Web site.
In 29 of the 143 markets tracked by the site -- including Boston, Atlanta and San Diego -- prices flattened or began to decrease again in the second part of last year, after five or more months of consecutive monthly increases, according to the site's fourth quarter real-estate market report.
Home prices in another 29 markets, including Los Angeles and New York, increased each month throughout the fourth quarter. But the rate of increase slowed from November to December in 21 markets, according to the data.
Nationwide, home values fell 5% in the fourth quarter compared with the fourth quarter a year earlier. Values fell 0.5% from the third quarter of 2009.
"While we have seen strong stabilization in home values during 2009, there are clear signs that they will turn more negative in the near-term," said Stan Humphries, Zillow's chief economist, in a news release.
"What we saw in mid-2009 was a brief respite from a larger market correction that has not yet run its course," he said.
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/ear...ces-2010-02-10
In 29 of the 143 markets tracked by the site -- including Boston, Atlanta and San Diego -- prices flattened or began to decrease again in the second part of last year, after five or more months of consecutive monthly increases, according to the site's fourth quarter real-estate market report.
Home prices in another 29 markets, including Los Angeles and New York, increased each month throughout the fourth quarter. But the rate of increase slowed from November to December in 21 markets, according to the data.
Nationwide, home values fell 5% in the fourth quarter compared with the fourth quarter a year earlier. Values fell 0.5% from the third quarter of 2009.
"While we have seen strong stabilization in home values during 2009, there are clear signs that they will turn more negative in the near-term," said Stan Humphries, Zillow's chief economist, in a news release.
"What we saw in mid-2009 was a brief respite from a larger market correction that has not yet run its course," he said.
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/ear...ces-2010-02-10
02-18-2010, 07:04 PM
#183
They just raised rates today after the IMF announced they are selling a few more tons of gold. Things are getting interesting. 
Analogous to the recent stock market rise, I'm thinking there is a concerted effort to hype the public back into a home buying frenzy. Banks are withholding inventory so market prices won't plunge because they have most to lose. This is all leading to a 'Am I gonna miss the bottom' mentality, driving people to buy or invest in haste to get that home stimulus saving while rates are still low.
Earnings are 'recovering' with raised guidance and a few stimulus funded jobs. Meanwhile, we've got quite a few loan resets coming down the pike well into 2012. The feds printing overtime because they're gonna get 10T+ in retirement funds.
Analogous to the recent stock market rise, I'm thinking there is a concerted effort to hype the public back into a home buying frenzy. Banks are withholding inventory so market prices won't plunge because they have most to lose. This is all leading to a 'Am I gonna miss the bottom' mentality, driving people to buy or invest in haste to get that home stimulus saving while rates are still low.
Earnings are 'recovering' with raised guidance and a few stimulus funded jobs. Meanwhile, we've got quite a few loan resets coming down the pike well into 2012. The feds printing overtime because they're gonna get 10T+ in retirement funds.
03-04-2010, 07:04 PM
#184
I feel the need...
Thread Starter
U.S. Economy: Pending Sales of Existing Homes Decline
Fewer Americans than expected signed contracts to purchase previously owned homes in January, indicating the extension of a tax credit is doing little to lure buyers.
The index of purchase agreements, or pending home sales, dropped 7.6 percent after a revised 0.8 percent increase in December, the National Association of Realtors announced in Washington. Other reports today showed factory orders increased and first-time jobless claims declined.
The drop in contract signings adds to evidence the housing market at the center of the worst recession since the 1930s is struggling to rebound after reports last week showed unexpected declines in purchases of new and existing homes. The market may get another blow this month when the Federal Reserve ends planned purchases of mortgage-backed securities.....
The index of purchase agreements, or pending home sales, dropped 7.6 percent after a revised 0.8 percent increase in December, the National Association of Realtors announced in Washington. Other reports today showed factory orders increased and first-time jobless claims declined.
The drop in contract signings adds to evidence the housing market at the center of the worst recession since the 1930s is struggling to rebound after reports last week showed unexpected declines in purchases of new and existing homes. The market may get another blow this month when the Federal Reserve ends planned purchases of mortgage-backed securities.....
03-20-2010, 11:38 AM
#185
Moderator Alumnus
Home values are slowly rising, and interest rates are still at low tide. But some analysts see a hidden reef that could sink the housing market: option-ARM loans.
Option ARMs are adjustable-rate mortgages that give borrowers the option to make minimum payments that don't even cover the interest owed, much less the principal. That unpaid interest gets tacked onto the principal, increasing the size of the loan.
But there's a catch: The optional minimum-payment period usually lasts five or 10 years. Because most of the option-ARM loans were funded from 2005 to 2007, the easy-term periods have started to expire.
In a wave cresting through the coming two years, most of the estimated 900,000 borrowers who have option ARMs will lose their ability to make these teaser payments, according to First American CoreLogic, a Santa Ana real estate research firm.
"Unless option ARMs are restructured proactively, large proportions of them could end in foreclosure, leading to a potential double dip in housing prices in many California markets," said Paul Leonard, director of the Center for Responsible Lending's California office.
http://www.latimes.com/business/la-f...,5095742.story
03-25-2010, 11:57 AM
#186
Moderator Alumnus
The recovery in the housing market is at risk of collapsing.
Home sales are sliding, prices are stalling and foreclosures are rising. And mortgage rates are likely to go up after next week, when the Federal Reserve ends a program that has driven them down.
The trend could threaten the broader economy, economists warn. People whose home equity is stagnant or shrinking are less likely to spend freely.
---
Only a few months ago, the housing market had been showing signs of strength as it recovered from the most painful downturn in decades. Much of the improvement, though, came from government programs that held down mortgage rates and provided tax breaks for buyers. Since the fall, sales have sunk. And the government support is running out.
The latest sour news came Wednesday, when the Commerce Department said sales of new homes fell last month to their lowest point on record. It was the fourth straight drop.
"While bad weather could well have suppressed the February result, it was dismal no matter how one tries to slice and dice it," wrote Joshua Shapiro, chief U.S. economist at MFR Inc.
That news followed a report a day earlier that sales of existing homes fell for the third straight month in February, to their lowest level since July.
To cope with falling demand, the homebuilding industry has slashed the pace of construction. But thousands of foreclosed homes have been dumped on the market at bargain prices. That glut has made it hard for builders to compete.
Prices have followed sales down. The median sales price for previously occupied homes fell to $165,100 in February, down from a peak of $230,300 in July 2006, according to the National Association of Realtors.
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/36014580...s-real_estate/
Home sales are sliding, prices are stalling and foreclosures are rising. And mortgage rates are likely to go up after next week, when the Federal Reserve ends a program that has driven them down.
The trend could threaten the broader economy, economists warn. People whose home equity is stagnant or shrinking are less likely to spend freely.
---
Only a few months ago, the housing market had been showing signs of strength as it recovered from the most painful downturn in decades. Much of the improvement, though, came from government programs that held down mortgage rates and provided tax breaks for buyers. Since the fall, sales have sunk. And the government support is running out.
The latest sour news came Wednesday, when the Commerce Department said sales of new homes fell last month to their lowest point on record. It was the fourth straight drop.
"While bad weather could well have suppressed the February result, it was dismal no matter how one tries to slice and dice it," wrote Joshua Shapiro, chief U.S. economist at MFR Inc.
That news followed a report a day earlier that sales of existing homes fell for the third straight month in February, to their lowest level since July.
To cope with falling demand, the homebuilding industry has slashed the pace of construction. But thousands of foreclosed homes have been dumped on the market at bargain prices. That glut has made it hard for builders to compete.
Prices have followed sales down. The median sales price for previously occupied homes fell to $165,100 in February, down from a peak of $230,300 in July 2006, according to the National Association of Realtors.
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/36014580...s-real_estate/
03-29-2010, 06:55 PM
#187
I feel the need...
Thread Starter
Lower Home Prices Can Fix What Government Can’t
Thud! Four years after the peak of the housing bubble, home sales are slumping... again.
New home sales, which lead the complex of housing indicators, fell to an all-time low of 308,000 in February, the fourth consecutive monthly decline. For existing home sales, it was the third consecutive drop after last year’s tax-credit- driven bounce.
Homebuilder sentiment has rolled over. Housing starts are bumping along the bottom, with new construction too low to accommodate normal growth in households, according to Michael Carliner, a Potomac, Maryland, economic consultant specializing in housing.
Alas, all the Fed’s purchases and all the government’s men can’t put the residential real estate market together again.
Between them, the federal government and central bank can lower mortgage rates, modify mortgages, use their power to get private lenders to modify mortgages, and create incentives to move inventory, such as the first-time homebuyer’s tax credit.
What they can’t do is manufacture enough artificial demand for an asset that was artificially inflated to begin with. Prices will have to fall, which is how supply is allocated in a market economy. (An occasional reminder is in order given the current spend-money-to-save-money mindset.)
The Federal Reserve will complete its purchase of $1.25 trillion agency mortgage-backed securities at the end of this month. Its efforts on our behalf have driven 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rates to half-century lows of sub-5 percent, “which should have been more stimulative than it was,” Carliner says.....
New home sales, which lead the complex of housing indicators, fell to an all-time low of 308,000 in February, the fourth consecutive monthly decline. For existing home sales, it was the third consecutive drop after last year’s tax-credit- driven bounce.
Homebuilder sentiment has rolled over. Housing starts are bumping along the bottom, with new construction too low to accommodate normal growth in households, according to Michael Carliner, a Potomac, Maryland, economic consultant specializing in housing.
Alas, all the Fed’s purchases and all the government’s men can’t put the residential real estate market together again.
Between them, the federal government and central bank can lower mortgage rates, modify mortgages, use their power to get private lenders to modify mortgages, and create incentives to move inventory, such as the first-time homebuyer’s tax credit.
What they can’t do is manufacture enough artificial demand for an asset that was artificially inflated to begin with. Prices will have to fall, which is how supply is allocated in a market economy. (An occasional reminder is in order given the current spend-money-to-save-money mindset.)
The Federal Reserve will complete its purchase of $1.25 trillion agency mortgage-backed securities at the end of this month. Its efforts on our behalf have driven 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rates to half-century lows of sub-5 percent, “which should have been more stimulative than it was,” Carliner says.....
04-06-2010, 05:02 PM
#188
I feel the need...
Thread Starter
Why Your House’s Value (Probably) Won’t Rise
For the fifth month in a row, Standard & Poor’s Case-Shiller Housing Price Index figures for January that came out last week showed essentially flat prices.
It has been 10 months since prices stopped their free fall, and there is a lot to like in price stability — not only relative to prices crashes but also relative to price booms. For years, many American homeowners persuaded themselves that real housing prices should rise year in and year out, but there is no reason to either expect or hope for perpetual price gains.
One reason that people may have come to expect consistent housing price appreciation is that houses are assets, like stocks, and stocks should, on average, appreciate.
People who buy stocks are giving someone else the use of their money. The only way that deal persists is if investors get a decent return on their money, either in the form of hefty dividends or rising stock prices.
Houses are assets, too, but it’s a mistake to expect them to offer a regular rise in price. Houses pay hefty dividends to their owners in the form of living space — that’s the real return on housing investment — and the basic economics of housing doesn’t point to perpetual price growth.
Some pundits look at the ratio between housing prices and income as if that should remain stable, which would mean that prices should at least rise with incomes.....
It has been 10 months since prices stopped their free fall, and there is a lot to like in price stability — not only relative to prices crashes but also relative to price booms. For years, many American homeowners persuaded themselves that real housing prices should rise year in and year out, but there is no reason to either expect or hope for perpetual price gains.
One reason that people may have come to expect consistent housing price appreciation is that houses are assets, like stocks, and stocks should, on average, appreciate.
People who buy stocks are giving someone else the use of their money. The only way that deal persists is if investors get a decent return on their money, either in the form of hefty dividends or rising stock prices.
Houses are assets, too, but it’s a mistake to expect them to offer a regular rise in price. Houses pay hefty dividends to their owners in the form of living space — that’s the real return on housing investment — and the basic economics of housing doesn’t point to perpetual price growth.
Some pundits look at the ratio between housing prices and income as if that should remain stable, which would mean that prices should at least rise with incomes.....
05-24-2010, 07:00 PM
#189
I feel the need...
Thread Starter
FHA Home-Financing Volume Sign of ‘Very Sick System’
May 24 (Bloomberg) -- Loans guaranteed by the Federal Housing Administration, the U.S.-owned mortgage insurer, may be involved in more home-purchase transactions than borrowing financed by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.
FHA lending last quarter may have topped the combined volume of government-supported Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac in a home-lending market that’s still a “government-financed market,” David Stevens, the agency’s head, said today at a conference in New York, citing research by consultant Potomac Partners.
“This is a market purely on life support, sustained by the federal government,” he said at the Mortgage Bankers Association conference. “Having FHA do this much volume is a sign of a very sick system.....”
FHA lending last quarter may have topped the combined volume of government-supported Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac in a home-lending market that’s still a “government-financed market,” David Stevens, the agency’s head, said today at a conference in New York, citing research by consultant Potomac Partners.
“This is a market purely on life support, sustained by the federal government,” he said at the Mortgage Bankers Association conference. “Having FHA do this much volume is a sign of a very sick system.....”
05-25-2010, 12:53 PM
#190
Team Owner
Mortgage Rates at Record Low.
I think I may just have to get into a new 15 year loan.
From BankRate.com
Product Rate +/- Last week
30 yr fixed 4.87% 4.94%
15 yr fixed 4.20% 4.24%
5/1 ARM 3.69% 3.65%
I think I may just have to get into a new 15 year loan.
From BankRate.com
Product Rate +/- Last week
30 yr fixed 4.87% 4.94%
15 yr fixed 4.20% 4.24%
5/1 ARM 3.69% 3.65%
08-06-2010, 06:29 AM
#191
I feel the need...
Thread Starter
Housing Markets That Will Be Strongest by 2014
Home prices should begin an uneven rebound next year, says a forecast compiled for Businessweek.com by Fiserv and Moody's Economy.com
http://www.businessweek.com/lifestyl...082_282258.htm
Where will prices rebound most by state?
http://realestate.yahoo.com/promo/ho...ongest-by-2014
At some point, everything stops falling. Sometimes things hit bottom with a bone-crunching thud and just lie there in a heap. Sometimes they bounce back up at least part of the way. The U.S. housing market is in the latter camp.
While it's unlikely that U.S. home prices will return at any time soon to the highs of the bubble years, some local markets are showing resiliency. Even more encouraging, the forecast in numerous regions across the country is for a healthy recovery by 2014.
While four years may seem too distant to offer many U.S. homeowners much reassurance, the outlook could be worse. Taking into consideration such factors as employment, foreclosure rates, income growth, demographic trends, and construction costs, Moody's Economy.com and Brookfield (Wisc.)-based financial services industry information firm Fiserv (FISV) estimate that by 2014, U.S. home prices will be 7.2 percent above 2010 levels, with the strongest growth in the Pacific Northwest......
While it's unlikely that U.S. home prices will return at any time soon to the highs of the bubble years, some local markets are showing resiliency. Even more encouraging, the forecast in numerous regions across the country is for a healthy recovery by 2014.
While four years may seem too distant to offer many U.S. homeowners much reassurance, the outlook could be worse. Taking into consideration such factors as employment, foreclosure rates, income growth, demographic trends, and construction costs, Moody's Economy.com and Brookfield (Wisc.)-based financial services industry information firm Fiserv (FISV) estimate that by 2014, U.S. home prices will be 7.2 percent above 2010 levels, with the strongest growth in the Pacific Northwest......
Where will prices rebound most by state?
http://realestate.yahoo.com/promo/ho...ongest-by-2014
08-23-2010, 08:21 PM
#192
I feel the need...
Thread Starter
Housing Fades as a Means to Build Wealth, Analysts Say
Housing will eventually recover from its great swoon. But many real estate experts now believe that home ownership will never again yield rewards like those enjoyed in the second half of the 20th century, when houses not only provided shelter but also a plump nest egg.
The wealth generated by housing in those decades, particularly on the coasts, did more than assure the owners a comfortable retirement. It powered the economy, paying for the education of children and grandchildren, keeping the cruise ships and golf courses full and the restaurants humming.
More than likely, that era is gone for good.
“There is no iron law that real estate must appreciate,” said Stan Humphries, chief economist for the real estate site Zillow. “All those theories advanced during the boom about why housing is special — that more people are choosing to spend more on housing, that more people are moving to the coasts, that we were running out of usable land — didn’t hold up.”
Instead, Mr. Humphries and other economists say, housing values will only keep up with inflation. A home will return the money an owner puts in each month, but will not multiply the investment.
Dean Baker, co-director of the Center for Economic and Policy Research, estimates that it will take 20 years to recoup the $6 trillion of housing wealth that has been lost since 2005. After adjusting for inflation, values will never catch up.....
The wealth generated by housing in those decades, particularly on the coasts, did more than assure the owners a comfortable retirement. It powered the economy, paying for the education of children and grandchildren, keeping the cruise ships and golf courses full and the restaurants humming.
More than likely, that era is gone for good.
“There is no iron law that real estate must appreciate,” said Stan Humphries, chief economist for the real estate site Zillow. “All those theories advanced during the boom about why housing is special — that more people are choosing to spend more on housing, that more people are moving to the coasts, that we were running out of usable land — didn’t hold up.”
Instead, Mr. Humphries and other economists say, housing values will only keep up with inflation. A home will return the money an owner puts in each month, but will not multiply the investment.
Dean Baker, co-director of the Center for Economic and Policy Research, estimates that it will take 20 years to recoup the $6 trillion of housing wealth that has been lost since 2005. After adjusting for inflation, values will never catch up.....
08-24-2010, 06:35 PM
#194
Team Owner
I'm going to save 8 years and a crap load of interest.I could have gotten a little better rate from a broker. I chose a bank because I've dealt with this individual before and trust him.
08-25-2010, 08:05 AM
#195
Team Owner
Luxury builder Toll swings to a quarterly profit
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/tol...5?siteid=yhoof
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/tol...5?siteid=yhoof
BOSTON (MarketWatch) -- Toll Brothers Inc. said early Wednesday that it swung to fiscal third-quarter profit as the home builder was helped by a tax gain.
For the quarter ended July 31, Toll earned $27.3 million, or 16 cents a share, compared with a loss of $472.3 million, or $2.93 a share, in the year-earlier period. Revenue declined to $454.2 million from $461.4 million.
Toll said the latest quarter's results included a tax benefit of $26.5 million.
On average, analysts surveyed by FactSet Research expected the company to report a loss of 14 cents a share on revenue of $392.9 million.
Shares of Toll rose 2.8% in premarket action.
For the quarter ended July 31, Toll earned $27.3 million, or 16 cents a share, compared with a loss of $472.3 million, or $2.93 a share, in the year-earlier period. Revenue declined to $454.2 million from $461.4 million.
Toll said the latest quarter's results included a tax benefit of $26.5 million.
On average, analysts surveyed by FactSet Research expected the company to report a loss of 14 cents a share on revenue of $392.9 million.
Shares of Toll rose 2.8% in premarket action.
08-25-2010, 10:55 AM
#196
registered pw
Join Date: Aug 2003
Location: south central pa
Age: 49
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Mine appraised much higher than a couple months ago and the paperwork is almost finished. There are a few houses in our neghborhood that are for sale at a pretty good discount. I am hoping i close on the refi before anything really changes.
08-29-2010, 06:43 PM
#197
I feel the need...
Thread Starter
In Defense of Home Ownership
It’s hard to read the headlines and not conclude that becoming a homeowner is a terrible idea.
This week, the National Association of Realtors announced that existing-home sales in July had fallen an astounding 25.5 percent from the previous year. Sure, there was a federal tax credit in place last summer. But with single-family home sales at their lowest level since 1995 and unemployment still stubbornly high, home prices may fall further.
In the meantime, millions of homeowners are still far underwater, and government programs to help them have fallen well short of their goals. More foreclosures are coming, casting a deeper shadow over home prices. So it’s hardly surprising that the conventional wisdom says that home values will never again rise faster than inflation.
But as with stocks and the weather, it is dangerous to assume any certainty in the housing market. And by wallowing too much in the misery of others, people looking for a new place to live run the risk of thinking every home purchase will end in regret, at least financially.
Many still could, if they buy in hard-hit areas where prices could fall further.
But a mortgage is still a form of long-term forced savings, after all. This is more important than ever, since fewer people have access to generous pensions than they did during the last big housing slump. A 401(k) or similar plan is no bargain, either, with its erratic returns and employer matches that come and go as the economic winds shift. Social Security is also likely to be less generous, and Medicare will probably cost more.....
This week, the National Association of Realtors announced that existing-home sales in July had fallen an astounding 25.5 percent from the previous year. Sure, there was a federal tax credit in place last summer. But with single-family home sales at their lowest level since 1995 and unemployment still stubbornly high, home prices may fall further.
In the meantime, millions of homeowners are still far underwater, and government programs to help them have fallen well short of their goals. More foreclosures are coming, casting a deeper shadow over home prices. So it’s hardly surprising that the conventional wisdom says that home values will never again rise faster than inflation.
But as with stocks and the weather, it is dangerous to assume any certainty in the housing market. And by wallowing too much in the misery of others, people looking for a new place to live run the risk of thinking every home purchase will end in regret, at least financially.
Many still could, if they buy in hard-hit areas where prices could fall further.
But a mortgage is still a form of long-term forced savings, after all. This is more important than ever, since fewer people have access to generous pensions than they did during the last big housing slump. A 401(k) or similar plan is no bargain, either, with its erratic returns and employer matches that come and go as the economic winds shift. Social Security is also likely to be less generous, and Medicare will probably cost more.....
08-29-2010, 10:25 PM
#198
Senior Moderator
iTrader: (2)
Join Date: May 2000
Location: where the weather suits my clothes
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The problem is until people stop looking at a home as simply an investment, they will continue to push people to rent.
I love that I'm a homeowner, can make improvements and make my house a home, pride of ownership and all that crap.
I love that I'm a homeowner, can make improvements and make my house a home, pride of ownership and all that crap.
08-30-2010, 07:35 AM
#199
Team Owner
^This. I'm too scared to rent with all the nightmares. I know people who have had to move because the owner foreclosed. Plus a landlady we had was a pain to fix the a/c and the roof had water leaks. Plus rent going up.
08-30-2010, 01:38 PM
#200
Drifting
I agree - a home is only a home, not a financial investment. I love owning because I can do whatever the hell I want to my house. I got sick of living in a white apartment, need some color and paint on the walls.