Baidu
#3
this one's too high risk for me (and I'm a very high risk guy). Lots of money could be made on it (lots was on friday), just don't want to be holding when/if it bursts.
Low float & big name = lots of volatility
Low float & big name = lots of volatility
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#9
Originally Posted by Savio
By the time it was opened to investors like you and I, the price was well into the upper 90's
I think it would be a nice stock to short
I think it would be a nice stock to short
#10
China's Internet Boom Looks Very Familiar: William Pesek Jr.
2005-08-14 13:18 (New York)
(Commentary. William Pesek Jr. is a columnist for Bloomberg
News. The opinions expressed are his own.)
By William Pesek Jr.
Aug. 15 (Bloomberg) -- China is partying like it's 1999.
The reference here isn't to pop star Prince or the Y2K bug,
but the height of the dot-com stock bubble. In the last year of
the 1990s, hysteria over Internet companies that later
disappointed investors reached a fever pitch. Are we seeing the
beginnings of a similar phenomenon in China?
China's dot-com boom is in its infancy, whereas 1999 marked
the beginning of the end of the U.S.'s. Yet with Yahoo! Inc.
agreeing to pay $1 billion in cash for a 40 percent stake in
Alibaba.com, it's hard not to wonder if Internet mania is underway
in Asia's No. 2 economy.
China's biggest online retailer isn't considered a corporate
basket case. The question is whether Yahoo, seduced by a potential
market of 1.3 billion people, is overpaying for a piece of the
Hong Kong-based company.
The $1 billion figure seems like a huge amount for less than
half of an e-commerce outfit with 2,300 employees that reported
sales of $46 million last year. The investment is easily the
biggest by an overseas company in China's Internet industry. It
certainly won't be the last.
China's Allure
The deal came after shares of Baidu.com Inc. soared almost
fivefold in its Aug. 5 initial public offering, the biggest IPO
debut in more than five years. The Beijing-based owner of a
popular Web search engine instantly became the most valuable
technology company in China, with a market capitalization of
almost $5 billion. The IPO caught the attention of investors the
world over.
It's easy to understand the allure. China holds tremendous
promise, considering that less than 10 percent of the nation has
Internet access. At the moment, China has 100 million Web users,
half the number of the U.S.
That's why Amazon.com Inc., EBay Inc., Google Inc., Microsoft
Corp. and Yahoo are clamoring for Chinese partners. But should
investors be so quick to own shares in Chinese dot-coms? Haven't
we seen that such IPOs can be the financial world's equivalent of
fool's gold?
Maybe China will prove the skeptics wrong. Executives and
investors searching for the next big thing are mesmerized by the
nation's growth. The Chinese economy expanded 9.5 percent in the
second quarter and retail sales rose 12.7 percent to a four-month
high in July. Retail sales increased 12.9 in June.
Eye on Consumers
Chian's Premier Wen Jiabao is counting on consumer spending
and exports to sustain growth at the 8.6 percent annual rate of
the last decade as he steers the economy away from its dependence
on investment. The focus is on developing a thriving domestic
market driven by household consumption.
Profiting from that growth is what Yahoo has in mind with its
Alibaba.com investment.
All this is contributing to an environment where investors
are ignoring Alibaba.com's tiny revenue and eyeing its 14 million
users. This is what got so many investors in trouble in the 1990s:
ignoring concrete measures such as revenue in favor of squishy
numbers like ``clicks'' or ``unique visitors'' to a Web site. Old-
economy business realities took a back seat to hype.
Any number of risks might complicate Yahoo's plans.
For one thing, Internet censorship regulations by the Chinese
government can be unpredictable. For another, China's market for
online advertising is immature at best. And there is the question
of the Chinese consumers' willingness to pay for Web services.
Dot-com Mania?
Do China's already shaky stock markets really want to attract
the same breed of investor who bet on Boo.com, Globe.com and
Pets.com, companies that went bust once the frenzy passed?
For years now, a gold-rush mentality has pervaded boardrooms
of multinational companies. So excited are executives about cheap
labor that they're willing to look past the warts. China's banking
system is awash in hundreds of billions of dollars of bad loans
and social unrest could boil over as the gap between rich and poor
widens. Analysts also worry that China's economy may overheat.
China itself almost seems like the economic equivalent of the
dot-com boom of the 1990s. It's thought to be run by omnipotent
geniuses who can do little wrong. It's Asia's New Economy, its
potential is boundless and anyone who doesn't see that is either a
fool or a dinosaur.
Lessons of the 1990s
All this leaves the Communist Party with the burden of
achieving goals that are both unprecedented and seemingly at odds
with one another: Creating hundreds of millions of jobs to
maintain social stability while cooling growth to avoid inflation.
It needs to accomplish both feats without traditional tools like
short-term interest rates, which have little influence over
China's economy.
None of this means Yahoo's Alibaba.com investment won't pay
off. The company already has proven its mettle in Japan, where it
established itself as an important Internet power. And given
China's vast potential, not investing there would be a risk in
itself.
It's imperative that investors remember the lessons of the
U.S. dot-com boom and bust and apply them to China. At the moment,
it's not clear that they are.
2005-08-14 13:18 (New York)
(Commentary. William Pesek Jr. is a columnist for Bloomberg
News. The opinions expressed are his own.)
By William Pesek Jr.
Aug. 15 (Bloomberg) -- China is partying like it's 1999.
The reference here isn't to pop star Prince or the Y2K bug,
but the height of the dot-com stock bubble. In the last year of
the 1990s, hysteria over Internet companies that later
disappointed investors reached a fever pitch. Are we seeing the
beginnings of a similar phenomenon in China?
China's dot-com boom is in its infancy, whereas 1999 marked
the beginning of the end of the U.S.'s. Yet with Yahoo! Inc.
agreeing to pay $1 billion in cash for a 40 percent stake in
Alibaba.com, it's hard not to wonder if Internet mania is underway
in Asia's No. 2 economy.
China's biggest online retailer isn't considered a corporate
basket case. The question is whether Yahoo, seduced by a potential
market of 1.3 billion people, is overpaying for a piece of the
Hong Kong-based company.
The $1 billion figure seems like a huge amount for less than
half of an e-commerce outfit with 2,300 employees that reported
sales of $46 million last year. The investment is easily the
biggest by an overseas company in China's Internet industry. It
certainly won't be the last.
China's Allure
The deal came after shares of Baidu.com Inc. soared almost
fivefold in its Aug. 5 initial public offering, the biggest IPO
debut in more than five years. The Beijing-based owner of a
popular Web search engine instantly became the most valuable
technology company in China, with a market capitalization of
almost $5 billion. The IPO caught the attention of investors the
world over.
It's easy to understand the allure. China holds tremendous
promise, considering that less than 10 percent of the nation has
Internet access. At the moment, China has 100 million Web users,
half the number of the U.S.
That's why Amazon.com Inc., EBay Inc., Google Inc., Microsoft
Corp. and Yahoo are clamoring for Chinese partners. But should
investors be so quick to own shares in Chinese dot-coms? Haven't
we seen that such IPOs can be the financial world's equivalent of
fool's gold?
Maybe China will prove the skeptics wrong. Executives and
investors searching for the next big thing are mesmerized by the
nation's growth. The Chinese economy expanded 9.5 percent in the
second quarter and retail sales rose 12.7 percent to a four-month
high in July. Retail sales increased 12.9 in June.
Eye on Consumers
Chian's Premier Wen Jiabao is counting on consumer spending
and exports to sustain growth at the 8.6 percent annual rate of
the last decade as he steers the economy away from its dependence
on investment. The focus is on developing a thriving domestic
market driven by household consumption.
Profiting from that growth is what Yahoo has in mind with its
Alibaba.com investment.
All this is contributing to an environment where investors
are ignoring Alibaba.com's tiny revenue and eyeing its 14 million
users. This is what got so many investors in trouble in the 1990s:
ignoring concrete measures such as revenue in favor of squishy
numbers like ``clicks'' or ``unique visitors'' to a Web site. Old-
economy business realities took a back seat to hype.
Any number of risks might complicate Yahoo's plans.
For one thing, Internet censorship regulations by the Chinese
government can be unpredictable. For another, China's market for
online advertising is immature at best. And there is the question
of the Chinese consumers' willingness to pay for Web services.
Dot-com Mania?
Do China's already shaky stock markets really want to attract
the same breed of investor who bet on Boo.com, Globe.com and
Pets.com, companies that went bust once the frenzy passed?
For years now, a gold-rush mentality has pervaded boardrooms
of multinational companies. So excited are executives about cheap
labor that they're willing to look past the warts. China's banking
system is awash in hundreds of billions of dollars of bad loans
and social unrest could boil over as the gap between rich and poor
widens. Analysts also worry that China's economy may overheat.
China itself almost seems like the economic equivalent of the
dot-com boom of the 1990s. It's thought to be run by omnipotent
geniuses who can do little wrong. It's Asia's New Economy, its
potential is boundless and anyone who doesn't see that is either a
fool or a dinosaur.
Lessons of the 1990s
All this leaves the Communist Party with the burden of
achieving goals that are both unprecedented and seemingly at odds
with one another: Creating hundreds of millions of jobs to
maintain social stability while cooling growth to avoid inflation.
It needs to accomplish both feats without traditional tools like
short-term interest rates, which have little influence over
China's economy.
None of this means Yahoo's Alibaba.com investment won't pay
off. The company already has proven its mettle in Japan, where it
established itself as an important Internet power. And given
China's vast potential, not investing there would be a risk in
itself.
It's imperative that investors remember the lessons of the
U.S. dot-com boom and bust and apply them to China. At the moment,
it's not clear that they are.
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