Three stocks...
10-04-2009, 09:32 PM
#1
Go B's Go
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Three stocks...
These are the three that I've really been keeping my eye on...
A123 (aone) I should have bought it at 19.50 when it came out last week, it is now at 25.77/share. I thought the share would go down after all the excitement of the IPO but it hasn't, its done just the opposite. Trying to think whether I should buy it now at 25, wait for it to go down or just forget it all together.
Electronic Arts (erts) Currently at 18.32/share its been steadily dropping the last few weeks. Has a 52 week high of 40+, looks to me like its a buy situation as soon as there is a day where it gains some percent back.
Microsoft (msft) It was down a bit lower last week and has climbed a few percent to 24.96 currently...with the release of Windows Seven I see the stock possibly going up to 30/share. This would be a pretty good time to buy a proven commodity.
What do you guys think? Any input is appreciated. Maybe we can start a little thread with stocks that you are keeping an eye on
A123 (aone) I should have bought it at 19.50 when it came out last week, it is now at 25.77/share. I thought the share would go down after all the excitement of the IPO but it hasn't, its done just the opposite. Trying to think whether I should buy it now at 25, wait for it to go down or just forget it all together.
Electronic Arts (erts) Currently at 18.32/share its been steadily dropping the last few weeks. Has a 52 week high of 40+, looks to me like its a buy situation as soon as there is a day where it gains some percent back.
Microsoft (msft) It was down a bit lower last week and has climbed a few percent to 24.96 currently...with the release of Windows Seven I see the stock possibly going up to 30/share. This would be a pretty good time to buy a proven commodity.
What do you guys think? Any input is appreciated. Maybe we can start a little thread with stocks that you are keeping an eye on
10-04-2009, 10:53 PM
#2
Racer
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MSFT I would say is a nobrainer going long. the others may be nice short plays, but I don't know much of their industries to comment initially
MPEL : Melco Crown Entertainment : It's gaining quite a bit of market share in Macau right now over MGM, Wynn, Sands, etc. There are also talks over some relaxation of travel restrictions into Macau, which would open up more visitors, hence revenue.
F: Ford: Going long on this. With it's repetitive and certain announcements of turning a profit in 2011 and their growing consumer base in China and the different technologies they're investing in...
CVM: Cel-Sci Tech : currently got the greenlight on clinical trial from FDA, then they'll have to register. it's for an H1N1 vaccine. Imagine any government involvement with their R&D. They're also in development with other cancer research.
WFC: Wells Fargo : I've played this short, but definitely a nice long as well. But banks are banks right now. I've seen resistance b/t 23 & 28.
MPEL : Melco Crown Entertainment : It's gaining quite a bit of market share in Macau right now over MGM, Wynn, Sands, etc. There are also talks over some relaxation of travel restrictions into Macau, which would open up more visitors, hence revenue.
F: Ford: Going long on this. With it's repetitive and certain announcements of turning a profit in 2011 and their growing consumer base in China and the different technologies they're investing in...
CVM: Cel-Sci Tech : currently got the greenlight on clinical trial from FDA, then they'll have to register. it's for an H1N1 vaccine. Imagine any government involvement with their R&D. They're also in development with other cancer research.
WFC: Wells Fargo : I've played this short, but definitely a nice long as well. But banks are banks right now. I've seen resistance b/t 23 & 28.
10-04-2009, 11:40 PM
#3
MSFT I would say is a nobrainer going long. the others may be nice short plays, but I don't know much of their industries to comment initially
MPEL : Melco Crown Entertainment : It's gaining quite a bit of market share in Macau right now over MGM, Wynn, Sands, etc. There are also talks over some relaxation of travel restrictions into Macau, which would open up more visitors, hence revenue.
F: Ford: Going long on this. With it's repetitive and certain announcements of turning a profit in 2011 and their growing consumer base in China and the different technologies they're investing in...
CVM: Cel-Sci Tech : currently got the greenlight on clinical trial from FDA, then they'll have to register. it's for an H1N1 vaccine. Imagine any government involvement with their R&D. They're also in development with other cancer research.
WFC: Wells Fargo : I've played this short, but definitely a nice long as well. But banks are banks right now. I've seen resistance b/t 23 & 28.
MPEL : Melco Crown Entertainment : It's gaining quite a bit of market share in Macau right now over MGM, Wynn, Sands, etc. There are also talks over some relaxation of travel restrictions into Macau, which would open up more visitors, hence revenue.
F: Ford: Going long on this. With it's repetitive and certain announcements of turning a profit in 2011 and their growing consumer base in China and the different technologies they're investing in...
CVM: Cel-Sci Tech : currently got the greenlight on clinical trial from FDA, then they'll have to register. it's for an H1N1 vaccine. Imagine any government involvement with their R&D. They're also in development with other cancer research.
WFC: Wells Fargo : I've played this short, but definitely a nice long as well. But banks are banks right now. I've seen resistance b/t 23 & 28.
Made a ton on this buying in at low .60's.
I would add:
BIEL
AMD
INTC
For some decent picks, both long and short.
10-05-2009, 08:44 AM
#4
Team Owner
Been holding MSFT since around $20. Looking to get out around the release of Windows 7. I'd be very happy with $30 but not sure if that's in the cards.
F in the short term isn't going anywhere. Cash for clunkers got a lot of people to move up there car purchase so I think sales disappointments will be coming.
VMW has been showing a lot of strength lately.
F in the short term isn't going anywhere. Cash for clunkers got a lot of people to move up there car purchase so I think sales disappointments will be coming.
VMW has been showing a lot of strength lately.
Last edited by doopstr; 10-05-2009 at 08:47 AM.
10-05-2009, 10:14 PM
#5
Drifting
MSFT is just above support @ 24.50, but it is richly valued even at this reduced level. The Windows upgrade premise is an old idea now- you would have made money in June but may not now.
Look at Price/Sales or PEG and you'll see what I'm saying. Compare MSFT's numbers to WDC, and you'll see one reason why WDC blew away MSFT in performance this last 6 months. If you're betting on a hardware upgrade cycle because of Windows 7, I would take WDC over Microsoft any day until WDC's PEG gets above 1.1.
My major rules for buying stocks are:
1. must make money- no negative ROEs or ROAs (aone would fail this rule, but MSFT looks good here)
2. PEG < 1.0 and better < .8 (MSFT is the notable failing this rule)
3. good insider ownership - something higher than 5% is nice (MSFT is actually good in this category)
4. technical chart pattern having a price above major Moving averages
5. knowing what market you're in- is this really a bull market or just a bullish rally in a secular bear market? Everyone will have their own opinion on this one. Bear markets will make even good stocks go down that meet the above criteria.
Good luck on those longs though, I hope they work out. I got a sell signal on the general market on Friday so I won't be buying anything until the signal changes. Remember markets don't go up 40+% in 6 months without some form on consolidation- I would not be surprised seeing a 5-10% dip from these current levels.
Look at Price/Sales or PEG and you'll see what I'm saying. Compare MSFT's numbers to WDC, and you'll see one reason why WDC blew away MSFT in performance this last 6 months. If you're betting on a hardware upgrade cycle because of Windows 7, I would take WDC over Microsoft any day until WDC's PEG gets above 1.1.
My major rules for buying stocks are:
1. must make money- no negative ROEs or ROAs (aone would fail this rule, but MSFT looks good here)
2. PEG < 1.0 and better < .8 (MSFT is the notable failing this rule)
3. good insider ownership - something higher than 5% is nice (MSFT is actually good in this category)
4. technical chart pattern having a price above major Moving averages
5. knowing what market you're in- is this really a bull market or just a bullish rally in a secular bear market? Everyone will have their own opinion on this one. Bear markets will make even good stocks go down that meet the above criteria.
Good luck on those longs though, I hope they work out. I got a sell signal on the general market on Friday so I won't be buying anything until the signal changes. Remember markets don't go up 40+% in 6 months without some form on consolidation- I would not be surprised seeing a 5-10% dip from these current levels.
10-23-2009, 01:45 PM
#6
Team Owner
Sold my msft today. $30 may still be in the cards but I'll take what I got.
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10-25-2009, 02:18 AM
#8
Racer
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ouch i won't even ask your basis. why not consider wash sale. sell it and just buyback in 31 days if u believe will continue to go down, writeoff the short/long losses on taxes. at least you don't own CIT Group (CIT) like me. it's gonna take a LONNGGGG time.
10-26-2009, 01:53 PM
#9
Senior Moderator
I wish i would have bought a bunch of Oshkosh corp stock last year when it was 4 bucks a share.
10-27-2009, 10:30 PM
#10
That was uncalled for...
10-28-2009, 09:22 AM
#12
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I'm trading options, not the stock, NOV 65 Calls.
11-04-2009, 05:21 PM
#13
goldeneye style
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AONE don't get me wrong it's a great premise... but the company doesn't make any money practically. It's hope rather than results. I'm iffy on this one for now. Unfortunately I think it will trade according to energy... levered to the price of oil.
For another recent IPO worth checking out, look into VRSK.
Not sure if you are talking about trading or investing in this specific thread but ATVI > ERTS. Their Blizzard section has multiple proven franchise games up and coming with sequels and is just in better financial condition overall. Tough to be in a discretionary retail play though in this environment regardless.
If anyone is into distressed plays, try GGWPQ (anything under $4 is decent, but closer to $3 ideal). Hedge it out with a short of IYR, or a short of a REIT like SLG... heck even a regional bank with lots of CRE exposure like ZION. Understand that this play has a much higher risk profile and the hedge is absolutely necessary.
And while it's not advisable to buy them now after tons of new 52 week highs, the payment processing duopoly of V and MA is solid; lots of hedge funds in that play
Keep an eye on PCS and LEAP tomorrow when they report earnings, they've been massively beaten down with shorts and many used the goldman sachs downgrade to cover... more positive catalyst risk than negative right now.
Tons of good ideas out there in terms of investments, but one major problem: price. things are overextended and just 'meh' for the most part in terms of current valuation; no real screaming buys. would need a more substantial pullback
For another recent IPO worth checking out, look into VRSK.
Not sure if you are talking about trading or investing in this specific thread but ATVI > ERTS. Their Blizzard section has multiple proven franchise games up and coming with sequels and is just in better financial condition overall. Tough to be in a discretionary retail play though in this environment regardless.
If anyone is into distressed plays, try GGWPQ (anything under $4 is decent, but closer to $3 ideal). Hedge it out with a short of IYR, or a short of a REIT like SLG... heck even a regional bank with lots of CRE exposure like ZION. Understand that this play has a much higher risk profile and the hedge is absolutely necessary.
And while it's not advisable to buy them now after tons of new 52 week highs, the payment processing duopoly of V and MA is solid; lots of hedge funds in that play
Keep an eye on PCS and LEAP tomorrow when they report earnings, they've been massively beaten down with shorts and many used the goldman sachs downgrade to cover... more positive catalyst risk than negative right now.
Tons of good ideas out there in terms of investments, but one major problem: price. things are overextended and just 'meh' for the most part in terms of current valuation; no real screaming buys. would need a more substantial pullback
12-04-2009, 01:13 PM
#14
goldeneye style
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If anyone is into distressed plays, try GGWPQ (anything under $4 is decent, but closer to $3 ideal). Hedge it out with a short of IYR, or a short of a REIT like SLG... heck even a regional bank with lots of CRE exposure like ZION. Understand that this play has a much higher risk profile and the hedge is absolutely necessary.
01-14-2010, 08:48 AM
#22
Team Owner
The latest run in F and AA really amazed me, can they hold it?
What do you guys think of Gamestop? They are trading near 52 week low.
What do you guys think of Gamestop? They are trading near 52 week low.
01-15-2010, 10:15 AM
#28
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it's one of those i would wait til it drops, buy it and rebounds back to 60+. I was watching to see where it was going. I don't know if or when the market will allow it to go back over $100+
01-15-2010, 01:20 PM
#30
That was uncalled for...
F's done well for me so far, but how much higher could it go? I can only see it going into the low 20's but who knows how long that'll take...
01-20-2010, 10:00 PM
#33
Racer
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brk.b , berkshire hathaway b shares with a 50 split should probably open up around $70-75 a share in the morning. obvious long play, but also a possible short play assuming smalltime investors rush in the first few days. short with your taxable account, long with your IRA.
01-21-2010, 08:07 AM
#34
Team Owner
^wow 50-1.
03-01-2010, 06:02 PM
#36
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Was looking at Berkshire B as well...might still be a good buy in the low 80s.
Bought some Carnival Cruise Lines (CCL) today even though I am late to the game I still think in the long term it is going to go well above 50 dollars. Only time will tell I guess.
Bought some Carnival Cruise Lines (CCL) today even though I am late to the game I still think in the long term it is going to go well above 50 dollars. Only time will tell I guess.
03-04-2010, 05:03 PM
#37
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Has anybody looked at Blockbuster (BBI), I realize that they had a net loss of about 558 million last year. They have teamed with TIVO in bringing the TIVO Premiere which supports direct movie rental from Blockbuster a la Netflix streaming.
Netflix shares are being traded in the high 60s and they are the model company for movie rental. I realize Blockbuster shares will never go up to anywhere near those numbers but with a few good ventures couldn't they go into the teens?
BBI currently at 40 cents/share
Netflix shares are being traded in the high 60s and they are the model company for movie rental. I realize Blockbuster shares will never go up to anywhere near those numbers but with a few good ventures couldn't they go into the teens?
BBI currently at 40 cents/share
03-04-2010, 05:59 PM
#38
Team Owner
Chap 11 in BBI future, IMO. BTW the older Tivos have supported Blockbuster streaming for awhile. They can also stream from Netflix and Amazon.