Commodities to Continue to Disappoint Investors
01-20-2011, 12:34 AM
#81
Drifting
Silver- OK you're right on the index and yes I don't follow that one until now- the ticker is $GTX at stockcharts.com and it is described here: http://www.standardandpoors.com/indi...SD----SP------ in case anyone cares.
Oh yea, I'm an e-investor whose sole purpose is receiving pats on the back. Aren't predictions like I made a few posts ago something that you typically see e-investors do?
The final line on my Schedule D is all I really care about for investments. I make money being right and lose money being wrong. If my earlier predictions are wrong, I will most-likely lose money in 2011.
Oh yea, I'm an e-investor whose sole purpose is receiving pats on the back. Aren't predictions like I made a few posts ago something that you typically see e-investors do?
The final line on my Schedule D is all I really care about for investments. I make money being right and lose money being wrong. If my earlier predictions are wrong, I will most-likely lose money in 2011.
02-09-2011, 07:31 PM
#82
I feel the need...
Been tracking the downdraft for a while and was debating this furiously today with one of our commodity traders. I know there's supply overhang blah-blah, but the fact that everyone hates it makes me want to love it.
Be like Jesus baby, love the forlorn and forsaken!
02-09-2011, 10:54 PM
#83
Drifting
Racer, when should we step into the widowmaker trade, aka natgas? You seem to like to hop on momentum plays.
Been tracking the downdraft for a while and was debating this furiously today with one of our commodity traders. I know there's supply overhang blah-blah, but the fact that everyone hates it makes me want to love it.
Be like Jesus baby, love the forlorn and forsaken!
Been tracking the downdraft for a while and was debating this furiously today with one of our commodity traders. I know there's supply overhang blah-blah, but the fact that everyone hates it makes me want to love it.
Be like Jesus baby, love the forlorn and forsaken!
I think Natural Gas is a steal at these levels and should move up when oil goes higher too. It was promising seeing UNG up today when USO,XLE, and others were down- volume was also respectable for UNG as well.
Good luck- I think you should be happy with a purchase at these levels in a year's time, if not sooner. To tell you the truth, the market at these levels is starting to scare me a bit. I track Bullish-Percents for NYSE mostly and we're at day 103 of a bullish trend- that the longest I have ever tracked and starting to worry me a little on a reversal coming due.
05-13-2011, 03:56 PM
#84
Moderator Alumnus
Thread Starter
Global investors have tempered their optimism about the U.S. and world economies and plan to put more of their money in cash and less in commodities over the next six months, a Bloomberg survey found.
Almost 1 in 3 of those questioned say they will hold more cash, while 30 percent intend to reduce investments in commodities, according to a quarterly Bloomberg Global Poll of 1,263 investors, analysts and traders who are Bloomberg subscribers. Both results were the highest since the survey began asking the question last June.
A plurality -- 40 percent -- expects oil prices to fall in the next six months, the first time respondents felt that way since the inception of this poll in July 2009.
The “big stimulus game is over,” said Bill O’Connor, a poll participant and founder of Sagg Main Capital hedge fund in New York, in explaining why he’s moving money into cash as the Federal Reserve winds up its bond-buying program and U.S. lawmakers look to cut the budget.
Fewer than 4 in 10 of those surveyed described the U.S. and global economies as improving, down from about 50 percent who felt that way back in January. U.S. economic growth slowed to 1.8 percent in the first quarter of this year, down from 3.1 percent in the final three months of 2010. Home prices fell in more than three-quarters of U.S. cities in the first quarter of 2011, according to the National Association of Realtors.
The poll, conducted May 9-10, also found that investors’ ardor for stocks is cooling. Two in 5 intend to increase their exposure to equity markets over the next six months, down from almost 3 in 5 in the last poll in January. U.S. investors in particular have become less keen on stocks: Just 37 percent say they are increasing their exposure, down from 57 percent in the previous poll.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-0...obal-poll.html
Almost 1 in 3 of those questioned say they will hold more cash, while 30 percent intend to reduce investments in commodities, according to a quarterly Bloomberg Global Poll of 1,263 investors, analysts and traders who are Bloomberg subscribers. Both results were the highest since the survey began asking the question last June.
A plurality -- 40 percent -- expects oil prices to fall in the next six months, the first time respondents felt that way since the inception of this poll in July 2009.
The “big stimulus game is over,” said Bill O’Connor, a poll participant and founder of Sagg Main Capital hedge fund in New York, in explaining why he’s moving money into cash as the Federal Reserve winds up its bond-buying program and U.S. lawmakers look to cut the budget.
Fewer than 4 in 10 of those surveyed described the U.S. and global economies as improving, down from about 50 percent who felt that way back in January. U.S. economic growth slowed to 1.8 percent in the first quarter of this year, down from 3.1 percent in the final three months of 2010. Home prices fell in more than three-quarters of U.S. cities in the first quarter of 2011, according to the National Association of Realtors.
The poll, conducted May 9-10, also found that investors’ ardor for stocks is cooling. Two in 5 intend to increase their exposure to equity markets over the next six months, down from almost 3 in 5 in the last poll in January. U.S. investors in particular have become less keen on stocks: Just 37 percent say they are increasing their exposure, down from 57 percent in the previous poll.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-0...obal-poll.html
10-24-2011, 06:43 PM
#85
I feel the need...
Sprott Buys Energy With Commodities at Recession Valuation
By Whitney Kisling and Matt Walcoff
Oct. 24 (Bloomberg) -- Chemical, metal and agricultural companies around the world have fallen to valuations whose only precedent came in the last recession.
Commodity producers in the MSCI All-Country World Index lost 17 percent since June 30 and traded for 10.6 times reported income as of Oct. 21, cheaper than 96 percent of days since 1995, data compiled by Bloomberg show. In Canada, where stocks get more value from producers of fuels and minerals than any other major developed market, losses in energy shares are exceeding oil prices for the first time in 17 years....
Oct. 24 (Bloomberg) -- Chemical, metal and agricultural companies around the world have fallen to valuations whose only precedent came in the last recession.
Commodity producers in the MSCI All-Country World Index lost 17 percent since June 30 and traded for 10.6 times reported income as of Oct. 21, cheaper than 96 percent of days since 1995, data compiled by Bloomberg show. In Canada, where stocks get more value from producers of fuels and minerals than any other major developed market, losses in energy shares are exceeding oil prices for the first time in 17 years....
10-25-2011, 11:03 PM
#86
Drifting
Yes I think commodities are set to rumble for the next few months. Since February, I added 30% to existing Silver positions, new 100% position in oil, new 100% position in uranium, and sold all my Agriculture (DBA) positions. I have added 0% to UNG but may if the knife stops falling for a while- that has been a bummer hold for me. I'm looking to get back into DBA (30.81) in next month if the chart cleans up- support is at 28 so it could trickle down a little more.
I think the happenings in Europe now will probably help commodity prices- especially if they can't work out a reasonable bailout package. I'm factoring a 50% haircut on Greek debt which is huge for the banks and possibly money market funds.
I think the happenings in Europe now will probably help commodity prices- especially if they can't work out a reasonable bailout package. I'm factoring a 50% haircut on Greek debt which is huge for the banks and possibly money market funds.
02-12-2012, 08:39 AM
#87
I feel the need...
JEREMY GRANTHAM: We're Headed For A Disaster Of Biblical Proportions
In the past 200 years, the world population has exploded--just as Malthus predicted. What Malthus did not foresee was the discovery of oil and other natural resources, which have (temporarily) supported this population explosion. Those resources are now getting used up...
02-12-2012, 05:39 PM
#88
Drifting
Gold 2.5x higher (1 in 210 odds)
Oil 2.5x higher (1 in 160 odds)
Sugar 2.5x higher (1 in 160 odds)
Silver 3.7x higher (1 in 9300 odds- I'm guessing 2.5x would be lower odds but still higher than gold?)
Uranium 1.9x (1 in 35 odds)
I'm long in all these, but Sugar at the moment.
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