Market Crash Coming: December 15th
12-03-2010, 01:16 PM
#1
The sizzle in the Steak
Thread Starter
Market Crash Coming: December 15th
Any believers out there?
The deal being that if congress does not extend the Bush tax cuts, that there will be a mass sell-off in the market come 12/15 to avoid the cap gains increase.
hmmmmm
The deal being that if congress does not extend the Bush tax cuts, that there will be a mass sell-off in the market come 12/15 to avoid the cap gains increase.
hmmmmm
12-03-2010, 01:48 PM
#3
The sizzle in the Steak
Thread Starter
^^ back in '87 investors realized their gains at the lower tax rate (before the rate changed from 20% to 28%. Food for thought.
12-03-2010, 09:50 PM
#4
Drifting
^ Yes I have been projecting a sell off in December too. My guess is sell-off might actually happen that last week of January when people are pressed to make a decision on what to do and the volume tends to be lower. Time will tell. Last year we had oscillating weeks the last 3 weeks of the month: down -142 (dow), +191,and -93 so the trend was slightly down and that was without the worries of tax rates on LTGs. I project much higher swings this time with the +290 dow week we just had.
12-03-2010, 10:07 PM
#5
Needs more Lemon Pledge
If there is a sell off, many stocks will be on sale!
12-04-2010, 10:07 AM
#6
Drifting
^ A sell-off could be a good opportunity depending on how low it goes.
The various indice's I follow are all pretty extended even now. We would need an 800 point drop in the DOW just to get to the 200 DAY EMA and a 2000 point drop to test July's low. It would take a 5000 point drop to test the 2009 low set in April.
If interest rates go up, some of these lows are going to get tested at some point and most likely not this month. My guess is we already have seen the 2010 high at 11,4xx for the Dow.
The various indice's I follow are all pretty extended even now. We would need an 800 point drop in the DOW just to get to the 200 DAY EMA and a 2000 point drop to test July's low. It would take a 5000 point drop to test the 2009 low set in April.
If interest rates go up, some of these lows are going to get tested at some point and most likely not this month. My guess is we already have seen the 2010 high at 11,4xx for the Dow.
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12-10-2010, 12:04 AM
#9
Drifting
With the new Cap gains news, not sure if there will be any crashes this year, but I'm pretty sure we'll have a good drop next year sometime. People might wait for January to sell their gainers and defer paying taxes for another year.
The DJIA chart is looking pretty toppy now with this week's trade. It's amazing that the 11,451.93 peak was tested within one point this week. I would have expected much more movement this week and the movement has been mostly down. Perhaps Friday will break the Dow out of this funk with the futures being up +30 as I write this.
Another sign for a market top are the bullish percent indices. I count 11 out of the 16 indices have 80% or higher bullish-percents (percent of stocks in index with a Point & Figure buy pattern - X's). That tells me the general market is showing some signs of being at a peak and has not failed me in the 10+ years I have relied on this metric. I like to sell stocks when they get at these levels and buy them back when the BPs drop below 50 and ideally down at 20 or less. The one promising thing to me is the NYSE BP is currently at 78 which is my main index I follow- once that breaks 85 or reverses direction, I'll begin selling more gainers and bolstering short positions I already have.
The DXD and QID i-shares should be good trades for next year for anyone wanting to capitalize on a potential market drop- those move at 2x the market for Dow and Nasdaq 100. Disclosure: I have short positions in DXD, QID, and TBT at the moment- only TBT has been profitable and should be a big gainer next year.
The DJIA chart is looking pretty toppy now with this week's trade. It's amazing that the 11,451.93 peak was tested within one point this week. I would have expected much more movement this week and the movement has been mostly down. Perhaps Friday will break the Dow out of this funk with the futures being up +30 as I write this.
Another sign for a market top are the bullish percent indices. I count 11 out of the 16 indices have 80% or higher bullish-percents (percent of stocks in index with a Point & Figure buy pattern - X's). That tells me the general market is showing some signs of being at a peak and has not failed me in the 10+ years I have relied on this metric. I like to sell stocks when they get at these levels and buy them back when the BPs drop below 50 and ideally down at 20 or less. The one promising thing to me is the NYSE BP is currently at 78 which is my main index I follow- once that breaks 85 or reverses direction, I'll begin selling more gainers and bolstering short positions I already have.
The DXD and QID i-shares should be good trades for next year for anyone wanting to capitalize on a potential market drop- those move at 2x the market for Dow and Nasdaq 100. Disclosure: I have short positions in DXD, QID, and TBT at the moment- only TBT has been profitable and should be a big gainer next year.
12-10-2010, 10:37 AM
#10
Chapter Leader (Southern Region)
I'm here for the fire sale.. 
12-11-2010, 12:52 PM
#12
Drifting
hum- not feeling any heat with those TBT positions- up over 3% for the week in a 1.3% SP500 weekly performance- I'll gladly accept those gains each and every week. I'm expecting the DXD positions to be comforting like a warm jacuzzi in the middle of a snow storm next year probably by May. I guess we'll see.
It's hard to consistently make money if you only do long positions these days. We have had a pretty good bull market rally, but what happens when it changes to be bearish? You'll be stuck with little cash to buy bargains as they come up in that market because you'll be stuck with longs that are continuously losing value that you're afraid to part with. This is similar to the current real estate market in some ways now.
I think stock investing (long/short) is similar to a Football team that can't be successful with a great offense but crappy defense- this was the 80's Chargers and they never got to the Superbowl much less win with that game plan.
It's hard to consistently make money if you only do long positions these days. We have had a pretty good bull market rally, but what happens when it changes to be bearish? You'll be stuck with little cash to buy bargains as they come up in that market because you'll be stuck with longs that are continuously losing value that you're afraid to part with. This is similar to the current real estate market in some ways now.
I think stock investing (long/short) is similar to a Football team that can't be successful with a great offense but crappy defense- this was the 80's Chargers and they never got to the Superbowl much less win with that game plan.
12-13-2010, 02:33 PM
#14
Needs more Lemon Pledge
two days to go!!
12-13-2010, 03:17 PM
#15
Team Owner
Sold some today.
12-13-2010, 07:38 PM
#16
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maybe ill put in a sell limit order so i dont lose whatever little i gained..
12-13-2010, 10:05 PM
#17
Chapter Leader (Southern Region)
Someone's stirring the Orange futures..
12-13-2010, 10:21 PM
#18
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12-23-2010, 05:26 PM
#23
Chapter Leader (Southern Region)
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