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You don't need to have a lot of (or any) shares to buy puts if you think stock will go down.
If CMG reports bad numbers and guidance, stock can easily drop 10%-15%. You can buy March 18 $440 put for $16. That will easily double (at the least) if it goes down 10%.
Analysts are expecting Q4 2015 EPS of $1.86 and revenue of $1.01 billion. A year ago, EPS was $3.84 with revenue at $1.07 billion.
Chipotle now subject of broader criminal investigation; comp sales fall 14 pct
Chipotle reported quarterly earnings and revenue that were mixed on Tuesday, but shares fell sharply amid news that the company is now the subject of a broader criminal investigation.
The company posted fourth-quarter earnings per share of $2.17 a share, compared to $3.84 a share in the year-earlier period.
Revenue for the quarter came in at $998 million, against the comparable year-ago figure of $1.07 billion.
Chipotle's earnings beat most of Wall Street's expectations.
Company shares were down 2.5 percent in extended hours trading.
Sales of established restaurants fell 14.6 percent in the fourth quarter.
Chipotle Closes Massachusetts Restaurant After Workers Get Sick
Tue Mar 8, 2016 6:19PM EST
Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc., still trying to recover from a series of foodborne-illness outbreaks, temporarily shut a restaurant in Massachusetts after four employees got sick.
The location in the town of Billerica, outside Boston, was closed for a full cleaning, company spokesman Chris Arnold said in an e-mail.
Chipotle has been reeling from a food-safety crisis since early November, when the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said it was investigating an E. coli outbreak linked to the chain’s restaurants. That brought attention to previous foodborne illnesses among the chain’s customers. The concerns only grew after a norovirus outbreak sickened scores of college students in Boston in December, weighing on Chipotle’s sales.
It’s not known if the sick employees in Billerica had norovirus, and there are no reports of customers falling ill, Arnold said on Tuesday.
“Any employees who reported feeling ill will be tested and held out of the restaurant until they fully recover,” he said.
Chipotle shares fell as much as 4.7 percent to $500.09 in late trading after local media began reporting on the Billerica shutdown. The stock has declined 20 percent over the past 12 months.
chipotle says sales recovering, but down 26 percent in feb.
1 hour ago
the associated press
new york (ap) — chipotle says sales trends are showing improvement but were still down 26 percent for february as it tries to recover from a series of food scares.
The drop in sales at established locations for february follows a 36 percent decline for january. The february results were boosted by an extra day in the month this year, the denver company said.
Chipotle mexican grill inc. Is trying to bounce back after an e. Coli outbreak and other incidents sent sales plummeting starting at the end of october. Executive have since said they've stepped up food safety measures and that the incidents are behind them. To get customers back in stores, the chain known for its burritos and bowls has stepped up marketing and promotions.
The company said it sales recovery began the week of feb. 8, when it offered people a chance to get coupons for free burritos. It said the recovery continued into march, with its sales decline easing to 22 percent for the first week.
But the second week of march worsened to a decline of 27 percent following the temporary closure of a boston restaurant after workers were reported to be sick.
Credit suisse analyst jason west has noted chipotle's promotions for free entrees could be eating into sales. In addition to the feb. 8 offer, he cited a direct mail campaign also offering free entrees that expires may 1.
In its filing with the securities and exchange commission tuesday, chipotle said its first-quarter results would include an estimate of the "liability for expected, but unredeemed free burrito offers."
the company also said it expects to incur higher legal costs in relation with an investigation by the department of justice. A representative for the office in california has declined to comment on the case.
Chipotle also said tuesday that it has hired james marsden, a previous faculty member at kansas state university's animal science and industry department, as its executive director of food safety.
Expects Q1 per share loss of $1.00 or more. First quarterly loss since going public. Part of loss is due to giving away free food. Expected cost of promotions is $60 million.
Despite blanketing the country with coupons for free burritos, Chipotle said Tuesday its sales continued to tank over the past two months. Now it expects to post a $1-per-share loss in the first quarter, instead of the break-even quarter it initially forecast.
For one, it turns out you don't make a lot of money by giving away stuff for free. But it's also an indication that millions of dollars of marketing isn't a compelling enough reason to bring back restaurant-goers who may have only come for the free meal, or those who moved on to Chipotle competitors in the wake of its food borne-illness scandal. Recovering those diners is going to take time.
Now they want to give away even more free food. Investors could see another loss in Q2 if people don't return after claiming free burritos.
Free-burrito campaign has worked to woo back wary customers, restaurant chain says
Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. is planning to give away even more burritos as part of what the restaurant chain says is a successful campaign to win back customers.
On Wednesday, Chief Financial Officer Jack Hartung told investors that the company’s recent free-burrito deals have drawn in customers who had steered clear of the chain in the wake of disease outbreaks last year and that those customers are becoming repeat customers.
He described the “eerie” experience many customers have reported of walking by empty Chipotle restaurants but said that is no longer the case. Drawing people back with free burritos, he said, helped convince other customers to come in.
The gap between free versus paid entrees has narrowed in recent weeks, he added, and customer traffic has improved from a greater-than-30% decline in early January to a decline of less than 20% last week. Customer perception scores are also on the upswing, the company said.
Still, Mr. Hartung said 5% to 7% of Chipotle customers said they never will come back. The majority of customers have told Chipotle that they want to wait a bit more before returning.
The company is planning to give away more free burritos as well as offer buy-one-get-one-free offers.
Sales dropped more than 20% last week, not less. Chart above shows Q4 2015 sales declined 14.6%. January sales declined 36.4%. February sales declined 26.1%. Sales during 1st week of March declined 21.5%. Sales during 2nd week of March declined 27.3%.
At a critical level, if it's broken then on to 400 we go. I'd like to see it go to 250 and then I may buy in. Long term I think they can turn it around.
They probably haven't sent out coupons for your area yet. I know they are being sent out. There are already a bunch all over e Bay. A lot are priced at around the same price as a burrito too which is dumb.
While you're waiting for your fee burrito, get your free chips and guac at http://www.guachunter.com/ . Just play the game. Don't have to win.
A couple months ago I saw somewhere online ... either here or maybe reddit or something? Anyways I just sent a text to a number and Chipotle sent me a text back for a free burrito/bowl. It worked
01-13-2016, 01:02 PM
Hold and buy protective puts?
Sales dropped more than 20% last week, not less. Chart above shows Q4 2015 sales declined 14.6%. January sales declined 36.4%. February sales declined 26.1%. Sales during 1st week of March declined 21.5%. Sales during 2nd week of March declined 27.3%.
