Is the DOW going to burst at some point?
12-11-2015, 07:19 PM
#201
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12-11-2015, 07:45 PM
#202
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12-11-2015, 09:52 PM
#203
Safety Car
Good, as a young investor I'm not happy at all at this bull market. I'm eagerly awaiting a recession.
Time to put the equities up for sale so I can swoop up on tons of shares (just more into my Vanguard index funds of course!
and get in on the cheap. 
Of course on other hand I do NOT wish for anyone to lose their jobs and whatnot....but as an investor in my early investment career? pls bring on the recession! thank you.
Time to put the equities up for sale so I can swoop up on tons of shares (just more into my Vanguard index funds of course!
and get in on the cheap. Of course on other hand I do NOT wish for anyone to lose their jobs and whatnot....but as an investor in my early investment career? pls bring on the recession! thank you.
12-11-2015, 10:12 PM
#204
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lmao! 
well i know i did ok investing from 2009-2011ish.
But theres still plenty of opportunities to make money in a bull market.
well i know i did ok investing from 2009-2011ish.
But theres still plenty of opportunities to make money in a bull market.
12-16-2015, 12:36 PM
#205
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Less than 30 minutes to go... 
12-16-2015, 01:11 PM
#206
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Wow they actually raised the rates!
12-16-2015, 01:17 PM
#207
Race Director
no surprise there....
12-17-2015, 07:22 AM
#208
well since our company deals with rail and construction and we are seeing a softening of the US economy, the ride is IMHO going to get bumpy really quick...
12-17-2015, 10:10 PM
#209
Drifting
Dow: 17,495.8
Gold 1050.10
Dow/Gold: 16.66
USD: 99.32
In the last week, the markets have churned to go up a measly 3 Dow points in a 6 trading days. I was a little surprised that the markets rallied so much on Wednesday but not today when it gave away all those gains today. Now that interest rates are higher, certain industries and certainly the consumer will have a head wind to contend with.
So if you can argue that the low rates helped the economy I could argue that the higher interest rates will begin hurting the market. My personal opinion is that the Fed should have done this years ago so I'm not against the idea of raising rates. It's a head scratcher what the Fed sees in the form of data. My bet is the Fed felt pressure to raise these rates.
If you look at a chart of Fed raising rates and recessions, there is a high correlation to a subsequent recession in 1-2 years- sometimes even sooner. The Fed is wrong more than it is right in its interest rate decisions.
Gold 1050.10
Dow/Gold: 16.66
USD: 99.32
In the last week, the markets have churned to go up a measly 3 Dow points in a 6 trading days. I was a little surprised that the markets rallied so much on Wednesday but not today when it gave away all those gains today. Now that interest rates are higher, certain industries and certainly the consumer will have a head wind to contend with.
So if you can argue that the low rates helped the economy I could argue that the higher interest rates will begin hurting the market. My personal opinion is that the Fed should have done this years ago so I'm not against the idea of raising rates. It's a head scratcher what the Fed sees in the form of data. My bet is the Fed felt pressure to raise these rates.
If you look at a chart of Fed raising rates and recessions, there is a high correlation to a subsequent recession in 1-2 years- sometimes even sooner. The Fed is wrong more than it is right in its interest rate decisions.
Last edited by LaCostaRacer; 12-17-2015 at 10:12 PM.
12-18-2015, 09:54 AM
#210
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DOW down 215
12-18-2015, 10:07 AM
#211
Race Director
But how many of those rate increases were from 0% to 0.25%? I'm not convinced that that correlation will/can be extended to this rate hike...
12-18-2015, 02:22 PM
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down 332.76
12-18-2015, 04:01 PM
#213
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Finished down 367.29
12-18-2015, 09:45 PM
#214
Drifting
The other point I'll make is that interests have almost always been at or above 2% for the last 70 years. With that said, it's much less significant going from 2 to 2.25% than what happened on Wednesday.
Here is a link to a chart that shows how things play out from rate hike to recession. You'll see that the shortest incubation time was 1 month and the longest was 25 months for the last 12 rate hikes. 8/12's of these hikes had a recession in a year or less. I would argue that the economy of yesteryear was stronger than it is today in 2015 so I think we'll see a recession in less than a year- probably in July.
http://realinvestmentadvice.com/wp-c...ble-121715.png
Last edited by LaCostaRacer; 12-18-2015 at 09:48 PM.
12-19-2015, 08:07 AM
#215
^ recession? More like the bottom is about ready to fall out.....
12-31-2015, 12:26 PM
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$LEI
$7.85 +$6.20 +375.76%
$7.85 +$6.20 +375.76%
01-04-2016, 09:02 AM
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01-04-2016, 07:28 PM
#218
Chinese manufacturing down. markets world wide took a hit.... Dow -270+ for today....
01-04-2016, 08:22 PM
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As far as I'm concerned this is a good time to buy 
01-05-2016, 11:22 AM
#222
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In perhaps the most shocking of mea culpas seen in modern financial history, former Dallas Fed head Richard Fisher unleashed some seriously uncomfortable truthiness during a 5-minute confessional interview on CNBC. While talking heads attempt to blame China for recent US market volatility, Fisher explains "It is not China," it is The Fed that is at fault: "What The Fed did, and I was part of it, was front-loaded an enormous rally market rally in order to create a wealth effect... and an uncomfortable digestive period is likely now." Simply put he concludes, there can't be much more accomodation, "The Fed is a giant weapon that has no ammunition left."
Fisher appears to be undertaking a major "cover-your-ass" episosde, proclaiming that he was against QE3 which is what has forced "valuations to be very richly priced."
In my tenure at The Fed, every market participant was demanding we do more... "It was The Fed, The Fed, The Fed... in my opinion they got lazy.. and it is time to go back to fundamental analysis... and not just expect the tide to lift all boats... and as [The Fed] tide recedes we are going to see who is wearing a bathing suit and who is not"
Fisher appears to be undertaking a major "cover-your-ass" episosde, proclaiming that he was against QE3 which is what has forced "valuations to be very richly priced."
In my tenure at The Fed, every market participant was demanding we do more... "It was The Fed, The Fed, The Fed... in my opinion they got lazy.. and it is time to go back to fundamental analysis... and not just expect the tide to lift all boats... and as [The Fed] tide recedes we are going to see who is wearing a bathing suit and who is not"
01-05-2016, 11:48 AM
#223
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Hmmmm maybe who ever said that a recession happens whenever the Feds raise rates is true? 
01-05-2016, 07:43 PM
#224
01-05-2016, 08:33 PM
#225
Safety Car
Good thing I held off putting any more into the market over the past 6mo....looking to jump in when things finally start to really tank
01-06-2016, 02:19 AM
#226
Race Director
For 2015, the S&P was only down 0.73% (it's actually up 1.19% if you include dividends).
And a 1.55% drop on opening day of 2016 is hardly an omen.
01-06-2016, 10:56 AM
#227
Jan 02 2015 17,833 open
May 19 2015 18,312.39 close
Dec 31 2015 17,426 close
that does not concern you in the least bit? It should....
May 19 2015 18,312.39 close
Dec 31 2015 17,426 close
that does not concern you in the least bit? It should....
01-06-2016, 11:05 AM
#228
Race Director
01-06-2016, 10:04 PM
#229
the wild roller coaster
china's economy
rail shipments down
insurmountable debt carried by most industrialized nations
the market lost ground for the year and is going nowhere at all so far this year so far down nearly 500 pts for 3 trading days....
you see this as a good thing, how again?
china's economy
rail shipments down
insurmountable debt carried by most industrialized nations
the market lost ground for the year and is going nowhere at all so far this year so far down nearly 500 pts for 3 trading days....
you see this as a good thing, how again?
01-06-2016, 10:53 PM
#230
Safety Car
^^^Add in geopolitical shit storms all over and a very polarized and divided nation with shrinking middle class and very stagnant middle class wages.
But of course we will have to see as 2016 goes around.....if it truly loses ground lot it may be another recession like 2000/2008 since its about time due it seems.
But of course we will have to see as 2016 goes around.....if it truly loses ground lot it may be another recession like 2000/2008 since its about time due it seems.
01-06-2016, 11:55 PM
#231
Drifting
Gold 1093.30
Dow/Gold: 15.46
USD: 99.31
It seems clear to me that the Fed was DATE dependent and not data dependent like it was saying all this time. The data sucks and points to a recession so I want to be clear that the rate increase will only speed up the start of a recession- it's not the cause of the recession. Recessions are part of a predictable business cycle.
The problem is that people (like the FED) that should know better can't see any indications of a slowdown in the U.S.- all eyes are on China. Perhaps the best indicator of a slowdown is with the Transports- that industry should be doing great with cheap energy prices but yet only 20% on this industry is in a bullish trend- that is not a healthy sign. This points to a drop in goods being moved as well as people traveling- usually what happens during a recession and not when fuel is at decade lows.
Thursday's futures are -177 Dow points, China halted trading on Thursday, of the 18 industries I follow only 1 is still in a bullish trend (utilities), car dealers got clobbered today (LAD down 9.89%, CRMT -6.05), the Dow broke support on both daily AND weekly charts, the dow made a spread point and figure double bottom today. These are some ominous signs of trouble.
Who knows if you get a large crash one day or a series of 50+ point drops over the course of a number of weeks or months? The later scenario can wipe out those bottom fishers that think now is a good time to buy all the same.
On a positive note, look what gold has done since my last post- up $43 and gained a whole point on the Dow for the Dow/Gold ratio.
01-07-2016, 12:50 AM
#232
^^^Add in geopolitical shit storms all over and a very polarized and divided nation with shrinking middle class and very stagnant middle class wages.
But of course we will have to see as 2016 goes around.....if it truly loses ground lot it may be another recession like 2000/2008 since its about time due it seems.
But of course we will have to see as 2016 goes around.....if it truly loses ground lot it may be another recession like 2000/2008 since its about time due it seems.
01-07-2016, 01:13 AM
#233
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01-07-2016, 02:01 AM
#234
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not looking good tomorrow, Brent Crude futures fell to $32.16 a barrell, lowest since april 2004 
01-07-2016, 02:13 AM
#235
We're in for a nasty Thursday.
China Stocks: Trading Called Off for Second Time This Week - WSJ
China Stocks: Trading Called Off for Second Time This Week - WSJ
China Stocks: Trading Called Off for Second Time This Week
China’s stock market tumbled and scored its shortest trading day in its 25-year history
Updated Jan. 7, 2016 2:59 a.m. ET
SHANGHAI—China’s stock market tumbled and suffered its shortest trading day in its 25-year history on Thursday, as Beijing's growing tolerance of a weaker currency intensified concerns about capital flight and the health of the world's No. 2 economy.
Markets stopped trading about 30 minutes after they opened, as a newly installed mechanism to limit volatility was triggered for the second time this week. The benchmark Shanghai Composite Index ended the dramatically brief trading day down more than 7% at 3115.89.
China’s stock market tumbled and scored its shortest trading day in its 25-year history
Updated Jan. 7, 2016 2:59 a.m. ET
SHANGHAI—China’s stock market tumbled and suffered its shortest trading day in its 25-year history on Thursday, as Beijing's growing tolerance of a weaker currency intensified concerns about capital flight and the health of the world's No. 2 economy.
Markets stopped trading about 30 minutes after they opened, as a newly installed mechanism to limit volatility was triggered for the second time this week. The benchmark Shanghai Composite Index ended the dramatically brief trading day down more than 7% at 3115.89.
01-07-2016, 02:54 AM
#236
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European markets are down too
01-07-2016, 03:27 AM
#237
at some point all of this massive debt is coming home to roost and the market is not going to take kindly to that....
if Crude continues it's slide down past the point of being reasonable per barrel it will get even uglier as The Middle East effectively runs out of money.
The Saudis are in some deep poo and so is Dubai...
if Crude continues it's slide down past the point of being reasonable per barrel it will get even uglier as The Middle East effectively runs out of money.
The Saudis are in some deep poo and so is Dubai...
01-07-2016, 05:37 AM
#238
Race Director
Chinese markets halted for the 2nd time. Futures down 385. It will be interesting to see how the US markets handle this news. May be a great time to get some buys in...
01-07-2016, 08:39 AM
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01-07-2016, 09:50 AM
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So far dow recovered half its losses from earlier.