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Old 12-06-2018, 06:51 PM
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Originally Posted by oonowindoo View Post
^Samsung is not cheaper and being better is highly debatable too.

Tesla is not in very good shape as it is right now. I can't imagine them being any better if VW and Toyota decided to sell similar product at 50% of the price. Assuming their models offers similar features and performance as Model 3.
I was just shopping for a new phone and yes, Samsungs are definitely a couple hundred bucks cheaper than an equivalent iPhone
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Old 12-06-2018, 07:20 PM
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Yes they are $200 apart... but when both cost over $1200, i seriously doubt it makes any real difference to their buyers.
Biker was saying it is cheaper and it is better... Depends who you ask, Apple fans will tell you samsung is cheaper because it is cheap and it sucks. (I use Note 8 BTW)

So that is not a valid comparison.


VW and Toyota are sooooo much bigger than Tesla, i would compare the situation to be Mama Papa's shops vs. big corporation. While there are many who prefer the smaller shops, the Big corporations have their ways to make the small shops miserable and suffer a painful death, IF they chose to.
It almost has nothing to do with the product Tesla will be offering anymore.

Tesla was ahead of everyone and now all the big players decided to heavily invest in its market, does Tesla have the funds and resources to continue to stay ahead of everyone? Cuz that was their selling point.
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Old 12-06-2018, 07:27 PM
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It made a difference to me.

I dunno about you, but I rarely go burn $200 just because.
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Old 12-06-2018, 07:32 PM
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if you like apple, would you buy Samsung because it is 200 cheaper? or if you like Samsung, obviously you are not going to spend 200 more for Apple.
So yah it really makes no difference.. maybe it did to you... but most of the Android buyers will always buy some kind of android phones and Apple fans are hardcore as well...

Maybe they do exist, but i have yet met a Samsung/iphone user who makes the decision between Iphone and Samsung based on cost. most of them will buy the cheaper version of the same phone instead of jumping to the other side.
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Old 12-06-2018, 10:23 PM
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This is such a thread derail

I want to keep arguing with you but alas, this isnít the place. To be continued...

So how about them veedubs?
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Old 12-07-2018, 08:36 AM
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Originally Posted by kurtatx View Post
VW would likely dominate the European electric market first, but if they bring a $23,000 EV to the US, everyone might be toast.
But they won't. Someone mentioned that it costs Tesla about $38K to make the $35K version of the Model 3 (if that ever shows up). VW might be able to get that cost down a bit slightly but nowhere near $23K. They are not going to sell huge volumes of cars at a loss in hopes of putting someone else out of business.
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Old 12-07-2018, 12:38 PM
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Originally Posted by TacoBello View Post
This is such a thread derail

I want to keep arguing with you but alas, this isn’t the place. To be continued...

So how about them veedubs?
This happens to every thread in Car Talk at some point.
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Old 12-07-2018, 12:45 PM
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Originally Posted by biker View Post
But they won't. Someone mentioned that it costs Tesla about $38K to make the $35K version of the Model 3 (if that ever shows up). VW might be able to get that cost down a bit slightly but nowhere near $23K. They are not going to sell huge volumes of cars at a loss in hopes of putting someone else out of business.
Dont underestimate the bargaining power of VW and Toyota with their suppliers.
The cost sharing structure would be very different with VW/Toyota than Telsa.
VW and Toyota are not in business to put others out of business (even tho that could happen but probably unintentional), but they are in business to gain market shares and they will do whatever they need to gain those market shares, even if it means to sell cars at cost or lower. They can afford to do that... Tesla can't

For example, If it costs Tesla $38k to make the $35k version of the Model 3, i would think it should cost significantly less for Toyota and VW to build the same car, thus to sell them at a much lower price.
Tesla's whole supply chain has major issues and it is probably the reason why it costs them so much to build Model 3...
The silver lining is, it is because they cost so much, that is maybe why they have the status they do today.

Last edited by oonowindoo; 12-07-2018 at 12:48 PM.
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Old 12-07-2018, 06:52 PM
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Tesla is like an extreme example of when you don't let the beancounters win when it comes to engineering decisions.
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Old 12-07-2018, 07:02 PM
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Yes... they have sped up the electrification of auto industry. But at some point the bean counters will catch up to them. They cannot escape the fate of a big corporation as they continue to grow.
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Old 12-07-2018, 07:28 PM
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Originally Posted by oonowindoo View Post
Dont underestimate the bargaining power of VW and Toyota with their suppliers.
The cost sharing structure would be very different with VW/Toyota than Telsa.
VW and Toyota are not in business to put others out of business (even tho that could happen but probably unintentional), but they are in business to gain market shares and they will do whatever they need to gain those market shares, even if it means to sell cars at cost or lower. They can afford to do that... Tesla can't

For example, If it costs Tesla $38k to make the $35k version of the Model 3, i would think it should cost significantly less for Toyota and VW to build the same car, thus to sell them at a much lower price.
Tesla's whole supply chain has major issues and it is probably the reason why it costs them so much to build Model 3...
The silver lining is, it is because they cost so much, that is maybe why they have the status they do today.
Tesla has so much status that, should they ever go bankrupt, one of the major manufacturers would probably try to buy up their brand and technology.
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Old 12-07-2018, 07:33 PM
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Yah they are not going to let the perception to go waste... after all that is probably the most valuable thing they have built, cuz E-cars are depreciating like no other.
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Old 12-07-2018, 07:36 PM
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Originally Posted by oonowindoo View Post
Yah they are not going to let the perception to go waste... after all that is probably the most valuable thing they have built, cuz E-cars are depreciating like no other.
I hadn't heard that but a quick google search confirmed it. Tesla dealers offering $68,000 for a $95,000 Model S. Dang
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Old 12-07-2018, 08:16 PM
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Originally Posted by oonowindoo View Post
Dont underestimate the bargaining power of VW and Toyota with their suppliers.
The cost sharing structure would be very different with VW/Toyota than Telsa.
VW and Toyota are not in business to put others out of business (even tho that could happen but probably unintentional), but they are in business to gain market shares and they will do whatever they need to gain those market shares, even if it means to sell cars at cost or lower. They can afford to do that... Tesla can't

For example, If it costs Tesla $38k to make the $35k version of the Model 3, i would think it should cost significantly less for Toyota and VW to build the same car, thus to sell them at a much lower price.
Tesla's whole supply chain has major issues and it is probably the reason why it costs them so much to build Model 3...
The silver lining is, it is because they cost so much, that is maybe why they have the status they do today.
You’re entirely wrong, for one reason:

Both Toyota and VW are investor owned and investors NEVER want to lose money. Undercutting a bit? Sure. As long as profits from everywhere else can mask it (transparently) and doesn’t hurt investors. But taking a decent sized financial hit? Ain’t ever gonna happen.

I don’t doubt they can build a similar car for cheaper than Tesla. Tesla is still a baby in the manufacturing game. I’m sure VW and Toyota have efficiencies developed over decades. But build for way cheaper? I highly doubt it.

Last edited by TacoBello; 12-07-2018 at 08:19 PM.
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Old 12-10-2018, 12:41 PM
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#1 , we dont know if VW or Toyota will lose $$ from selling their "cheaper" version. All i said is they can afford to do so to enter a market to compete with Tesla. That is common practice in the business word, You can't just jump in and charge as much as the market leader for the same product. You Must offer some kind of incentive to start.

#2. Didn't Tesla say they lose $ from selling their $35k model 3 that costs them $38k to build? How are Tesla's investors any different from Toyota and VW?

#3 I really dont think there is any direct correlation between how much they charge on a specific model and how that will have real affects on the investor. Maybe on Tesla... not to Toyota and VW.
There are many factors that investors will gain or lose $. Just because you are charging at cost or lower than cost on 1 or 2 models does not mean the investors will loose $$. That is like saying you invested in Apple and they lowered their iPhone 11's MSRP by $200.... next year and all of a sudden you will lose $?

If anything, i see the total opposite, it does not matter how much VW/Toyota charges for their model 3 competitors. I think their stock price will rise due to the investment to compete with Tesla head to head = investors will earn $. Not sure if they will, but even if they lose in the beginning, it will have little to no effect on their business as a whole because the cost will be easily distributed. That is one of the biggest advantages for being #1 or #2.
I am not sure what happens to Tesla's investors' confidence when that happens.

Last edited by oonowindoo; 12-10-2018 at 12:51 PM.
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Old 12-10-2018, 01:53 PM
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Originally Posted by biker View Post
Samsung makes a cheaper/better phone than Apple.

Biker, who believes Tesla has reached cult status like Apple and will sell their wares regardless of competition.
Samsung doesn't make a cheaper/better phone than Apple in the same way that Honda doesn't make a cheaper/better car than a BMW. They are different products catering to a different market.

In full disclosure I use a Pixel 2 and love it, will never use Apple.

Originally Posted by TacoBello View Post
It made a difference to me.

I dunno about you, but I rarely go burn $200 just because.
upoorbro?

Also isn't $200CAD like $5?

Originally Posted by biker View Post
But they won't. Someone mentioned that it costs Tesla about $38K to make the $35K version of the Model 3 (if that ever shows up). VW might be able to get that cost down a bit slightly but nowhere near $23K. They are not going to sell huge volumes of cars at a loss in hopes of putting someone else out of business.
srs?

Auto manufacturing is all about economies of scale. This is how they get costs down with buying parts in bulk and creating manufacturing efficiencies. In 2017, VAG manufactured somewhere in the neighborhood of 10 MILLION cars. Tesla can hardly put out 100k a year. Each of these cars isn't 100% unique either so the economies of scale for various components can be leveraged across the entire portfolio, not to mention lower NRE costs for not reinventing/redesigning things, help enormously.

I bet a VW eGolf would cost just as much as a Tesla 3 if they didn't leverage almost the entirety of the Golf product to make it. Speaking of the eGolf, they were able to produce a car that has a 125mi range for a cost of ~$30k (before tax breaks) in a totally half assed attempt without even trying. If they toss in even a moderate effort at this, they will absolutely clobber Tesla in every measurable way.

Originally Posted by TacoBello View Post
Youíre entirely wrong, for one reason:

Both Toyota and VW are investor owned and investors NEVER want to lose money. Undercutting a bit? Sure. As long as profits from everywhere else can mask it (transparently) and doesnít hurt investors. But taking a decent sized financial hit? Ainít ever gonna happen.

I donít doubt they can build a similar car for cheaper than Tesla. Tesla is still a baby in the manufacturing game. Iím sure VW and Toyota have efficiencies developed over decades. But build for way cheaper? I highly doubt it.
Tesla is definitely investor owned in the same way every major manufacturer is. No one likes to lose money and Tesla mitigates the loss on the car by offering options that should be standard in a car of that price that have a much higher margin. Because of that, the $35k Tesla would never exist much in the same way you'll never find an absolute base model Porsche or MB anywhere.

I definitely believe VW can drastically undercut Tesla on this one. They can basically take an already fully developed car that they'd be doing anyway and toss an electric drivetrain in it. On the flip side, Tesla has to also develop (and pay for developing) an entire car. Additionally, VW can utilize said drivetrain on a multitude of products all at once with one design effort. Electric A4? Sure, the eJetta comes with that for free. The previously mentioned eGolf was basically free. Same goes with all the other MQB cars, lol. The economies of scale are going to really drive prices down. It's only a matter of time.
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Old 12-11-2018, 07:47 AM
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Originally Posted by SamDoe1 View Post
The economies of scale are going to really drive prices down. It's only a matter of time.
True, but on a pure EV car, the batteries are the biggest cost item and Tesla has been doing that for years now and way ahead of everyone else. VW may be able to make the rest of the car cheaper, but very unlikely on the battery, in the short term.
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Old 12-11-2018, 08:59 AM
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Originally Posted by biker View Post
True, but on a pure EV car, the batteries are the biggest cost item and Tesla has been doing that for years now and way ahead of everyone else. VW may be able to make the rest of the car cheaper, but very unlikely on the battery, in the short term.
Anyone notice how few Gen 1 Priuses are still on the road? EVs inherently make us buy new cars because most people wonít pay $10K for new batteries for a $2K car.

I am all for EVs, but as long as batteries are tough to change and really expensive I think they are actually more harmful than helpful.
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Old 12-11-2018, 11:45 AM
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Originally Posted by biker View Post
True, but on a pure EV car, the batteries are the biggest cost item and Tesla has been doing that for years now and way ahead of everyone else. VW may be able to make the rest of the car cheaper, but very unlikely on the battery, in the short term.
Audi has been doing the eTron for a while now. Jaguar has started the iPace line. BMW has the i3/i8, the 330e, 530e, and 730e. Ford has the Energi models, GM has the Bolt. All of these have been sidebar projects for these brands in addition to their "day job" and, as such, they haven't really put forth any actual effort in EV development. The minute they do, and it seems like now is that time, it'll be game over. Either that or Tesla will get bought out.

For example:
The Porsche Taycan EV doesn't begin production until the middle of next year, with deliveries at least a year away. Nevertheless, Porsche has done so well with Taycan preorders that earlier this month company CEO Oliver Blume said it would increase production. At the L.A. Auto Show, Porsche USA CEO Klaus Zellmer told CNET, "If all the people [who preordered] buy this car, then we are sold out for the first year." We aren't sure if Zellmer referred to the U.S. market specifically, but many thousands of hand-raisers have popped up all over the world.

We've read the company initially planned on producing 20,000 units per year, but the increased figure could go as high as 30,000, split between the sedan and the Taycan Sport Turismo. Confident in the product and the potential, Porsche planned for the bump by giving the Zuffenhausen facility, which will build the EV, a dedicated assembly line and paint shop.

In EV-hungry Norway, Porsche typically sells 600 new cars per year. When the Taycan preorder site opened there, nearly 3,000 potential buyers paid refundable deposits of roughly $2,250 to put their names on the build list. There's been a similar response in the United States based on Internet stories and comments about what's happening at the roughly 200 Porsche dealers. It appears dealers don't know their allotments yet, but Inside EVs said it will be "as many as 50" per store. If all dealers got 50 Taycans, that would make for around 10,000 U.S.-bound units, an entirely reasonable number with respect to Zellmer's comments.

Seems the deposit process isn't as straightforward in the U.S. as it is in Norway, France and Belgium, though. One U.S. hand-raiser wrote that the Porsche dealership in Bellevue, Washington, didn't ask for any money when he submitted his information, instead telling him that the dealer "will hold off on taking the $2,500 deposit Porsche will require until another date. We want you to keep your money working for you." Someone else, commenting on a different site, said he put down a $5,000 deposit and was 33rd in line at his unnamed dealer. A third registrant, mentioning that same Bellevue dealer, implied he hadn't paid anything either, but that buyers had attempted to make deposits as a way to jump the line.

Who are these people? According to Zellmer, over half the signups come from people who have never owned or don't now own a Porsche. The key bit of intel, however, was when Zellmer indicated where conquest buyers have come from. "Typically, if we look at our source of business," he said, "people coming from other brands, it's Audi, BMW, or Mercedes. The No. 1 brand now is Tesla."

A Norwegian intender said he felt his Tesla Model S leaned too much toward being a family car, and he signed up for the Taycan to get into something more focused on performance. Considering what the Model S can do, that's a fascinating rationale. But we'll likely discover a bunch more fascinating things about the Taycan and its effect on the market by the time it arrives.
And this is likely to be one of the more expensive and exclusive of the various new electric cars hitting the market in the next few years. Lower cost ones will sell even more.
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Old 12-11-2018, 11:56 AM
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Originally Posted by biker View Post
True, but on a pure EV car, the batteries are the biggest cost item and Tesla has been doing that for years now and way ahead of everyone else. VW may be able to make the rest of the car cheaper, but very unlikely on the battery, in the short term.

I think that is where we have different views on things:

VW and Toyota will get the battery cheaper than Tesla, that is a given. What we dont know is by how much. But given by the volume, i would assume significantly. otherwise, our whole Business 101 course was a waste.

If VW and Toyota really want to do it, which it seems they will. Worst comes to worst, they will just build or go buy their own battery plant. They are big enough just to do that.
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Old 12-11-2018, 12:03 PM
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I'm just sad because I like my car to be noisy (no fake engine noises please)

Instant torque is great, however. And not having to fill up. And blowing the doors off of supercars 2-3x the price of your car, with your daily.

This is a burgeoning market and it's not exactly clear how to forecast projections for demand quite yet. Up to 50 Taycans per dealer though this is for a car that Motor Trend estimated will be "less than 85k"...
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Old 12-11-2018, 12:35 PM
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With the exception like myself who have motion sickness, most of the people will get an EV as their primary or 2nd car eventually in the near future if the prices/range/recharging issue can get resolved.

The only way that gets resolved is if the big ones join the party.
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Old 12-11-2018, 01:57 PM
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I'd be down for an electric commuter motorcycle, if the decent ones weren't $16k, and if I could plug in at the office, even just with a standard wall plug.
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