Ken1997TL

It did well

It was NEVER intended to sell well, it was purposely limited production and blew away all sales expectations. Originally it was intended to be built for two or three years, it was built for just under 10.

Acura_Dude

^ and it's still highly sought after.

VR1

You can say the same thing about a Porsche 991 Carrera or an R8 4.2... It's not all about straight line speed..

CHSCoast

Getting tired of my 2012 Mustang GT Premium 6-speed as my only car/DD. I'm thinking about the TSX again, always liked it. Might trade my car in for one in the Dec/Jan timeframe if they're still around. Here are my thoughts/opinions on the TSX situation:

-The TSX and TSX wagon will have a short MY2014 run

-The drop in TSX sales starting in Sept 2012 coincides with the arrival of the 2013 Accord

-TSX sales are now increasing from the lows experienced during the first 6 months of the Accord's release; possible explanation for the decrease in TSX sales was that there were likely a lot of people fence-sitting who were trying to decide between upper-trim 2013 Accords and the TSX

-Those fence-sitters who were waiting for the 2013Accord to debut (and then chose the Accord over the TSX) are now "out of the equation" so to speak, at least in terms of the initial pent-up surge (the TSX will likely continue to lose sales to the new upper-trim Accords on a trickle basis). In other words, I think it's unlikely that we'll see another dip in TSX sales like we saw last year when the new Accord first went on sale. I think TSX sales have now "stabilized" and will hover steadily between 1600-2000 units a month from now until whenever they officially discontinue it.

-As of yet, the rumored 2015 TLX has not broken surface or been confirmed. Unless Honda is planning some sort of blitzkrieg style, full-court-press-type launch, this will not show up before next summer. Until then, Acura needs ALL its current sedans in the lineup for coverage. Like any important new model, it will have to be properly introduced and launched over a 6-month period to acclimate the buying public and the dealers.
-Furthermore, the 2015 TLX will need to be revealed in a big important auto show, so that means the soonest the public will be exposed to it is Los Angeles 2013 or Detroit 2014 with an on-sale date of May 2014 (My money would be on LA with an on-sale date 5-6 months thereafter)

-In light of all that, the MY2014 TSX will indeed show up in September 2013 and continue production until March or April of 2014

-As of March/April 2014, the last TSXs will leave Japan for America and provide a 90-day supply that will provide a small buffer while the TLX gains a foothold in Acura dealerships

-The TSX's R&D costs are long-since paid for; TSX is basically generating easy cash for Honda with little to no marketing or continued investment, so they'd be stupid to kill it off and throw away millions in profit. Even at an (conservative) average transaction price of $30,000 at 5% profit and sales of 25,000 a year the TSX lineup alone generates $750,000,000 in revenue and $37,500,000 in profit for Honda!

CHSCoast

On the other hand, I could also see Acura making some cuts to slim down the model line for its final year:

-no wagon at all
-no 6-speed/Special Edition
-no base model sedan

Only available trims:
I4 5AT Tech Package Sedan
V6 Tech Package Sedan

Limited exterior colors like white, black, two silvers
All interiors will be Ebony

I could live with all that if it happens, I just hope they don't kill it off completely for MY2014...One...more...year!

Acura_Dude

Dude... you just blew my mind. Most of that didn't even cross my mind.

WiggsNuke

I test drove an ILX when I bought my TSX... I wasn't a big fan, but the wifey loved it. I think it was the backup camera that she liked
I thought the driver's seat was just way too cramped... felt like I was in a much smaller car than I actually was.

krnboy817

after living with my tsx wagon for past 3 months, i can see why acura would cut off tsx from its line up.

the build quality isnt there... at least no longer comparable to rest of the line up or comparable even to the supposedly lower trim honda accords (new).

the price of the tsx at new is a price a v6 accord could be sought after with more room in the back, trunk, more of the updated tech in both power plant and interior cabin. heck my tsx pretty much has the same tranny as my 99 prelude did. imo the 2nd gen tsx counted too much on the success of the 1st gen and didnt receive or fulfill its full potentials and most of the 2nd gen car was a carry over of the 1st gen other than the body shell + interior.

i think acura figured out they have tainted its tsx name over the past few years and if they are going to spend money on developments, might as well create a new name and create a new lineup to match its rivals of today and not yesterday. and its even at that point that acura seems to be playing catch up with the rest of their competition or even with the whole car industry... RLX for example.

i dont know why or how but Honda seems to have got their ball rolling again with their products... why cant acura do the same? would it now have been that much wrong today if acura had stuck the 2.4T found in 1st gen RDX in the 2nd gen tsx... even at midcycle? arent all of their competition pushing forced inductioned power plants now? with more power and efficiency?

acura step away from the tsx... it is finished. learn from it and leave to go build something great. you seemed to know how to do that back in the old days...

CHSCoast

Oh yeah, here's another thing...

CAFE

The TSX helps with Acura's CAFE numbers (helps to offset some of those MDX sales!), so that's another reason for them to keep it around until the rumored TLX hits the showroom.

Even if TSX sales fall to 15,000 or 20,000 total for the 2013 calendar year, and if Acura cuts it for 2014, there's no WAY they're going to make up that lost volume between the equally-aged TL and the lukewarm ILX. NO WAY.

The only thing they would accomplish by killing the TSX off for 2014 is pissing off their dealership network and hurting their own bottom line.

And one MORE thing...

the YEN

The yen has been weakening over the past year, which the Japanese LOVE. In fact, they're getting about 25% more YEN for every dollar's worth of sales abroad. So since the TSX is imported from Japan, Acura's profits on it are probably at an all-time high right now. Easy money. The bean-counters are probably loving it. Again, again, again...it would be beyond stupid for them not to let it run for MY2014. Obviously I have a selfish interest in seeing it go to MY2014 so that I can buy one , but my logic here is sound. After MY2014 would be a stretch but hey, the ride is good right now for them (in terms of the financials), so they should let it ride......

Acura_Dude

CHSCoast

Not this. The TL and TSX as we know them today will not be around for the 2015 model year. If we're lucky, we'll see the TL and TSX for one more model year = 2014. The TSX and TL are solid cars, but are certainly aging fast and facing pressure from everything from the upper-trim 9th Gen Accords to the new IS, 3-Series, CTS, Q50, etc. The rumored 2015 "TLX" will therefore have to be revealed within 6 months and be on sale this time next year.

As much as I love the TSX, if we're being honest it is now behind the competition in terms of performance, infotainment features, and safety features (adaptive cruise, lane departure, park assist, etc.). But the fact that it continues to sell relatively well deep into its life cycle without these features is a testament to the car as a whole. The TSX and TL are strong enough to fight for one more (short) model year, but no more than that.


This. There will have to be a small overlap while the outgoing models (current TL and TSX) leave and the new model ramps up (TLX). So this makes a strong case for short MY runs for the TL and TSX. I agree/hope that the TSX and TL will have a MY2014 run, and if it happens I do believe it will indeed be a short one. I'm thinking production dates August/Sept-March/April.

So to review/summarize my educated guess timeline:

September 2013: MY2014 TSX and TL go on sale

November/Dec 2013 or Jan 2014: TLX is revealed at LA auto show or Detroit auto show

March/April 2014: Current-gen TSX and TL production ends; models discontinued

April/May 2014: 2015 TLX starts hitting showrooms; remaining 2014 TSX and TL stock is gone by mid-summer


Watch for it...the next MY TSX usually goes on sale officially in September judging by past model years (2012, 2013, etc). So if Acura releases the MY2014 TSX sooner than that this time around, say early August, we'll know something's up,,,.......

BattleofXs

I wish they'd make an SHAWD v6 6speed coupe...something semi based off the accord coupe but a little smaller and wider

Acura_Dude

beach109

This is what most should expect, and should be dead on given a month or two of change. Everything we've been told is right in line with this.

The current TSX is still an incredible car to drive and from a performance aspect, and I enjoy my latest 2013 as much as any I've had. Even the Premium/base model doesn't leave me wanting for upgraded audio or anything, it's a great package as is.

A key issue with the TSX other than aged design is how expensive it is to build and ship, with Honda losing money on everyone sent here. Just the nature of the exchange rate.

Acura_Dude

Do you think this will still be an issue within the next yr since the yen is losing value?

bagwell

iTrader: (1)

don't Honda "SPECIAL EDITIONS" always get produced on the last model year of a bodystyle?

but the CU2 had SE's for 12 & 13??

CHSCoast

Good to know my armchair quarterbacking is somewhat accurate.

However, I have to disagree with you about the losing money thing. No way is Honda losing money on the TSX, and certainly not this deep into its lifecycle.

Honda's R&D costs for the 2nd Gen TSX were pretty much limited to the platform itself since they powertrain was essentially a carryover from the Gen 1 TSX. The development costs for that 2.4L and the 5-speed auto were recouped LONG ago, during the 1st Gen's model run.

It probably cost Honda somewhere around $800 million to develop the 2nd Gen TSX (Euro Accord).

Even just doing simple cost/revenue calculations, that $800 million would have been covered in the first 3 years of the 2nd gen TSX sales alone (2009, 2010, 2011). That's not even taking the Euro Accord sales into account.

Car manufacturing is not a running-loss sort of thing unless you're GM. There is no 1:1 ratio, like each and every TSX costs $40,000.00 to build and ship but generates only $30,000.00 for Honda. It just doesn't work that way. *ALL* cars make a profit *IF* their development costs have been recouped. If a carmaker says they're losing money on a model, that means it hasn't recouped it's development costs yet. Once it does cross that threshold, the car begins "printing money." Again, most car manufacturers go for about 5% profit per car.

I would respectfully argue that at this point in its model cycle, Honda is not only NOT losing money on the TSX, but they are making profit hand-over-fist (see my calculations a few posts up for more details).

There is nothing exotic about the TSX that would cause Honda to lose money on it. Additionally, automakers generally have agreements with their OEMs that price of components will be reduced by something like 5% year over year.

So, the TSX is cheaper to make now than it was in 2009, its development costs have been recouped as of 2012, and the yen is relatively weak too...that equals profit for Honda, not loss.

If Honda is indeed losing money on it, there will not be a MY2014. I'd bet the farm on that. But as I argued in a previous post, they're making easy money on it right now, and the strongest argument FOR a MY2014 TSX run is that they'd be stupid to let the profit go. That's the only reason they'd even have a MY2014. There's really no other explanation.

If current sales levels are any indication, they *may* sell 15,000 TSXs if there is a MY2014 run. That's a small number, even considering the model's age. If they weren't making a profit on each and every one, they wouldn't bother.

CHSCoast

Maybe Honda only intended the SE to be a 2012 model, but 2012 was a good year for the TSX lineup as a whole, so they brought it back. Maybe the SE is doing better sales-wise than they thought it would, so they're keeping it around.

But this brings up a good question. So let's say there is in fact a MY2014 TSX. I'm about 90% sure there will be.

What I'm NOT sure of at all is how the model mix will shake out. I wouldn't be surprised if they carried the whole TSX lineup over as-is, but I also wouldn't be surprised if they trimmed it down significantly by cutting the wagon, the SE, the base model, the V6, and just leaving the 5AT Tech Package Sedan as the only trim level for what is truly going to be its last year.

And there's no way 2012 would have been the last model year either way. At the very least the TSX/CU2 was scheduled for a 5-year cycle (2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013). I don't think there was ever any question about a MY2013 TSX, however now that we're approaching MY2014, there is still some mystery. Maybe there was a delay with the TLX development, so they're going to milk the TSX for one more year (MY2014) until the TLX hits the scene next summer...It would be a little unusual for Honda to run a sedan for 6 model years judging by their overall history, but hey, I'm keeping my fingers crossed!

Acura_Dude

I wonder if the earthquake/tsunami a couple years back is what delayed their future models (TLX). Wasn't the ILX suppose to be the 1st model to have the Earth Dreams motors?

Simba91102

I doubt weather has anything to do with the TLX since it will be built in this country, on the Accord platform, and is basically an all USA show. Ditto the exchange rate. Though I assume it will have some Japanese content, the labor, and much (most) of the rest will be locally sourced (USA and Canada) so as to be all North America and dollar based. Thanks to this, the yen/dollar relationship will be minimized. Honda has always played new model introductions very close to the vest. Historically, none of them have seen the light of the day until very shortly before they're actually introduced and go on sale (the present generation Accord and the RLX for instance). I'm pretty confident that anyone who has posted predictions on this thread concerning the future of the TSX knows no more about it than my 93 y/o mother, so I guess we'll have to wait and see what happens (when it actually happens....).

CHSCoast

Says the guy who made a post filled with speculation, no less. Oh the irony.

And let me tell you something: I do, in fact, know more about it than your 93 y/o mom.

Acura_Dude

Thanks for clearing up the natural disaster Simba. CHSCoast, your earlier posts made me think more about the TL/TSX. Does anyone know if the TL will have a SE model next year? Pretty sure I'm asking too early. I'm used to seeing a Special Edition trim level (i.e. Accord) at the end of it's generation and next year would've been a complete redesign. The TSX completely through me for a loop. So I'm expecting to see a 6th year for the TSX/TL.

pox

I just got off the phone with a dealer who was telling me that the 2014 TSX Sport Wagons were on their way... but was vague about arrival dates since they're being shipped from Japan.

EzeE1o

Tere is a TL SPECIAL EDITION. Info was released recently. It does not have as many "special" features as the tsx se, only 18's, push start, and a rear spoiler

CHSCoast

Sir, furthermore, you are completely incorrect about the importance of the yen. Your understanding of the forces at work here are critically, fundamentally flawed.

Honda is a Japanese company with its global headquarters in Japan. As such, their corporate financials are always reported in YEN. Honda's US sales (dollars) ultimately end up in the company's financial reports as YEN. The exchange rate figures in REGARDLESS of where the vehicle was made. This is why the Japanese love it when the yen is weak. For every $1 they "make" in the states, they get more YEN for it at home. This applies to every foreign company doing business in the US.

Every time a Japanese or European car company has said "We can't bring that car to the US because of the exchange rate," it's just a red herring to pacify consumers who would otherwise be interested in it PRECISELY because so few people actually understand how things work. It's just a way to tell people to piss off because they don't really know how to question it. In fact, car companies often negotiate terms with banks well in advance that allow them to "lock in" exchange rates so that they are protected from fluctuations. Again, most of this stuff goes well above the average person's head, and the car companies know it. Cliff's Notes: Anytime you hear a company say "We can't make the numbers work for that car in the US due to the exchange rate" or "It's too expensive to build/ship that car to the US without losing money", it's BS. Ninety-nine times out of a hundred, it's total BS.

I do not have any inside connections at Honda, nor am I a shareholder. I do, however, do industry analysis for a living and I'm pretty damn good at it. If you're going to be condescending and passive-aggressive, at least have a basic understanding of how the automotive industry, financial markets, and exchange rates work. Or better yet, don't click into a thread that is obviously based on educated speculation and then criticize us for doing just that: making educated speculation.

If you care to refute any of my carefully-constructed claims, I welcome it, but please back it up with some actual facts and analysis. Thank you for the opportunity to debate and have a nice day!

Professor

CHSCoast, your mom conceived at 65 years old? I'm putting my pecker back in my pants for a few more years.

Concerning the TSX, they are getting a bit dated, but they still have some style. The latest TL and RLX looks to have shortened the truck lid some much they almost look like hatchbacks.

But the earthquake did screw things somewhat. PWP was no longer available so they had to jump to Artic White.

CHSCoast

What? Reading comprehension fail? I never said anything about my mom. You must be confused.

And yeah, I'm sure the earthquake had something to do with that. Like they lost the secret recipe when it was swept out to sea. No other explanation for them changing the name/shade...

CHSCoast

Interesting if true. If the MY2014 cars are indeed in production and shipping they would get here in July and potentially be on sale in August (in the past the next model year TSX was always released in September, officially).

Would support the theory of it being an early and short run for the MY2014 cars.

Professor

Testy are we? Yeah Simba posted, I was trying to extend some friendship to you with little post. But if not wanted not wanted not given.

And the paint story is true.

CHSCoast

Ah, ironic humor. Forgive me. I was wondering if that might be the case based on other posts of yours. Friendship is always welcome. Thank you and happy Saturday night!

Acura_Dude

Industry analysis, huh? CHS I bet that does get stressful at times. BTW I did learn a lot from reading your post, considering the exchange rate. Didn't know car manufacturers could "lock-in" exchange rates with banks well in advance. We have definitely become a global economy in the last couple of decades imo.



Are you serious? The TL already has those features. C'mon Acura, you can do better. I'll give them credit for adding the 18s though.

EzeE1o

https://acurazine.com/forums/4g-tl-2009-2014-123/new-acura-tl-special-edition-debuts-key-feature-upgrades-889314/

Simba91102

You're right, but no real irony here as I include myself with those that have tried to read the tea leaves. It's fun to try and predict the future, but with so little actual facts available, it's all speculation. Fear not though, as I doubt it will take long for the story to unfold.

CHSCoast

Another random thought:

If they extend the TSX to a MY2014, that will make a nice even 10-year run for the TSX name, from 2004-2014 to finish off its existence. Only fitting since it will likely be replaced by the TLX.

Here's to hoping someone at Honda product planning has OCD.

CHSCoast

Here's a nice short little explanation from a major US company about how exchange rates are locked in (aka forwards, hedging, etc.).

http://www.boeing.com/news/frontiers...ust/i_fof.html

The yen/dollar hit a 4-year high earlier this spring. If Honda was smart, they jumped all over it and locked in for 12 or 18 months.

That way, for every Japanese-made car they sell in the US, they'll be MAC DADDY FAT even if the rate falls in the coming year. Hello, MY2014 TSX!!

Word to the wise, again: Any time a foreign car company gives exchange rates as a reason for cancelling or not selling a car in the US, they're either straight up lying or they fumbled and didn't lock-in when they should have.

Auto journalists are just like most people...they barely understand economic fundamentals and can barely balance their own checkbooks, so they never call companies out on this stuff, whether it's some dumb PR girl or a vice president of operations feeding them (and us) this crap.

Acura_Dude

I see where you're coming from.

I did see that thread, thanks. Badging and wheels. There's nothing really "special" about "Special Edition" nowadays.

Boulder TSX

Hate to jump in here to correct something, but since you corrected many others in this thread on various things, I thought well, why not.

A 2004-2014 run would actually be eleven model years. (If you don't believe me, count 'em.)

With that said, I hope they do extend the TSX through 2014.

CHSCoast

Nicely done.

Anyway, July is already here, I wonder what news it will bring. If the 2014 TSX is indeed going to hit dealer lots in September as usual, they need to be leaving Japan any day now.........

Boulder TSX

Thanks. --And yes, one would think news will be coming...soon.

JTRADAR61

Acura of Boston posted a picture of a refreshed 2014 TSX. On their FB page looks nice