Sales Predictions

Old 06-06-2018, 07:26 AM
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Sales Predictions

The outgoing RDX has averaged around 51,000 units a year, or 4250 units a month. In 2017 the class leader (the Q5) sold around 59,000+ a year while the NX is just behind it at 57,000+. For Acura to surpass both the RDX would need to get to around 5000 units per month. If the market conditions remain the same, and the supply is there, I really do think the RDX can get to this level, but time will tell.

Thoughts?
Old 06-06-2018, 07:54 AM
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If there are no recalls or stop sales then the RDX will break it’s all-time record this year and next year. It’s already slightly up for the year through May. I think 55,000 units for sure will happen. 60,000 is in play but it’s a stretch - to get to 60,000 they need to average 5700 sales a month the rest of the year. That would be pretty remarkable for a car that’s never broken 6,000 for a single month. I think June could be that month given the old RDX still being blown out and the interest in the new one being pretty high. That makes the June number somewhat meaningless but it also will show what kind of potential ceiling the new RDX will have.

Ultimately I think they will fall just short of 60k but easily clear 55k.
Old 06-06-2018, 08:18 AM
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This year will be tough as we are already in June.
I predict the 2018 sales will be +/-52,000 units. YTD sales are consistent and it will pick up a bit but I highly doubt it will break records. Let's not forget that the price of a fully loaded RDX went up and that will have an impact on sales. As of now there isn't much incentives.

If no recalls and major issues such as transmission and vibration, next year RDX will lead this segment. I was thinking QX50 will be a big player but now after all the reviews, I highly doubt that. Last year Infiniti started the year well with QX30 sales and this year it's tanking badly. Even though it got amazing reviews. But people are going after X1, 2 and GLA. Wait for the new Q3 and Lexus UX. The QX30 will be discontinued lol.
Old 06-06-2018, 08:22 AM
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YTD:
X1 13K = 13% up
GLA 10K = 26% up
Q3 8.7K = 18% up
QX30 4K = 52% down
Old 06-06-2018, 08:29 AM
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Good thoughts. A major bounding factor is what did Honda plan on + what is plant capacity. These are finite boundaries. For instance VW shot themselves in the foot (actually their head) and the TN plant went far below capacity which is also controlled by shifts. They used the Atlas to fill the production gap as Passat died off. I never see an Atlas on the road for some reason?

I have no idea what Honda planned on. It seems to me they would have planned on a market share increase and are prepared for the RDX to be well received.

Acura would want to brag about 60,000 per year for sure. They need to expand conquest cash to grab the BMW, Merc, Lexus crowd. Currently they target on RX and Q5.

I am seeing $5000-7000 off of Q5 and X3. Acura RDX is nice but it still reminds me of a Honda- A very nice Honda.

RDX Tech is $43000 Q5 Premium plus with Nav can be had with 19 inch wheels for $44,000, X3 with nav $45,000 (many option variances as you know).

So is the RDX a good deal right now? Not really truth be told.

Acura is like Mazda in regards to a small dealer network. Not so easy for rural folks to pick up an Acura. 300 dealers last I checked. Only two in all of Oklahoma for instance.
Old 06-06-2018, 11:50 AM
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Originally Posted by idgystinks
Good thoughts. A major bounding factor is what did Honda plan on + what is plant capacity. These are finite boundaries. For instance VW shot themselves in the foot (actually their head) and the TN plant went far below capacity which is also controlled by shifts. They used the Atlas to fill the production gap as Passat died off. I never see an Atlas on the road for some reason?

I have no idea what Honda planned on. It seems to me they would have planned on a market share increase and are prepared for the RDX to be well received.

Acura would want to brag about 60,000 per year for sure. They need to expand conquest cash to grab the BMW, Merc, Lexus crowd. Currently they target on RX and Q5.

I am seeing $5000-7000 off of Q5 and X3. Acura RDX is nice but it still reminds me of a Honda- A very nice Honda.

RDX Tech is $43000 Q5 Premium plus with Nav can be had with 19 inch wheels for $44,000, X3 with nav $45,000 (many option variances as you know).

So is the RDX a good deal right now? Not really truth be told.

Acura is like Mazda in regards to a small dealer network. Not so easy for rural folks to pick up an Acura. 300 dealers last I checked. Only two in all of Oklahoma for instance.
If you think the new RDX is like a nice CRV, then I guess the Audi Q5 is just a nice Volkswagen Tiguan too. Regarding pricing, I just built a Q5 with the same specs (navigation, 19" wheels, sound system) as the RDX Tech Package, and the Q5 was $49,850 while the RDX was $42,500, so I am not sure where your math came in. The RDX also looks fresher, offers more space and a better driving experience. Now with rebates perhaps the Q5 could come down by a couple thousand but it's still around $5000 more.
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Old 06-06-2018, 12:45 PM
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Originally Posted by James Wilson
If you think the new RDX is like a nice CRV, then I guess the Audi Q5 is just a nice Volkswagen Tiguan too. Regarding pricing, I just built a Q5 with the same specs (navigation, 19" wheels, sound system) as the RDX Tech Package, and the Q5 was $49,850 while the RDX was $42,500, so I am not sure where your math came in. The RDX also looks fresher, offers more space and a better driving experience. Now with rebates perhaps the Q5 could come down by a couple thousand but it's still around $5000 more.
Very well said...
Q5 is a better Tiguan
NX is a better Rav4 and so on....
Old 06-06-2018, 02:35 PM
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Originally Posted by idgystinks
Good thoughts. A major bounding factor is what did Honda plan on + what is plant capacity. These are finite boundaries. For instance VW shot themselves in the foot (actually their head) and the TN plant went far below capacity which is also controlled by shifts. They used the Atlas to fill the production gap as Passat died off. I never see an Atlas on the road for some reason?

I have no idea what Honda planned on. It seems to me they would have planned on a market share increase and are prepared for the RDX to be well received.

Acura would want to brag about 60,000 per year for sure. They need to expand conquest cash to grab the BMW, Merc, Lexus crowd. Currently they target on RX and Q5.

I am seeing $5000-7000 off of Q5 and X3. Acura RDX is nice but it still reminds me of a Honda- A very nice Honda.

RDX Tech is $43000 Q5 Premium plus with Nav can be had with 19 inch wheels for $44,000, X3 with nav $45,000 (many option variances as you know).

So is the RDX a good deal right now? Not really truth be told.

Acura is like Mazda in regards to a small dealer network. Not so easy for rural folks to pick up an Acura. 300 dealers last I checked. Only two in all of Oklahoma for instance.
Regarding those $5-7K discounts, actual sales statistics indicate discounts in the neighborhood of $2,500 on both mid-line Q-5 and X-3. I'd like to see sales a single sales invoice that indicates 12-13% discount...6% would be a stretch.
Old 06-06-2018, 05:37 PM
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Originally Posted by GTF
Regarding those $5-7K discounts, actual sales statistics indicate discounts in the neighborhood of $2,500 on both mid-line Q-5 and X-3. I'd like to see sales a single sales invoice that indicates 12-13% discount...6% would be a stretch.
Edmunds price promises list about 5500-7500 off the Q5 and X3. Might have to change your location to see better prices. RDX will need to come down in price to stay competitive and hit the 65,000 units they are trying to sell.
Old 06-07-2018, 02:06 AM
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Originally Posted by skarface
Edmunds price promises list about 5500-7500 off the Q5 and X3. Might have to change your location to see better prices.
Would this be called cherry picking? Unless this alleged pricing applies to a large portion of the respective vehicles sold, it has little relevance.

When I requested pricing info on Q5 I was seeing about 2k off MSRP through a buying service. But the option packages will kill you on the German brands. No real news there.

Anyway, if you're a "buy and hold" kind of car buyer, Honda/Acura is a good bet. Lease a BMW and ditch it before it breaks.
Old 06-07-2018, 07:30 AM
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Originally Posted by skarface
Edmunds price promises list about 5500-7500 off the Q5 and X3. Might have to change your location to see better prices. RDX will need to come down in price to stay competitive and hit the 65,000 units they are trying to sell.
If those reductions were possible, buyers would gravitate to them and would show up in actual sales. Easy to show savings on a website, but seeing actual sales at $2.5-$3K savings is what is happening. Outliers are usually result of dealer demos, dealer-owned but not-titled, etc. I used my Chicago address in search....history was sufficient. Again, let's look at an actual transaction, not "buy here and save $$$". A new $50+ X-3 or Q-5 at $7K off....not happening.
Old 06-07-2018, 09:33 AM
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Good thoughts but $5000 off a Q5/X3 is not impossible. I like the RDX but simply wanted to add perspective on upgrades from a CRV or direct competition.

Also if an RDX Tech is $42,500 why has a dealer (sales manger) turned down a true $43,300 offer on an AWD tech?
Old 06-07-2018, 09:35 AM
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because they know the guy in behind you is likely offering 44,000, and they'll take that instead.
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Old 06-07-2018, 09:36 AM
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2018 BMW X3. list $44,500, purchase $37,500. Possible. Absolutely. Loyalty programs, military program, BMW drive incentive program. If you can get those to apply there are deals. I just do not want to get RDX tunnel vision. The X3 is also more efficient.
Old 06-07-2018, 10:02 AM
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One of the local BMW dealers in Atlanta is at about $4k off on X3's (not demos/loaners either) here is one example (they have several others in stock with this discount):
  • MSRP:$49,095
  • Savings:$3,927
  • E-Price:$45,168
If they are showing 4k on the web site, you can likely do even better in person. $5k seems doable to me.

Last edited by chickdr; 06-07-2018 at 10:08 AM.
Old 06-07-2018, 12:09 PM
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Originally Posted by GTF
If those reductions were possible, buyers would gravitate to them and would show up in actual sales. Easy to show savings on a website, but seeing actual sales at $2.5-$3K savings is what is happening. Outliers are usually result of dealer demos, dealer-owned but not-titled, etc. I used my Chicago address in search....history was sufficient. Again, let's look at an actual transaction, not "buy here and save $$$". A new $50+ X-3 or Q-5 at $7K off....not happening.
Yeah, $5-7k is definitely possible...even easy if you just bring in the price promise certificate from Edmunds (The advertised discount in the DC area is up to nearly $8k now) . My coworker got 10k off the X1 at the end of the month, end of model year. Other locations may not have as generous of discounts though, which is why I said you might have to change your location to see that it is possible. Areas with little competition will probably not get near $5-7k off since they don't have to. Especially if the customers are coming in thinking 5k off is impossible and are happy to bargain just to reach a $3k discount.

Chicago Edmunds discount looks to be 2-3k which is probably why you are seeing that. Put in a DC zip code and see what the discount adjusts to. Buyers don't necessarily want to spend the time to research or cross state lines to get the "best deal". People buy local. But these discounts are definitely possible and are on new vehicles.
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Old 06-07-2018, 11:06 PM
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I think 65,000 goal is achievable, but they have to commit to the manufacturing of that many vehicles and to keep that up they need to discount to move them off the lot. But it looks like the car has a lot going for it. And heck, they are already offering a few discounts, so maybe they really do want to sell them.
Old 06-29-2018, 06:31 AM
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Acura's new RDX closing in on sales records - Business - The Columbus Dispatch - Columbus, OH

Acura’s new RDX closing in on sales records

Posted Jun 28, 2018 at 12:05 PMUpdated Jun 28, 2018 at 12:12 PM
Acura’s latest SUV, the redesigned RDX, is speeding off dealer lots.

The RDX, which is built at Honda’s East Liberty plant alongside the CR-V and Acura MDX, is on track to break its all-time June sales record, and possibly its monthly sales record as well, according to the folks at American Honda.

With about a week left in the month, Acura has sold more than 4,500 of the redesigned RDX, which was launched in May. The June record for the model is 5,327, set last year. The all-time best month is 5,945, set in December 2016.

Honda said the response in the market is encouraging as the RDX’s styling language and features will percolate throughout Acura’s lineup in the years to come.


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Old 06-29-2018, 07:17 AM
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Show up in November at Acura, BMW, and Audi, and tell them “I have $45K max for an SUV, what is the best you can do?” I bet you’ll get an RDX with everything, and a BMW and Audi with key stuff missing.
Old 06-29-2018, 08:26 AM
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So true, I went to a BMW dealer, test drove an X3. Gave him a list of options, and my price. He told me to check back with him in July or end of the year (he said usually the best time)
Old 06-29-2018, 11:09 AM
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Acura is using the RDX as a make or break model for the company; that is why they didn’t want to break the $50k barrier out of the box. To sell 60,000 units they are going to have to convince a lot of people to dump their near luxury, or luxury vehicles, to buy an all-new vehicle. Even with Honda/Acura reliability (which is not near what it used to be) it’s going to be a hard sell. I hope I’m wrong.

Last edited by Rexorg; 06-29-2018 at 11:12 AM.
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Old 06-29-2018, 12:28 PM
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Check out the new Alex on Autos review in the media thread. Very favorable for the RDX, especially for value under $50k compared to the others. Acura is going to do very well with this vehicle.
Old 06-29-2018, 01:37 PM
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Originally Posted by quantum7
Check out the new Alex on Autos review in the media thread. Very favorable for the RDX, especially for value under $50k compared to the others. Acura is going to do very well with this vehicle.
I agree Acura is going to do very well with the RDX, unless they have quality issues like the TLX had.

I am really happy to see that Acura is including more standard features on the base vehicles. I want full power adjustments on both front seats in a "luxury" car. Up until now, you had to get a higher level model (often with a bigger engine, that I did not want or need) to get that from Acura.
Old 06-29-2018, 03:00 PM
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Originally Posted by quantum7
Check out the new Alex on Autos review in the media thread. Very favorable for the RDX, especially for value under $50k compared to the others. Acura is going to do very well with this vehicle.
I’ve been waiting for his full review back on his turf. Sounds like his opinion didn’t change from the rollout drive.
Old 06-29-2018, 03:27 PM
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RDX is the best selling vehicle Acura has. If they fail, Acura will be in serious trouble. Jon is betting farm on this redesign.
Old 06-29-2018, 03:53 PM
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You can get a lot off a BMW and a Q5, and can get, now, next to nothing off an RDX, so the price comparisons are a bit tenuous at the moment.
Old 06-29-2018, 06:11 PM
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We went and looked at a Q5 Prestige and even with decent discounts it was still a few grand more than MSRP for the RDX Advance AWD so it does show that the RDX value proposition is very good. the Q5 was nice, the virtual cockpit is amazing, but the interior of the RDX feels more luxurious and comfortable. The Q5 was sportier ride, but the RDX was overall more balanced.
Old 06-29-2018, 06:26 PM
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Originally Posted by James Wilson
If you think the new RDX is like a nice CRV, then I guess the Audi Q5 is just a nice Volkswagen Tiguan too. Regarding pricing, I just built a Q5 with the same specs (navigation, 19" wheels, sound system) as the RDX Tech Package, and the Q5 was $49,850 while the RDX was $42,500, so I am not sure where your math came in. The RDX also looks fresher, offers more space and a better driving experience. Now with rebates perhaps the Q5 could come down by a couple thousand but it's still around $5000 more.
Here in SoCal, I can get easily a $6K discount on a new Audi Q5 , . It is that competitive
Old 06-29-2018, 08:17 PM
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The new RDX is more expensive and they have far higher cost models compared with the 2018's. I think Acura can sell less vehicles and make more money.
Old 06-29-2018, 08:40 PM
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Originally Posted by dcmod
Here in SoCal, I can get easily a $6K discount on a new Audi Q5 , . It is that competitive
agreed. With current discount on the Q5, the price difference is within couple of thousands. However, you will sacrifice some features on the Q5 with that comparison.

You just have to ask yourself if 16 way power seat is more important or driving an Audi...

wait for few few more months, we should see similar discounts.
Old 06-30-2018, 12:32 AM
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Originally Posted by Madd Dog
You can get a lot off a BMW and a Q5, and can get, now, next to nothing off an RDX, so the price comparisons are a bit tenuous at the moment.
True. Around me the only discounts dealers are offering on the RDX are the Acura Loyalty - other than that it's strictly MSRP. Two dealers have told me it's not unusual for them to sell an RDX based on specs along 'cause it's not even on the lot yet. About the only 'negotiations' possible are trade in value and maybe some 'freebies' thrown in. Definitely a sellers market right now.

Old 06-30-2018, 07:04 PM
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Originally Posted by dcmod
Here in SoCal, I can get easily a $6K discount on a new Audi Q5 , . It is that competitive
still makes the Q5 a tad more than RDX MSRP. A Q5 Prestige with driver assistance and warm weather packets which puts it on par with RDX Advance RDX is $55K so even with $6K discount you are more than RDX MSRP. And if I remember Audi has moved Quattro to be FWD biased unlike I. The past when it was 40/60 split thus SH-AWD is far superior since the Q5 does not torque vector. We found the RDX more refined, but the Q5 was more sporty and handled a tad better and that virtual cockpit is awesome.
Old 07-01-2018, 09:31 PM
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Am I the only one perplexed at this debate over 'value'?

Fully loaded German brands are more expensive than Japanese brands (even with discounts).. hasn't it always been this way?
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Old 07-03-2018, 10:00 AM
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Acura sold 7,292 RDX's in June, an all time high. I did not see a breakout between 2018 and 2019 models.
Old 07-03-2018, 10:03 AM
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June 2018


American Honda Sets New June Sales Records on Strength of Light Trucks - Acura News

American Honda Sets New June Sales Records on Strength of Light Trucks

Jul 3, 2018
  • Light trucks lift American Honda to new June records for total vehicles and trucks
  • Acura RDX sets all-time best sales month and all-time record month for any Acura SUV on gain of 37%
  • Acura trucks set new June record, up 17% on record RDX and strong MDX sales; total Acura brand up 3.5%
  • Honda brand nets new June total vehicle and trucks sales records, rising 5% overall as trucks gain 11.2%
  • Honda Pilot and CR-V set new June records, with CR-V up 17.5% and Pilot jumping 35.8%
  • Honda Civic rises and Accord stays strong, the two combining for over 58,000 in June sales
"Honda and Acura light trucks delivered strong results in June," said Henio Arcangeli Jr., senior vice president of the American Honda Automobile Division. "The all-new Acura RDX arrived in showrooms in June and wasted no time in getting off to a record start, delivering its best sales month in the model's 13-year history. For the Honda brand, Pilot and CR-V were standouts in the month as steady inventory levels nationwide helped our dealers meet increasing customer demand for our light truck offerings. We're also pleased to see the all-new, 55-mpg-rated Honda Insight deliver a strong first weekend since going on sale on June 29."
Sales Highlights
Trucks led gains for Honda in June, with the brand, trucks, CR-V and Pilot all setting new June records. Honda cars also fared well in June, with Civic and Fit up modestly, and Accord topping 26,000 sales for the month.
  • The hot-selling CR-V set a new June mark, climbing 17.5% on sales of 33,306.
  • Pilot also set a new June record, jumping 35.8% on sales of 12,782 units, marking the model's 10th straight monthly increase.
  • Civic sales topped 31,000 units in June despite tight supplies. With Accord adding 26,726 units, the two combined for over 58,000 in sales.
Model Notes
With Fit, Civic and Accord, Honda sells more retail cars in the subcompact, compact and midsize segments combined than any other brand in the industry.
Odyssey is the clear benchmark people-mover minivan in America and the most purchased among retail buyers.

BRAND REPORT
Sales Highlights
Representing the beginning of a new era in Acura product design and development, the all-new 2019 Acura RDX delivered big results in just its 1st month of sales, smashing its all-time monthly record.
  • RDX sales jumped 36.9% over June 2017 (itself a record month) on sales of 7,292 units, setting an all-time RDX sales record for any month.
  • RDX also set a new sales record for all Acura SUVs, eclipsing the previous record of 6,761 set by MDX in 2014.
  • RDX sales in June were also the highest of any Acura model in any month since April of 2006 (TL).
  • Adding strong MDX sales gave Acura trucks a new June record, rising 16.9%.
Model Notes
The 1st in a new generation of Acura products, the 2019 RDX went on-sale in June with more performance, features and luxury than ever before.
ILX topped the Small Premium Car segment in the J.D. Power 2018 U.S. Initial Quality Study (IQS), and is gaining share among new entry-luxury buyers in a challenging market.






Old 07-03-2018, 10:15 AM
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Those Accord numbers have to stress out Honda. Personally I think it's a great car but it definitely shows the trend away from sedans.
Old 07-03-2018, 10:56 AM
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Wow! 7,292 RDX.

Well done Acura. But TLX
Old 07-03-2018, 11:09 AM
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I know some folks were saying Infiniti sold 10K of QX50 3 months before the QX50 actually hit the dealer. I can't wait to see the numbers today

First of all, it was very hard to believe that 10K customers bought Infiniti QX50 without test drive but we never know I will post the numbers once it's up!
Old 07-03-2018, 11:12 AM
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Originally Posted by Fury63
Those Accord numbers have to stress out Honda. Personally I think it's a great car but it definitely shows the trend away from sedans.
The Accord has sold almost as well as the Camry the last two months. It was far behind earlier in the year. Honda is probably not too disappointed with the Accord numbers right now.
Old 07-03-2018, 11:14 AM
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Do the RDX numbers include 2018+2019?

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