CNET News.com has a good article today on 5.1 sound & whether it will catch on.

http://news.com.com/Is+surround+soun...tml?tag=cd.top

They don't make a call, but here are some of the points they make:

there are 2 incompatible formats-- SACD & DVD-A. Consumers don't want to pick what may turn out to be a betamax technology.

the top selling DVD-A album (Best of Seal) sells 500 copies a week. The bottom of the Billboard 200 is over 6,000 a week.

Convenience-- mp3 today & cassettes in the past have won out over audio quality.

setting up 5.1 can be tricky in a home.

positives are dual disks & Acura.

 

Comparing sales is not an accurate indication. The number of DVD-A players in the U.S. doesn't even come close to the number of CD players. And if anything goes the way of the Betamax, it'll be the same company that tried to force that format onto the market -- Sony and its SACD format. More car companies are or will be offering DVD-A players. The only way you can play SACD, I believe, is by buying a Sony player. Sony has a history of trying to force its proprietary technology onto the market without a whole lot of success.

 

Agreed, but Sony created the CD as well...

SACD owns DVD-A in sound quality, but unless you have a nice system setup properly, it really is hard to tell the difference. My home system costs just about as much as my TL, and I am not sure a lot of people spend that kind of bucks on tunes. Hell I am just getting started buying my system..

 

Well, Sony AND Philips, which happen to be the same two companies backing SACD. The two companies came to compromises on a number of standards for the CD, so it's not like the introduction of Betamax. The DVD-A standard is more of an industry standard, so, hopefully, that means it'll last.

 

Surround sound will become the norm in the future, however, SACD and DVD-A may just be "stepping stones" to a new blue ray disc that will have stereo, surround, HiRez, video, and HiRez video.

Only time will tell. Egos are involved, so it may take some time.