Recession
Originally Posted by moeronn
:ibmovetoM&I:
I think it will be very bad for some people. Some folks really over-extended the last couple years with low interest rates, interest only loans, etc. A large percentage of them did not really consider what happens when the economy changes. Add to this all the people that lost jobs because of down-sizing.
Now they are fighting to keep their homes, pay for cars they can't afford, and pay off credit card bills. And at the same time trying to not have to change their life style. For them the recession will be very hard and will last a while.
For the smart few that used the low rates to lock in better payments and pay off their debt, they will be OK.
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From: Toronto
Originally Posted by RaviNJCLs
For the smart few that used the low rates to lock in better payments and pay off their debt, they will be OK.
Originally Posted by Black Tire
Yep thats what my family did. Where I live, I have seen one house get moved in and out like 3 times
And the thing is, when I lived in Jersey, the only debt I had was my house and cars. No CC bills. I just knew that if we stayed, eventually income was going be be less then expenditure and it would have killed us.
Last edited by RaviNJCLs; Jan 28, 2008 at 02:51 PM.
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The sizzle in the Steak
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From: Southern California
Originally Posted by amisconception
Don't worry, Bernanke's going to prop up another bubble soon. 
Commodities here we come
Commodities here we come
They've been going nuts for over 6 months now.
I feel the need...
Joined: May 2004
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From: Motown
The Economy Is Fine (Really)
An alternative perspective...
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1201...d=opinion_main
It is hard to imagine any time in history when such rampant pessimism about the economy has existed with so little evidence of serious trouble.
True, retail sales fell 0.4% in December and fourth-quarter real GDP probably grew at only a 1.5% annual rate. It is also true that in the past six months manufacturing production has been flat, new orders for durable goods have fallen at a 0.8% annual rate, and unemployment blipped up to 5%. Soft data for sure, but nowhere near the end of the world.
It is most likely that this recent weakness is a payback for previous strength. Real GDP surged at a 4.9% annual rate in the third quarter, while retail sales jumped 1.1% in November. A one-month drop in retail sales is not unusual. In each of the past five years, retail sales have reported at least three negative months. These declines are part of the normal volatility of the data, caused by wild swings in oil prices, seasonal adjustments, or weather. Over-reacting is a mistake.....
True, retail sales fell 0.4% in December and fourth-quarter real GDP probably grew at only a 1.5% annual rate. It is also true that in the past six months manufacturing production has been flat, new orders for durable goods have fallen at a 0.8% annual rate, and unemployment blipped up to 5%. Soft data for sure, but nowhere near the end of the world.
It is most likely that this recent weakness is a payback for previous strength. Real GDP surged at a 4.9% annual rate in the third quarter, while retail sales jumped 1.1% in November. A one-month drop in retail sales is not unusual. In each of the past five years, retail sales have reported at least three negative months. These declines are part of the normal volatility of the data, caused by wild swings in oil prices, seasonal adjustments, or weather. Over-reacting is a mistake.....
'05 TSX 6MT
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The trigger was the December jobs report, showing a jump in unemployment off a cyclical low. You see this and call a recession, you will be right most of the time.
On Friday, I think we'll see a much better January employment report, and upward revision to the December report.
That said, there are two choices, a slowdown that feels like a recession, or a recession.
What happens when this housing market collides with recession? Hint, look to Detroit Motor City.
On Friday, I think we'll see a much better January employment report, and upward revision to the December report.
That said, there are two choices, a slowdown that feels like a recession, or a recession.
What happens when this housing market collides with recession? Hint, look to Detroit Motor City.
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Apr 28, 2005 05:28 PM