Breaks down the numbers behind Gamecube, PS2, Xbox 360, Xbox and Dreamcast launches. The analysis is quite good, how launches mean nothing in terms of success.

http://jasoncross.1up.com/do/blogEnt...UserId=5694478

 

Is it possible to copy and paste the text/article? My work won't let me view and I am very bored. lol

 

Best Launch Ever? Worst? 34 Thumbs
Much has been made of the Xbox 360 launch, and certainly Microsoft's desire to spread the launch units among three territories has lead to shortages in the US and Europe. (MS isn't really losing sales or anything, they're just selling all over, which sucks if you can't find a 360 in your home town).

When it comes to software, the 360's launch has been heralded by some as the "best launch ever" and by others as a total bore, with no compelling reasons to get the system. I did a little research.

I went to www.gamerankings.com and got the average review score for every launch title for the last several major home consoles.

Here's the breakdown.

Number of games at launch (day one):

Xbox 360
18
Xbox
19
PS2
32
Gamecube
12
Dreamcast
19


The 360 has a thoroughly average number of titles available, while the PS2 hit the market with a flood of support and the Gamecube had little.

Average review score of all launch titles:

Xbox 360
78.4%
Xbox
74.2%
PS2
72.0%
Gamecube
78.8%
Dreamcast
73.8%

The 360 and Gamecube are about equal in the lead when it comes to average quality of the whole launch lineup (though the 360 did it with 50% more games). The PS2 is bringing up the rear, but it's surprising that the second-worst is the Dreamcast, which so many gamers remember so fondly as having an awesome launch lineup.

But who cares about the average score of the entire lineup, right? I mean who buys all the games? What really matters is the quality of, say, the top five games.

Average score of top 5 games:

Xbox 360
86.4%
Xbox
87.2%
PS2
87.0%
Gamecube
88.2%
Dreamcast
88.6%

So that's where the Dreamcast shines - the best of the launch games was ever so slightly better than those of other systems. The Xbox 360 was doing the best a week ago, but as more reviews have rolled in the top scores have dropped a little. When the worst-to-first is 86.4% vs. 88.6%, you're not talking about a huge difference in quality.

Okay, so we can statistically prove that, across dozens of reviews (averaging out the freakish "hated a great game" and "loved a bad game" oddball moments), the Xbox 360's launch is totally normal. It's a normal number of games, a normal average quality, a normal quality for the top 5 games. Where is the 360's launch unique?

Is it the edge cases? The killer apps and stinkbombs?

The top two Xbox 360 games are PGR3 and Call of Duty 2 (both 90%). The Xbox's top game was Halo (96%). The PS2's was SSX (92%). Gamecube had Madden and Rogue Leader (both 90%). Dreamcast had Soul Calibur (97%).

So it looks like the Dreamcast and Xbox had major killer apps, but the PS2 and Gamecube didn't really. This is sort of funny, because the Xbox went on to be a pretty big success (#2 worldwide from a fresh start, pretty good credibility, taking on Sony and Nintendo and all the anlaysts that said they'd give up after a year) and the Dreamcast bombed out. The Gamecube is the third-place seller for this generation while the PS2 is way in the lead.

So what can we learn from history? Let's review...

The Xbox 360's launch library is small: Nope, that was the gamecube. The 360's is average size.

The Xbox 360 has no kiler app: True, there's no Soul Calibur, Mario 64, or Halo. With two titles hovering with reviews around 90%, it's pretty much in the same league as the Gamecube was, and really, the PS2 (top two games were 92% and 90% with SSX and Madden).

The 360's lineup doesn't have many decent games: When you compare the top 5 games of all these launces, the 360 has the lowest average, but only barely. In truth, all five of the last big consoles had similar top game quality overall.

The 360's launch games are weak: Actually, the overall quality of the launch games is the second strongest of the last round of major consoles. It is the PS2, undisputed market leader, that had a whole pile of garbage games.

Okay this post is long enough already (hence I won't list all the launch games and their average scores - you can look them up yourself on GameRankings). I'll just close by saying this...

These are the scores for the North American launches of the consoles. The Dreamcast, Gamecube, and PS2's real "launch" happened in Japan months before coming to North America, and the list of games were far less distinguished.

Posted at Thu, 08 Dec 2005 14:26:03 EST Give Thumbs Up



Comments (9)

Good Information
DarkDragonLasVegas
Posted at Thu, 08 Dec 2005 17:07:53 EST


Love to see somone backing statements up with facts instead of fan-boyisms :-)

One question though, why did you leave PS1 out of the comparison?




There's just not much good data for PS1
JasonCross
Posted at Thu, 08 Dec 2005 18:19:31 EST


Unfortunately, Gamerankings.com only goes back so far.

The PS1 was launched in North America on Sept 9, 1995. Gamerankings has precious little data that old, and back then it was a world of mostly a few print magazines and a very small handful of game websites.

Plus, going back to that generation would mean including Saturn and Nintendo 64 as well, and it's even harder to find good average review scores for those (at least for the launch titles).



Availability
Dragonchasers
Posted at Thu, 08 Dec 2005 19:19:31 EST


I appreciate all the hard work you put into compiling these numbers, but I have to think that "availability" factors into the success of a launch. The launch is, what? 17 days in the past now and people who preordered in June are still waiting. I know I'm beating a dead horse, but if you can't get your system into the hands of a majority of consumers that want them, I have to call the launch a failure.


availability
JasonCross
Posted at Thu, 08 Dec 2005 19:41:15 EST


oh yes, I'm not talking about the entire "is the launch a success" thing. Merely the software lineup (as I said in the intro).

Certainly it's way too early to tell if the launch was a "success" or not.

If you're in the US and you can't get one, the lack of availability seems like a failure.

If you live in Europe, the fact that hundreds of thousands of gamers could get one now instead of having to wait 6 months or more is totally awesome.

Microsoft is making a conscious decision to "rob Peter to pay Paul." They're saying "okay maybe some of you over here won't be able to get one, but by doing that some of you in this other place WILL get to get one." Certainly if MS did the usual thing and launched only in one territory, there would be plenty of units to go around.

Whether that is a success or not, honestly, has little to do with shortages. The success of the launch will be determined by how much momentum the 360 is able to get rolling before the PS3 arrives, and how it can transition that first push into three territories into market leadership. That is the ENTIRE point of the launch going this way. And measuring the success of it won't really be possible until the PS3 has been on the market for a year or so.


Great Blog man!
FuNkYbOsS
Posted at Thu, 08 Dec 2005 23:59:57 EST


Thanks for all the info and facts!
There really is no way to compare the 360 to the PS3 yet.

I'm positive MS will give Sony another good fight for console domination. Competition is great because the consumers always win with a selection of amazing games.

All I can say is a console with a solid online community can't be beat. *cough* xbox live *cough*


Clean and Precise!
XboxDruggie
Posted at Fri, 09 Dec 2005 05:24:08 EST


Very nice read! I enjoyed this input and perspective immensely. It opens up thew view from a broader perspective and is accurate, correct and concise information.

Thanks for the eye-opener!


If you don't mind some civil debate...
Dragonchasers
Posted at Fri, 09 Dec 2005 08:28:05 EST


Whether that is a success or not, honestly, has little to do with shortages. The success of the launch will be determined by how much momentum the 360 is able to get rolling before the PS3 arrives, and how it can transition that first push into three territories into market leadership.

I see the shortages directly impacting the momentum issue, though. Granted this is anecdotal, but where I work 4 of us were ready to charge out and buy 360's. I was the only one lucky enough to get one. The other three guys followed the availability story for a week or so, but by now they've just gotten over it and have put the 360 on the back burner, figuring they'll worry about getting one when there are ample supplies.

These are guys in their 30's and even 40's in white collar jobs who have the disposable income and the inclination to go out and buy lots of games and accessories. What we don't have are jobs where it'd be ok to blow off work because we sat outside Best Buy all night waiting to try to score a 360 (two of us did pre-order, but that did no good since it was after May when we did). Getting units into the hands of youngsters who can get away with sitting in line over night is all well and good, but I think for the 360 to have momentum it needs to break out to where the average working man or woman can get one.

If that time is indeed March, as some stores are claiming, that's a big chunk of MS's 'early launch' squandered, no?

I suppose it depends a lot on when the PS3 actually launches. And if this March figure is actually true or not. If the 360 becomes plentiful in early January then all will probably be well.

Thanks for sharing your thoughts.


360 Hardware
jbrandonbb
Posted at Fri, 09 Dec 2005 12:51:24 EST


Well, the 360 fell about 75K units short of projected sales, so that tells you something.

But I think this is the one case where statistics only tell one part of the story. There was a sense in the gaming community that Xbox and Halo were killing PS2, and now there's a sense in the community that 360 had launch problems and has no killer games.


What about exclusive launch games?
carbstah
Posted at Fri, 09 Dec 2005 14:23:41 EST


I forgot where I read this (maybe 1UP?) so I won't take credit for it but the one thing about the 360 is that a majority of its launch titles are already available for the current generation that over nothing more than mere cosmetic changes.

Not even considering sequels.. what games do you have that aren't just "ports" of current generation games. You have Perfect Dark, Kameo, PGR3, and Ridge Racer 6 and Condemned (Am I forgetting any?)

 

Thanks!

 

Excellent find! All I can say for the supposed console war is wait and see