The Theory of Relativity
12-01-2006, 09:05 AM
#1
I feel the need...
Thread Starter
The Theory of Relativity
This audio clip became an instant classic a year ago, and considering recent events, remains apropos. For Sam Zell's 2006 holiday announcement, click on the link and make sure you stay for the song...
http://www.yieldsz.com
(Sam Zell is a well reknowned Real Estate investor and Billionaire)
http://www.yieldsz.com
(Sam Zell is a well reknowned Real Estate investor and Billionaire)
12-04-2006, 06:47 PM
#3
Senior Moderator
hmmm... peak oil, housing crash... sounds like your kinda guy...
I wonder if wstevens (stanford grad) knows this guy
Coincidently, I just watched "thanks for smoking" about a week or two ago...
Oh, I read about 2/3's of the article at work.... just finished it here at home... the best part - `Petrodollar Illusion' doesn't come up until the end....
I wonder if wstevens (stanford grad) knows this guy
Coincidently, I just watched "thanks for smoking" about a week or two ago...
Oh, I read about 2/3's of the article at work.... just finished it here at home... the best part - `Petrodollar Illusion' doesn't come up until the end....
12-04-2006, 07:03 PM
#5
I feel the need...
Thread Starter
Seriously, as a self-styled freethinker and avowed libertarian, like Thiel - I too attempt to think outside the box. Most investors, the population in general are lemmings - a marketers wet dream.
Unlike Thiel, my weakness is that I am too cautious with risk to hit the homeruns he is hitting. I've increased my net worth by over $200,000 this year *(despite having over 50% of my assets in cash equivalents) and my home has actually depreciated YOY.
One day, I will have the balls to strike out on my own. Until then, I can appreciate the guys and gals who do!
And as for peak oil, housing crash, deflation, etc. - there is a distinct difference between wanting things to happen (ie me: not wishing for) and understanding the dynamics in play which may cause things to happen in a manner not forseen by the general population.
Unlike Thiel, my weakness is that I am too cautious with risk to hit the homeruns he is hitting. I've increased my net worth by over $200,000 this year *(despite having over 50% of my assets in cash equivalents) and my home has actually depreciated YOY.
One day, I will have the balls to strike out on my own. Until then, I can appreciate the guys and gals who do!
And as for peak oil, housing crash, deflation, etc. - there is a distinct difference between wanting things to happen (ie me: not wishing for) and understanding the dynamics in play which may cause things to happen in a manner not forseen by the general population.
12-05-2006, 09:20 AM
#6
Originally Posted by Fibonacci
Seriously, as a self-styled freethinker and avowed libertarian, like Thiel - I too attempt to think outside the box. Most investors, the population in general are lemmings - a marketers wet dream.
Unlike Thiel, my weakness is that I am too cautious with risk to hit the homeruns he is hitting. I've increased my net worth by over $200,000 this year *(despite having over 50% of my assets in cash equivalents) and my home has actually depreciated YOY.
One day, I will have the balls to strike out on my own. Until then, I can appreciate the guys and gals who do!
And as for peak oil, housing crash, deflation, etc. - there is a distinct difference between wanting things to happen (ie me: not wishing for) and understanding the dynamics in play which may cause things to happen in a manner not forseen by the general population.
Unlike Thiel, my weakness is that I am too cautious with risk to hit the homeruns he is hitting. I've increased my net worth by over $200,000 this year *(despite having over 50% of my assets in cash equivalents) and my home has actually depreciated YOY.
One day, I will have the balls to strike out on my own. Until then, I can appreciate the guys and gals who do!
And as for peak oil, housing crash, deflation, etc. - there is a distinct difference between wanting things to happen (ie me: not wishing for) and understanding the dynamics in play which may cause things to happen in a manner not forseen by the general population.
loan shark.....
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12-05-2006, 06:24 PM
#8
Senior Moderator
Oh, but Thiel doesn't mention one of my favorite economic doomsday causes... the retiring/non-spending/dieing off of the baby boomers... Where's Harry Dent when you need him 
I still have to much money in cash equivalents... I've got to get more into the market. Hmmm... Ford is back down into the 7's...
I still have to much money in cash equivalents... I've got to get more into the market. Hmmm... Ford is back down into the 7's...
12-05-2006, 08:31 PM
#9
I feel the need...
Thread Starter
Gloom & Doom?
Originally Posted by GreenMonster
I still have to much money in cash equivalents... I've got to get more into the market. Hmmm... Ford is back down into the 7's...
Greenie, might be a little too early on the Ford play...
Iraq and Afghanistan are very similar to Vietnam, and are debasing the buck very quickly. How does this affect us? Simple. It means that as conditions get worse, bankruptcies will increase wildly, foreclosures will multiply in the millions, the dollar will go down, and the stock market will do the same. Ford Just hocked every building and piece of land and machinery they own, to get an $18 billion loan. This is only twice what they lost the first nine months this year! Can they survive?
http://www.silverbearcafe.com/private/g&d.html
http://www.silverbearcafe.com/private/g&d.html
12-05-2006, 09:33 PM
#10
Senior Moderator
Originally Posted by Fibonacci
Greenie, might be a little too early on the Ford play...
https://acurazine.com/forums/showthr...=305635&page=5
12-06-2006, 02:45 PM
#12
Senior Moderator
Originally Posted by KCPreki11
That was interesting...but can somebody explain this thoery in the simplest way posssible.
Hopefully Pistonfan... ahh... Fibonacci can break it down for us in a nice little soundbite...
There's alot of cash floating about, and alot of people haven't been (or are afraid about) investing it, so yeilds on investments are down overall... or that's the way I see it...
12-07-2006, 10:16 AM
#13
I feel the need...
Thread Starter
Originally Posted by KCPreki11
That was interesting...but can somebody explain this thoery in the simplest way posssible.
Monetization of hard asset's, refers to the ease of which real estate, for example can be securitized and resold, equity can be tapped which puts cash in investors pockets.
This has created massive liquidity, meaning lots of dollars sloshing around in the system which has to go somewhere. Traditionally, sharp increases in the money supply leads eventually to inflation, but if that were the case now - we wouldn't see the entire benchmark treasury curve inverted (which historically is a harbinger of an economic slowdown.)
Becasue of an aging developed world, ie Western Europe, Japan, North America - a lot of pension plans are underfunded and HAVE to buy assets which produce income, ie bonds. Thus, a partial explanation for the yield curve inversion.
In turn, lowering the cost of capital, (lowering borrowing costs), has made borrowing (leverage) cheap and lenders willing to lend (plentiful).
Zell believes it will take about five years to return to a more normalized environment, ie risk premiums (credit spreads) to revert to the mean. Until then, he says enjoy the party (he's bullish on equities).
Did this explanation help?
08-04-2008, 07:54 PM
#14
I feel the need...
Thread Starter
bump.
My, my what a difference a year makes. It was just a little over a year ago that private equity and hedgies were running around like self-anointed lords of the manor proclaiming the dawn of a new age gilded age.
Now that the credit crunch has celebrated its one year anniversary, a time for reflection on the subject of this thread - Sam Zell aka the "gravedancer". His current troubles at the Trubune aside, wow - he was spot on liquidating his real estate at near the peak of the market. Too bad he hadn't just kept his proceeds as cash -- what a time to start scooping up some discounted assets.
Interesting times to say the very least...
My, my what a difference a year makes. It was just a little over a year ago that private equity and hedgies were running around like self-anointed lords of the manor proclaiming the dawn of a new age gilded age.
Now that the credit crunch has celebrated its one year anniversary, a time for reflection on the subject of this thread - Sam Zell aka the "gravedancer". His current troubles at the Trubune aside, wow - he was spot on liquidating his real estate at near the peak of the market. Too bad he hadn't just kept his proceeds as cash -- what a time to start scooping up some discounted assets.
Interesting times to say the very least...
08-05-2008, 10:34 AM
#15
goldeneye style
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fib just saw this post. i track thiel too... he's been on a tear this year as well. he pretty much 'top ticked' the energy trade last month too, unreal.
i follow paul tudor jones of tudor investment corp and then louis bacon of moore capital mgmt as well (2 other macro based funds, excellent risk managers as well)
wondered how you're playing the current market, if at all. higher levels of cash than normal i'm sure? feel free to pm if you'd rather not share in public
i follow paul tudor jones of tudor investment corp and then louis bacon of moore capital mgmt as well (2 other macro based funds, excellent risk managers as well)
wondered how you're playing the current market, if at all. higher levels of cash than normal i'm sure? feel free to pm if you'd rather not share in public
08-06-2008, 05:22 PM
#17
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Originally Posted by moonraker
wondered how you're playing the current market, if at all. higher levels of cash than normal i'm sure? feel free to pm if you'd rather not share in public
04-15-2009, 08:08 PM
#18
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Billionaire Zell Says ‘I Made a Mistake’ in Purchasing Tribune
Billionaire investor Sam Zell made what is acknowledged to be one of the best-timed investment decisions ever by selling his real estate empire at the peak of the market in February 2007. Now he says he made one of the worst 10 months later by purchasing Tribune Co.
“The definition if you bought something and it’s now worth a great deal less, you made a mistake,” Zell said in a Bloomberg Television interview today. “And I’m more than willing to say that I made a mistake. I was too optimistic in terms of the newspaper’s ability to preserve its position.”
Zell, 67, exited the U.S. office market by selling Equity Office Properties Trust to Blackstone Group LP for $39 billion including debt in the biggest leveraged buyout at the time. The sale earned Zell about $900 million. In December 2007, Zell and investors took Tribune private in a deal that gave the company $13 billion in debt. The company filed for bankruptcy in December 2008.....
“The definition if you bought something and it’s now worth a great deal less, you made a mistake,” Zell said in a Bloomberg Television interview today. “And I’m more than willing to say that I made a mistake. I was too optimistic in terms of the newspaper’s ability to preserve its position.”
Zell, 67, exited the U.S. office market by selling Equity Office Properties Trust to Blackstone Group LP for $39 billion including debt in the biggest leveraged buyout at the time. The sale earned Zell about $900 million. In December 2007, Zell and investors took Tribune private in a deal that gave the company $13 billion in debt. The company filed for bankruptcy in December 2008.....
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