Meta, formerly known as Facebook
07-27-2012, 08:55 AM
#401
99 TL, 06 E350
LOL! I am more shocked at the people who are shocked that companies like Zynga are going down. These are nothing more the pump and dump ponzi schemes just like the rest of Wall Street.
07-27-2012, 09:01 AM
#402
AZ Community Team
Yea - $20 put option - I'll see the value of it at open, there will be time decay to deal with, so it depends how things open. I think this could be just the thing to put some downward pressure on FB that it's still an overvalued stock.
I think I have the price right - but am off by a couple months, I kinda wish I had the Sept or Oct $20 put - but we'll see.
I think I have the price right - but am off by a couple months, I kinda wish I had the Sept or Oct $20 put - but we'll see.
I'm new to puts so in the future I'll buy more into the future (3 months is too soon for me).
07-27-2012, 03:09 PM
#404
Q('.')=O
iTrader: (1)
http://money.cnn.com/2012/07/27/tech....htm?hpt=hp_t2
lawl douche
Mark Zuckerberg's net worth falls by $7.2 billion
07-27-2012, 03:12 PM
#405
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07-27-2012, 03:55 PM
#406
To put the $7 billion drop in context, the estimated net worth of Google chairman Eric Schmidt, based on his ownership stake in the search giant, is $5.5 billion. So you could say that Zuckerberg has lost more than a Schmidt-load of money.
07-27-2012, 06:11 PM
#407
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07-27-2012, 06:16 PM
#408
Senior Moderator
Still richer than me. 
07-27-2012, 07:41 PM
#409
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I wish I was boosted jack rich
07-27-2012, 08:08 PM
#410
Drifting
I bought $20 Sept puts, but paid too much for them ($0.90). I should have waited when they were ~$0.30 not too many weeks ago. None the less I can break even now, or maybe hold out and make a small profit.
I'm new to puts so in the future I'll buy more into the future (3 months is too soon for me).
I'm new to puts so in the future I'll buy more into the future (3 months is too soon for me).
07-31-2012, 11:32 AM
#411
$21.73 - Down $1.42 (6.14%)
07-31-2012, 11:54 AM
#412
Just heard about the 13 employees from Instagram.
FUCK FB, FUCK Zuckeerbeerg, and
FUCK INSTAGRAM!
I hope that shit gets hung up in FTC red tape forever. Here's hoping the GD Mayan's were right and we all get sucking into a black hole on 12/21/2012.
Then everyone's boat will be the same fucking size won't it? Ha, about this big --> . <--
FUCK FB, FUCK Zuckeerbeerg, and
FUCK INSTAGRAM!
I hope that shit gets hung up in FTC red tape forever. Here's hoping the GD Mayan's were right and we all get sucking into a black hole on 12/21/2012.
Then everyone's boat will be the same fucking size won't it? Ha, about this big --> . <--
07-31-2012, 02:52 PM
#413
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08-01-2012, 09:51 AM
#414
AZ Community Team
Broke briefly into the $20 range this morning, my Sept $20 puts are in the black
08-01-2012, 11:54 AM
#415
Drifting
I know one of the guys that works at instagram - they don't have shit yet - nothing has closed and it was a stock acquisition IIRC. Odds are it's going to be the VC's that invested get the $$$ with the founder and a couple other people to make out.
Why all the hate on people's success? They made a product that is immensely popular with out a ton of cost.
Why all the hate on people's success? They made a product that is immensely popular with out a ton of cost.
08-01-2012, 12:12 PM
#416
08-01-2012, 12:41 PM
#417
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What do you guys think about yelp?
Think it's gonna tank after earnings today?
Think it's gonna tank after earnings today?
08-02-2012, 01:19 PM
#418
Drifting
Under $20 - my put is now in the money with 15 more days to go.
Not that i'm well into the black I need to decide when I should sell. Can't imagine any good news for FB coming out anytime soon - so I bet the downward spiral continues.
Not that i'm well into the black I need to decide when I should sell. Can't imagine any good news for FB coming out anytime soon - so I bet the downward spiral continues.
08-02-2012, 02:37 PM
#419
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I just saw a blurb that 90 million of its users are fake... Meh a drop in the bucket compared to its total number...
08-02-2012, 03:37 PM
#420
Back above $20.
Aug. 17 Put expiration?
1st lockup period ends Aug. 20 so hold off on cashing in as long as possible.
Trying to decide if I should play MNST before earnings next Wed. I know shelves for Monster are usually pretty empty at stores i shop at, especially when they're on sale.
Aug. 17 Put expiration?
1st lockup period ends Aug. 20 so hold off on cashing in as long as possible.
Facebook Slips: Support at $16.50, Says Wedbush
Shares of Facebook (FB) were especially weak today, falling 84 cents, or 4%, to $20.04, and at one point falling as low as $19.82, a new low, amidst no apparent news.
The Wall Street Journal’s Paul Vigna earlier this afternoon had a write-up on the situation, relating that there’s been nothing to “resolve the main issues dogging the stock” of late.
“There’s huge negative sentiment [on the stock] and there hasn’t been a counter to that,” Facebook analyst Victor Anthony of Topeka Capital tells Vigna.
In a conversation this afternoon by phone, Wedbush Securities’s Michael Pachter put a finer point on it for me.
“You have sellers who are disgusted and buyers who are simply going to wait,” says Pachter, who has an Outperform rating on the shares and a $35 price target.
http://blogs.barrons.com/techtraderd...d=yahoobarrons
Shares of Facebook (FB) were especially weak today, falling 84 cents, or 4%, to $20.04, and at one point falling as low as $19.82, a new low, amidst no apparent news.
The Wall Street Journal’s Paul Vigna earlier this afternoon had a write-up on the situation, relating that there’s been nothing to “resolve the main issues dogging the stock” of late.
“There’s huge negative sentiment [on the stock] and there hasn’t been a counter to that,” Facebook analyst Victor Anthony of Topeka Capital tells Vigna.
In a conversation this afternoon by phone, Wedbush Securities’s Michael Pachter put a finer point on it for me.
“You have sellers who are disgusted and buyers who are simply going to wait,” says Pachter, who has an Outperform rating on the shares and a $35 price target.
http://blogs.barrons.com/techtraderd...d=yahoobarrons
Trying to decide if I should play MNST before earnings next Wed. I know shelves for Monster are usually pretty empty at stores i shop at, especially when they're on sale.
Last edited by AZuser; 08-02-2012 at 03:40 PM.
08-03-2012, 01:14 AM
#422
Suzuka Master
So i noticed that they found a way around my adblock I use on chrome. That could be a good thing for the future i guess since this thing is built on ads.
08-03-2012, 01:53 AM
#423
Always saw ads on Chrome, even with ABP. But still no ads on Firefox with ABP.
08-03-2012, 02:06 AM
#424
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i only goto FB via apps... 
very rarely log onto the website..
very rarely log onto the website..
08-03-2012, 11:48 AM
#425
$21.85 - Up $1.81 (9.03%)
08-03-2012, 12:31 PM
#426
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What a roller coaster, FB seems good for day traders... Buy sell buy sell buy sell buy sell buy sell 
08-05-2012, 10:10 PM
#427
Drifting
I shorted FB on 7/31 and wanted to short a long time ago and lost track of when shorting became an available. This stock should get down to $15 before the year's end IMHO. The fundamentals show an over-valued stock with lots of insiders wanting to sell:
Forward P/E (fye Dec 31, 2013)1: 32.95
PEG Ratio (5 yr expected)1: 1.58
Price/Sales (ttm): 9.92
Price/Book (mrq): 3.22
I got more excited about the shorting idea after I read an article regarding FB over-charging a customer in advertising. This customer did an independent audit and found the FB charges were 5x overstated. If FB does this to one customer, I find it very likely other customers have been ripped off as well- they are just too clueless to realize it.
Here's the link if you're interested: http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2012/...el-a-scam.html
Forward P/E (fye Dec 31, 2013)1: 32.95
PEG Ratio (5 yr expected)1: 1.58
Price/Sales (ttm): 9.92
Price/Book (mrq): 3.22
I got more excited about the shorting idea after I read an article regarding FB over-charging a customer in advertising. This customer did an independent audit and found the FB charges were 5x overstated. If FB does this to one customer, I find it very likely other customers have been ripped off as well- they are just too clueless to realize it.
Here's the link if you're interested: http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2012/...el-a-scam.html
08-06-2012, 07:18 PM
#428
http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/daily...3Rpb25z;_ylv=3
Timing isn't everything in life, but it helps.
And now that Facebook's (FB) stock has been cut in half since its May IPO, which priced at $38 per share, it's time to compliment the clever folks who sold when everyone else was convinced that playing the Facebook IPO was pretty much a sure thing. Ahead of the IPO I placed fair value for the social media giant somewhere between $16 to $24. Aaron Task and I discuss Facebook's valuation in the attached clip.
At the time of the IPO, of course, these sellers appeared almost selfless: demand for Facebook's stock was so intense that it seemed the inside sellers would soon look like schmoes for selling too cheap.
Alas, if there's one lesson that gets repeated endlessly on Wall Street it's that anything that seems like a free lunch almost certainly isn't.
And now, the Facebook insiders who sold on the IPO look, well, savvy.
So, who were these folks? How much did they make?
Here are some highlights:
Those shares are now worth $4.8 billion.
Yes, all of these Facebook insiders still own a lot of Facebook stock, so they're all getting gobsmacked by the collapse.
But still...
Nice timing!
And now that Facebook's (FB) stock has been cut in half since its May IPO, which priced at $38 per share, it's time to compliment the clever folks who sold when everyone else was convinced that playing the Facebook IPO was pretty much a sure thing. Ahead of the IPO I placed fair value for the social media giant somewhere between $16 to $24. Aaron Task and I discuss Facebook's valuation in the attached clip.
At the time of the IPO, of course, these sellers appeared almost selfless: demand for Facebook's stock was so intense that it seemed the inside sellers would soon look like schmoes for selling too cheap.
Alas, if there's one lesson that gets repeated endlessly on Wall Street it's that anything that seems like a free lunch almost certainly isn't.
And now, the Facebook insiders who sold on the IPO look, well, savvy.
So, who were these folks? How much did they make?
Here are some highlights:
- Mark Zuckerberg, Facebook's CEO, sold 30.2 million shares for $1.14 billion
- Accel Partners, an early Facebook investor, sold 57.7 million shares for $2.1 billion
- Peter Thiel, a very early Facebook investor, sold 16.8 million shares for $638 million
- DST Global, a Russian investment fund, sold 45.7 million shares for $1.7 billion
- Goldman Sachs, a Facebook investor, sold 24.3 million shares for $923 million
- Elevation Partners, a Facebook investor, sold 4.6 million shares for $175 million
- Greylock Partners, a Facebook investor, sold 7.6 million shares for $289 million
- Mail.ru Group, a Russian Internet company, sold 19.6 million shares for $745 million
- Mark Pincus, the CEO of Zynga, sold 1 million shares for $38 million. Mr. Pincus also dumped stock in Zynga in April, right before that stock crashed.
- Meritech Capital sold 7 million shares for $266 million
- Microsoft, a Facebook partner and investor, sold 6.6 million shares for $250 million
- Tiger Global, a hedge fund, sold 19 million shares for $722 million
- Reid Hoffman, a Silicon Valley investor, sold 943,000 shares for $36 million
In aggregate, Facebook insiders dumped 241 million shares for $9.8 billion.- Accel Partners, an early Facebook investor, sold 57.7 million shares for $2.1 billion
- Peter Thiel, a very early Facebook investor, sold 16.8 million shares for $638 million
- DST Global, a Russian investment fund, sold 45.7 million shares for $1.7 billion
- Goldman Sachs, a Facebook investor, sold 24.3 million shares for $923 million
- Elevation Partners, a Facebook investor, sold 4.6 million shares for $175 million
- Greylock Partners, a Facebook investor, sold 7.6 million shares for $289 million
- Mail.ru Group, a Russian Internet company, sold 19.6 million shares for $745 million
- Mark Pincus, the CEO of Zynga, sold 1 million shares for $38 million. Mr. Pincus also dumped stock in Zynga in April, right before that stock crashed.
- Meritech Capital sold 7 million shares for $266 million
- Microsoft, a Facebook partner and investor, sold 6.6 million shares for $250 million
- Tiger Global, a hedge fund, sold 19 million shares for $722 million
- Reid Hoffman, a Silicon Valley investor, sold 943,000 shares for $36 million
Those shares are now worth $4.8 billion.
Yes, all of these Facebook insiders still own a lot of Facebook stock, so they're all getting gobsmacked by the collapse.
But still...
Nice timing!
08-16-2012, 10:31 AM
#429
The sizzle in the Steak
When early investors were now able to sell.....well look what happened!
Facebook stock traded as low as $19.69 this morning.
oof!
...and who knows for sure yet if they actually dumped shares...it could just be a reaction to what may come.
Facebook stock traded as low as $19.69 this morning.
oof!
...and who knows for sure yet if they actually dumped shares...it could just be a reaction to what may come.
08-16-2012, 10:47 AM
#430
Pete2010's last chance to cash in on his puts.
Volume is already double what it normally is and we've only been trading for a little over 2 hours.
Volume: 92,986,209
Avg Vol: 46,270,300
Volume is already double what it normally is and we've only been trading for a little over 2 hours.
Volume: 92,986,209
Avg Vol: 46,270,300
08-16-2012, 11:05 AM
#431
Drifting
Actually got rid of them a few weeks ago where there was some solid downward pressure on the stock. Ended up with a 30% gain - was very pleased.
Going to hang tight playing FB now - puts are getting quite expensive since now people are realizing that it's no where near worth even $20 now.
Going to hang tight playing FB now - puts are getting quite expensive since now people are realizing that it's no where near worth even $20 now.
08-16-2012, 04:31 PM
#432
The sizzle in the Steak
This is a precursor to what's gonna happen come November when the mother load of shares will be "released" to be sold.
08-16-2012, 07:44 PM
#433
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How much are November puts?
08-16-2012, 10:36 PM
#434
Nov. 17 Puts
1st column is strike price - 5th is how much you'll pay for Puts (x 100) - 6th is how much you can sell your Puts for.
$18 Puts are $1.65 x 100 = $165. Break even will be $18 - $1.65 = $16.35 (less your brokerage fees). Do you think FB will drop below $16.35 by Nov 17?
$16 Puts are $1.00 x 100 = $100. Break even will be $16 - $1.00 = $15.00 (less your brokerage fees). Do you think FB will drop below $15.00 by Nov 17?
$16 or $17 Puts might be worth it.
1st column is strike price - 5th is how much you'll pay for Puts (x 100) - 6th is how much you can sell your Puts for.
$18 Puts are $1.65 x 100 = $165. Break even will be $18 - $1.65 = $16.35 (less your brokerage fees). Do you think FB will drop below $16.35 by Nov 17?
$16 Puts are $1.00 x 100 = $100. Break even will be $16 - $1.00 = $15.00 (less your brokerage fees). Do you think FB will drop below $15.00 by Nov 17?
$16 or $17 Puts might be worth it.
Last edited by AZuser; 08-16-2012 at 10:39 PM.
08-16-2012, 11:01 PM
#435
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08-16-2012, 11:45 PM
#436
Drifting
I think the stock will drop to 16-ish come year end which is why I don't mess around with puts. I can short oodles of stock if I want for $20 ($9.95 per trade).
If you're so sure the stock is going down why do you want to mess around with a PUT? You need to be correct in price direction and timing- suppose FB craters in December and you have a November put? You'll be wrong and lose your $100.
I know the argument about unlimited losses for a short, but that is what a STOP order is all about. Your loss will be greatly contained if things go wrong. My worst nightmare is MSFT buying FB. but I think FB would need to get down to $10 before that will happen. I'll be covering around 13ish.
Last edited by LaCostaRacer; 08-16-2012 at 11:49 PM.
08-17-2012, 01:33 AM
#437
If you shorted at $20, where would you put your STOP at, $21? $22? $23? The higher the STOP, the more you lose if it triggers.
Let's say I buy five $18 Nov 17 Puts ($1.65 x 500 = $825) vs shorting 500 shares at $20 with STOP at $21.
What if one day the price went up to $22 then went back down again to end the day at $20.xx? STOP would have been triggered and I'd be out $500.
If I wanted to get back in the game, I'd have to buy another short position. Again, 500 short at $20 with STOP at $21.
The next day, the stock is very volatile.... price goes to $22 before heading down and ends the day at $18. Oops. STOP triggered again... out another $500.
What if I decide not to wait for price to get below $16.35. Instead, I decide to resell my Puts for, say, $2.50 (though it could be higher).
My profit is at least [($2.50 - $1.65) x 500] = $425 (less broker fees, if any) vs a $1000 loss from shorting. If I set the STOP at $22, I'd be out $2000 in this scenario.
It's hard to predict where the price will go between now and then... that's why I think it'd be safer to go with a Put.
Let's say I buy five $18 Nov 17 Puts ($1.65 x 500 = $825) vs shorting 500 shares at $20 with STOP at $21.
What if one day the price went up to $22 then went back down again to end the day at $20.xx? STOP would have been triggered and I'd be out $500.
If I wanted to get back in the game, I'd have to buy another short position. Again, 500 short at $20 with STOP at $21.
The next day, the stock is very volatile.... price goes to $22 before heading down and ends the day at $18. Oops. STOP triggered again... out another $500.
What if I decide not to wait for price to get below $16.35. Instead, I decide to resell my Puts for, say, $2.50 (though it could be higher).
My profit is at least [($2.50 - $1.65) x 500] = $425 (less broker fees, if any) vs a $1000 loss from shorting. If I set the STOP at $22, I'd be out $2000 in this scenario.
It's hard to predict where the price will go between now and then... that's why I think it'd be safer to go with a Put.
Last edited by AZuser; 08-17-2012 at 01:36 AM.
08-17-2012, 08:19 AM
#438
Drifting
I don't know if the november lockup expiration will be much worse - I remember reading that everyone who started in the last 18 months is underwater on their options - so they won't be selling them at a loss. It's really just if the big guys at the top will sell theirs and push it down further.
It's still trading way too high as a multiple of earnings compared to Google or Apple.
It's still trading way too high as a multiple of earnings compared to Google or Apple.
08-18-2012, 09:51 AM
#439
Drifting
If you shorted at $20, where would you put your STOP at, $21? $22? $23? The higher the STOP, the more you lose if it triggers.
Let's say I buy five $18 Nov 17 Puts ($1.65 x 500 = $825) vs shorting 500 shares at $20 with STOP at $21.
What if one day the price went up to $22 then went back down again to end the day at $20.xx? STOP would have been triggered and I'd be out $500.
If I wanted to get back in the game, I'd have to buy another short position. Again, 500 short at $20 with STOP at $21.
The next day, the stock is very volatile.... price goes to $22 before heading down and ends the day at $18. Oops. STOP triggered again... out another $500.
What if I decide not to wait for price to get below $16.35. Instead, I decide to resell my Puts for, say, $2.50 (though it could be higher).
My profit is at least [($2.50 - $1.65) x 500] = $425 (less broker fees, if any) vs a $1000 loss from shorting. If I set the STOP at $22, I'd be out $2000 in this scenario.
It's hard to predict where the price will go between now and then... that's why I think it'd be safer to go with a Put.
Let's say I buy five $18 Nov 17 Puts ($1.65 x 500 = $825) vs shorting 500 shares at $20 with STOP at $21.
What if one day the price went up to $22 then went back down again to end the day at $20.xx? STOP would have been triggered and I'd be out $500.
If I wanted to get back in the game, I'd have to buy another short position. Again, 500 short at $20 with STOP at $21.
The next day, the stock is very volatile.... price goes to $22 before heading down and ends the day at $18. Oops. STOP triggered again... out another $500.
What if I decide not to wait for price to get below $16.35. Instead, I decide to resell my Puts for, say, $2.50 (though it could be higher).
My profit is at least [($2.50 - $1.65) x 500] = $425 (less broker fees, if any) vs a $1000 loss from shorting. If I set the STOP at $22, I'd be out $2000 in this scenario.
It's hard to predict where the price will go between now and then... that's why I think it'd be safer to go with a Put.
I would never make such a tight stop for a stock. I always account for some volatility in my holdings of up to 9%. For example, my most recent short position of FB had a loss until this week. I shorted at 20.22 on 8/3 and then FB went back up past 22 the next few days. I won't use a stop the first few days because things are volatile.
In your example, the stop for me would be $22.50 and not $21- since I would use a 9% value and round up to the nearest .50 increment. In loioking at the chart of FB, this 'imaginary stop' would still be in affect since FB peaked at 22.45 on 8/7 and then 8/13. I would consider 22.45 as some good resistance for FB based on this so a 22.50 stop is a great one to have on a short now.
I use stops more to protect profits when you have a decent gain and might not be able to punch out (vacation, travel, etc).
My point about using a stop was mostly to counter the biggest argument against shorting, which is INFINITE LOSS potential. The stop is designed to reduce that argument. It doesn't protect you from losses unless you have a tight STOP on a profitable position.
The other point I would make is I limit my short position to 2x my cash in account. Meaning if I short FB like I am, I have 2x the current FB value as cash in my account. I'm prepared to take a 100% loss if things go very ugly on me. Hopefully, that will never happen for FB or any other stock I happen to short- it's also a way of limiting how much stock I can short at one time. It's usually just one stock at a time.
08-29-2012, 11:38 AM
#440
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Should've bought YELP instead of this mess