Silver™

The oil industry has been on a hot streak this year, thanks to a series of major discoveries that have rekindled a sense of excitement across the petroleum sector, despite falling prices and a tough economy.

These discoveries, spanning five continents, are the result of hefty investments that began earlier in the decade when oil prices rose, and of new technologies that allow explorers to drill at greater depths and break tougher rocks.

“That’s the wonderful thing about price signals in a free market — it puts people in a better position to take more exploration risk,” said James T. Hackett, chairman and chief executive of Anadarko Petroleum.

More than 200 discoveries have been reported so far this year in dozens of countries, including northern Iraq’s Kurdish region, Australia, Israel, Iran, Brazil, Norway, Ghana and Russia. They have been made by international giants, like Exxon Mobil, but also by industry minnows, like Tullow Oil.

Just this month, BP said that it found a giant deepwater field that might turn out to be the biggest oil discovery ever in the Gulf of Mexico, while Anadarko announced a large find in an “exciting and highly prospective” region off Sierra Leone.

It is normal for companies to discover billions of barrels of new oil every year, but this year’s pace is unusually brisk. New oil discoveries have totaled about 10 billion barrels in the first half of the year, according to IHS Cambridge Energy Research Associates. If discoveries continue at that pace through year-end, they are likely to reach the highest level since 2000.

While recent years have featured speculation about a coming peak and subsequent decline in oil production, people in the industry say there is still plenty of oil in the ground, especially beneath the ocean floor, even if finding and extracting it is becoming harder. They say that prices and the pace of technological improvement remain the principal factors governing oil production capacity.

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/09/24/bu...ent/24oil.html

Fibonacci

From: Fibonacci
Sent: Wednesday, September 30, 2009 9:02 AM
To: XXXXXXXXXXX
Subject: RE: Peak oil is wrong, says Peter Schwartz

I think you are mistaking my general viewpoint with having a strong opinion. I could care less if oil is at $50 or $500 per barrel, it doesn't affect my standard of living either. Just saying that the "peak oil" argument is that the easy, cheap oil has already been found. Look at the major oil fields in decline, North Sea, Cantarell, etc. This is why churning up tons of sand in Saskatchewan, burning up natural gas and destroying the environment for a few extra barrels of oil makes economic sense. No question that technology will advance oil extraction capabilities, just that it will get harder and more expensive to get out of the earth 3 miles deep. Also, the current trend toward electric/hybrid technology will not outpace Chinas ability to consume at a faster rate than the West can modify their behavior. Go to China, see for yourself - I have.


From: XXXXXXXXX
Sent: Wednesday, September 30, 2009 8:46 AM
To: Fibonacci
Subject: RE: Peak oil is wrong, says Peter Schwartz

I think it is funny how two people argue about a certain point “peak oil theory” and have different definitions of what they are arguing about.
I don’t know about you, but my standard of living did not go down dramatically when oil jumped up to $120 per barrel last year. I just adjusted how I drove and consumed. Also, your buddy should consider that technology is evolving which has reduced the consumption of oil (hybrid vehicles, alternative energy, natural gas vehicles, etc.) when he states “At $125 a barrel, we're spending 1/4 of our GDP on energy.” If you pay attention to the Frankfurt Auto Show, there was a very strong shift to these types of vehicles…even more so then a few years ago.
I have no opinion either way, but I do like to look at the whole picture when I form such a strong opinion.


From: Fibonacci
Sent: Wednesday, September 30, 2009 8:33 AM
To: XXXXXXXXX
Subject: RE: Peak oil is wrong, says Peter Schwartz

Read the commentary below:
He implies that peak oil advocates say that we're simply "running out of oil" and we don't understand that the oil we are going to be mining now (which we have a lot of) is going to be costlier. This is such a stupid, intentional misrepresentation of the position of many advocates of the peak oil concept it is simply infuriating.
Peak Oil has never been about supply (although quality of supply is a factor), it has always been about flow rate. Peak oil is about whether or not we can maintain the current, expected level of oil production at current costs and if not, what the ramifications for that are.
More expensive oil means that we're spending more of our GDP on energy which means a lower quality of life across the board. Someone has to suffer, likely a lot of people have to make major sacrifices. At $125 a barrel, we're spending 1/4 of our GDP on energy. If this Brazilian oil that he's talking about is that expensive or approaching that level of expense, is that something that we can maintain with our present economy? I don't think it's very likely and as a result many dependent sectors of the economy will suffer - like food production and manufacturing.


From: XXXXXXXXX
Sent: Wednesday, September 30, 2009 8:08 AM
To: Fibonacci
Subject: Peak oil is wrong, says Peter Schwartz

http://www.cleantech.com/news/4545/schwartz-peak-oil

Silver™

When you hear people talk about "peak oil" it is most often about supply. They will site the declining fields in Saudi Arabia or Mexico as examples of the world running out of oil. Which is in turn directly related to production.

You sound like you are describing any other commodity where demand is increasing. For example, I don't hear people talking about "peak copper".

Today is not much different that the 1890's when the worlds greatest minds thought that world oil production had "peaked". Back then drilling more than 300 feet was an impossibility and therefore we couldn't get any more oil. But as has been shown time and again over the ensuing decades, a combination of technology and free markets have allowed us to get to new and more difficult fields that we thought to be impossible to get to and prices have stayed fairly flat over the 20th century. I fail to see why today is any different, as slant drilling, better geo-imaging, etc... will continue to let us get at oil that was never possible before.

And I think one thing the last few years have shown is that the world can absorb more costs for energy as we are paying as a percentage of GDP about half as much for energy as we did 30 years ago. And $100+ oil does not equal armageddon.

I remember a "fact" I was told in college that every $10 rise in oil equates to a 1% drop in GDP. I think we now know that to be false...




I hadn't heard that figure, do you have a link?

Fibonacci

Thats because most metals can be recycled/reused. Fossil fuels cannot.


That wasn't my quote, that was commentary in the original link if you tab down.

Fibonacci

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/a0c7be74-a...nclick_check=1

Silver™

Recycling can't come close to keeping up with global demand.

Isn't that the reason commodities have been going up in recent years? As 5 years ago it was about $1.20/lb and its now 3 times the price.

Fibonacci

Recycling/reuse, substitution, innovation, new sourcing - its a mixed bag.


A large reason for the upward move in commodities in recent years is because investors have been seeking them out as an asset class. Pension funds, Endowments, ETF investors, etc. all looking for a hedge.... That plus the undeveloped world rapidly wanting to acquire American lifestyles: seems like Hummers, McMansions, Super Size Value Meals, Tom Cruise and Cruise Missiles are universally desired around teh globe.

As for your $1.20/lb ~ not sure exactly what you are referring to.

Fibonacci

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/10/20/bu...20renasia.html

Professor

Wealth Building
Shoaib Vayej|20 October 2009 13:28

Oil: "Black Gold" or "Fools Gold"?

Shoaib Vayej argues the oil price will retrace in the medium term.
While it can be conceded that forecasting the price of oil will always remain challenging, several indicators and trends are leading us to believe that the price of this ‘black gold' could well retrace in the medium term. Thus any investor chasing the stratospheric highs reached temporarily last year may well find only "fool's gold" instead.

The oil price is closely watched because it impacts everyone, yet it remains one of the most difficult economic variables to predict. The price chart reflects the proverbial rollercoaster, with oil driven from lows of $10/bbl in 1998 to a peak 10 years later of over $140/bbl, and then crashing back below $40/bbl in the midst of the economic crisis. Prices have since recovered to over $70/bbl.

With these wild swings in price, pity the oil analyst whose only certainty is uncertainty. Future price expectations currently exceed $80/bbl. However, such forecasts reflect an extrapolation of recent trends; implying that oil would be half as affordable as it has been historically into perpetuity. Current price levels ignore fundamentals and I expect a retracement in the price over the medium term.

The persistent rise in prices that has defined the past decade is a symptom of investment lagging above-trend economic growth, exaggerated by speculative demand. This rising trend has past its zenith, with the downturn partly triggered by an economic crisis, but predominantly due to a delayed step change in fuel efficiency and the coincident restoration of upstream capacity.

Oil is a dense, convenient form of energy, an essential ingredient of the modern economy. Testimony to its importance is the value spent globally on oil, around 3% of global Gross Domestic Product (GDP) on a trend basis. While there are substitutes for oil, these must be traded against their lower energy density and inconvenience. The key linkage therefore is price. By implication if oil ceases to be cheap, at least in a relative sense, its attractiveness is diminished.

Oil cycles tend to be resilient because both supply and demand are inelastic - at least in the short term. With a lead time between discovering oil and producing of just less than a decade, many of the projects we see coming to fruition today were conceived in an environment of sub-$30/bbl oil! Further, usage of oil is so prevalent in modern society that entire manufacturing and infrastructure systems are built to deliver it. The initial response to increased prices is thrift, with secular changes only possible once there is widespread belief that these high prices are sustainable and there is regulatory intervention.

Oil usage is inherently inefficient, especially in transport fuel applications, which account for more than half of global oil demand. Only around 13% of the contained energy in petrol is used to cover the tractive load of a vehicle! While it is impossible to design a perfectly efficient engine, this demonstrates the scale of opportunity in improving efficiency. Oil intensity relative to GDP has declined consistently by around 1.8% a year. Following the two oil crises in the 1970's, oil intensity experienced a step-change relative to GDP. Efficiency gains averaged 5% a year. When affordability reached an extreme 7% of global GDP (see chart). This pattern seems to be repeating, with efficiency gains over the last three years double the trend level.

Over and above the actions of individual consumers, governments have sought to promote efficiency due to environmental concerns and energy security. In the US, the largest oil consumer, we have seen the upward revision in Corporate Average Fuel Efficiency (CAFE) targets under the last two administrations.

The remaining engines of growth are China and the Middle East. China's high income growth and distorted pricing regime resulted in affordability improving, despite record prices! However, the outlook is dampened by a moderation in income growth and fuel price liberalisation. The Middle East demand pattern is pro-cyclical, reflecting high income growth linked directly to oil prices.

Conservation efforts are imperative because oil reserves are finite. We started running out of oil when we started using it, as demand has exceeded the rate of geological formation. ‘Peak oil' theorists believe the diminishing rate of oil discoveries implies peak production is near - or has already been reached. However, the ratio of cumulative production to the estimate of the natural endowment has remained constant at 30%, implying that the rate of resource discovery has so far kept pace with exponential production growth. This is also supported by the reserve-to-production ratio that has remained relatively stable at 40 years.

OPEC's dominant supply position is undisputed, with a 40% share of production and three quarters of reserves. However, its ability to control prices is grossly overstated. OPEC constitutes around 13 countries, of varied geographic location and political persuasion, all heavily reliant on oil revenues. Historically cohesion among OPEC countries has been poor. Discipline is required in desperate times, but is often found wanting in terms of "game theory": seeking to maximise your own volume without jeopardizing the price. In fact, OPEC has only recently restored the absolute level of production to the levels it enjoyed towards the end of the 1970's, a severe hangover from the record prices of that era.

OPEC cannot time investments to match demand. Instead OPEC is relegated to managing inventories, by maintaining an adequate cushion of capacity and by ensuring production restraint. Despite OPEC's frequent statements on "desired price" levels, a simple observation of the price chart reveals that no one is in control of the market. Analysts often point to the oil price level required to balance OPEC countries' budgets, but the cyclicality in their spending suggests that the causality runs the opposite way.

Meanwhile, the current state of oil markets resembles the supply glut leading up to 1998. Spare capacity is twice normal levels on an absolute and proportional basis. OECD inventories exceed 60 days of demand cover, above the normal 55 days cover. OPEC, emboldened by the improvement in price, continues adding to inventories, despite the apparent slack in these variables. OPEC is producing above its quota by approximately 1million barrels per day (mbpd) and that quota is currently 0.5mbpd above the "call on OPEC" production. This makes the implied growth in global inventories an alarming 1.5mbpd!

Consensus forecasts seem conservative in the context of the recent peak above $140/bbl. However, the three-year moving average in the oil price peaked at $80/bbl, meaning that high prices were never sustained for any meaningful length of time.

*Shoiab Vayej is equity analyst and portfolio manager at Sanlam Investment Management.


http://www.moneyweb.co.za/mw/view/mw...age&pid=287226

Fibonacci

Exclusive: Watchdog's estimates of reserves inflated says top official

http://www.guardian.co.uk/environmen...-energy-agency

Silver™

What is the motivation of the US to do so?

Fibonacci

So teh sheeple keep on truckin and supersizin'!

Fibonacci

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/f9267d88-c...44feab49a.html

Fibonacci

How demand for oil will change by 2030

http://www.economist.com/daily/news/...90202&fsrc=nwl

Majofo

I used to work for a foremost researcher in the field and the supply is truly dwindling.. most of us will see the result before the end of our generation.

Brandon24pdx

Because, the US would by far have the farthest to fall if the info in that article became too widely believed in the marketplace. The price would go through the roof instantly and panic would set in. IDK the exact figure from memory, but the US uses some obscenely larger percentage of the world's oil so we can play cars all day. We don't even come close to supporting our use though domestic production.

At 83 million barrels a day worldwide, that's over 30 billion barrels a year. The total oil in the ground has been estimated at 2 trillion barrels, of which roughly half has been used already according to estimates. Assuming that, it would take roughly 30 years to burn through 1 trillion barrels, but remember of course demand is continuing to increase, so speed that up a little bit. Then of course remember you're not going to get every last drop out of the ground, so move that time frame up ever further. It doesn't replenish itself (well, technically it might, but it would take millenia to do so), so throw that junk science out the window.

So yeah, of course we're running out. What exactly will happen and when is anyone's guess. We've never had to contend with a shrinking supply of energy in the modern age, so it will be totally uncharted territory.

Silver™

So it's a giant conspiracy whose goal is to fool the American people until one day we wake up to an economic catastrophe of running our of oil?

And the markets are driven by the here and now, not possible disruptions years ahead, so I fail to see how we would fall "far" if the government admitted we were running out of oil.

Silver™

Not many people think of the Netherlands as oil country, but a billion-barrel field lies under a nine-mile strip of grazing land along the Dutch-German border. When oil prices cratered in the 1990s, Royal Dutch Shell and ExxonMobil shut the Schoonebeek field down. Company executives reckoned that its thick, hard-to-extract crude wasn't worth the trouble, even though only about 25 percent of Schoonebeek's oil had been produced. The main evidence of the town's petroleum past was an old-fashioned bobbing oil pump, known as a nodding donkey, which still stands in a parking lot near a bakery.

Now higher prices and technological advances are spurring a new joint venture of Shell, Exxon, and the Dutch government to pump Schoonebeek's reserves once more. New wells drilled horizontally are coming in contact with more of the oil. Steam injected into the rock loosens up its molasses-like crude so it can be brought to the surface more easily. Shell won't say what price it needs to make such efforts profitable, but experts estimate $40 to $50 per barrel will do. At a current price of $80, the field is a clear winner. "We wouldn't do this if the price was really low," says Michael Lander, the Shell executive running the project. The venture is expected to produce 120 million barrels from the reopened western section of Schoonebeek over 20 years. If another section of the field is developed, the recovery rate — the share of oil that gets pumped out — would approach 50 percent. The industry average is 30 percent to 35 percent.

Pressure to innovate
Schoonebeek will not flood the world with crude. But its success presents a stiff challenge to those who argue that oil production is in irreversible decline. Consumer demand, technology, and global politics are shifting in a way that could spell a future of oil abundance, not of catastrophic dearth. As Leonardo Maugeri, a senior executive at Italian oil major ENI, puts it: "There will be enough oil for at least 100 years."

Many analysts and industry executives have little doubt that there's plenty of oil in the ground. "Only about 32 percent of the oil [in reserves] is produced," says Val Brock, Shell's head of business development for enhanced oil recovery. Shell estimates 300 billion barrels and maybe more might be squeezed out of existing fields, much of it once thought beyond retrieval. Peter Jackson, IHS Cambridge Energy Research Associates' London-based senior director for oil industry activity, has reviewed data from the world's biggest fields. His conclusion: 60 percent of their reserves remain available.

The fact that there's still oil for the taking is driving Shell and other majors to come up with new technologies, which are expensive to develop but worth it when crude is riding high. While the price has fallen considerably from the peak of $147 per barrel in 2008, it is still far above what many oilmen expected a few years ago. "You will see companies going into the deep water, going into the arctic, using the best technology," says Maugeri, who sees the oil industry as a dynamic system that responds rapidly to changes in the economic and political environment.


Even if the new technologies add just a few percentage points to the recovery rate, such gains add years to global supply and boost the industry's profits. So the technology of coaxing oil out of the ground is constantly improving. Heating up heavy oil, as at Schoonebeek, is one new trick. Companies can add heavy polymers to the water they blast into a production site to push more oil out; the polymers add weight to the water and increase the pressure on deposits. (Shell is trying such technology on the Marmul field in Oman.) Another tactic is to inject soap into the ground to break the surface tension that makes leftover oil cling to the rock.

Simple methods can help mature oil fields produce more and even uncover bigger reserves than imagined. A study of fields in Indonesia by IHS CERA found that it wasn't uncommon for them to produce more than double initial estimates. Petroleum engineers help the fields live longer just by drilling new wells or installing better pumps. "As a field ages, the operators learn more ... that allows them to tweak their operations," explains Leta K. Smith, a Houston-based analyst for IHS CERA.

Sharp falls in production can be arrested. Output at Samotlor, Russia's largest field, was plummeting in the late 1990s. The field's owner, TNK-BP, formed in 2003, has since managed to boost production by a third. Adjusting the placement of the pumps in the wells yielded big gains, while three-dimensional seismic technology gave a better glimpse of the oil-bearing structures under the ground.


Iraq's wild card
Pumping the oil that's already discovered isn't the whole story. Explorers, sometimes financed by hedge funds and private equity firms, are finding troves in the deep water off Brazil, West Africa, and even the U.S. At the same time, old and new oil powers — Russia, Brazil, Angola, Nigeria, and Kazakhstan — are ramping up their capacity with the aid of Total, ExxonMobil, BP, and other majors. These projects could eventually add 5 million barrels to global daily output.

The most surprising action is unfolding in Iraq, which has just cut deals with ExxonMobil, BP, and Shell as well as with Chinese and Russian companies. If all these ventures meet their targets, Iraq could produce as much as 12 million barrels a day, putting it in the super league with Saudi Arabia and Russia. Given the political and logistical obstacles Iraq faces, that seems unrealistic anytime soon. But 6 million barrels a day seems attainable within 10 to 15 years. That level would turn Iraq into OPEC's No. 2 producer after Saudi Arabia.

Moderating global demand can also stretch the supply of crude. After the oil shocks of the 1970s, efficiency gains and a switch by factories to natural gas prompted a nearly 10 percent drop in global oil consumption in the early 1980s.

The price spike of 2008 may lead to similar results. Lester Brown, president of the Earth Policy Institute in Washington, an environmental group, notes that the U.S. car fleet shrank by 4 million in 2009, thanks to scrapping and reduced sales. He expects that shrinkage to continue, reducing the U.S. fleet by 25 million cars by 2020. He also sees a cultural change occurring in which more people, especially the young, don't see owning a car as a necessity. "We are now looking at something new, a shift in the way people think about automobiles," he says. "That means less oil use."

U.S. oil consumption dropped by 9 percent over the last two years. The recession certainly hurt demand, but many analysts think oil use in the West has peaked and will not rebound to previous levels. The Energy Dept. sees the consumption of oil-based fuel in the U.S. flattening out in the coming decades. "Are people going to use energy differently in the next [growth] phase?" asks Goran Trapp, head of global oil trading at Morgan Stanley in London. "If so, the people forecasting [strong] demand increases are going to be surprised."

China is one key to answering Trapp's question. Even as the mainland devours oil and coal, the government is pursuing a green agenda. China has the world's top solar panel industry, a power plant in Beijing is one of the world's most efficient, and auto emission standards there are now tougher than those in the U.S. China's official policy mandates that alternate sources support 15 percent of the country's energy needs by 2020, up from 9 percent now. So China's petroleum consumption will keep increasing, but perhaps at not so steep a rate as expected. A nasty oil shock is always possible. But the case for bountiful oil is strong.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/34770285...il_and_energy/

Silver™

The star of the show by far was Aramco’s Al Falih. He believes the “peak oil” debate is dead, though it caused damage in the form of price increases and volatility. He said Saudi Arabia has 4 million barrels per day of idle oil capacity at the moment and that the country continued to invest in its fields through the recession, adding 2 million barrels of capacity last year despite the global decline in demand. His beef is that though Saudi Arabia continues to invest in production, “we don’t see reciprocal assurances from customers, by which I mean policymakers, to signal to us a long-term commitment.”

http://brainstormtech.blogs.fortune....azines_fortune

Fibonacci

Big Oil is being forced to rethink its future

http://www.economist.com/daily/news/...73681&fsrc=nwl

Fibonacci

Offshore oil platforms operate at ever-greater depths

http://www.economist.com/daily/news/...02848&fsrc=nwl

Black Tire

12:09 into this vid:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GBPI-Y1ac7I

Fibonacci

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-0...tom-keene.html

MS

mrsteve

iTrader: (1)

The price of a barrel of oil would be closer to $10 if the commodity wasn't traded as an investment instrument, given the record-high levels of U.S. oil inventories, Peter Beutel, president of Cameron Hanover, told CNBC Monday.


"I honestly think that if there were no investors using oil as an asset that the price of oil right now would be $10 or $15 or $18, but it wouldn't be anywhere near where it is," Beutel said.

"We have so much oil right now, more than we've had in 27 years. Why is it 27 years? Because that's how far our records go back. It's probably the most in 50 or 100 years," he added.

Part of the reason the price of oil is currently above $74 a barrel is because of a belief in the economic recovery, Beutel said.

Comments by Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke over the weekend gave the commodity a boost as he signalled a willingness to support the fragile economic recovery with additional policy measures.

From a historical perspective, Beutel pointed out that the current level of inventories is even higher than when the price of oil was below $20 a barrel.

"We've got 50 million barrels of crude more than we had two years ago. We have 176 million of distillate," Beutel said. "When I started in the business back in 1980 we used to think to ourselves: "Gee, we would love it if we had 140 million barrels of distillates to start the winter."

Not all market watchers agree that the price of oil should or will go lower. Jonathan Barratt, managing director at Commodity Broking Services, told CNBC that he thinks oil will rise to between $82 and $85 a barrel.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/38915139

Fibonacci

The price of _______ would be closer to $___.__ if ________ wasn't traded as an investment instrument.

Fibonacci

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/08/30/bu...nt/30deep.html

Fibonacci

http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/tech...ble-study.html

Ken1997TL

There's always a LOT of natural gas, a very simple conversion process compared to the alternatives

Silver™

Last year was a really good year for new oil discoveries, there were at least 14 major oil discoveries in Brazil alone totaling 13.5 to 26.7 billion barrels.

In addition, there were more than 30 billion barrels discovered in other parts of the world in 2010, including Iran, Russia, Norway (more), Mexico, Ghana, Iraq, U.S. (Texas, ND and Montana and Colorado), Falkland Islands, U.K., Angola (more) and Oman, bringing the total of new recoverable oil discoveries in 2010 to around 50 billion barrels. Brazil was the clear leader in 2010, with the oil found there representing up to half of all new global oil discoveries in 2010. With oil now selling now at close to $90 per barrel, we can expect even more discoveries in 2011.

http://mjperry.blogspot.com/2011/01/...r-new-oil.html

Fibonacci

^^ Quite fond of your recent trend of bumping my threads, like the cream of the crop, I rise to the top...

Delay just a year as we go deeper and deeper!

Fibonacci

http://www.investmentpostcards.com/2...m+Cape+Town%29

Fibonacci

Regardless of what path Egypt now follows, a leading analyst says the price of oil is headed toward $300 a barrel based on basic supply-and-demand forces.

http://online.barrons.com/article/SB...el_article%3D1

Majofo

DeathMetal

iTrader: (2)

I just started reading up on this last night, very frightening, to say the least.

It almost makes me wonder if there is any legitimate reason, at the age of 29, to wonder if I should even bother investing towards the future or just blow my extra cash now while life is still enjoyable, haha

Majofo

Matthew 6:34

DeathMetal

iTrader: (2)

Nice.

I am not worrying about this one too much right now...shortly after reading this thread and coming across some other PEAK OIL information, I managed to give myself another reason to freak out, and that is the seemingly imminent devaluation of the US dollar and the subsequent elimination of the dollar as an international standard.

Hello, 'civil unrest'

Fibonacci

I think our boys water-s and special-ed were ahead of the curve!


On a serious note, I don't think our way of life is under immediate threat. But clearly the warning bells have been tolling for a while and we need to get our shit together. The decisions we make in the near future will echo for generations.

Fibonacci

How the country measures up in crude supplies and production.

Source IEA (if you tab down to 'Explainer')


http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/42177894...deastn_africa/

Pete2010

I recently returned from Norway on a 10 day trip meeting with many different energy producers (Oil/Gas, Wind, Hydro, etc). And the one thing that was most impactful about Oil and Gas exploration and drilling talked about the % of oil that was currently able to be extracted.

We met with the CFO of NorthEnergy (http://www.northenergy.no/) And he was telling us that current technology in Norway, allows them to extract approx 48% of the oil from any of their wells. They talked about how they were one of the companies that were doing the best in oil extraction percentage. In the US for example, we can only pull out approx 20-30% of the oil from known wells.

What blew me away, was that for most oil wells that have been discovered, there is still about 75% of the oil in the ground (that current technology can't get to yet). That leads to the assumption, that for all the oil that has ever been extracted, there is still somewhere between 50%-75% of the oil still down there. It was a very thought. He did say about how the oil is going to run out eventually, and the world needs to move to more sustainable ways to generate power (Geothermal, Hydro, Solar, Wind, Tidal, etc, etc..) I think we'll end up seeing many different solutions to the energy problem over the next 50 years, instead of just one solution (like we see now with oil).

Fibonacci

http://www.businessinsider.com/alekl...n-has-peaked-1



Are we smarter than a Fifth Grader?