Wii to take lead initially, then give way to PS3; 360 to dominate through 2007.

October 13, 2006 - Hirokazu Hamamura is the president of Enterbrain, which gives him control of Japan's largest videogame publication, Weekly Famitsu. When Hamamura speaks, gamers and game creators alike listen.



Most recently, Hamamura has taken to speaking about next generation gaming. Famitsu.com reported today on a press conference held in Tokyo in which Hamamura explained the contents of a recent Enterbrain report dealing with next generation game systems.

Hamamura dished out some surprising sales predictions, which he cited as being based off surveys, launch titles and shipping information. He predicted that the PS3 would see Japanese domestic sales of 750,000 units and North American sales of 900,000 units by the end of calendar 2006. By the end of March 2007, he expects worldwide sales for the PS3 to reach 4.13 million units, significantly lower than Sony's forecast of 6 million units.

The Wii will initially do better, according to Hamamura. By the end of calendar 2006, he expects the Wii to sell 980,000 units in Japan, 1.1 million units in North America and a million units in Europe. By the end of March 2007, he expects worldwide Wii sales of 5.47 million units, also a bit lower than Nintendo's 6 million unit forecast.

The 360 will be firmly in the lead worldwide at the end of 2007, if Hamamura's predictions come true. He predicted Japanese sales of 250,000 units for the Xbox 360 by the end of calendar 2006, rising to 560,000 units by the end of calendar 2007; this latter figure, incidentally, would put the 360 above the original Xbox in terms of Japanese sales. Worldwide, he predicted that the system would reach 8.85 million units by the end of calendar 2006, rising to 17.46 million units worldwide by the end of December 2007.

Here's what Enterbrain's long-range predictions look like for the PS3 and the Wii:


PS3

JAPAN N.AMERICA EUROPE TOTAL
~12/2006 750,000 900,000 -- 1,650,000
~03/2007 1,080,000 1,850,000 1,200,000 4,130,000
~12/2007 2,470,000 5,900,000 3,600,000 11,970,000
~12/2008 4,210,000 11,300,000 8,000,000 23,510,000
~12/2009 6,050,000 15,400,000 12,600,000 34,050,000
~12/2010 8,120,000 18,700,000 16,100,000 42,920,000


WII

JAPAN N.AMERICA EUROPE TOTAL
~12/2006 980,000 1,100,000 1,000,000 3,080,000
~03/2007 1,670,000 2,400,000 1,400,000 5,470,000
~12/2007 3,380,000 4,200,000 2,900,000 10,480,000
~12/2008 5,490,000 8,100,000 4,600,000 18,190,000
~12/2009 7,140,000 11,500,000 6,100,000 24,740,000
~12/2010 8,590,000 14,500,000 7,300,000 30,390,000


Also included in the Enterbrain report was a survey of gamers. These details come our way from Japan's Yomiuri Online website. People numbering in the thousands (Yomiuri doesn't state the exact number) were asked which next generation system they want most. PS3 took 35.6% of the vote followed by the Wii at 13.6% and the Xbox 360 at 2.9%. This doesn't add up to 100% because 47.9% responded that they don't know or that they don't want any of the next generation systems in particular.

The survey also asked which system people would be buying at the end of the year, the PS3 or the Wii. Of the 1,707 responders, 35.8% said they'll buy Wii, ahead of the PS3's 32.3%. Only 4.3% said they'll buy both, while 27.6% said they'll take a wait and see approach.

Despite the next generation focus of the Enterbrain report and Hamamura's speech, the real star of the Japanese game scene, for the next year at least, won't be a console. Hamamura expects the DS to continue its strong sales, reaching 13.5 million units in Japan alone by the end of calendar 2006 and 19.66 million by the end of 2007. Worldwide, he expects the DS to reach the 32.1 million mark by the end of 2006 and 49.4 million by the end of 2007.

Hamamura even made mention of a particular DS game that he expects to do well. Sega's Oshare Majo Love and Berry, a DS port of the company's popular girls' oriented arcade title, will sell 1.5 million copies, Hamamura believes, making it the biggest DS third party title to date. This is in line with recent unconfirmed retail reports that suggested an initial shipment of one million units for the title.