The solid-state battery company QuantumScape debuted its stock last Nov. 27, and it promptly soared into the stratosphere—up 256% in less than a month. Media reports gushed that the startup was rivaling Tesla and had launched one of the most valuable stocks in the auto industry. Bill Gates became an investor. But then shares plunged 60% from the high, “with the trajectory resembling a free fall,” said InvestorPlace.com. An investor group filed a class-action suit against the company.

What happened? First, let’s define our terms. Solid-state batteries show enormous promise. They do away with the liquid electrolyte that makes conventional lithium-ion batteries heavy, as well as dangerous at high temperatures. These batteries can be lighter, with greater energy density, more range, lower cost, and faster recharge times. But the stock exuberance hides the fact that getting solid-state batteries to the market is difficult and will take some time. Companies are mostly working on them at the cell level—the battery packs for cars are far from ready.

QuantumScape, a California-based 2010 spinoff from Stanford University that has a joint venture with Volkswagen Group (which invested more than $300 million), said in January that it is indeed making great strides toward commercializing the cells. The company said it had created fire-resistant test batteries that continue to function after 1,100 cycles, retaining at least 80% of its capacity. “This corresponds to over 300,000 miles for a 300-mile battery pack and over 500,000 miles for a 500-mile battery pack,” the company said in a tweet. It hopes to commercialize its cells by 2024.

Two things sent the company stock in a downward trajectory. One was a Jan. 4 report published on Seeking Alpha, a crowd-sourced content service for financial markets, saying that QuantumScape’s batteries “are small and unproven” (smaller than an iWatch battery) “and never tested outside a lab.” Said the report, “They will likely never achieve the performance they claim.”
According to Seeking Alpha, “Building a solid-state battery that will function at the rates and temperatures needed for real-world applications is hard—very, very hard. So hard, in fact, that nobody has done it.”

Only a few days later, the New York law firm Gainey McKenna & Egleston announced a class-action lawsuit against QuantumScape on behalf of investors, noting a 40% drop in the stock price after the Seeking Alpha story ran. Investors have until March 8 to apply to become part of the class action. Calls to the listed attorneys, Thomas McKenna and Gregory Egleston, were not returned.

QuantumScape has made clear the batteries are still in the development stage, with results from testing small prototypes, not full packs. “There is much work ahead of us,” chief technology officer Tim Holme said Jan. 15.

In an interview, QuantumScape founder and CEO Jagdeep Singh said the company did not misrepresent its technology. “The Seeking Alpha story had no merit,” he said. “It read like it was written by someone who didn’t know anything about batteries.” Singh is passionate that his approach, using a ceramic solid-state separator, will succeed where others have failed.

Clearly, auto companies would love to have viable solid-state batteries, and some are reportedly further along than others. Nikkei.com reported in December, “Toyota plans to be the first company to sell an electric vehicle equipped with a solid-state battery in the early 2020s. The world’s largest automaker will unveil a prototype next year.”

Toyota confirmed its solid-state plans, but was a little more cautious about the timetable. “Next-generation batteries, such as solid-state and metal-air batteries, are safer and demonstrate higher performance than lithium-ion batteries,” said Ed Hellwig, Toyota Motor North America safety and quality communications manager. “We are currently working on the research and development, including the production technology of solid-state batteries, and we have achieved ultra-small battery electric vehicle driving. We are accelerating development aiming for commercialization by the first half of the 2020s.”

Building a solid-state battery for real-world applications is hard. So hard that nobody has done it.
General Motors has also worked on solid-state batteries, but isn’t being specific about its research, instead pointing to advances with its conventional Ultium batteries. By mid-decade, GM expects to have cells that will cost 60% less than today’s batteries, with twice the energy density. “We haven’t said much about future battery technology,” said spokesman Phil Lienert.

Ford and Hyundai have investments in Solid Power, a Colorado-based solid-state company. Solid Power CEO Doug Campbell told Autoweek that his company is seeing very good results from liquid-free 22-layer sulfide-based cells. “We hope to see commercially viable production, meaning batteries in cars that won’t cost an arm and a leg, around 2026,” he said, adding that major developments from Solid Power will come soon, perhaps at the end of the first quarter. “Stay tuned,” he said.

Solid Power said its cells have higher energy density than any currently available lithium-ion battery and can surpass 400 watt-hours per kilogram by 2022. The company said its “secret sauce” is the sulfide electrolyte powder it produces at its Louisville, Colorado, facility. Spokesman Will McKenna said, “Solid Power will transfer cell production to an external entity while producing solid electrolyte at scale.”

Campbell says that hype based on early solid-state results has been a problem. “The battery community has developed a bad reputation for overpromising and under-delivering,” he said. Absorbing this lesson might reduce the expectation among stock speculators for overnight miracles from battery companies. Thomas Edison nailed the issue in 1883, when he said, “The storage battery is, in my opinion, a catchpenny, a sensation, a mechanism for swindling the public by stock companies.”

Analysts agree on the likely benefits—and the hurdles to overcome. “Solid-state cells have tremendous promise and the potential to solve a number of challenges such as stability when fast charging,” said Sam Abuelsamid, principal analyst for e-mobility at Guidehouse Insights. “However, no one as yet has managed to transition from hand-made samples to scaling up both cell size and production volume to the point where it would actually be practical to power a vehicle. Most people I’ve spoken with who actually know about batteries don’t expect to see solid-state cells in any volume until late in the decade.”

Solid Power is making progress. The photo shows its 22-layer, 20 amp-hour all solid-state lithium-metal cell compared to the company’s first-generation 10-layer, two amp-hour cell. SOLID POWER Abuelsamid said that Toyota isn’t expected to actually launch its solid-state batteries before 2025, and GM and its LG partner “are also going down this path, but don’t expect solid-state to be useful until late in the 2020s at the earliest.” About QuantumScape, he said that its design “looks interesting, but I’m not sure it’s actually that viable with the idea of building up the anode while charging.”

One hang-up for workable solid-state batteries is that when they use lithium-metal anodes, small crystal branch-like spikes called dendrites develop, leading to shorter cell life and safety issues. Samsung claims to have solved this problem with silver-carbon composite layer anodes. It said last year that its cells could be used for downsized batteries with 500-mile range and 1,000 cycles—with 500,000 miles of potential life. Samsung doesn’t have a timetable for commercialization, though. “The product of this study could be a seed technology for safer, high-performance batteries of the future,” the company said.
“The battery community has developed a bad reputation for overpromising and under-delivering.”

Singh is dismissive of Samsung’s approach and says QuantumScape is the only company to have actually solved the dendrite problem. Tesla co-founder JB Straubel, its chief battery expert for many years, is on QuantumScape’s board and said during a Zoom call last December, “It’s incredibly exciting to see these results and what the team has achieved.” Also encouraging on the same call was Nobel Prize winner Stanley Whittingham, a lithium-ion battery pioneer. “It looks like real progress at QuantumScape,” he said.

Despite automaker plans and supplier breakthroughs, there have also been setbacks and ambiguities. In 2015, the British vacuum cleaner giant Dyson paid $90 million for the Ann Arbor, Michigan-based Sakti3, a solid-state battery company headed by former University of Michigan engineering professor Ann Marie Sastry.

Dyson was going to spend billions and build its own electric cars. But in 2017, Dyson abandoned at least some of its expensive Sakti3 patents. And in a statement to employees last year, founder and chief engineer James Dyson said, “Though we have tried very hard throughout the development process we simply can no longer see a way to make [the battery car project] commercially viable. ... There’s huge sadness and disappointment. Ours is a life of risk and of failure. We try things, and they fail.”

Sastry, who declined to speak on the record, left Dyson (also in 2017) and then announced Amesite, “an artificial intelligence-powered software company that delivers engaging and cost-effective online courses and programs for K-12 schools, universities and businesses on its cloud-based platform.”

In a statement to Autoweek, Dyson said its solid-state battery work is ongoing. “We are absolutely still investing in solid-state and continue to work on this technology in Ann Arbor,” the company said. “Dyson engineers are working on cells, materials, and electrodes, which enable higher energy densities, and are safer and more environmentally friendly. Dyson’s research spans the U.S., Japan, Singapore, and the U.K. A key focus is the commercialization of Dyson’s proprietary solid-state battery technology. It promises safer, cleaner, longer-lasting, and more efficient energy storage than today’s existing batteries.”

French billionaire Vincent Bolloré was the driving force behind Autolib’, an electric car rental business, in 2011, using approximately 2,500 small vehicles with his company’s own solid-state Lithium-Metal-Polymer (LMP) batteries. It started in Paris and spread to other French cities, eventually opening a branch, BlueIndy, in Indianapolis with the same cars. But the French service closed down in 2018, and BlueIndy in 2019.

The company says its batteries, as seen in the articulated Daimler eCitaro G Bluebus coaches and Autolib’ cars, have covered more than 186 million miles. The Bolloré Group remains committed to its technology and through its Blue Solutions subsidiary has constructed factories in France and Canada to build LMP batteries. Adrian Tylim, head of business development in North America for Blue Solutions, said the car rental businesses served their purpose and proved the efficacy of LMP batteries.

Tylim pointed out that Bolloré has the world’s only commercially viable solid-state battery packs, and that gives it a lead in developing the next generation of cells, which should be able to function at ambient temperatures. “We’re not there yet, but it’s incremental progress that we need,” he said.

Ram Chandrasekaran, principal analyst for transportation and mobility at Wood Mackenzie, makes a crucial point. Automakers might be able to put solid-state batteries into cars by the latter part of the 2020s, but it may initially be as a showcase for the technology—not quite yet a viable market proposition. “They will still be much more expensive than conventional lithium-ion batteries,” he said. “It will take a bit more time for them to become affordable and trickle down to installation in mass-market cars.”

The solid-state space, dormant for many years, is now heating up. Other players include Ionic Materials and Sion Power. Will one of these companies produce the battery of the future? It seems likely.

Toyota plans to introduce two new battery-electric vehicles in the U.S. this year in addition to one plug-in hybrid, putting a firm timeline to its EV plans after showing years of skepticism about the demand for electric vehicles. The effort is part of a plan to electrify a large portion of its model range, with Toyota aiming to have 40% of its U.S. lineup composed of battery-electric vehicles, hydrogen-electric vehicles, hybrids, and plug-in hybrids by 2025. The automaker also hopes to dial that share up to 70% by 2030.

Just what could we expect later this year when it comes to EVs?

Toyota has showed teaser images of two models over the past several months, suggesting that a Camry-sized EV is likely in the works for later this year alongside an SUV that could be close to the RAV4 in footprint, if a lower and more rakish in profile, as a released sketch suggested.

The prospective SUV model was previewed late last year when it was announced that the automaker would partner up with Subaru on an electric SUV project, which at the time was said to be aimed for Europe. A midsize car was shown in a Toyota presentation graphic under wrap this week, not revealing much about its design except for a traditional sedan layout. These two expected segment entries are viewed to be in line with the automaker's announced plans for battery-electric models, effectively offering EV options to Camry and RAV4 buyers. Both vehicles will be underpinned by the company's e-TNGA platform, developed specifically for EVs.

"We believe the fastest way to lower greenhouse gases in the transportation sector is to offer drivers lower carbon choices that meet their needs," said Gill Pratt, chief scientist of Toyota Motor Corporation and CEO of Toyota Research Institute. "At every price point and with multiple powertrains, we can put more people in cleaner automobiles across North America to have the greatest near-term impact on total carbon emissions."



Despite being a hybrid pioneer with the Prius, Toyota has been a notable holdout when it comes to pure electric vehicles, with company executives occasionally voicing skepticism of EV market shares. Toyota's reluctance to jump into the deep end of the EV pool has been interpreted in different ways over the years, with some analysts pointing to the conservative nature of the company as well as the low rates of EV adoption outside of China, northern Europe and the U.S. In short, once Norway, Germany, Holland, China, Denmark, Austria, the U.K. and a few others were accounted for, other countries' demand for EVs was not worth the effort.

"Toyota's been on a victory lap of (and certainly will continue to) offering more hybrids in all shapes and sizes," Robby DeGraff, Industry Analyst at AutoPacific told Autoweek. "People at dealerships are skipping past the original 'hero' of hybrid cars, the Prius, and discovering different paths to go down like the much more affordable Corolla Hybrid that returns 50+ mpg or the new family-friendly Sienna now with standard hybridization. But with traditional legacy automakers like Volkswagen, GM, and Hyundai actively pivoting to full electrification, Toyota needs to catch up and do so very quickly. Especially because there's a solid handful of EVs already on sale yet not a single one of them wears the Toyota badge."
"Toyota needs to mirror that passion it has for its hybrids and also put it towards pure-electrics," DeGraff added. "The RAV4 Prime is an impressive recent example of this 'next step,' taking its most-popular crossover and adding (among other things) a capable plug-in hybrid powertrain to it with 42 miles of range. They've got this new promising e-TNGA platform ready to go in the Toyota wheelhouse, so let's also carry that momentum forward to offerings like a RAV4-sized battery-electric crossover, or larger three-row crossover to take on VW's ID.6 due to bow here in a few short years."

Toyota has also been cognizant of the higher cost of ownership of battery-electric vehicles compared to hybrids, hence its early focus on hybrids for over a decade.

"The PHEV is much less expensive to buy and own, compared to the BEV," Toyota's research found. "Without any incentives, the five-year Total Cost of Ownership (TCO) of a long-range BEV is significantly higher than the PHEV. If you include incentives available this year (2020), the TCO of a long-range BEV is much higher."
This year will be a turning point for Toyota's electrification efforts, but it remains to be seen in just what kind of environment the first two EVs will land. The automotive market will still be responding to the effects of the pandemic late this year when the two are expected to bow, even though it has shown a sharp rebound in many, if not all, EV-friendly markets.

"It's important that Toyota doesn't ignore its sedans too when it comes to picking which segments to electrify," DeGraff added. "The Camry and Corolla remain strong sellers and could be worthy candidates for PHEV or even a BEV versions. Not everyone looking to jump into electric car ownership will want a crossover, regardless of size, and we shouldn't force them. Younger shoppers especially, still prefer sedans."

Toyota is no stranger to building off-road-capable SUVs and pickup trucks. The Japanese brand currently builds a slew of TRD Pro variants, including the Tacoma, Tundra, Sequoia, and 4Runner, plus the legendary Land Cruiser (for now). Despite catering to off-road enthusiasts, Toyota has never taken a direct swing at the Jeep Wrangler or the upcoming Ford Bronco; even the old FJ Cruiser was not a direct Wrangler rival. But that may soon change.

According to a USPTO filing made on March 10, 2021, Toyota may be preparing a new model called the "Trailhunter." Though the inclusion of the word "trail" doesn't always relate to off-road prowess (see Chevrolet Trailblazer), we believe the name "Trailhunter" points to something rugged.

There are no other details available about the Toyota Trailhunter, but the trademark filing is "intended to cover the category of automobiles and structural parts thereof." Toyota knows there is a market for dedicated body-on-frame off-roaders, as evidenced by the high prices commanded by old FJ Cruisers. The company is currently developing a new TNGA-F architecture that will underpin the next-generation Tacoma, Tundra, Sequoia, and 4Runner. Still, Toyota has been coy on the return of a retro-themed model like the FJ.

If Toyota is not ready to bring back the legendary FJ name, perhaps it could take on Ford and Jeep with a brand-new model like this rumored Trailhunter. It's certainly a cool name, and we'd consider one if it boasts similar off-road capability.
It's also possible that the Trailhunter name could go on a new series of special editions, similar to the 2021 Trail Editions. The name could just as easily go unused, as many trademarks of this nature tend to. Toyota never ended up putting the TJ Cruiser into production and we have yet to see Toyota do anything with its recent Celica application. This space will be interesting to watch.

Here it is, one of the most important Toyotas in recent history, yes, even up there with the new Supra. Why is that? This, the Toyota bZ4X, is the company's first electric car it will offer on a large scale across the globe. It's also the first to use the new e-TNGA electric car platform, which will underpin additional Toyotas as well as Subarus.

Disappointingly, Toyota hasn't given any specific details about the new EV. All we know is information the company has previously released about it. The e-TNGA platform was co-developed with Subaru, and as such this bZ4X features all-wheel drive. But that's really all the company would say about what powers it.


At least we get a really clear look at the crossover, which is technically a concept, but it's quite obvious this is basically the production car. You can tell in its conventional door handles, mirrors, and all the other functional features such as seatbelts, and various interior buttons and switches. That's not to say it's not a bold or boring design. It's a bit like a RAV4, but with a lower roof, more rakish hatch, and a super stretched wheelbase. The overhangs are quite short, too. There are quite a few angular lines and creases across the body that make it interesting if a bit busy. The interior is quite futuristic and airy. The high-mounted instrument display placed deep on the dashboard is quite distinctive, as is the cloth-covered dash and floating center console that bridges to the center stack.

The bZ4X will go on sale globally in the middle of next year. Exact sales timing for the U.S. version hasn't been set yet. The model will be the first of a new electric sub-brand for Toyota called bZ, which stands for "beyond zero." By 2025, Toyota will have 15 of these full electric bZ models on sale, and they will be part of a plan that includes 70 total electrified vehicles, some of which will be hybrids and fuel cell vehicles. Also intriguing is that a hybrid truck and an electric truck are among the electrified models in the works. But with no further specifics, we'll have to wait and see what these new Toyota EVs will be like.

Despite being a hybrid pioneer with the Prius, Toyota hasn't been as eager to embrace the world of EVs, only recently announcing moves to field electric vehicles in the coming years. But aside from a handful of periodic statements regarding a number of impeding models, the automaker hasn't said much about longer-term plans for research and development, or what its lineup will look like by 2030.

For starters, Maeda indicated that the automaker is working on a new type of lithium-ion battery that will be introduced in the second half of the decade, which will be one of the three main types of batteries that Toyota plans to commercialize. The second type, of course, is a nickel-hydride battery for hybrids, while the third type—yet to arrive on the mass market—is a solid-state battery.

"In June last year, we built a vehicle equipped with all-solid-state batteries, conducted test runs on a test course, and obtained driving data," Maeda said during a press conference with journalists.

"Based on that data, we continued to make improvements, and in August last year, we obtained license plate registration for vehicles equipped with all-solid-state batteries and conducted test drives," he added."

However, Maeda cautioned that one of the issues that Toyota has run into with solid-state development is short service life. This aspect runs contrary to Toyota's goal of offering a long battery life in its electric vehicles, with Maeda adding that the automaker needs to continue development of solid electrolyte materials used in solid-state batteries. Toyota has been testing solid-state batteries in vehicles out in the real world for about a year.

In all, Toyota plans to invest $13.5 billion in battery development by 2030.

Maeda also indicated that Toyota is cognizant that vehicle battery demand will grow in the coming years, and that the automaker is planning to build a certain percentage of those battery packs by itself, instead of relying on suppliers.

"With the rapid expansion of electrified vehicles, we are working to build a flexible system that can stably supply the required volume of batteries at the required timing while meeting the needs of various customers in each region around the world," Maeda told reporters.

"In pursuit of our battery development concept of achieving batteries that can be used with peace of mind, we will establish the needed technologies by conducting a certain amount of in-house production, and we will cooperate and collaborate with partners who understand and will put into practice our concept," he added. "We will also proceed with discussions with new partners in some regions."

Still, Toyota remains realistic about the demand for battery-electric vehicles across a variety of markets, and does not visualize a monolithic industry turn exclusively to BEVs in all markets in the coming years—and perhaps decades. The automaker continues to indicate that it sees a future for hybrids and internal combustion vehicles alike for quite some time, and in certain regions for bioethanol as a form of CO2 reduction, and it has remained agnostic on concrete targets regarding the share of EVs and hybrids by the end of the decade.

"At the moment, because we can provide HEVs at a comparatively affordable price, in places where the use of renewable energy is to become widespread going forward, electrification using HEVs [hybrid electric vehicles] is among the effective ways of reducing CO2 emissions," Maeda said.

"On the other hand, Toyota believes that the increased use of zero-emissions vehicles, or ZEVs, such as BEVs, and fuel-cell electric vehicles, or FCEVs, is important in regions where renewable energy is abundant," he added.

Still, Maeda reiterated Toyota's goal of achieving carbon neutrality in 2050, with the automaker readying a full lineup of electrified, if not pure-electric, vehicles.

When it comes to seeing the first fruits of Toyota's EV efforts, the bZ4X is headed stateside in a matter of months to kick off Toyota's gradual embrace of battery-electric models. The RAV4-sized bZ4X, revealed in concept form earlier this year and due on sale in 2022, will be based on the e-TNGA platform that will underpin a number of battery-electric models. But overall, Toyota's strategy still reflects a measured approach to EVs with a heavy emphasis on hybrids, cognizant of the fact that many individual countries are not seeing the EV adoption rates of western Europe or China.

It's no secret Toyota trucks don't get updated often, and when they do, it's not always a big change. The differences between the second- and third-generation Tacoma weren't huge, and the third-gen has been on sale since 2015 with a minor facelift last year. The mechanically related 4Runner? It's been mostly the same since 2010. That all changes for the next generation of each, when they move to an all-new global platform shared with the legendary Toyota Hilux pickup.

While fans are perfectly happy with the 2021 toyota tacoma and generally think the 2021 Toyota 4Runner only needs a few updates, both are in line for some major changes. Industry watchers will be aware Toyota has been moving all its cars and SUVs onto various sizes of its Toyota Next Generation Architecture (TNGA) over the past decade, and now it's time for the pickup trucks and old-school SUVs to follow suit.

Architectures or platforms are the basis on which a vehicle is built. In modern design, they're really a set of measurements and "hard points" that can be shared by multiple vehicles to reduce cost and complexity. With things like the position of the firewall, the locations of the axles, the track width, and more fixed, engineers can easily design different cars or SUVs out of those dimensions without having to design the whole vehicle from scratch.

The Tacoma and 4Runner already share a platform, and hardcore Toyota fans will know they share a common ancestor with the Toyota Hilux. Originally mechanically related to the Toyota Pickup, the two diverged in the mid-1990s. Now, the Tacoma and 4Runner are sold in the Americas and the Hilux and Fortuner (a global 4Runner-like SUV based on the Hilux) are sold elsewhere. Now, as Toyota consolidates its various global platforms for similar vehicles, the Tacoma, 4Runner, Hilux, and Fortuner are all moving onto a new next-generation platform.

While specific details are scarce, we can take a lot of direction from the latest project in this strategy, the consolidation of the Tundra pickup and Land Cruiser SUV onto one platform. The two vehicles now share a common ladder frame, which is built in different lengths depending on the model but is otherwise the same. All share the same suspension design: control arms in front and a five-link setup with coil springs and a live axle in the rear. Under the hood are common mounting points for a shared 3.4-liter twin-turbo V-6 and 10-speed automatic transmission, and the ability to easily share other powertrains in the future.

For the Tacoma, 4Runner, Hilux, and Fortuner, the strategy will almost certainly be the same. A shared frame, shared suspension design and components, and some sharing of powertrains. The nice thing about a ladder frame is you can bolt any cab or body you want to the top of it, so each vehicle can utilize design elements specific to their markets. In other words, the Tacoma and Hilux won't necessarily look like each other (they don't today), but they'll be effectively the same underneath. Same for the 4Runner and Fortuner.

Platform sharing also allows for electrical architecture sharing, meaning every vehicle on a platform can use the same tech. That goes for everything from infotainment systems to off-road driving aids and safety systems. This will be a big step forward for all the trucks involved, as none are currently running Toyota's latest and greatest tech.

The unanswered question at this point is the fate of the Lexus GX and Toyota Land Cruiser Prado, which also use a version of the chassis found under the 4Runner and are similar in size to both the 4Runner and Fortuner. Toyota officials wouldn't confirm if the GX and Prado will move onto the TNGA platform variant that will be used for the Tacoma/Hilux/4Runner/Fortuner. But if the GX and Prado are to survive another generation, there's no sense in constructing a different platform for them.

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