Comparing the great depression of the 30's,
The peak was at 381.17 on Sep 29 1929, and hit its low of 41.22 on Jul 8 1932 - 1039 days later.
Just 10.8% of what it was at the peak.

In recent times, the peak was 14164.53 on Oct 9 2007.
On Friday last week, 507 days since the peak it was at 7062.93. 49.9% of the oct 2007 peak.

So I wondered where was the market 507 days after peak was in the great depression. It was at 171 on Jan 23 1931. That is 45% from 1929 peak.

Since i'm not even calculating averages and the variance is very small 45% vs 49.9% I think that the DJ will hit its low of 1531 (10.8% of oct 2007) on Friday the 13th of August 2010 (1039 days after peak).

Options investors are paying twice this decade’s average to protect against losses in U.S. stocks through 2011, signaling the bear market that already wiped out $10.4 trillion of equity value may last two more years.

“There’s a real panic in the markets, with some people wanting to buy long-term insurance at any price,” said Peter Sorrentino, who helps manage $16 billion, including $130 million in options at Huntington Asset Advisors Inc. in Cincinnati. “People have lost hope.”

Contracts to protect against a decline in the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index for two years cost $15,160 on the Chicago Board Options Exchange at the end of last week, compared with $6,875 in 2007, according to price-adjusted data compiled by Bloomberg. The current level shows traders expect the benchmark gauge for U.S. equities to fluctuate twice as much in the next two years as it has since 2000.

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said last week the economy is in a “severe contraction” that may continue to next year unless actions to save the financial system start working. The S&P 500 lost 53 percent since peaking in October 2007 while retreats in commodities and corporate bonds drove 920 hedge funds, or 9 percent of the total, out of business last year.....

Dow and S&P hit 12-year lows
Thursday March 5, 2009, 5:29 pm EST
Reuters - The Dow industrials and the S&P 500 slid to 12-year lows on Thursday as General Motors' warning of ...

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Stocks slid on Thursday with the Dow and S&P falling to 12-year lows as General Motors' warning of possible bankruptcy and concerns about the banking system's fate reinforced investors' reluctance to take on risk.

The previous session's rally proved fleeting as worries about the financial system's health hit bank stocks again and investors focused on the possibility that troubles in the finance arm of widely held General Electric could lead to a debt rating downgrade for the entire company.

GE's stock was down 0.5 percent at $6.66 after falling to its lowest since 1991 a day earlier. Uncertainty about the exposure of U.S. banks to GE remained a significant concern and the S&P financial index fell nearly 10 percent.

Shares of Citigroup, once the world's largest bank by market value, fell as low as 97 cents during the session, trading below $1 for the first time. Anxiety rose over whether the bank can be restored to health or whether it will have to be taken over by the government.

"The loss of confidence is pervasive. There isn't any magic bullet here that's going to save Citi or Bank of America. The only thing that might save them is if the government comes in and sponsors a bankruptcy," said John Schloegel, a vice president of Capital Cities Asset Management in Austin, Texas.

The Dow Jones industrial average fell 281.40 points, or 4.09 percent, to 6,594.44. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index lost 30.32 points, or 4.25 percent, to 682.55. The Nasdaq Composite Index dropped 54.15 points, or 4.00 percent, to 1,299.59.

General Motors shed 15.5 percent to $1.86 after its auditors raised "substantial doubt" about the automaker's viability if it fails to head off losses and stop burning through cash.

Investors worry that GM's collapse would send shock waves through the recession-hit U.S. economy, given that it is a major employer and buyer of supplies from auto parts makers.

NASDAQ AT 6-YEAR LOW

The Nasdaq closed at its lowest level since March 2003, a month remembered for the beginning of the Iraq war. Both the Dow and S&P 500 are down more than 24 percent for the year so far, with the broad S&P shedding 56 percent from 2007's all-time high. U.S. stocks have lost around $11 trillion in value since hitting all-time highs in October 2007.

Indexes more than gave back Wednesday's rally, which was spurred by news of a Chinese economic stimulus plan. But those hopes were dashed on Thursday morning when Premier Wen Jiabao, speaking to parliament, did not announce any expansion of China's stimulus package.

Moody's Investor Service said on Wednesday it may cut its ratings on Wells Fargo and Bank of America, helping drive Wells Fargo down 15.94 percent at $8.12 and pushing Bank of America down 11.7 percent at $3.17.

Citigroup's stock closed at $1.02, down 11 cents, or off 9.7 percent for the day in NYSE trading.

Exxon Mobil was the Dow's biggest drag, dropping 5.3 percent to $62.22 as U.S. front-month crude lost $1.77 to settle at $43.61 a barrel, pressured by deteriorating global economic prospects.

On the upside, shares of Wal-Mart added 2.6 percent to $49.75 after the world's largest retailer posted solid monthly sales and raised its annual dividend by 15 percent. Of the 30 Dow industrials, only two -- Wal-Mart and Pfizer -- finished higher. Pfizer gained 1.4 percent to $12.67 after Goldman Sachs reinstated coverage with a "buy" rating.

DIRE JOBS REPORT EXPECTED

Grim economic reports signaling more fallout from the recession added to the negative tone ahead of Friday's key non-farm payrolls report. Data is expected to show the economy shed 648,000 jobs in February, while the unemployment rate is expected to rise to a 25-year high of 7.9 percent, according to a Reuters poll of economists.

Indeed, the White House said that it doesn't expect to see good news out of the jobs report.

A report on Thursday showed new orders received by U.S. factories fell for a sixth straight month in January. The Mortgage Bankers Association said that one in every eight U.S. households with mortgages, a record share, ended 2008 behind on their payments or in foreclosure.

Trading was active on the New York Stock Exchange, with about 1.88 billion shares changing hands, above last year's estimated daily average of 1.49 billion, while on Nasdaq, about 2.34 billion shares traded, above last year's daily average of 2.28 billion.

Declining stocks outnumbered advancing ones on the NYSE by about 12 to 1, while on the Nasdaq, about six stocks fell for every one that rose.

IT FELT like death by a thousand cuts. Already this month has seen plenty to rattle stockmarkets, from dreadful economic news to the continuing bloodshed at American International Group, an insurer. Commodity firms were given a reprieve on March 4th by hopes of a big stimulus package in China—though all they got was reaffirmation of the country’s 8% growth target. Meanwhile, a new fear haunts the markets: the mounting number of firms slashing their dividends.

That banks and insurance companies will chop their payments is now understood, but the pain has spread. General Electric (GE) has cut its dividend for the first time in 71 years, Dow Chemical for the first time since 1912. In Europe previously reliable payers like Telecom Italia and Anglo-American, a mining firm, have reduced their payouts, and even BP has said it cannot increase its dividend at today’s oil prices. Income investors were left to ponder Eurotunnel, the operator of the rail link between France and Britain, which will pay the first dividend since its creation in 1986. Its $9m may buy a few tissues for those mourning the loss of $9 billion of annual payouts from GE alone.

Based on experience since the second world war, investors had cause to be more optimistic. Although stock prices and earnings move up and down violently, dividends have been more reliable, typically falling from the peak of a cycle to its trough by only one-tenth in real terms. Furthermore, the share of American earnings paid out as dividends has declined from a post-war peak of almost two-thirds to about one-third in 2007, with many firms preferring stock buybacks (which have now ground to a halt). That should have given companies a bigger buffer.....