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Tesla Meets Model 3 Production Goal, but Struggles With Deliveries
Oct. 2, 2018
Tesla Inc. met its third-quarter production goal for its Model 3 sedan but struggled to get the cars to customers, underscoring the operational challenges ahead for Chief Executive Elon Musk and his electric-car company.
The company Tuesday said it made 53,239 Model 3s during the three-month period, up from 28,578 in the second quarter. Mr. Musk on Aug. 1 forecast the company would make 50,000 to 55,000 Model 3s during the third quarter.
Tesla delivered 55,849 Model 3s during the period, missing the 56,000 expected by a consensus of analysts surveyed by FactSet. Tesla had previously said 11,166 Model 3s were in transit at the end of the second quarter that would arrive in third-quarter results.
Model S sedan sales rose to 14,470 from 14,065 a year earlier, while Model X sport-utility vehicle deliveries rose to 13,190 from 11,865. Sales during the third quarter totaled 83,500, compared with 26,150 a year earlier and exceeded analysts estimates of 82,000 for the period.
The surge in Model 3 sales is key to Mr. Musk’s plans to turn a profit in the third quarter.
Tesla is betting the Model 3 will become its first mass-market vehicle after proving it could build a global luxury brand of electric cars with its higher-end Model S and Model X vehicles. Mr. Musk had once pledged to deliver a total of 500,000 vehicles this year with a high-tech assembly process designed for mass production.
Tesla instead struggled with its production line and repeatedly missed goals, and it has yet to sell any Model 3 cars at its long-promised price of $35,000, instead offering the cheapest version for $49,000.
The company finally demonstrated an ability to make 5,000 Model 3s in a seven-day stretch during the final week of June, a pace that Mr. Musk has said the company must consistently reach to generate enough cash to avoid raising new capital.
During the third quarter, Tesla averaged making about 4,000 Model 3s a week. In the final week of the quarter, Tesla said, it produced more than 5,300 Model 3s.
Aside from production, Tesla is facing a new set of challenges associated with moving into the mainstream. While Tesla’s Fremont, Calif., factory is churning out cars, the company is struggling to put them into customer hands.
Mr. Musk acknowledged as much on Twitter in September, saying Tesla was running short on trailers to deliver cars and was building its own carrier cars to help alleviate the situation.
Tesla owners, eager to help, volunteered to help at company stores with customers coming to pick up their vehicles during the end-of-the-quarter rush.
The unorthodox efforts underscore how Tesla, despite a market value that rivals General Motors Co. , is still in its early days. The challenge for Tesla will be maintaining its breakneck pace going forward.
Tesla said delivery and outbound logistics were the company’s main challenges during the third quarter.
“We made many improvements to these processes throughout the quarter and plan to make further improvements in Q4 so that we can scale successfully,” the company said in a statement.
Tesla had 8,048 Model 3s in transit at the end of the quarter that count as deliveries in the fourth quarter.
PALO ALTO, Calif., Oct. 02, 2018 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- In Q3, we produced 80,142 vehicles, 50% more than our prior all-time high in Q2, including:
- 53,239 Model 3 vehicles, which was in line with our guidance and almost double the volume of Q2. During Q3, we transitioned Model 3 production from entirely rear wheel drive at the beginning of the quarter to almost entirely dual motor during the last few weeks of the quarter. This added significant complexity, but we successfully executed this transition and ultimately produced more dual motor than rear wheel drive cars in Q3. In the last week of the quarter, we produced over 5,300 Model 3 vehicles, almost all of which were dual motor, meaning that we achieved a production rate of more than 10,000 drive units per week.
- 26,903 Model S and X vehicles, which was slightly higher than Q2 and in line with our full-year guidance.
Q3 deliveries totaled 83,500 vehicles: 55,840 Model 3, 14,470 Model S, and 13,190 Model X. To put this in perspective, in just Q3, we delivered more than 80% of the vehicles that we delivered in all of 2017, and we delivered about twice as many Model 3s as we did in all previous quarters combined.
Our Q3 Model 3 deliveries were limited to higher-priced variants, cash/loan transactions, and North American customers only. There remain significant opportunities to grow the addressable market for Model 3 by introducing leasing, standard battery and other lower-priced variants of the car, and by starting international deliveries.
Demand for Model S and X remains high. In Q3, we were able to significantly increase Model S and X deliveries notwithstanding the headwinds we have been facing from the ongoing trade tensions between the US and China. Those trade tensions have resulted in an import tariff rate of 40% on Tesla vehicles versus 15% for other imported cars in China.
In addition, Tesla continues to lack access to cash incentives available to locally produced electric vehicles in China that are typically around 15% of MSRP or more. Taking ocean transport costs and import tariffs into account, Tesla is now operating at a 55% to 60% cost disadvantage compared to the exact same car locally produced in China. This makes for a challenging competitive environment, given that China is by far the largest market for electric vehicles. To address this issue, we are accelerating construction of our Shanghai factory, which we expect to be a capital efficient and rapid buildout, using many lessons learned from the Model 3 ramp in North America.
With production stabilized, delivery and outbound vehicle logistics were our main challenges during Q3. We made many improvements to these processes throughout the quarter, and plan to make further improvements in Q4 so that we can scale successfully. As part of this effort, we plan to continue to expand direct deliveries to customers at their home or office, a service we launched in Q3 to improve customer convenience.
8,048 Model 3 vehicles and 3,776 Model S and X vehicles were in transit to customers at the end of Q3, and will be delivered in early Q4. Our overall target of 100,000 Model S and X deliveries in 2018 remains unchanged.
Our net income and cash flow results will be announced along with the rest of our financial performance when we announce Q3 earnings.
Elon Musk Stirs Controversy on Twitter in Wake of SEC Settlement
Reference to 1990s hip-hop song ‘O.P.P.’ leaves shareholders guessing
Oct. 1, 2018 6:14 p.m. ET
Elon Musk is already generating controversy on Twitter two days after settling a fraud case by securities regulators who are requiring Tesla Inc. to put in place a system to monitor his public communication.
At 1:22 a.m. local time in California on Monday, Mr. Musk sent his first tweet since Saturday’s settlement was announced, posting a music video of the hip-hop song “O.P.P.” and captioning it with the artist of the song “Naughty by Nature,” followed by a winking emoji.
The ambiguous tweet about a 1990s rap song that jokes about sexual infidelity showed that in the wake of serious securities charges Mr. Musk is still willing to make provocative comments on Twitter, let alone statements that could be misinterpreted by investors.
A guessing game ensued on Twitter as to what the chief executive meant by his tweet. Was he simply sharing a song he was listening to in the early hours? Or was it a cheeky reference to his rebellious style in the wake of angering the Securities and Exchange Commission?
Some people responding to Mr. Musk’s tweet had a theory that would be more legally problematic for the CEO: O.P.P. was a veiled reference to “operating profit positive.” Tesla, after all, had just completed the third quarter for which Mr. Musk promised the company would deliver a profit after a string of losses stemming from struggles to produce the Model 3 sedan.
“Sure, could be operating profit positive,” James Stephenson, 40 years old, a Tesla shareholder and a financial analyst in Florida, responded on Twitter. “To be clear, OPP is not an abbreviation commonly used to describe profit margin. But Naughty by Nature never had a hit song called Ebitda.”
Tesla doesn’t break down its sales geographically or by month, so we need to use someone’s estimates.
Zach Shahan, Director and Chief Editor of CleanTechnica, has estimated that 24,040 Model 3s were sold in the US last month, making it the 4th best selling car in the country. The Toyota Prius is the top car traded in on the Tesla Model 3, while the Honda Accord and Honda Civic are the 3rd and 4th most common cars traded in (as disclosed during the Q2 Tesla financials call). So, we know both of these companies’ customers are buying Tesla Model 3s.
Isn’t it interesting that nobody is writing stories on electric cars displacing gas cars, but everyone is writing stories on SUVs and trucks are replacing cars?
Interesting that the Model 3 costs more than twice as much as everything else on that list.
The federal and state subsidies help a lot to close price gap. In California, likely where majority of Tesla's are sold (almost half of all EV's in the U.S. are in California), that's a $10,000 ($7,500 federal + $2,500 state) discount.
I wonder if sales trends will be affected when the federal tax credit is cut in half (to $3,500) in January, then in half again (to $1,875) in July 2019.
Anyways, looks like I might get my sub $290 price if more negative news continues to come out.
Tesla shares drop after analysts worry about China trade war risk
Oct. 3, 2018
The escalating trade conflict between the U.S. and China could be bad news for Tesla, according to J.P. Morgan.
On Tuesday, Tesla cautioned investors about the "headwinds" in China from the trade war in its third-quarter vehicle production and deliveries announcement. The company said the trade conflict has led to a 40 percent import tariff on Tesla vehicles exported to China.
"In another negative development, the deliveries release speaks to challenges in China relative to the increase in tariffs for vehicles imported from the United States," J.P. Morgan analyst Ryan Brinkman said in a note to clients Wednesday.
In similar fashion, Moody's is concerned about the potential escalation in the trade war between the two countries.
"Cash generation could be dampened, however, by rising trade tensions with China," Moody's analyst Bruce Clark said in a note to clients Tuesday. "China is an important long-term market for Tesla and exports to the country represented approximately 20% of automotive revenues during 2017."
One hedge fund firm also revealed Wednesday that it is betting against the electric car maker.
Hudson Bay Capital Management's Sander Gerber told Reuters that his firm is short Tesla's stock due to the growing number of employees who have left the company.
Tesla's debt looms and company continues to face 'challenges,' Moody's says
Published: Oct 3, 2018 1:01 p.m. ET
Changes mandated by U.S. securities regulators for Tesla Inc. will reduce corporate-governance risk at the Silicon Valley car maker, but the company "continues to face important governance, financial and operational challenges," analyst Bruce Clark of Moody's Investors Service said in a comment earlier this week.
About $1.15 billion in debt matures between November and March, and the company's cash stands around $2.2 billion as of June, Clark said. Tesla's current cash position and its Model 3 production and sales ramp increase the likelihood that the company will be able to repay the debt, but trade tensions with China could dampen Tesla's ability to generate cash, Clark said. "China is an important long-term market for Tesla and exports to the country represented approximately 20% of automotive revenues during 2017," he said.
Departures of senior executives is another sore point, as they have been disruptive to the company at a critical time, he said. Moreover, Tesla's competitive advantage has lost some of its luster, he said. With delivery delays and initially low rate production for the Model 3, "as well as a delivered cost to the consumer that is well above the initial expected price of about $35,000, Tesla's advantage of being first to market with a unique product is less formidable than it had been," Clark said.
Audi’s First Electric SUV to Challenge Tesla and Jaguar
Oct. 3, 2018 12:32 p.m. ET
By the second quarter of 2019, American consumers will be getting the keys to Audi’s first battery electric car, the e-tron premium SUV. The car is a Tesla fighter (aimed especially at the Model X), though Audi denies it’s doing anything other than building the best EV it can.
The five-passenger 2019 e-tron will be competitively priced in the segment, starting at $74,800 (Premium Plus) and moving on to Prestige ($81,800) and First Edition ($86,700). U.S. reservations are now open, with a required (but refundable) $1,000 deposit. (The Tesla Model X starts at $79,500.)
The e-tron, which qualifies for a federal income tax credit of up to $7,500, will be built at a new factory (boasting of its carbon neutrality) in Brussels and has a whopping-big battery pack—95 kilowatt-hours. That translates into a range of at least 248.5 miles in European testing.
Tesla must defend lawsuit alleging abuse of foreign workers
Oct. 2, 2018 / 4:59 PM
(Reuters) - A federal judge has ruled that Tesla must defend itself at a trial over allegations it knew foreign workers at its California assembly plant were threatened with deportation if they reported an injury and worked long shifts that violated forced labor laws.
U.S. District Judge Lucy Koh, in San Jose, California, dismissed most of the seven claims against Tesla on Monday, but allowed two claims to survive, paving the way for the plaintiffs to seek documents and witnesses to build their case.
The decision comes as Tesla is under pressure to turn a profit and days after Chief Executive Officer Elon Musk stepped down as chairman to settle allegations by regulators that he misled investors.
Tesla has been plagued with safety complaints brought by workers, allegations that Tesla denies. Workers say that long hours and pressure to deliver vehicles quickly takes a toll, and some have pushed for a union.
Tesla said it investigated the allegations and broke ties with a subcontractor, ISM Vuzem, that it said did not live up to its expectations. “We’ve also since improved our supplier contracts and policies to better stop bad behavior,” it said in a statement.
According to the lawsuit, Gregor Lesnik of Slovenia came to the United States on a B-1 visa and worked 250 hours per month for less than $950, well below minimum wage. It also alleges that foreign workers were threatened with deportation or reduced pay if they reported injuries or became ill.
The 2016 lawsuit by Lesnik and Stjepan Papes of Croatia seeks class action status on behalf of foreigners with B-1 visas working at construction sites at U.S. auto plants.
Tesla was one of several automakers named as defendants, but the only one that was not dismissed from the case because plaintiffs only alleged to have suffered threats of deportation at Tesla’s plant in Fremont, California.
Koh denied a motion to dismiss for two Tesla subcontractors, Eisenmann Corp and ISM Vuzem because they operated at the same plant.
Eisenmann and Vuzem did not immediately respond to requests for comment.
Koh said her ruling was based on a “generous reading of the at times incomprehensible” lawsuit, but also said the allegations against Tesla and Eisenmann were “uncharacteristically specific.”
Koh rejected arguments that Tesla and Eisenmann were not liable because the alleged abuses were committed by Vuzem. Koh said a party that benefits financially from another’s abuses also bears liability.
The claims she dismissed alleged violations of the False Claims Act, Fair Labor Standards Act and the Racketeer Influenced and Corrupt Organizations Act, or RICO.
Elon Musk Tweet Appears to Mock the Securities and Exchange Commission
Tweet says the ‘Shortseller Enrichment Commission is doing incredible work’
Oct. 4, 2018 4:53 p.m. ET
Elon Musk’s Twitter account on Thursday appeared to mock the Securities and Exchange Commission only days after the Tesla Inc. chief executive settled fraud charges, suggesting the agency was enriching investors betting against the electric-car maker.
A 1:16 p.m. California time, Mr. Musk’s Twitter account tweeted, “Just want to [sic] that the Shortseller Enrichment Commission is doing incredible work. And the name change is so on point!”
About 40 minutes later, Mr. Musk responded to someone on Twitter who said he needed “a social team that can get attention without typos and without enraging the Shortseller Enrichment Committee.” Mr. Musk replied, “Sorry about the typo. That was unforgivable. Why would they be upset about their mission? It’s what they do.”
The bold tweets came less than a week after Mr. Musk agreed to step down as Tesla chairman for three years and have his Twitter messages and other public communications containing potentially material information vetted by the company.
The SEC last Saturday charged Mr. Musk with misleading shareholders and violating securities law by tweeting on Aug. 7 that he had funding secured to take the auto maker private.
A Tesla spokesman didn’t immediately respond for comment.
The tweet risks reigniting a fight with the SEC just as it appeared Tesla and Mr. Musk were moving past the regulatory challenges and putting the spotlight back on the business of building electric cars.
Going to if the court doesn't approve the Musk/Tesla/SEC settlement due to Musk's antics.
It’s not exactly taking the company private at $420 a share—but Elon Musk is poised to own more of Tesla soon.
In a Wednesday filling with the Securities and Exchange Commission, Tesla (TSLA) said that Musk, its chief executive and soon-to-be-ex-chairman, plans to buy $20 million of the company’s stock, issued by the company, at market prices “during the next open trading window.”
The purchase will deepen Musk’s already substantial stake in Tesla—though perhaps not by too much, in a mathematical sense. He recently owned some 42.8 million shares, according to FactSet, good for more than 25% of the company’s outstanding stock. Based on Tuesday’s closing prices, he’d acquire roughly 72,000 more.
Musk is Tesla’s biggest shareholder by far. Earlier this month, T. Rowe Price Group (TROW) disclosed that it bought 5.5 million shares of the company in the third quarter, bringing its stake to more than 10%—and making it the new number-two outside owner, after Musk and just ahead of Baillie Gifford.
Gilbert Passin, Tesla's VP of manufacturing, has left the company, according to a source familiar with the situation.
Emails sent to his Tesla account bounced, and neither Tesla nor Passin have responded to Business Insider's request for comment.
According to Passin's LinkedIn page, which says he is still at the company, he spent almost nine years at Tesla. From 2010-2013 he helped to launch the manufacturing of the Model S. Since then he has helped to launch Tesla's manufacturing efforts around the world, run its supercharger operations, and was involved in Tesla projects for Daimler and Toyota's RAV4.
Over the last year, senior employees from all parts of Tesla have left the company. HR head Gabrielle Toledano left this summer, followed by Sarah O'Brien VP communication, and Liam O'Connor Tesla's VP of supply chain management, to name a few.
"The mass exodus of people has reached unbelievable levels," one former Tesla engineer who asked to remain anonymous told Business Insider.
Tesla started the year with what Elon Musk called "production hell" as it attempted to ramp up manufacturing of its new Model 3 car. That was followed by what Musk called "logistics hell" as the company struggled to complete deliveries of the cars.
Tesla Advances in China, Buying Land Purchase for a Factory
Elon Musk’s electric-vehicle maker is speeding up construction of a plant in Shanghai in response to the U.S.-China trade dispute
Oct. 17, 2018 6:10 a.m. ET
SHANGHAI— Tesla Inc. gained a foothold in the world’s biggest market for electric vehicles, completing the purchase of land for its new Shanghai plant, the company announced.
“Securing this site in Shanghai, Tesla’s first Gigafactory outside of the United States, is an important milestone for what will be our next advanced, sustainably developed manufacturing site,” said Robin Ren, Tesla’s vice president of worldwide sales, in a statement issued following a signing ceremony in Shanghai on Wednesday.
The 210-acre site in Shanghai’s eastern Lingang district cost $140 million, according to a Shanghai government website tracking major land purchases in the city. Though it didn’t mention Tesla by name, its description of a large land sale concluded on Wednesday in Lingang almost certainly refers to the Tesla deal.
Tesla Chief Executive Elon Musk signed an agreement in July with the local government to build a factory in Shanghai. Telsa will wholly own the facility, which is intended to produce up to 500,000 cars a year by the end of the decade.
In a third-quarter production update this month, Tesla said it was “accelerating construction of our Shanghai factory” in response to the U.S.-China trade dispute. U.S.-built vehicles face a 25% tariff introduced by China in July in retaliation for new U.S. auto tariffs. The 25% is on top of the 15% tariff China levies on all imported vehicles.
China is Tesla’s No. 2 market after the U.S.; it sold about 17,000 cars there last year, compared with roughly 50,000 in the U.S. and 103,000 globally.
But the U.S.-China trade confrontation has driven up the cost of Tesla’s imported vehicles in China. Tesla’s cars cost 55-60% more in China than comparable EVs built locally, according to the company.
Having secured the land, Tesla is targeting “a capital efficient and rapid buildout, using many lessons learned from the Model 3 ramp in North America,” the company said. Auto analysts say it will take two or three years for Tesla to begin Chinese production.
That's going to get a chunk of people that were holding out for the standard battery to go for this mid-range battery. And this isn't a software limited long range battery
People that want the standard battery with premium package won't be able to take advantage of the $7500 tax credit, but they can get this mid-range version with 40 miles more range and qualify for the tax credit if they order now, and it'll only cost $1250 than if they ordered the standard battery with the $3750 credit
Oh chit. Tesla moved up their Q3 earnings release date to tomorrow. They were suppose to report in November. Maybe Musk can't wait to finally report a profit?
Q3 2018 analyst estimates
Loss of $0.30 per share (FactSet) . . . Had loss of $2.92 per share a year ago
Revenue of $6.01 billion (FactSet) . . . Was $2.98 billion a year ago
The automaker also made other price changes in its online design studio.
Last week, Tesla surprised many by launching a new battery pack for Model 3.
It wasn’t the long-awaited standard battery pack starting at $35,000, but it was a new and previously unannounced Mid Range battery pack that reduced the base price of the Model 3 to $45,000.
The price reduction is attributed to having fewer cells in the new pack’s modules, which is resulting in a range of 260 miles, according to Tesla.
Now the company updated the Model 3 online design studio last night and increased the price of the Model 3 with Mid Range battery pack to $46,000:
Oh chit. Tesla moved up their Q3 earnings release date to tomorrow. They were suppose to report in November. Maybe Musk can't wait to finally report a profit?
Q3 2018 analyst estimates
Loss of $0.30 per share (FactSet) . . . Had loss of $2.92 per share a year ago
Revenue of $6.01 billion (FactSet) . . . Was $2.98 billion a year ago
Wall Street is pretty skeptical. Some are projecting a loss of $0.15 per share. Experts suggest this is a big problem as the ASP of a Tesla should drop if they start producing the lower price Model 3s
It’s mainly thanks to many improvements to the Model 3 program, which not only became the best-selling car in the US in terms of revenue, but it is also becoming quite profitable.
We already expected that Tesla’s revenue would skyrocket this quarter thanks to the Model 3 ramp up resulting in 56,065 deliveries during the last quarter.
You add Model S and Model X deliveries to that amount and Tesla delivered an incredible 83,775 vehicles in Q3.
It resulted in record automotive revenue of more than $6 billion.
Tesla now says that “Model 3 was the best-selling car in the US in terms of revenue and the 5th best-selling car in terms of volume.”
They released the following impressive charts to illustrate the significance of this achievement:
That’s incredible for any kind of vehicle program and even more so for an electric vehicle that has been in production for about a year.
But what is even more surprising is that Tesla turned a profit of $312 million ($516 million non-GAAP) during the quarter.
That’s more money that Tesla has ever made since the automaker has consistently been reporting losses as it attempted to ramp up production.
Most analysts were guiding slight loses for the quarter but even those who expected profits didn’t envision those kinds of income over the last 3 months.
The discrepancy can be attributed to Tesla increasing the gross margin on the Model 3 much faster than most people anticipated.
The automaker only had a 5% gross margin during the second quarter and it guided 15% for the third quarter, which most analysts thought would be difficult to achieve.
Yet, Tesla actually delivered over 20% in gross margin for the Model 3.
They achieved that through two different approaches.
First off, the average price of Model 3 went up during the quarter because of the higher mix of all-wheel drive vehicles:
The Model 3 production system stabilized in Q3. We went from a steep S-curve to more gradual monthly improvements. Among other things, we made the changes necessary to enable production of an All-Wheel Drive (AWD) version of Model 3, and we did this without disrupting our production rate. We started the quarter producing only Rear Wheel Drive (RWD) Model 3s and ended the quarter producing almost entirely AWD cars. Even though AWD cars are significantly more complex to build, we produced 5,300 Model 3s in the last week of Q3.
But Tesla also says that it made Model 3 production significantly more efficient throughout the quarter.
The automaker claims that labor hours went down by more than 30% in just 3 months:“Labor hours per Model 3 decreased by more than 30% from Q2 to Q3, falling for the first time below the level for Model S and X.”
The company says that it expects the cost to continue to improve in Q4 while they also continue to increase the Model 3 production rate.
After market close today, Tesla released its financial results and shareholders letter for the third quarter 2018, which turned out to be a historic quarter.
We are updating this post with all the details from the financial results and shareholders letter.
The company delivered higher on revenue with a new record of $6.8 billion. It ended the quarter with a rare profit of $1.75 per share.
That’s significantly higher than what the street was expecting.
As we reported in our preview post, Wall Street was expecting revenue of about $5.667 billion for the quarter and a loss of about $0.53 per share.
It appears that the Model 3’s gross margin, which ended up being much higher than expected, made all the difference.
Tesla claims that Model 3 GAAP and non-GAAP gross margin were both over 20% in Q3. The company says that labor hours per Model 3 decreased by more than 30% from Q2 to Q3.
The automaker’s stock price is up 10% in aftermarket trading on the news.
The automotive business is clearly the star of this quarter, but Tesla’s energy business also progressed nicely, according to the shareholder’s letter.
In Q3, Tesla’s energy storage deployments grew to 239 MWh and they deployed 93 MW of solar energy generation systems.
The company still has a lot of debt and plans to repay parts of it during the current quarter, but its cash position remains strong.
It grew by $731 million during the quarter and it now stands at $2.9 billion.
Here we will be posting our follow-up posts about the earnings and conference call to expand on the most important points (refresh the page to see the most recent posts):
10-01-2018, 01:59 AM
