Slinks

Lets play a game...

You can only buy one stock; today (or whenever you plan on posting)....You've got to sell that stock in 6 months... (edit: however, said one stock is only going to take up a small amount of your portfolio rest of your money can go into whatever bank/cd/mutual fund/etc you normally would)

What do you buy? Why?

Past means nothing
2 years from now mean nothing...
Just the next 6 months...something you expect for some reason will appreciate quickly...

My pick
Vonage (VG)...They've been horrible since their ipo (an understatement), but it looks like they've leveled off around the $3 mark, and I think most of the bad news is behind them (patent litigation is mostly priced in); Its entirely possible the stock tanks further, but I think the upside/downside ratio is in their favor; and at this price, they could be a potential takeover target for any telecom/cable company that wants to immediately become the largest voip provider...

doopstr

GameStop GME (in fact I did buy today)

They are the largest retailer of video games. I expect video games to have another strong holiday season. The nice thing about GME is that you aren't betting on Xbox 360, Wii, PS3. GME sells them all.

moonraker

aeo american eagle. beaten down 17%+ lately for no huge reasons. they have no debt and after the "slow" season ends, the turn around beings, which i would assume happens in the next 6 months

amisconception

Ebay

phil2

apple..and i hate them

Fibonacci

IXC, because the energy sector is still relatively undervalued.

recognized1

The same reason why I bought GME a week ago

amisconception

Because people have to sell all their accumulated housing-bubble junk they bought in order to afford their mortgages.

elessar

I'm seriously tempted to buy Hyundai right now. I can't shake the feeling that they're positioned where Honda & Toyota were, 15 to 20 years ago, and they've got no place to go but up. That is, unless this guy decides to invade or something:

recognized1

Good call! Based on the news story that came out the stock has jumped 1.75 a share in after hours trading. Too bad I didnt follow your advice


American Eagle June same-store sales rise 8%

(4:33 PM ET) CHICAGO (MarketWatch) -- American Eagle Outfitters Inc. said Wednesday that total sales for the five weeks ended July 7 came in at $270.2 million, up 15%. Same store sales at the teenwear retailer rose 8% in the same period, ahead of the 4.4% average estimate of analysts polled by Thomson First Call. American Eaglesaid in the sales report that that "spring and summer unit sell-through rates were strong" and that it is "pleased with its inventory position heading into the back-to-school season." The company also boosted its fiscal second quarter outlook to 35 cents to 36 cents a share, up from a previous view of 34 cents to 36 cents.

hornyleprechaun

I am assuming Hyundai is based out of South Korea, but the South Korean foreign trade guy came to speak at my college a couple months ago and they were expecting BIG things in the next 5 years. He mainly came because Hyundai was building a new plant somewhere near my college in Alabama.

Renegade

Tzoo

Purple Yam

Chick fil a

recognized1

Last I check this is not a publicly traded company.

michiamo

They are private, which is why all stores are closed on sunday - something the owner believes about quality of life, etc. I must say I admire someone who stands behind their principles.

For my one stock - WFMI, growing, split in 2005, continues to grow, and is a company I truly believe in.

blackglass

Any mid-to-large scale company making medical diagnostic products. Conglomerates like GE, JJ and Siemens have been snapping them up. The GE buyout of Abbott fell through today, pushing stock in a couple others up in speculation that they might be the next to be acquired. A lot of companies have been trending upwards the whole year.

studville

And I'm not regurgitating Cramer, who said this a couple days ago (which I wish he didn't), but Conoco Phillips.

Hobby Lobby does this too, so that "People can be with their families, etc etc"

amisconception

I made my prediction on 7/10



I think I'm doing OK...

Slinks

great supermarket, wacky ceo http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/070712/whole...ents.html?.v=2
(you can search by his user name an yahoo message boards and he's got over 1300 posts...needs to do more work, less chatting with out-of-work-bums on the yahoo boards)...

michiamo

Really, not to hijack, but one of the reasons I am such a believer in WFMI is because of their strong ethics. The ceo's behavior really shocked me as I saw it as unethical - and he's the founder of the company, not just some hired gun.

F23A4

Same here with regard to that 'surprise'. However, I tend to doubt WFMI's sustainable growth as 'healthy eating/consumption' trends tend to be cyclical over extended periods of time (read: fadish). I have a hunch that they will be acquired within a year's time. (Sidenote: The wife and I LOVE WF.)

Back on topic: Although it is basically junk now but has made up some ground, I will go with SIRI. I only have 40 shares of it so my personal exposure is minimal and it represents the only "speculative" equity in my stock portfolio. That said, I believe in SatRad despite the strong popularity of iPod entertainment.

moonraker

yea the WFMI thing caught me off guard as well. but you say that healthy trends are 'cyclical'. whole foods has a very sustainable customer base because numerous people who shop there HAVE to shop there, it is one of their only options, if not their only option due to allergies or various conditions. especially people who have celiacs disease (can't eat wheat or gluten products). i read somewhere that like 1 in 7 people have celiacs now since its genetic. there are numerous other conditions/allergies/diseases and whole foods caters directly to these people, and the number of those people are growing. normal grocery stores simply don't have much stuff which caters to these people, so whole foods is their safe haven for most, if not all, their meals.


anyways, back to the picks. i picked AEO american eagle earlier in the thread. had a 7% intraday jump due to earnings reports. Also, this stock will continue to perform due to raised forecasted earnings for the next quarter. so its a good choice for the 6 month platform this little "game" is based on since they will report earnings again, but i'd say its worth checking out to hold for the next year

also, I know I already suggested one stock, but I really need to say GS goldman sachs as well. its expensive, 220 a share or so, so most people can't get a lot of leverage with it, but its charts look great for an entry point right now. it's been channeling for sometime and it's testing the support line right now. channeling: buy on support, sell on resistance. perfect entry point, then sell it once it hits resistance. repeat cycle again. but its constantly uptrending in the little channel. if i have time later, i'll draw a little pic on the chart to illustrate what i'm talking about.

F23A4

"A University of Maryland study of over 13,000 subjects demonstrated the prevalence at 1 in every 133 [.75%] Americans have celiac disease." Whole Food

KCPreki11

I'd like to see that chart then.

moonraker

haha wow, i was WAY off on that. thanks for finding it but yea, that's just one of the conditions i remember being highlighted as their sustainable consumer base and there's more. i'm not recommending buying at these levels considering the CEO stuff is up in the air, we'll have to see what the investigations come up with. and besides the fact kroger is a better play based on valuation right now if you want a grocery play... BUT, was just proving they do indeed have a sustainable consumer base of people who have conditions half of us had never really heard of/known about. or maybe it was just me.

and for the GS chart hold up i'll work that out now

moonraker

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GS&...d=p20038002052

this is a 2 year chart of GS, the red line is the 200 day moving average, as you can see, the "bottom" of the trendline is basically the 200 day ma, it is the resistance support for GS, if it hits it, and holds support like it does in the middle of the chart, it bounces back up. however, if it breaks these support lines, then its a whole new game. "trend is your friend" now, draw an imaginary line parallel to the 200 day ma (red line) ABOVE where the stock is trading, using the 'peaks' of the stock as your guideline.

Now, you have a channel where it tests the imaginary line for resistance, and it tests the 200day ma red line for support. if it breaks the support line, could be a big problem, if it breaks through the resistance line, its typically a break out where the stock will go even higher. but, as you can tell, its just slowly but surely channeling in an upward trend. i'm on a mac right now that doesn't have photoshop so i don't really have a way of editing pics and drawing lines on them to truly show what i'm talking about.

speedzer

I'm investing in Aruba Networks (ARUN). They compete with Cisco so obviously Cisco is a giant compared to Aruba. But they are growing rapidly. Microsoft switched from Cisco over to Aruba. The major casinos in Vegas are all using Aruba equipment. The government, google...etc..That should tell you something. I predict that they will be a major threat to Cisco in a few years.

LaCostaRacer

Perhaps a better test of prowess in investing is saying you can only hold one stock in 6 months at any given time, meaning you could hold one position for 3 months and another position for the 3 months afterwards or however you choose. That models real life with some of the professionals out there doing swing trades.

Now that I got a MAJOR sell signal on the stock market, I would pick a position that models shorting. For the next 2-3 months, I'll with the QID. After that, I'd go LONG possibly with some tech stock or possibly a quality financial stock or possibly the QLD.

speedzer

The damn market isn't doing so well right now but i'm stuck in this position. I can't sell because I'll lose quite a bit. I think a major cause of this is bc of the housing market. Its soo damn bad right now and I don't think we'll see any upside for another 3 to 4 months.

LaCostaRacer

Whether you sell now or hold, you have a loss-it's just whether is is official or not as far as taxes go and such. Your pick is still in a bullish chart pattern now but it is an IPO. I would have to wonder what's going to happen when all the new millionares get a chance to sell their shares in a couple of months. You could find the stock needing to test its next support level at $17.62 for another 10% loss from today's levels.

I try to abide by an 8% loss rule as much as possible in taking a paper loss and sell if my position hits 8+% because the stock usually continues to lose ground. It's never fun holding a stock that's losing but it's even worse watching it lose money week in and week out. That is downright painful. Hopefully that's not going to happen with ARUN so I wish you the best of luck.

Many of the stocks losing ground now could have a rough end of year because of tax-loss selling that kicks in around November/December. Losers now tend to be losers later in the year.

Slinks

My original post wasnt meant to start a test of investing prowess. It was meant to start an idea generating thread.

BTW, you're suggested test doesnt' really model real life much better (since in real life almost no one puts 100% of their capital into a single stock); but again this isnt meant to model real life.

Maybe a better thread would've been 'whats in your portfolio right now'; but a thread like that is only useful also if others know why/what-time-frame a stock is in a persons portfolio. eg.,one trader might be bullish on GS long term but at the same time might short it because he predicts downward price movement in the next 15 minutes. In that case, saying you are currently short GS doesnt really help unless you also explain its only for another few minutes.

Whereas giving a 6 month or longer timeframe allows someone to read your post a month down the line, say 'thats interesting', check out the details of the stock on their favorite research site, then buy the stock as the reasoning behind the pick may still be valid in a month.

LaCostaRacer

I like the MSN Strategy Lab contest where 4 or 5 experts and 1 novice are given 100K of monopoly money to play with for a 6 month or longer interval. They post entries regarding what they are buying or selling and why. The latest lab started and you can see it from this
link: http://articles.moneycentral.msn.com...abSummary.aspx


I wasn't really trying to bag on the thread because I think this will bring up some good ideas from people. But we will be in a very choppy market for a few months anyway and it could prove hard to hold anything for 6 months. All the short positions are making money and just a few longs are exceeding the market.

I'm trying to hold onto some of my positions to get a long-term-gain and it is challenging my patience now.

LaCostaRacer

^ Turns out there is a StrategyLab Open where you can play with $1M of monopoly money and have MSN's website track your performance. By playing you must enter blog entries regarding the reasoning behind your trades.

I'll probably wind up doing it and see how things go against some pretty big boys. Signups end in 2 days on Sunday the 29th if anyone is interested.

You can get information on this at: http://www.strategylabopen.com

doopstr

GameStop Reports Record Second Quarter 2007 Results
Thursday August 23, 8:30 am ET
EPS Exceeds High-End of Guidance by $0.06 per share
Comparable Store Sales Rise 29.1%
New Video Game Software Sales Grow 49%
EPS, Revenue, and Comparable Store Sales Guidance Raised for Fiscal 2007

http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/070823/20070823005102.html?.v=1

Currently $47 in premarket

jlspeed29

Im taking Caterpillar into the 3Q based on int'l building!!!!

DAROCK

Sds

hornyleprechaun

GME is doing bad now!! I bought in at 49.26, sold it at 51.26 the other day. I got out just in time though it is down bad.

doopstr

^Hope you got back in on the dip. It hit $52 today on the news of August Video Game Sales #s http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/070914/video...snap.html?.v=1

It's interesting to me that the PS2 is still outselling the PS3.

hornyleprechaun

Yeah I know.. if you are willing to watch it, that stock will go down to 49 up to 52 in a day, so if you buy enough shares you can make a couple hundred $ that day. That has to be the 3rd time (definitely the 2nd) that GME has gone up around $2.5-3 a share in the past 3 weeks.

amisconception

Lookin pretty good since I made my pick:

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=EBAY&t=3m