Luxury Sales Slump, Acura wins

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Old 05-15-2001, 03:08 PM
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Luxury Sales Slump, Acura wins

Uncertain economic conditions are already taking their toll on luxury-car sales. According to a Chicago Tribune story, luxury-model sales have fallen eleven percent, versus 6.8 percent for all vehicles combined. Analysts say that stock-market losses are the single most significant reason for the lagging luxury market, but low consumer confidence is also a factor, as is higher lease prices. Top-ranking executives' compensation packages now often include stock options, and the value of some of these packages has fallen dramatically.
__________________________________________________ ________

Probably the reason why Lotus scrapped plans of producing the 250 roadster. Hehe...

Now, I think that Acura will be affected less than other luxury makers like BMW and Mercedes. Why?

The whole point here is one of my main points concerning VALUE which is the reason I bought this car. People that were looking to spend 40K on a BMW will see our CL/TL and CLS/TLS for around $30K and see a great deal. This is a luxury car I am getting and I am paying slightly more than a "regular" car (let's say a GM or Ford or Chrysler - no flaming here you know what I mean - a little more than a $25K car).

And look how much more I am getting. All options are fricking standard unlike the QUEEN BMW who will charge me $7K to $12K for options that I consider standard as a potential luxury car consumer and still I dont brake the bank.

As I said before people, I love companies like Acura who manage to offer a great deal and PUSH the competition to reconsider.

BMW has great plans with all these new cars they are bringing out. But, if this economy continues to scale back, I see them having trouble real soon. The new 7 series, the new 5 series, the new X3 and X7 SUVs will all be up there in price. I see those auto companies suffering soon.

Of course, this economic trend could cease to exist in a matter of weeks and we start seeing strong growth again, and all of the above is suddenly bull... but it does not seem likely.

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Old 05-15-2001, 03:11 PM
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Wait, so why did Acura win?

I don't see any earnings reports posted. I don't see any fiscal year-end results.

Sounds like unsubstantiated claims to me.

Then again, I didn't bother reading most of your post, I just searched for Acura in it: used once in a sentence saying "I like Acura".

-J

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[This message has been edited by JRock (edited 05-15-2001).]
Old 05-15-2001, 03:24 PM
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JRock the above post is my guess about what might happen if this economy continues to go down. If you want me to bring Acura's income statement, I probably could (although I am not sure they would be seperate with that of Honda's but there should be some Acura numbers somewhere).

I am not saying Acura HAS won, I am saying they might win and I am stating the train of thought.

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[This message has been edited by gavriil (edited 05-15-2001).]
Old 05-15-2001, 03:31 PM
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With the economic downturn it seems hard-pressed that the new cars that BMW will soon produce (including new X3, X7, new 5 and 7 series, new 1 and 6 series, new Z3, and possible Z9)will sell well. BMW numbers for these models will not be what they had hoped for. BMW seems to want to expand their lineup to a whole slew of cars and they have done it at a time when the economy (at least US) is in a downturn. I personally do not foresee it coming up right away. With the big boom in the economy from the internet seen in 98-00, there is sure to have a corresponding drop. Everything is cyclical.. if there is a large increase there is a corresponding decrease. Acura definitely prides itself in being a 'good value' for the money, but if people do not have the money they would not buy Acuras as well.. they would wait the extra 2-3 years before purchasing a car.. just my two cents

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[This message has been edited by e1828 (edited 05-15-2001).]
Old 05-15-2001, 03:31 PM
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It's "JRock" and your title clearly states "Acura wins".


-J

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Old 05-15-2001, 03:55 PM
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There.

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Old 05-15-2001, 04:26 PM
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i work in Research for Merrill Lynch in NYC, so my 2-cents may interest u...Japanese auto manufacturers are doing so much better right now than American autos. their inventories are much better, which translates into less initiatives (lower financing rates do not qualify as initiatives b/c no matter what, the company gets the face amount plus extra). ford, dodge, chrysler, gm, etc. are giving initiatives like $1,000 off, $500 off sticker price. right there, dealers lose their commission. commissions made by the dealer are very small, smaller than u guys may think/believe. it's the manufacturer who makes out with the bulk of the profit; the dealer gets a very small piece. it's a downward spiral; the manufacturer is losing more and more money between having the cars/trucks sit on a lot and constant reduction in sticker price. then the dealership is forced to close b/c it can't make payments on their property. then u got geographic blackout areas b/c none of your cars are being driven in the areas where the dealerships used to be, which is a REAL negative since part of auto's marketing campaign is for the cars themselves being driven around to spark curiosity. Japan is in a situation where they have the ability to flood cars into the system, super-saturating the market. the manufacturers probably borrow massive amounts of money from their banks and default on those loans, not having to pay a dime b/c of the writeoffs so that they can buy the same property the American auto dealerships lost and leveraging themselves. here are hard-core #'s...in April, GM sales fell 16%, Ford sales fell 14.5%, and Chrysler fell 18%. cadillac and lincoln had the biggest decline year-to-date out of all luxury cars, down 27% and 25%. as far as hard-core insentive #'s go in April, Honda spends the least amount on average incentive spending per unit, only $513, compared with the highest amount, Mazda, of $2398. the average was $1825. chrysler was $2386, GM was$2126, and Ford was $2122. as far as the future goes, Japanese car makers will prob feel the slowdown a bit more. inventories will prob go up a little also. but Acura certainly has the wildcard in this hand


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Old 05-15-2001, 04:57 PM
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Scooter


Good info man, keep em coming.

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Old 05-15-2001, 05:05 PM
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They probably won because they sell a shitload of Integras...those things are 8 years old...it takes about 3 years for the average car to recoup R&D and production costs..after that, it's all gravy...Acura has had that damn Integra for about 8 years!!! That's 5 years of almost pure profit on their profit margins. So, figure an average profit margin of say 5%...on an average price of 15K for an Integra...that's $750 per Integra...and we all know how many integras are out there.
<font face="Verdana, Arial" size="2">Originally posted by JRock:
Wait, so why did Acura win?

I don't see any earnings reports posted. I don't see any fiscal year-end results.

Sounds like unsubstantiated claims to me.

Then again, I didn't bother reading most of your post, I just searched for Acura in it: used once in a sentence saying "I like Acura".

-J

</font>


------------------
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Old 05-15-2001, 05:11 PM
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Scooter I really did not want to get into numbers because I would probably gotten flamed that I post useless info, or where did I get the info, or I am a bookworm, etc.

But since there at least ONE person here that shows signs of understanding that automobiles are not just that, cars that is, that there is a business behind the CL and the M3 and all cars, I feel better now.

And to expand on your post: I think Japanese auto companies are not suffering as much as US ones mainly to 2 reasons. Strong US dollar and very weak Yen, and the fact that at this point borrowing money in Japan is almost free. Interest rates are between 1% and 2%. What do you think?

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Old 05-15-2001, 05:45 PM
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man...i'm being barraged with useless information!!!

i think japanese automakers may be selling cars well in the u.s...but about the usd and the yen, that's the problem...the yen is slowly getting stronger and the usd is questionable about where it's going right now. so we'll see how they and the economies do
Old 05-15-2001, 05:53 PM
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of course i agree, hence what i said before..."the manufacturers probably borrow massive amounts of money from their banks and default on those loans, not having to pay a dime..." the rate is like next to nothing, so the banks will just write it off. is it ethical? no, but we're not talking about morals and ideals here. we're talking about a business that has kept auto companies in business for years while the Japanese economy has steadily become worse and worse, ergo the yen has been weakening vs. the dollar. sooner or later, something has to give. actually, if the US economy was as good as it was last March, the whole Japan situation would b so much worse, i cannot even fathom how bad it would've been. the global economy would've come close to a screaching halt. bad things, man, bad things.


------------------
Copyright 2001 ScooterKin Enterprises:

'01 CL Type-S: Red on Black

- PIAA 19224 road lamps
- mudguards
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- fenderwell trim
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- wheel locks
- the OLD cup holder
- ...last, but not least, the Xephyr CAI
Old 05-15-2001, 06:00 PM
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<font face="Verdana, Arial" size="2">Originally posted by Scooter:
i work in Research for Merrill Lynch in NYC, so my 2-cents may interest u...

</font>
Scooter, 2pm in the afternoon and you have time to post that? Hmmm....must be a late luch

I'm at UBSPaineWebber Midtown as an Advisor but not today! I have off.



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Old 05-16-2001, 08:07 AM
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This is a little off topic, but I don't like the idea of all the automobile manufacturers' all of the sudden coming out with all kinds of different vehicles. I get Motor Trend, and in the beginiing of the mag, it has concept cars and stuff. I have seen so many BMW concept cars, and to me, I don't see how they could be so different from each other. Just stuff like that bugs me. Kind of like fads. Isn't there going to be a point when people aren't going to want to buy all of these cars? Just my $.02

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Old 05-16-2001, 11:58 AM
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To get back to the original post, I don't agree. I truly don't believe that auto manufacturers such as BMW and Mercedes will be suffering anytime soon. If you look at the people who buy the 5 or 7 series BMW's or the E and S class Mercedes, these people are not being hurt by the market or the economy in any way. They are smart enough to know not to put every dime they have into the stock market.

Just remember, 90% of the United States wealth is possessed by only 10% of the population, and these are the people who are buying the big dollar cars.
Old 05-16-2001, 12:17 PM
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<font face="Verdana, Arial" size="2">Originally posted by Scooter:
i work in Research for Merrill Lynch in NYC, so my 2-cents may interest u...Japanese auto manufacturers are doing so much better right now than American autos. their inventories are much better, which translates into less initiatives (lower financing rates do not qualify as initiatives b/c no matter what, the company gets the face amount plus extra). ford, dodge, chrysler, gm, etc. are giving initiatives like $1,000 off, $500 off sticker price. right there, dealers lose their commission. commissions made by the dealer are very small, smaller than u guys may think/believe. it's the manufacturer who makes out with the bulk of the profit; the dealer gets a very small piece. it's a downward spiral; the manufacturer is losing more and more money between having the cars/trucks sit on a lot and constant reduction in sticker price. then the dealership is forced to close b/c it can't make payments on their property. then u got geographic blackout areas b/c none of your cars are being driven in the areas where the dealerships used to be, which is a REAL negative since part of auto's marketing campaign is for the cars themselves being driven around to spark curiosity. Japan is in a situation where they have the ability to flood cars into the system, super-saturating the market. the manufacturers probably borrow massive amounts of money from their banks and default on those loans, not having to pay a dime b/c of the writeoffs so that they can buy the same property the American auto dealerships lost and leveraging themselves. here are hard-core #'s...in April, GM sales fell 16%, Ford sales fell 14.5%, and Chrysler fell 18%. cadillac and lincoln had the biggest decline year-to-date out of all luxury cars, down 27% and 25%. as far as hard-core insentive #'s go in April, Honda spends the least amount on average incentive spending per unit, only $513, compared with the highest amount, Mazda, of $2398. the average was $1825. chrysler was $2386, GM was$2126, and Ford was $2122. as far as the future goes, Japanese car makers will prob feel the slowdown a bit more. inventories will prob go up a little also. but Acura certainly has the wildcard in this hand


</font>
Now that's great information!


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Old 05-16-2001, 12:25 PM
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Scooter, nice post!

Patrick
Old 05-16-2001, 12:40 PM
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<font face="Verdana, Arial" size="2">Originally posted by Matt_S:
To get back to the original post, I don't agree. I truly don't believe that auto manufacturers such as BMW and Mercedes will be suffering anytime soon. If you look at the people who buy the 5 or 7 series BMW's or the E and S class Mercedes, these people are not being hurt by the market or the economy in any way. They are smart enough to know not to put every dime they have into the stock market.

Just remember, 90% of the United States wealth is possessed by only 10% of the population, and these are the people who are buying the big dollar cars.
</font>

Actually it is more like 97% of the wealth is possessed by 3% of the people it might be 95%-4% now.

But the fundamental mistake here is that, this economy is not in trouble right now because the market is down, because NASAQ is off 60%. There are more important problems like energy and gas prices, consumer confidence, corporate profits that are dismantled literaly, and that makes companies layoff people which hurts consumer confidence even more.

Bottom line, BMW, Jaguar, Merc, Lexus, etc cannot do well by just he millionaires. THEY HAVE to broaden their target market and that is what they have been trying to do. A good example is Jaguar coming out with the Xtype. This will be their bread and butter. BMW's bread and butter is the 3 series. If they were to cut 3 series sales by half the company would be going bankrupt in a matter of months.

And that is why Acura is following the pricing strategy they are. $30K for a great coupe/GT whith all options standard! That dounds great to the masses who can pay 23K-25K for a car, now they might jump to a $30K car because they are get SO MUCH MORE.


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Old 05-16-2001, 02:25 PM
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ok,

1. there is NO company on this planet that will NOT be affected by the slowing economy. period. and BMW, Mercedes, Jaguar (division of Ford), etc. have been affected. unfortunately, i cannot disclose by how much, but u just gotta trust me on this one. everyone is feeling it, no matter what industry your company is in, no matter where on Earth your company resides in, and no matter how big or small your company is, there's no escaping the inevitible

2. i believe people in the financial world today are too young and too inexperienced in this market to accurately predict/deal with current market conditions. remember, the last time we had a similar situation was close to 15 years ago. most employees haven't been around that long. my point is this economy could've been 10 times better if only we had more experienced people running the show.

3. car companies have been showing concept cars for decades, and they will continue to do so.

------------------
Copyright 2001 ScooterKin Enterprises:

'01 CL Type-S: Red on Black

- PIAA 19224 road lamps
- mudguards
- moonroof visor
- fenderwell trim
- spoiler
- wheel locks
- the OLD cup holder
- ...last, but not least, the Xephyr CAI
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