Is the DOW going to burst at some point?
08-24-2015 | 02:30 PM
#125
Safety Car
Joined: Jul 2007
Posts: 4,845
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Reminds me of this: Gentleman's Bet for Monday, 8/8/11 - AcuraZine Community
I had the thought of bumping it over the weekend, but wasn't convinced it would be THIS dramatic. Was just thinking another 300-point fall.
I had the thought of bumping it over the weekend, but wasn't convinced it would be THIS dramatic. Was just thinking another 300-point fall.
Let's see what happens here tomorrow....
08-24-2015 | 09:56 PM
#129
Drifting
Joined: May 2006
Posts: 2,499
Likes: 221
From: Carlsbad, CA
Dow 15,871.3
Gold: 1154.40
Dow/Gold: 13.74
The Regan-created Plunge Protection team likely helped the indices recover today so losses were about 1/2 what they were the first 10 minutes of trading. The 15,800 support level held on a closing basis but was tested intraday so it might not be so good if there is another panic- it will definitely get tested again in the coming weeks. In looking at a chart, I think 14,750 is the next significant support level.
I noticed futures are up 300+ points for a Tuesday open so perhaps tomorrow will be an up day. I also noticed that gold is outperforming the Dow and gained .5 in the Dow/Gold ratio today- even though it was down $5 for the day.
Gold: 1154.40
Dow/Gold: 13.74
The Regan-created Plunge Protection team likely helped the indices recover today so losses were about 1/2 what they were the first 10 minutes of trading. The 15,800 support level held on a closing basis but was tested intraday so it might not be so good if there is another panic- it will definitely get tested again in the coming weeks. In looking at a chart, I think 14,750 is the next significant support level.
I noticed futures are up 300+ points for a Tuesday open so perhaps tomorrow will be an up day. I also noticed that gold is outperforming the Dow and gained .5 in the Dow/Gold ratio today- even though it was down $5 for the day.
08-24-2015 | 10:02 PM
#130
_
Joined: Nov 2006
Posts: 18,692
Likes: 3,097
Here's What Usually Happens to Markets After the S&P 500 Drops 5Percent in a Week - Bloomberg Business
Here's What Usually Happens to Markets After the S&P 500 Drops 5 Percent in a Week
Let's look at history
Last week was a brutal one for the Standard & Poor's 500 index, with stocks tumbling more than 5 percent for the first time since 2011. The bloodbath is continuing today.
As Bespoke Investment Group points out, a weekly drop of more than 5 percent has only happened 28 other times since 1980. If you're trying to decide what to do this week, maybe Bespoke's chart will help. It gives you a look at what happened in the S&P 500 in the weeks following a 5 percent decline. On average, the market is relatively flat the next week, up 1.65 percent over the next four weeks, and up close to 5 percent over the next 12 weeks.
Also important to note is that 60 percent of the time, the index moves higher the following week.
Some of the standout years include huge drawdowns of more than 20 percent over the next 12 weeks in 1987 and 2008. On the opposite side of the spectrum, there were massive turnarounds in 1998 and 2009.
Let's look at history
Last week was a brutal one for the Standard & Poor's 500 index, with stocks tumbling more than 5 percent for the first time since 2011. The bloodbath is continuing today.
As Bespoke Investment Group points out, a weekly drop of more than 5 percent has only happened 28 other times since 1980. If you're trying to decide what to do this week, maybe Bespoke's chart will help. It gives you a look at what happened in the S&P 500 in the weeks following a 5 percent decline. On average, the market is relatively flat the next week, up 1.65 percent over the next four weeks, and up close to 5 percent over the next 12 weeks.
Also important to note is that 60 percent of the time, the index moves higher the following week.
Some of the standout years include huge drawdowns of more than 20 percent over the next 12 weeks in 1987 and 2008. On the opposite side of the spectrum, there were massive turnarounds in 1998 and 2009.
08-24-2015 | 10:24 PM
#131
Race Director
Joined: Dec 2003
Posts: 12,474
Likes: 1,795
From: MAGA country
Don?t Panic Over Dow?s 1,089 Plunge and Definitely Don't Sell | Fox Business
For the year so far:
Dow down 11%
S&P down 8%
Nasdaq down 4.5%
Not great, but certainly not a terrifying year, so far...
For the year so far:
Dow down 11%
S&P down 8%
Nasdaq down 4.5%
Not great, but certainly not a terrifying year, so far...
Last edited by nfnsquared; 08-24-2015 at 10:31 PM.
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Mizouse (08-25-2015)
08-25-2015 | 02:08 PM
#135
Race Director
Joined: Dec 2003
Posts: 12,474
Likes: 1,795
From: MAGA country
Lost a lot more than that on paper. Am I worried? Nope. Again, just a blip on the long range radar.
Yeah, China tanked again, but the rest of Asia didn't, plus Europe was up. All good signs for the results we got today.. Tomorrow is a whole new day
Yeah, China tanked again, but the rest of Asia didn't, plus Europe was up. All good signs for the results we got today.. Tomorrow is a whole new day
08-25-2015 | 02:57 PM
#138
Az User
Joined: Feb 2005
Posts: 12,935
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From: parts unknown
08-25-2015 | 05:38 PM
#143
Three Wheelin'
Joined: Mar 2013
Posts: 1,766
Likes: 609
From: North Carolina
I think it all depends on what the fed does. If they raise rates like they've been saying they plan on doing.... it'll go down. However, if they come out and say after all they aren't going to raise rates it should bounce back, and especially if they do QE4.
08-25-2015 | 08:31 PM
#144
Drifting
Joined: May 2006
Posts: 2,499
Likes: 221
From: Carlsbad, CA
Dow 15,666.4
Gold: 1140
Dow/Gold: 13.74
Another down day and this one was bloody because it bounced up on the open. The 15,800 support level referenced in last posting was broken so now the 14,750 is next fire wall.
I see the Dow/Gold ratio hung steady.
Gold: 1140
Dow/Gold: 13.74
Another down day and this one was bloody because it bounced up on the open. The 15,800 support level referenced in last posting was broken so now the 14,750 is next fire wall.
I see the Dow/Gold ratio hung steady.
08-25-2015 | 11:18 PM
#147
Drifting
Joined: May 2006
Posts: 2,499
Likes: 221
From: Carlsbad, CA
Peter Schiff described things pretty well about the market turmoil. The turmoil is caused by a game of 'chicken' between the FED and the market. The FED is pretending that it intends to raise rates and the market is reacting to the 'fact' that the FED will actually raise rates. It will take the FED recanting from its stance to cause this turmoil to slow or end- otherwise the market will adjust to what the indices really should be with normal interest rates.
I had to review my 2008 Stock Trader's Almanac to see my notes for September/October of that year and they were brutal:
week ending 9/26/08 Dow down -245.31 for week
week ending 10/3/08 Dow down -814.88 for week
week ending 10/10/08 Dow down -1879.19 for week
There is a lot more downside if this game of chicken continues until 9/17. The last 6 trading days have averaged -300 points/day. If you take the 15 trading days until 9/17 and apply that average we get down to Dow 11,166. Once the FED announces that 'market conditions' will delay the rate hike, I would expect a mini rally to start to stop the bleeding.
Essentially all the gains since 2009 could be erased- meaning the Dow could get to 10,000 or even less if 2008 lows get revisited.
I had to review my 2008 Stock Trader's Almanac to see my notes for September/October of that year and they were brutal:
week ending 9/26/08 Dow down -245.31 for week
week ending 10/3/08 Dow down -814.88 for week
week ending 10/10/08 Dow down -1879.19 for week
There is a lot more downside if this game of chicken continues until 9/17. The last 6 trading days have averaged -300 points/day. If you take the 15 trading days until 9/17 and apply that average we get down to Dow 11,166. Once the FED announces that 'market conditions' will delay the rate hike, I would expect a mini rally to start to stop the bleeding.
Essentially all the gains since 2009 could be erased- meaning the Dow could get to 10,000 or even less if 2008 lows get revisited.
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Mizouse (08-26-2015)
08-26-2015 | 01:57 PM
#154
Moderator
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From: Not Las Vegas (SF Bay Area)
08-26-2015 | 09:39 PM
#156
Race Director
Joined: Dec 2003
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From: MAGA country
Well, imagine that: The Fed blinked and the market takes off...
Hope it holds, I dumped all my free cash into the market 2 days ago. I have $12.45 in my checking account until tomorrow
Asia is up ~2.3% and US futures are all green. We might be good for another month... or we might not
Hope it holds, I dumped all my free cash into the market 2 days ago. I have $12.45 in my checking account until tomorrow
Asia is up ~2.3% and US futures are all green. We might be good for another month... or we might not
08-26-2015 | 09:45 PM
#157
Drifting
Joined: May 2006
Posts: 2,499
Likes: 221
From: Carlsbad, CA
Go Bill Dudley! He did his job saying that a 'liftoff' of rates is less compelling now and perhaps the markets liked this news. The statement was pretty nebulous but did the trick along with the durable goods report being up 2%
That may have done the trick for stopping the hemorrhaging of the U.S. markets. Today essentially erased 1/3 of the losses this last week, so there is still 2/3's to make up before I would start celebrating. I would be more optimistic if Thursday and Friday close strong- especially Friday.
That may have done the trick for stopping the hemorrhaging of the U.S. markets. Today essentially erased 1/3 of the losses this last week, so there is still 2/3's to make up before I would start celebrating. I would be more optimistic if Thursday and Friday close strong- especially Friday.
