Probably since the invention of the automatic transmission, no reviewer worth his or her salt could admit that they didn’t prefer a manual transmission. When we’re reviewing a car, like a Jaguar XKR, for example, that doesn’t offer a stick shift, we have to say that we’re sorry this car doesn’t allow us to row our own or someone might threaten to revoke our gearhead credentials. But in our view, this old way of thinking — which continues to be inherited by young car enthusiasts — is arguably ludditic and without much merit.

When reviewing the 20 or so cars that I drove over the recent two-day Western Automotive Journalists media test event in Monterey, California, what came through very clearly was the extent to which transmissions have changed and improved in the past few years.

When I started driving, things were much simpler. It was absolutely essential to learn how to use a clutch and be able to change gears smoothly to prove you were a real driver. If the car you were driving didn’t have “four on the floor,” it just wasn’t cool. An automatic transmissions was something that your mother and father preferred for the family’s Oldsmobile station wagon.

There were certainly some good reasons to prefer a manual transmission for driving performance: In order to provide smooth gear changes without a clutch, the automatic transmission relied on a torque converter (essentially two propellers with fluid between them) to transfer power from the engine to the wheels, which was inherently inefficient. Until very recently, automatics had only two gears, so much of the time the engine was able to use only a fraction of the torque it was capable of generating. Finally, relying on valves and hydraulics to change gears, the automatic was slow when changing ratios and often chose to change gears at an awkward moment.

Sure, there were some problems with the standard transmission: it was challenging to learn to use, requiring finesse to release and engage the clutch while shifting gears and delivering exactly the right amount of throttle through the process. Races frequently were lost because a driver made a mistake in this process on just one of the thousand or more precise gear changes required during a long race. On the street, as traffic became more congested, the need to push and release the clutch frequently in stop-and-go situations was hard on both the car and driver.

But, bottom line, it was more efficient than the automatic in transferring power and allowing the engine to run within its optimal power range, it was lighter, and in the hands of a good driver, was able to change gears considerably faster than the automatic.

But things are changing more rapidly than I think many enthusiasts would like to admit. At Laguna Seca, the high-performance luxury cars we were driving were invariably equipped with automatic transmissions for the simple reason that the manufacturers say that there’s almost no demand for manual transmissions on say, a Maserati or high-end Mercedes. However, the improvements that have been made over the past five years have tackled all of the problems inherent in the old “slush boxes” and significant progress is being made.

Though all the cars we were driving still employed torque converters, manufacturers have found various ways to make positive clutch-like connections at certain engine speeds to improve efficiency. In what is likely to be a more effective long-term solution, Mercedes has just announced that it will be replacing the torque converter with a multi-plate wet clutch on AMG models, similar to Volkswagens much-praised DSG. Without a doubt, we can expect to see that technology start trickling down through the price chain — almost every automaker is working on some form of automated dual-clutch transmission.

To improve the efficient use of the the engine’s power band, modern automatics now offer five to eight separate gear ratios, with the Maserati tranny offering seven, so the efficiency issue is also pretty much a thing of the past.

It has generally been possible to control the gear ratio in an automatic transmission in some manner under specific conditions (forcing the car to start in its highest gear in icy conditions, or to stay in its lowest gear to use engine braking in a long hill descent, for example). Now, with the additional gears and the incorporation of paddles or buttons for transmission control, as inspired by open-wheel racing, nearly every “performance automobile” from the Maserati to the MINI offers a means to manually control what gear is being used.

In addition, as computer controls get more sophisticated, many of these cars offer adaptive or manual adjustments to the speed at which the shift occurs, and many can actually blip the throttle on downshifts to match rpm, increasing the speed, smoothness and efficiency of the gear changes.

While most drivers play with these “slappy paddles” for awhile and then go back to leaving the car in the full automatic mode, the controls are very useful for track driving, where you want to be able to make sure the car not only is in the proper gear to go into a corner, but also doesn’t decide to upshift just at the point you want to accelerate out of the corner.

The combination of all these changes means that automatic transmissions in the better cars are becoming nearly as efficient in performance and nearly as satisfying in use as manual transmissions for the even-slightly-above-average driver’s needs and desires. This isn't just a matter of opinion — some of Porsche's Tiptronic models are actually faster than their manual counterparts with even an above-average driver behind the wheel.

On the other side of the parking lot, the technology in those electronically controlled competition transmissions has also started trickling into everyday use. These new automatic manual gear boxes are replace the clutching and rev-matching aspects of the manual transmission with computer-controlled hydraulics while retaining the inherent efficiencies of the traditional clutch.

BMW was one of the first to introduce a sequential-manual gearbox (SMG), which used an electronically controlled clutch to replace the manual clutch and gear shift in its "M" cars. Unfortunately, though as efficient in energy transmission, it was not as fast as a manual clutch or as smooth as automatic.

On the other hand, Audi and Volkswagen took a different approach, which looks as if it is going to be a long-term solution to the problem. By using a dual-clutch system with one clutch for the even-numbered and one for the odd-numbered gears, their system allows one gear ratio to be in use with its clutch engaged while the next likely gear ratio is being selected with its clutch disengaged. When the driver is ready for the next ratio, a push or pull of the paddle causes the clutches to disengage and engage simultaneously, changing gear ratios within a fraction of a second.

This approach is now being developed by BMW for the new M3, and will be a standard offering in Porsche, Nissan, Volvo, and Mitsubishi cars in the near future. It doesn’t require much of a crystal ball to foresee that within five years, every manufacturer offering a “sport” anything – compact, sedan, or activity vehicle – will have to offer this type of dual-clutch gearbox to stay competitive.

So where does all that lead us? With my flame-retardant underwear on, I’d suggest that we’ll be seeing improved automatic transmissions, with positive engagement capabilities, in 80 percent or more of all cars sold.

I believe that for for two reasons. First, for most of us and most of our driving, we believe we have better things to do with our hands and minds than controlling the gear we’re in every second that we’re driving, so automatics will be preferred by more and more drivers. It’s just really tough to shift gears while holding that latté and simultaneously checking text messages.

Second, greater efficiency will be necessary on automatic transmission cars if manufacturers are going to meet the new average fuel efficiency standards, so anything that improves power transmission is going to be adopted.

Similarly, I believe that on high-performance automobiles where every second and ounce counts, within five years or so electronically-actuated dual-clutch manual transmissions will be more desirable than manual transmissions by any high-performance driver. Any manufacturer who doesn’t offer a dual-clutch manual as the alternative to the automatic tansmission won’t be considered to be competitive.

By that time, clutch-operated manual transmissions will be on their way out as sure as the manually-controlled spark advance was once made obsolete by springs and vacuum-advance, and then all of that was replaced by computerized ignition controls.

I’m sure when that happens, many current enthusiasts will talk nostalgically about the days when they did their own declutching and shifted gears by manually pushing them into place, just as my older friends now talk about having had to master the skill of shifting a non-synchronized crash box. By then, the skill to use a manual gear box will only matter to a handful of unreconstructed vintage car racing drivers.

And let's not forget that often-quoted adage that every technology becomes perfected just as it becomes obsolete. Mercedes certainly learned to perfect the torque-converter-based automatic, and now it's being phased out. As for DSG, it could well be the transmission technology of choice for decades to come, but if electric cars eventually catch on — as they probably will — this whole discussion might be made moot. It only takes a few minutes behind the wheel of a Tesla Roadster (with its electric motor and two-speed transmission) to be convinced where things are headed next.

Words by Gary Anderson