The "official" housing bubble thread
02-13-2008, 08:05 PM
#1001
Houses Won't Depreciate?
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been there done that 
I've seen it happening back home already
https://acurazine.com/forums/showpos...71&postcount=1
I've seen it happening back home already
https://acurazine.com/forums/showpos...71&postcount=1
02-14-2008, 01:27 PM
#1003
Make MyTL Great Again
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The value of existing single-family homes in U.S. metro areas fell by a record 5.8 percent in the fourth quarter from the same period in 2006, the National Association of Realtors said on Thursday.
The quarterly survey of metro region prices showed that prices fell in all regions, with homes in the West tumbling 8.7 percent and prices in the South off 5.4 percent, the second-sharpest decline in the country.
The price decline was the sharpest since home values fell 2.7 percent from the fourth quarter of 2005 to the same period of 2006.
Of 150 metro regions surveyed in the latest report, 77 saw prices drop.
The median existing single-family home price was down 5.8 percent to $206,200 in the fourth quarter of last year compared to $219,000 during that same period in 2006.
The quarterly survey of metro region prices showed that prices fell in all regions, with homes in the West tumbling 8.7 percent and prices in the South off 5.4 percent, the second-sharpest decline in the country.
The price decline was the sharpest since home values fell 2.7 percent from the fourth quarter of 2005 to the same period of 2006.
Of 150 metro regions surveyed in the latest report, 77 saw prices drop.
The median existing single-family home price was down 5.8 percent to $206,200 in the fourth quarter of last year compared to $219,000 during that same period in 2006.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...LY8&refer=home
single family 4th quarter 2007
Condo 4th Quarter 2007
02-14-2008, 03:28 PM
#1004
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NAR price numbers are not good to use. S&P/Case Shiller are much better. Don't pay any attention to NAR, except for supply numbers.
Around here, prices were really bad 4Q07, the leftovers from the spring market got desperate.
I'm not offering anybody any hope regarding # of sales or prices
Around here, prices were really bad 4Q07, the leftovers from the spring market got desperate.
I'm not offering anybody any hope regarding # of sales or prices
02-14-2008, 09:04 PM
#1005
Make MyTL Great Again
Originally Posted by 5o9
NAR price numbers are not good to use. S&P/Case Shiller are much better. Don't pay any attention to NAR, except for supply numbers.
Around here, prices were really bad 4Q07, the leftovers from the spring market got desperate.
I'm not offering anybody any hope regarding # of sales or prices
Around here, prices were really bad 4Q07, the leftovers from the spring market got desperate.
I'm not offering anybody any hope regarding # of sales or prices
02-15-2008, 12:22 PM
#1006
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Just Google S&P Case Shiller, they are at the top of the list. Also try OFHEO.gov, has data on all metros.
Me, I got a local economist that does a house price index, paid for by state real estate licensing fees. You might not have that. I talk to him on the phone, e-mail, attend conferences, etc.
I get to the bottom of things by analyzing sales data, and talking to some trusted brokers, appraisers, bankers and builders who are known to tell the truth (not many). You do it enough, you make a group consensus forecast.
Me, I got a local economist that does a house price index, paid for by state real estate licensing fees. You might not have that. I talk to him on the phone, e-mail, attend conferences, etc.
I get to the bottom of things by analyzing sales data, and talking to some trusted brokers, appraisers, bankers and builders who are known to tell the truth (not many). You do it enough, you make a group consensus forecast.
02-16-2008, 12:37 PM
#1007
I feel the need...
Metro home sales up by 15%
Turning the corner in Motown? 
Detroit leads gains with almost double amount of closings over same period last year.
http://www.detnews.com/apps/pbcs.dll.../BIZ/802150373
Detroit leads gains with almost double amount of closings over same period last year.
Sales of residential and condominium units in Detroit nearly doubled in January, compared with the same month a year ago, and the region overall got a nearly 15 percent bump, according to real estate data firm Realcomp.
The city of Detroit led the gainers, posting a 45.5 percent increase in the month, with 736 closings.
Seven Realtors who deal primarily in downtown Detroit area property said they have enjoyed some of their recent best sale months in December and January. Sales of houses and condominiums in Detroit jumped by a 33.9 percent in December 2007, compared to December 2006. No other market in the Metro Detroit area came close to that kind of increase last year, according to Realcomp.
Realtors credit tumbling prices, low interest rates and sales of foreclosed properties or properties hoping to avoid foreclosures.....
The city of Detroit led the gainers, posting a 45.5 percent increase in the month, with 736 closings.
Seven Realtors who deal primarily in downtown Detroit area property said they have enjoyed some of their recent best sale months in December and January. Sales of houses and condominiums in Detroit jumped by a 33.9 percent in December 2007, compared to December 2006. No other market in the Metro Detroit area came close to that kind of increase last year, according to Realcomp.
Realtors credit tumbling prices, low interest rates and sales of foreclosed properties or properties hoping to avoid foreclosures.....
02-19-2008, 05:21 PM
#1008
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Go to maps.live.com look at Birdseye view
I was showing a friend a 100+ acre site. We quickly identified a quarter acre pond that we never would have found if we walked the site for 12 hours!
I could identify my TSX in a parking lot. Just went to places where the car would be
Aerials I was looking at were taken maybe in the Spring 2006. Friend complained that they should be in real time
I was showing a friend a 100+ acre site. We quickly identified a quarter acre pond that we never would have found if we walked the site for 12 hours!
I could identify my TSX in a parking lot. Just went to places where the car would be
Aerials I was looking at were taken maybe in the Spring 2006. Friend complained that they should be in real time
02-19-2008, 05:51 PM
#1009
Moderator Alumnus
Originally Posted by Fibonacci
Turning the corner in Motown?
Detroit leads gains with almost double amount of closings over same period last year.
http://www.detnews.com/apps/pbcs.dll.../BIZ/802150373
Detroit leads gains with almost double amount of closings over same period last year.
http://www.detnews.com/apps/pbcs.dll.../BIZ/802150373
Houses there are so cheap and commodities are so high, people probably figured there was value in buying them and tearing them down for scrap
02-20-2008, 01:20 PM
#1012
Make MyTL Great Again
Does anyone here know why the hell the mortgage rate from my bank jumped to 6.5% today from the 6% it was yesterday?
I haven't found any news justifying that jump.
I haven't found any news justifying that jump.
02-21-2008, 12:34 PM
#1013
Houses Won't Depreciate?
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Originally Posted by AdamNJ
Does anyone here know why the hell the mortgage rate from my bank jumped to 6.5% today from the 6% it was yesterday?
I haven't found any news justifying that jump.
I haven't found any news justifying that jump.
Mortgage rates posted the largest one-week increase since April 1994, and over the last four weeks has increased by the largest amount since mortgage rates shot up from record low levels in the summer of 2003. Despite the pronounced move in mortgage rates, there wasn't one single factor that spurred the increase, but rather several contributing to the upward movement in recent weeks. The realization that the world hasn't come to an end is leading bond investors to unwind positions taken in January when economic and financial pessimism reigned. Inflation continues to percolate, as evidenced by $100 per barrel oil and yet another troubling uptick in the Consumer Price Index. But mortgage rates have increased much more than Treasury yields as investors reassess mortgage-backed securities in light of higher conforming loan limits to be announced in March.
02-21-2008, 12:41 PM
#1014
it's me, Alan Rickman.
I want a new house now... Our builder has a bigger one for sale and now I want it 
DAMNIT.
the property value screenshot is hilarious
The market has crashed pretty bad in the major city near me, because i'm in a smaller / developing area the hit was even harder. I don't think I can sell my current house
DAMNIT.
the property value screenshot is hilarious
The market has crashed pretty bad in the major city near me, because i'm in a smaller / developing area the hit was even harder. I don't think I can sell my current house
02-21-2008, 03:59 PM
#1015
Make MyTL Great Again
Originally Posted by zamo
02-22-2008, 05:44 PM
#1016
I feel the need...
Banks Lose to Deadbeat Homeowners as Loans Sold in Bonds Vanish
By Bob Ivry Feb. 22 (Bloomberg) --
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...d=aejJZdqodTCM
Joe Lents hasn't made a payment on his $1.5 million mortgage since 2002.
That's when Washington Mutual Inc. first tried to foreclose on his home in Boca Raton, Florida. The Seattle-based lender failed to prove that it owned Lents's mortgage note and dropped attempts to take his house. Subsequent efforts to foreclose have stalled because no one has produced the paperwork.
``If you're going to take my house away from me, you better own the note,'' said Lents, 63, the former chief executive officer of a now-defunct voice recognition software company.
Judges in at least five states have stopped foreclosure proceedings because the banks that pool mortgages into securities and the companies that collect monthly payments haven't been able to prove they own the mortgages. The confusion is another headache for U.S. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson as he revises rules for packaging mortgages into securities.
``I think it's going to become pretty hairy,'' said Josh Rosner, managing director at the New York-based investment research firm Graham Fisher & Co. ``Regulators appear to have ignored this, given the size and scope of the problem.''
More than $2.1 trillion, or 19 percent, of outstanding mortgages have been bundled into securities by private banks, according to Inside Mortgage Finance, a Bethesda, Maryland-based industry newsletter. Those loans may be sold several times before they land in a security. Mortgage servicers, who collect monthly payments and distribute them to securities investors, can buy and sell the home loans many times.....
That's when Washington Mutual Inc. first tried to foreclose on his home in Boca Raton, Florida. The Seattle-based lender failed to prove that it owned Lents's mortgage note and dropped attempts to take his house. Subsequent efforts to foreclose have stalled because no one has produced the paperwork.
``If you're going to take my house away from me, you better own the note,'' said Lents, 63, the former chief executive officer of a now-defunct voice recognition software company.
Judges in at least five states have stopped foreclosure proceedings because the banks that pool mortgages into securities and the companies that collect monthly payments haven't been able to prove they own the mortgages. The confusion is another headache for U.S. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson as he revises rules for packaging mortgages into securities.
``I think it's going to become pretty hairy,'' said Josh Rosner, managing director at the New York-based investment research firm Graham Fisher & Co. ``Regulators appear to have ignored this, given the size and scope of the problem.''
More than $2.1 trillion, or 19 percent, of outstanding mortgages have been bundled into securities by private banks, according to Inside Mortgage Finance, a Bethesda, Maryland-based industry newsletter. Those loans may be sold several times before they land in a security. Mortgage servicers, who collect monthly payments and distribute them to securities investors, can buy and sell the home loans many times.....
02-25-2008, 05:32 PM
#1018
I feel the need...
Homebuyer Patience Triumphs in a Waiting Game
Commentary by John F. Wasik Feb. 25 (Bloomberg) --
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...d=aZnFXu0C1WZ0
With no bottom in sight for the U.S. housing market, buyers are in game-show mode.
There are plenty of deals out there, yet you have to make some decisions if you are buying a new home. Choices flash in front of you as if a host is badgering you to decide your next move. Do you wait for prices to fall further? Or do you buy now and take the builder's incentives or their financing?
Whatever strategy you adopt, you will need to ignore some of the bells and whistles being offered and focus on price. You don't want to be caught buying a home today that may be marked down $50,000 next month.
With more than 4 million unsold homes on the market, the buyer with good credit and cash for a down payment can do well.....
There are plenty of deals out there, yet you have to make some decisions if you are buying a new home. Choices flash in front of you as if a host is badgering you to decide your next move. Do you wait for prices to fall further? Or do you buy now and take the builder's incentives or their financing?
Whatever strategy you adopt, you will need to ignore some of the bells and whistles being offered and focus on price. You don't want to be caught buying a home today that may be marked down $50,000 next month.
With more than 4 million unsold homes on the market, the buyer with good credit and cash for a down payment can do well.....
02-28-2008, 08:25 AM
#1020
Houses Won't Depreciate?
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Originally Posted by yunginTL
so how do you guys end up finding a good realtor?
02-29-2008, 06:29 PM
#1022
I feel the need...
Real estate: Buy, sell, or hold?
That's the question homeowners are asking in the midst of the worst real estate slump in decades. Our exclusive calculations can help you figure out what your house will be worth in coming years.
http://money.cnn.com/2007/11/06/real...tune/index.htm
(Fortune Magazine) -- You can't blame America's homeowners for feeling hopelessly confused. From suburban porches and city terraces, they're gawking at a housing world gone mad. Just 18 months ago, folks on a tony Linden Lane or a leafy Boxwood Court were astounded to see the colonial their neighbors bought for $600,000 in 2000 sell for $1.5 million after multiple bids. Now they're just as bewildered to watch the same model across the street go begging for months at $1.1 million without a single offer.
The millions of Americans who believed yesterday's happy talk about housing are now paying the price, from couples who stretched to buy second homes, to true believers who drove the Florida condo craze, to executives who can't take that great new job in Charlotte without suffering a huge loss on the house purchased at the bubble's peak in Sacramento.
Now that the gilded forecasts have proved spectacularly wrong, homeowners don't know what to think about real estate's future. The dizzying rise sure didn't make sense. And the sudden slump doesn't seem any more logical. How can you make reasonable financial plans for the future if you have no idea what your house is worth?
Take a deep breath. We can't tell you what your house would fetch tomorrow. But we can help you through the fog of whipsawing prices and vacillating views to develop a clear picture of what your house will most likely be worth in five years or so. Over long periods housing, like stocks and bonds, follows a set of economic fundamentals. No matter how far prices get unhinged in a speculative craze - and we've just witnessed a blowout - those basic forces eventually regain their grip.....
The millions of Americans who believed yesterday's happy talk about housing are now paying the price, from couples who stretched to buy second homes, to true believers who drove the Florida condo craze, to executives who can't take that great new job in Charlotte without suffering a huge loss on the house purchased at the bubble's peak in Sacramento.
Now that the gilded forecasts have proved spectacularly wrong, homeowners don't know what to think about real estate's future. The dizzying rise sure didn't make sense. And the sudden slump doesn't seem any more logical. How can you make reasonable financial plans for the future if you have no idea what your house is worth?
Take a deep breath. We can't tell you what your house would fetch tomorrow. But we can help you through the fog of whipsawing prices and vacillating views to develop a clear picture of what your house will most likely be worth in five years or so. Over long periods housing, like stocks and bonds, follows a set of economic fundamentals. No matter how far prices get unhinged in a speculative craze - and we've just witnessed a blowout - those basic forces eventually regain their grip.....
03-01-2008, 04:19 PM
#1023
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^
Nice linkage. In September 2007, Economy.com did the same sort of analysis for CNN Money. In the September 2007 report, my market was one of the worst, in this November 2007 report, it is now one of the least-worst.
I think this newer one is a different methodology.
Nice linkage. In September 2007, Economy.com did the same sort of analysis for CNN Money. In the September 2007 report, my market was one of the worst, in this November 2007 report, it is now one of the least-worst.
I think this newer one is a different methodology.
03-04-2008, 11:46 AM
#1024
Moderator Alumnus
Efforts by both government and private-sector entities to reduce unnecessary foreclosures are helping, but more can, and should, be done,'' Bernanke said in a speech to bankers in Orlando, Florida, today. "Principal reductions that restore some equity for the homeowner may be a relatively more effective means of avoiding delinquency and foreclosure.''
Bernanke's call goes beyond the stance of the Bush administration and previous Fed comments. By comparison, the central bank's Feb. 27 report to Congress called for lenders to "pursue prudent loan workouts'' through means such as modifying mortgage terms and deferring payments.
The Fed chief highlighted the threat posed by home values falling below mortgage balances, something Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson played down yesterday. Bernanke said the "recent surge'' in delinquencies has been "closely linked'' to the slide of home equity.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...ASN48&refer=us
Bernanke's call goes beyond the stance of the Bush administration and previous Fed comments. By comparison, the central bank's Feb. 27 report to Congress called for lenders to "pursue prudent loan workouts'' through means such as modifying mortgage terms and deferring payments.
The Fed chief highlighted the threat posed by home values falling below mortgage balances, something Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson played down yesterday. Bernanke said the "recent surge'' in delinquencies has been "closely linked'' to the slide of home equity.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...ASN48&refer=us
03-04-2008, 04:47 PM
#1025
I feel the need...
The road to hell is paved with good intentions...
Who knew Uncle Ben was a closet socialist and wants to steal from the rich to give to teh poor.
So does this mean
is backing away from his prediction in the first few pages of this thread? 
:
03-04-2008, 05:40 PM
#1026
Moderator Alumnus
Originally Posted by Fibonacci
So does this mean is backing away from his prediction in the first few pages of this thread? :
is backing away from his prediction in the first few pages of this thread? :Nope. I am just worried that one of these sacks of money will hit me on the head...
In the end, most people will be just fine, those who bought at the peak or cashed out all their equity will feel the pain though.
03-04-2008, 05:44 PM
#1027
I feel the need...
Originally Posted by Silver™
Nope. I am just worried that one of these sacks of money will hit me on the head...
Gosh, it sure would be cool if one of Helicopter Ben's sacks of free cash would land in my vicinity!
03-05-2008, 11:46 AM
#1028
The sizzle in the Steak
Originally Posted by Silver™
Efforts by both government and private-sector entities to reduce unnecessary foreclosures are helping, but more can, and should, be done,'' Bernanke said in a speech to bankers in Orlando, Florida, today. "Principal reductions that restore some equity for the homeowner may be a relatively more effective means of avoiding delinquency and foreclosure.''
Ben is out of his gord.
03-05-2008, 07:19 PM
#1029
I feel the need...
Reviving the Real Estate Market
Why lower home prices are the only true solution to the housing collapse.
http://www.newsweek.com/id/118914
"Decline in Home Prices Accelerates"
—Page One headline, the Wall Street Journal, Feb. 27
Gloom. Doom. Calamity. Home prices are tumbling. We're bombarded by somber reports. But wait—this is actually good news, because lower home prices are the only real solution to the housing collapse. The sooner prices fall the better. The longer the adjustment takes, the longer the housing slump (weak sales, low construction, high numbers of unsold homes) will last.
It's elementary economics. Pretend that houses are apples. We have 1,000 apples, priced at $1 each. They don't sell. We can either keep the price at $1 and watch the apples rot or cut the price until people buy. Housing is no different.
Even many economists—who should know better—describe the present situation as an oversupply of unsold homes. True, there is about 10 months' supply of existing homes, as opposed to four months a few years ago. But the real problem is insufficient demand. There aren't more homes than there are Americans who want homes; that would be a true surplus. There's so much supply because many prospective customers can't buy at today's prices.....
—Page One headline, the Wall Street Journal, Feb. 27
Gloom. Doom. Calamity. Home prices are tumbling. We're bombarded by somber reports. But wait—this is actually good news, because lower home prices are the only real solution to the housing collapse. The sooner prices fall the better. The longer the adjustment takes, the longer the housing slump (weak sales, low construction, high numbers of unsold homes) will last.
It's elementary economics. Pretend that houses are apples. We have 1,000 apples, priced at $1 each. They don't sell. We can either keep the price at $1 and watch the apples rot or cut the price until people buy. Housing is no different.
Even many economists—who should know better—describe the present situation as an oversupply of unsold homes. True, there is about 10 months' supply of existing homes, as opposed to four months a few years ago. But the real problem is insufficient demand. There aren't more homes than there are Americans who want homes; that would be a true surplus. There's so much supply because many prospective customers can't buy at today's prices.....
03-06-2008, 05:11 PM
#1030
I feel the need...
U.S. Two-Year Rate Swap Spread Widens to Record High
Originally Posted by AdamNJ
Does anyone here know why the hell the mortgage rate from my bank jumped to 6.5% today from the 6% it was yesterday?
I haven't found any news justifying that jump.
I haven't found any news justifying that jump.
he cost to exchange fixed for floating interest-rate payments for two years climbed to a record high amid rising bank borrowing costs and speculation that credit-market losses will deepen.
The spread between the rate on a two-year interest-rate swap, used to hedge against and speculate on interest-rate swings, and Treasury note yields, reached 111.10 basis points, the largest since at least November 1988, when Bloomberg began compiling data. The difference was 109.75 basis points at 1:18 p.m. in New York, from 107.2 basis points yesterday.
Treasury yields have tumbled to four-year lows, while the extra yield investors demand to own agency mortgage-backed securities has increased to 22-year highs as banks step up margin calls and concerns mounts that the Federal Reserve may be unable to prevent the credit slump from deepening. Spreads have widened even after the central bank reduced borrowing costs in January by the quickest pace in seven years.
``Traders are putting their phone down and backing slowly away from their desk as these markets just become completely unhinged,'' said William O'Donnell, head of U.S. government bond strategy at UBS Securities LLC in Stamford, Connecticut. ``The problem is that monetary policy acts with a lag.''
The widening spreads prompted speculation the government may step in to support mortgage-backed debt guaranteed by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, briefly narrowing the two-year gap to 100.44 basis points. A Treasury spokesperson, speaking on condition of anonymity, said the conjecture wasn't true.
Outstanding agency mortgage securities --which are guaranteed by government-chartered Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac or federal agency Ginnie Mae -- total almost $4.5 trillion, about the same size as the U.S. Treasury market.....
The spread between the rate on a two-year interest-rate swap, used to hedge against and speculate on interest-rate swings, and Treasury note yields, reached 111.10 basis points, the largest since at least November 1988, when Bloomberg began compiling data. The difference was 109.75 basis points at 1:18 p.m. in New York, from 107.2 basis points yesterday.
Treasury yields have tumbled to four-year lows, while the extra yield investors demand to own agency mortgage-backed securities has increased to 22-year highs as banks step up margin calls and concerns mounts that the Federal Reserve may be unable to prevent the credit slump from deepening. Spreads have widened even after the central bank reduced borrowing costs in January by the quickest pace in seven years.
``Traders are putting their phone down and backing slowly away from their desk as these markets just become completely unhinged,'' said William O'Donnell, head of U.S. government bond strategy at UBS Securities LLC in Stamford, Connecticut. ``The problem is that monetary policy acts with a lag.''
The widening spreads prompted speculation the government may step in to support mortgage-backed debt guaranteed by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, briefly narrowing the two-year gap to 100.44 basis points. A Treasury spokesperson, speaking on condition of anonymity, said the conjecture wasn't true.
Outstanding agency mortgage securities --which are guaranteed by government-chartered Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac or federal agency Ginnie Mae -- total almost $4.5 trillion, about the same size as the U.S. Treasury market.....
03-10-2008, 07:01 PM
#1031
I feel the need...
Home Market Won't Be Buoyed by New Mortgage Caps
If you are buying or refinancing a U.S. home with an above-average price tag, you may be able to breathe easier and secure a guaranteed mortgage.
As much as homeowners and buyers will welcome these changes in California, the Northeast and other areas where even small homes start at $500,000, it's unlikely to revive the most troubled markets.
Due to the severe contraction of credit markets, banks drastically cut back their offerings of what were known as ``jumbo'' loans, and federal mortgage insurance agencies such as the Federal Housing Administration, or FHA, would guarantee no more than $362,790.
Under the new ``maximum conforming limits,'' which were required under the $168 billion Congressional Economic Stimulus Act passed last month, the guarantee ceiling on single-family home loans by the FHA, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac ranges no higher than $729,750 in the continental U.S.
Don't confuse this with a large-scale borrower bailout. Vast areas between the coasts won't fare as well.....
As much as homeowners and buyers will welcome these changes in California, the Northeast and other areas where even small homes start at $500,000, it's unlikely to revive the most troubled markets.
Due to the severe contraction of credit markets, banks drastically cut back their offerings of what were known as ``jumbo'' loans, and federal mortgage insurance agencies such as the Federal Housing Administration, or FHA, would guarantee no more than $362,790.
Under the new ``maximum conforming limits,'' which were required under the $168 billion Congressional Economic Stimulus Act passed last month, the guarantee ceiling on single-family home loans by the FHA, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac ranges no higher than $729,750 in the continental U.S.
Don't confuse this with a large-scale borrower bailout. Vast areas between the coasts won't fare as well.....
03-12-2008, 04:00 PM
#1033
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Originally Posted by Silver™
^^^
It will help out here. Most starter homes were above the old cap and no one could get a mortgage.
It will help out here. Most starter homes were above the old cap and no one could get a mortgage.
ditto, 2 bedroom condos are up in that price level here... let alone townhouse/house
will certainly help rather than being penalized for having a high COL
Someday I would love to see taxes (at least for living expenses), and other gov't fees, etc take cost of living into account. GSA already does analysis and gov't employees are paid and per diem. Why can't that be applied to other things.
80% of the country probably doesn't need this. But a handful of major cities will be the major users.
no source but 37% of all statistics are made up anyway...
03-17-2008, 06:06 PM
#1034
I feel the need...
Regulations Are at the Root of U.S. Housing Mess
The smell of fear permeates Washington.
With the U.S. economy on the ropes and esteemed financial institutions such as Bear Stearns Cos. and the Carlyle Group suffering major losses, policy makers are outdoing one another in the search for creative intensive care. The irony is that the latest research suggests that government policy makers started this mess in the first place.
Mr. Hyde put us in the hospital. Dr. Jekyll has met us at the operating table.
Policies in play, from the House of Representatives bill to allow municipalities to purchase real estate to the Federal Reserve's letting financial institutions swap mortgages for Treasuries, are clearly built on the assumption that the boom and bust in housing prices are to blame for our misery.
But these policies attack a symptom. Before one can judge whether they will be effective, we need to diagnose the disease. Hardly anyone has taken that step.
The prevailing story appears to be that the housing industry has experienced a ``bubble,'' or an irrational price swing resulting from the misbehavior of greedy home buyers and the lunacy of companies willing to lend to them using risky adjustable-rate subprime mortgages.
Without entering the technical domain, it is worth observing that this explanation is a tremendous convenience for politicians. A bubble is the explanation of a price swing that remains when all others have been rejected.....
With the U.S. economy on the ropes and esteemed financial institutions such as Bear Stearns Cos. and the Carlyle Group suffering major losses, policy makers are outdoing one another in the search for creative intensive care. The irony is that the latest research suggests that government policy makers started this mess in the first place.
Mr. Hyde put us in the hospital. Dr. Jekyll has met us at the operating table.
Policies in play, from the House of Representatives bill to allow municipalities to purchase real estate to the Federal Reserve's letting financial institutions swap mortgages for Treasuries, are clearly built on the assumption that the boom and bust in housing prices are to blame for our misery.
But these policies attack a symptom. Before one can judge whether they will be effective, we need to diagnose the disease. Hardly anyone has taken that step.
The prevailing story appears to be that the housing industry has experienced a ``bubble,'' or an irrational price swing resulting from the misbehavior of greedy home buyers and the lunacy of companies willing to lend to them using risky adjustable-rate subprime mortgages.
Without entering the technical domain, it is worth observing that this explanation is a tremendous convenience for politicians. A bubble is the explanation of a price swing that remains when all others have been rejected.....
03-27-2008, 05:12 AM
#1035
I feel the need...
Be It Ever So Illogical: Homeowners Who Won’t Cut the Price
In 2005, Randolph Harrison and his wife, Pamela, decided to move north from Silicon Valley, over the Golden Gate Bridge into wooded Marin County to be closer to her new job. They found a six-bedroom house that seemed ideal except for the price, $1.875 million. The current owner, they knew, had bought the house a year earlier for $1.475 million.
So the couple, who both have finance jobs in the technology industry, told their real estate agent that they wanted to offer $1.575 million. He told them that the owner wouldn’t even listen to such a low bid. The owner’s attitude was “we’ll just stay here until we sell it for 1.875,” the agent said, “even if it takes years.”
Three years ago, when the real estate bubble was still inflating, this sort of standoff was the exception. It’s the norm today. Overall home sales have fallen a remarkable 33 percent since the summer of 2005. Home prices, on the other hand, continued to rise until 2006 and are now only 5 to 10 percent below where they were in mid-2005, according to various measures.
In most other areas of the economy, this combination of plummeting sales and stable prices would not happen. When demand for airline tickets drops, the airlines cut their prices until they have sold their seats. When stocks become less appealing, share prices fall, sometimes sharply.
Just try to imagine stock prices staying roughly flat over a three-year period while sales volumes sank because investors considered the market overvalued. Bear Stearns is still worth $150 a share, and I’m not selling until someone pays me $150!
Real estate, though, is different. For both economic and psychological reasons, there is no asset more conducive to hopeful overvaluation.....
So the couple, who both have finance jobs in the technology industry, told their real estate agent that they wanted to offer $1.575 million. He told them that the owner wouldn’t even listen to such a low bid. The owner’s attitude was “we’ll just stay here until we sell it for 1.875,” the agent said, “even if it takes years.”
Three years ago, when the real estate bubble was still inflating, this sort of standoff was the exception. It’s the norm today. Overall home sales have fallen a remarkable 33 percent since the summer of 2005. Home prices, on the other hand, continued to rise until 2006 and are now only 5 to 10 percent below where they were in mid-2005, according to various measures.
In most other areas of the economy, this combination of plummeting sales and stable prices would not happen. When demand for airline tickets drops, the airlines cut their prices until they have sold their seats. When stocks become less appealing, share prices fall, sometimes sharply.
Just try to imagine stock prices staying roughly flat over a three-year period while sales volumes sank because investors considered the market overvalued. Bear Stearns is still worth $150 a share, and I’m not selling until someone pays me $150!
Real estate, though, is different. For both economic and psychological reasons, there is no asset more conducive to hopeful overvaluation.....
03-27-2008, 08:42 AM
#1036
Houses Won't Depreciate?
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It is very unfortunate. I am able to make my payments, but I dislike the fact that my equity is being eroded faster than the tanking dollar. If I was planning on moving on the short term, I would've rented instead, and avoid this silent robber from taking money from my wallet every single day.
On top of that, raising tax bills. Although they are a good tax shield, I am no longer able to give out money to charity and other non-profit organizations.
The good thing, I am planning to stay in my current house for another 5 years, unless my wife starts working.
My mortgage is fixed for the next 29 years. I don't even wanna think how does if feel to be on an ARM mortgage tied to plummeting home values.
On top of that, raising tax bills. Although they are a good tax shield, I am no longer able to give out money to charity and other non-profit organizations.
The good thing, I am planning to stay in my current house for another 5 years, unless my wife starts working.
My mortgage is fixed for the next 29 years. I don't even wanna think how does if feel to be on an ARM mortgage tied to plummeting home values.
04-05-2008, 07:57 PM
#1037
I feel the need...
Lenders Swamped By Foreclosures Let Homeowners Stay
Banks are so overwhelmed by the U.S. housing crisis they've started to look the other way when homeowners stop paying their mortgages.
The number of borrowers at least 90 days late on their home loans rose to 3.6 percent at the end of December, the highest in at least five years, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association in Washington. That figure, for the first time, is almost double the 2 percent who have been foreclosed on.
Lenders who allow owners to stay in their homes are distorting the record foreclosure rate and delaying the worst of the housing decline, said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Economy.com, a unit of New York-based Moody's Corp. These borrowers will eventually push the number of delinquencies even higher and send more homes onto an already glutted market.
``We don't have a sense of the magnitude of what's really going on because the whole process is being delayed,'' Zandi said in an interview. ``Looking at the data, we see the problems, but they are probably measurably greater than we think.''
Lenders took an average of 61 days to foreclose on a property last year, up from 37 days in the year earlier, according to RealtyTrac Inc., a foreclosure database in Irvine, California. Sales of foreclosed homes rose 4.4 percent last year at the same time the supply of such homes more than doubled, according to LoanPerformance First American CoreLogic Inc., a real estate data company based in San Francisco.
Reluctant Banks
``Some people stay in their houses until someone comes to kick them out,'' said Angel Gutierrez, owner of Dallas-based Metro Lending, which buys distressed mortgage debt. ``Sometimes no one comes to kick them out.''
Banks are reluctant to foreclose on homeowners for a variety of reasons that include the cost, said Peter Zalewski, real estate broker and owner of Condo Vultures Realty LLC, a property consulting firm in Bal Harbour, Florida.
Legal fees and maintaining a vacant property while paying the mortgage, insurance and taxes can add up to as much as 15 percent of the value of the home, and it may take months for the foreclosure to work through the legal system, he said.
``The end result is taking back a property that the bank will have to manage, rent out and or sell,'' Zalewski said.
In many cases, lenders also have to foot the bill for fixing up vacant homes that have been vandalized......
The number of borrowers at least 90 days late on their home loans rose to 3.6 percent at the end of December, the highest in at least five years, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association in Washington. That figure, for the first time, is almost double the 2 percent who have been foreclosed on.
Lenders who allow owners to stay in their homes are distorting the record foreclosure rate and delaying the worst of the housing decline, said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Economy.com, a unit of New York-based Moody's Corp. These borrowers will eventually push the number of delinquencies even higher and send more homes onto an already glutted market.
``We don't have a sense of the magnitude of what's really going on because the whole process is being delayed,'' Zandi said in an interview. ``Looking at the data, we see the problems, but they are probably measurably greater than we think.''
Lenders took an average of 61 days to foreclose on a property last year, up from 37 days in the year earlier, according to RealtyTrac Inc., a foreclosure database in Irvine, California. Sales of foreclosed homes rose 4.4 percent last year at the same time the supply of such homes more than doubled, according to LoanPerformance First American CoreLogic Inc., a real estate data company based in San Francisco.
Reluctant Banks
``Some people stay in their houses until someone comes to kick them out,'' said Angel Gutierrez, owner of Dallas-based Metro Lending, which buys distressed mortgage debt. ``Sometimes no one comes to kick them out.''
Banks are reluctant to foreclose on homeowners for a variety of reasons that include the cost, said Peter Zalewski, real estate broker and owner of Condo Vultures Realty LLC, a property consulting firm in Bal Harbour, Florida.
Legal fees and maintaining a vacant property while paying the mortgage, insurance and taxes can add up to as much as 15 percent of the value of the home, and it may take months for the foreclosure to work through the legal system, he said.
``The end result is taking back a property that the bank will have to manage, rent out and or sell,'' Zalewski said.
In many cases, lenders also have to foot the bill for fixing up vacant homes that have been vandalized......
04-07-2008, 03:57 PM
#1038
I feel the need...
House Lust Isn't to Blame for U.S. Property Funk
Did McMansion fever cause the U.S. housing bust?
Now that the home crisis finger-pointing season is in full swing, it's a good time to take a look at how ``house lust,'' as author Daniel McGinn calls it, affected the property market.
McGinn, who recently published a book on the topic, points to a convergence of personal economics and good old-fashioned status-seeking as one of the root causes of the crisis. More likely, it went much deeper, as a combination of the American Dream and a mass amnesia of economic reality took hold.
Identifying ``primary drivers'' for what caused house lust, McGinn cites the revolution in home finance. Many homebuyers, whose only qualification for a mortgage was a human pulse, qualified for large loans. As rates dropped in the last decade, homeowners also operated like ``mini-CFOs, deciding just how much of their wealth to keep in their houses,'' he writes.
Millions figured if home prices were going to keep climbing at double-digit levels, whatever they pulled out of their homes in refinancing or home-equity loans would be replaced by appreciation.
As we know now, that didn't happen and far too many homeowners ended up with more debt and almost no equity.
Those that took the equity-gain bet with little or no down payment are looking at a losing hand as home prices and sales continue to fall in most U.S. markets. Even Manhattan apartment sales, which were until recently immune from the slump, dipped 34 percent in the first quarter -- the most in 18 years.....
Now that the home crisis finger-pointing season is in full swing, it's a good time to take a look at how ``house lust,'' as author Daniel McGinn calls it, affected the property market.
McGinn, who recently published a book on the topic, points to a convergence of personal economics and good old-fashioned status-seeking as one of the root causes of the crisis. More likely, it went much deeper, as a combination of the American Dream and a mass amnesia of economic reality took hold.
Identifying ``primary drivers'' for what caused house lust, McGinn cites the revolution in home finance. Many homebuyers, whose only qualification for a mortgage was a human pulse, qualified for large loans. As rates dropped in the last decade, homeowners also operated like ``mini-CFOs, deciding just how much of their wealth to keep in their houses,'' he writes.
Millions figured if home prices were going to keep climbing at double-digit levels, whatever they pulled out of their homes in refinancing or home-equity loans would be replaced by appreciation.
As we know now, that didn't happen and far too many homeowners ended up with more debt and almost no equity.
Those that took the equity-gain bet with little or no down payment are looking at a losing hand as home prices and sales continue to fall in most U.S. markets. Even Manhattan apartment sales, which were until recently immune from the slump, dipped 34 percent in the first quarter -- the most in 18 years.....
Don't fake the funk on a nasty dunk! :wink:
04-14-2008, 12:44 PM
#1039
Moderator Alumnus
The collapse of the housing bubble in the United States is mutating into a global phenomenon, with real estate prices down from the Irish countryside and the Spanish coast to Baltic seaports and even in parts of India.
This synchronized global slowdown, which has become increasingly stark in recent months, is hobbling economic growth worldwide, affecting not just homes, but also jobs.
In Ireland, Spain, Britain and elsewhere, housing markets that soared over the past decade are falling back to earth. Experts predict that some countries, like Ireland, will face an even more wrenching adjustment than the United States, with the possibility that the downturn could turn into wholesale collapse.
To some extent, the world's problems are a result of American contagion. As home financing and credit tighten in response to the crisis that began in the U.S. subprime market, analysts worry that other countries could suffer the mortgage defaults and foreclosures that have afflicted California, Florida and other states.
Citing the far-flung reverberations from the American housing bust and credit squeeze, the International Monetary Fund cut its forecast Wednesday for global economic growth this year and warned that the malaise could extend into 2009.
"The problems in the U.S. are being transmitted to Europe," said Michael Ball, professor of urban and property economics at the University of Reading in England, who studies housing prices. "What's happening now is an awful lot more grief than we expected."
For countries like Ireland, where prices were even more inflated than in the United States, it has been a painful education, as homeowners learn the American vocabulary of misery.
"We know we're already in negative equity," said Emma Linnane, a 31-year-old university administrator. She bought a cozy, one-bedroom apartment in the Dublin suburbs with her fiancé, Paul Colgan, in May 2006, at the peak of the market. They paid €365,000, or $575,000 - at least $100,000 more than it would fetch today.
"I sometimes get shivers thinking about it," Linnane said, "but I'll let the reality hit me when I go to sell it."
That reality is spreading. Once-sizzling housing markets in Eastern Europe are cooling rapidly, as nervous West Europeans stop buying investment properties in Warsaw, Estonia and other former real estate Klondikes.
Even further east, in India and southern China, prices are no longer climbing. With stock markets down sharply after reaching heady levels, people do not have as much cash to plow into property. Sales of apartments in Hong Kong, a recently hyperactive market, have slowed, with prices for mass-market flats starting to drop.
In New Delhi and other parts of northern India, prices have fallen 20 percent over the past year. Sanjay Dutt, an executive director in the Mumbai office of Cushman & Wakefield, the real estate firm, described it as an erosion of confidence.
Much of the retrenchment can be attributed to the basic laws of gravity: What goes up must come down. With low interest rates helping to inflate housing bubbles in many countries, economists said, the confluence of falling prices was predictable, if unsettling.
http://www.iht.com/articles/2008/04/...ss/housing.php (full article)
This synchronized global slowdown, which has become increasingly stark in recent months, is hobbling economic growth worldwide, affecting not just homes, but also jobs.
In Ireland, Spain, Britain and elsewhere, housing markets that soared over the past decade are falling back to earth. Experts predict that some countries, like Ireland, will face an even more wrenching adjustment than the United States, with the possibility that the downturn could turn into wholesale collapse.
To some extent, the world's problems are a result of American contagion. As home financing and credit tighten in response to the crisis that began in the U.S. subprime market, analysts worry that other countries could suffer the mortgage defaults and foreclosures that have afflicted California, Florida and other states.
Citing the far-flung reverberations from the American housing bust and credit squeeze, the International Monetary Fund cut its forecast Wednesday for global economic growth this year and warned that the malaise could extend into 2009.
"The problems in the U.S. are being transmitted to Europe," said Michael Ball, professor of urban and property economics at the University of Reading in England, who studies housing prices. "What's happening now is an awful lot more grief than we expected."
For countries like Ireland, where prices were even more inflated than in the United States, it has been a painful education, as homeowners learn the American vocabulary of misery.
"We know we're already in negative equity," said Emma Linnane, a 31-year-old university administrator. She bought a cozy, one-bedroom apartment in the Dublin suburbs with her fiancé, Paul Colgan, in May 2006, at the peak of the market. They paid €365,000, or $575,000 - at least $100,000 more than it would fetch today.
"I sometimes get shivers thinking about it," Linnane said, "but I'll let the reality hit me when I go to sell it."
That reality is spreading. Once-sizzling housing markets in Eastern Europe are cooling rapidly, as nervous West Europeans stop buying investment properties in Warsaw, Estonia and other former real estate Klondikes.
Even further east, in India and southern China, prices are no longer climbing. With stock markets down sharply after reaching heady levels, people do not have as much cash to plow into property. Sales of apartments in Hong Kong, a recently hyperactive market, have slowed, with prices for mass-market flats starting to drop.
In New Delhi and other parts of northern India, prices have fallen 20 percent over the past year. Sanjay Dutt, an executive director in the Mumbai office of Cushman & Wakefield, the real estate firm, described it as an erosion of confidence.
Much of the retrenchment can be attributed to the basic laws of gravity: What goes up must come down. With low interest rates helping to inflate housing bubbles in many countries, economists said, the confluence of falling prices was predictable, if unsettling.
http://www.iht.com/articles/2008/04/...ss/housing.php (full article)