Money & Investing Learn how to get rich on the housing bubble and the bull market…

Shake Shack IPO

Old 01-28-2015, 02:36 PM
  #1  
Moderator
Thread Starter
 
Mizouse's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2004
Location: Not Las Vegas (SF Bay Area)
Age: 39
Posts: 63,169
Received 2,773 Likes on 1,976 Posts
Shake Shack IPO

Thoughts on this one?

I totally forgot to try this place last weekend in Vegas



Supposed to start trading this Friday.
Old 01-28-2015, 04:42 PM
  #2  
Registered but harmless
 
Will Y.'s Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2005
Location: Los Angeles, CA
Age: 59
Posts: 14,841
Received 1,102 Likes on 763 Posts

You gotta be kidding.
IPO for a small chain of burger joints valued at a multiple of McDonald's or Chipotle on a per restaurant basis?

Old 01-28-2015, 06:51 PM
  #3  
Go Giants
 
Whiskers's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2004
Location: PA
Age: 52
Posts: 69,899
Received 1,231 Likes on 821 Posts
My son loves that place...
Old 01-29-2015, 05:15 AM
  #4  
Suzuka Master
 
YeuEmMaiMai's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2006
Posts: 9,863
Received 435 Likes on 342 Posts
Food cheapening begins in 3...2....1....
Old 01-29-2015, 07:33 AM
  #5  
Team Owner
 
doopstr's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2001
Location: Jersey
Age: 52
Posts: 25,324
Received 2,043 Likes on 1,132 Posts
Shake it off, mmm-mmm.
Old 01-29-2015, 09:43 PM
  #6  
_
 
AZuser's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2006
Posts: 18,692
Received 3,097 Likes on 1,867 Posts
Priced at $21, above $17-$19 price which was raised from $14-$16 range
Old 01-30-2015, 08:53 AM
  #7  
_
 
AZuser's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2006
Posts: 18,692
Received 3,097 Likes on 1,867 Posts
Open price went from $29 to $41.00 now. F that.
Old 01-30-2015, 09:18 AM
  #8  
Team Owner
 
doopstr's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2001
Location: Jersey
Age: 52
Posts: 25,324
Received 2,043 Likes on 1,132 Posts
Old 01-30-2015, 09:18 AM
  #9  
350
My first ricer
iTrader: (4)
 
350's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2012
Location: Willow Grove, PA
Posts: 1,521
Received 256 Likes on 211 Posts
Still debating if I feel like driving 30 minutes away to try their burger. I should probably do it before the shareholders look for cost savings.
Old 01-30-2015, 09:19 AM
  #10  
_
 
AZuser's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2006
Posts: 18,692
Received 3,097 Likes on 1,867 Posts
Originally Posted by AZuser
Open price went from $29 to $41.00 now. F that.
Opened at $47. Now at $49.33 - Up $28.33 (134.89%)
Old 01-30-2015, 09:39 AM
  #11  
Moderator
Thread Starter
 
Mizouse's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2004
Location: Not Las Vegas (SF Bay Area)
Age: 39
Posts: 63,169
Received 2,773 Likes on 1,976 Posts





Old 01-30-2015, 09:51 AM
  #12  
Team Owner
 
doopstr's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2001
Location: Jersey
Age: 52
Posts: 25,324
Received 2,043 Likes on 1,132 Posts
I want to be in the 1%.
The following users liked this post:
Mizouse (01-30-2015)
Old 01-30-2015, 09:54 AM
  #13  
Moderator
Thread Starter
 
Mizouse's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2004
Location: Not Las Vegas (SF Bay Area)
Age: 39
Posts: 63,169
Received 2,773 Likes on 1,976 Posts
I'd like to be in the 10%
Old 02-05-2015, 01:11 AM
  #14  
_
 
AZuser's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2006
Posts: 18,692
Received 3,097 Likes on 1,867 Posts
Fell below $47 opening price

$41.32 - Down $3.66 (8.14%)

New low of $40.75. Will likely continue to fall like the rest of the over hyped restaurants/chains
Old 03-11-2015, 04:35 PM
  #15  
Moderator
Thread Starter
 
Mizouse's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2004
Location: Not Las Vegas (SF Bay Area)
Age: 39
Posts: 63,169
Received 2,773 Likes on 1,976 Posts
Old 03-11-2015, 04:47 PM
  #16  
_
 
AZuser's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2006
Posts: 18,692
Received 3,097 Likes on 1,867 Posts
$46.90 - Up $1.12 (2.45%) 4:03PM EDT

After Hours: $44.00 - Down $2.90 (6.18%) 5:29PM EDT

Reports loss of 5 cents per share (loss of $1.4 million) and revenue of $34.8 million (up 51.5% from $23 million a year ago). Estimates were for loss of 2 cents per share and revenue of $33.1 million.

7.2% comps vs 4% estimate.

Company trades at 938 times forward earnings! Chipotle, which has real profits, higher growth, and better same store comps, trades at 38 times forward earnings.
Old 03-11-2015, 05:55 PM
  #17  
Moderator
Thread Starter
 
Mizouse's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2004
Location: Not Las Vegas (SF Bay Area)
Age: 39
Posts: 63,169
Received 2,773 Likes on 1,976 Posts
Well I still want to try eating at this place next time I'm in vegas
Old 03-12-2015, 12:10 PM
  #18  
_
 
AZuser's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2006
Posts: 18,692
Received 3,097 Likes on 1,867 Posts


$49.35 - Up $2.45 (5.22%)
Old 03-12-2015, 12:18 PM
  #19  
F-C
Senior Moderator
 
F-C's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2004
Location: NYC
Posts: 16,602
Received 1,064 Likes on 764 Posts
Love their burgers! The stock not so much.
Old 03-12-2015, 12:51 PM
  #20  
_
 
AZuser's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2006
Posts: 18,692
Received 3,097 Likes on 1,867 Posts
Originally Posted by F-C
Love their burgers! The stock not so much.
Never had. But will definitely check them out if near one. Hope it's not all hype like Five Guys Burger or Smash Burger
Old 03-12-2015, 01:00 PM
  #21  
F-C
Senior Moderator
 
F-C's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2004
Location: NYC
Posts: 16,602
Received 1,064 Likes on 764 Posts
Originally Posted by AZuser
Never had. But will definitely check them out if near one. Hope it's not all hype like Five Guys Burger or Smash Burger
Haha, I like 5G and Smash Burger, but Shake Shack is much better. It's my favorite burger "chain." And I've been hooked on it before it was a chain.
Old 05-13-2015, 05:27 PM
  #22  
_
 
AZuser's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2006
Posts: 18,692
Received 3,097 Likes on 1,867 Posts


After Hours : $75.10 - Up $6.74 (9.86%)

Q1 numbers:

- GAAP loss of $12.7 million ($1.06 a share) due to costs from IPO vs profit of $1.1 million (4 cents a share) a year ago

- non-GAAP profit of 4 cents a share (up from 2 cents a year ago) vs loss of 3 cents a share estimate -- beat
- revenue up 56.2% year over year to $37.8 million vs $33.96 million estimate -- beat
- same store sales up 11.7% vs 5% estimate -- beat

- Raised FY2015 revenue guidance to between $161 million and $165 million from between $159 million and $163 million. Analysts expect $164.77 million.
Old 05-13-2015, 06:27 PM
  #23  
Moderator
Thread Starter
 
Mizouse's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2004
Location: Not Las Vegas (SF Bay Area)
Age: 39
Posts: 63,169
Received 2,773 Likes on 1,976 Posts
Was looking to pick up shake Shack but no trading money available
Old 05-14-2015, 08:46 AM
  #24  
Senior Moderator
 
thoiboi's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2010
Location: SoCal, CA
Posts: 46,857
Received 8,568 Likes on 6,621 Posts
I mean.. their burgers are alright.. I've made an effort to eat it at least once each time I'm in NYC but In n Out beats the hell out of it and then some. definitely overpriced /: (just like their burgers themselves)
Old 05-14-2015, 08:55 AM
  #25  
Racer
iTrader: (1)
 
mvp2765's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2013
Location: Chicago
Posts: 489
Received 95 Likes on 78 Posts
They just opened one in Chicago and i tried it for the first time. Not impressed. The burgers were like sliders or mini burgers. I spent almost $30 between 2 people and was still hungry after we finished everything.
Old 05-14-2015, 10:03 AM
  #26  
Moderator
Thread Starter
 
Mizouse's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2004
Location: Not Las Vegas (SF Bay Area)
Age: 39
Posts: 63,169
Received 2,773 Likes on 1,976 Posts
I'm gonna try one out in Vegas when I'm there in 3 weeks
Old 05-21-2015, 01:08 PM
  #27  
Team Owner
 
Doom878's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2002
Location: Miami, FL
Age: 45
Posts: 27,882
Received 1,287 Likes on 952 Posts
There are some here in key locations. They seem to do very well but the food is overrated IMO.
Old 05-21-2015, 06:29 PM
  #28  
_
 
AZuser's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2006
Posts: 18,692
Received 3,097 Likes on 1,867 Posts
Originally Posted by Mizouse
Was looking to pick up shake Shack but no trading money available
New high of $90.52

After Hours : $93.50 - Up $3.63 (4.04%)


No shares to short. No options to trade.

FY 2015 EPS estimate = $0.12
Today's closing price = $89.87

PE = $89.87 ÷ $0.12 = 749.92
Old 05-21-2015, 06:31 PM
  #29  
Moderator
Thread Starter
 
Mizouse's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2004
Location: Not Las Vegas (SF Bay Area)
Age: 39
Posts: 63,169
Received 2,773 Likes on 1,976 Posts
Yea i saw that... Why? Because the whole chicken shack rumor?
Old 05-21-2015, 08:48 PM
  #30  
Team Owner
 
doopstr's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2001
Location: Jersey
Age: 52
Posts: 25,324
Received 2,043 Likes on 1,132 Posts
Burger bubble?
Old 05-21-2015, 09:34 PM
  #31  
Team Owner
 
doopstr's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2001
Location: Jersey
Age: 52
Posts: 25,324
Received 2,043 Likes on 1,132 Posts
Chicken Shack sounds like it should be a whore house in Vegas.
The following users liked this post:
Mizouse (05-22-2015)
Old 05-21-2015, 09:48 PM
  #32  
_
 
AZuser's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2006
Posts: 18,692
Received 3,097 Likes on 1,867 Posts
They won't be able to use the Chicken Shack name since there's already a place called The Chicken Shack in Hermosa Beach. I guess SHAK could always buy them out to get the name.

Damn it. Now I'm craving some Chicken Shack. Maybe tomorrow.

The following users liked this post:
Mizouse (05-22-2015)
Old 05-29-2015, 06:15 PM
  #33  
Moderator
Thread Starter
 
Mizouse's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2004
Location: Not Las Vegas (SF Bay Area)
Age: 39
Posts: 63,169
Received 2,773 Likes on 1,976 Posts
Old 08-10-2015, 05:42 PM
  #34  
_
 
AZuser's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2006
Posts: 18,692
Received 3,097 Likes on 1,867 Posts


After Hours : $76.01 - Up $5.37 (7.60%)

Q2 numbers (based on 16 Shacks vs 10 Shacks a year ago):

- GAAP income of 8 cents a share or $1.1 million
- non-GAAP EPS of 9 cents a share (up 200% from 3 cents a year ago) vs 3 cents a share estimate -- beat
- non-GAAP profit of $3.4 million (up from $1.1 million a year ago)
- revenue of $48.5 million (up 74.7% from $27.7 million a year ago) vs $42.8 million estimate -- beat
- same store sales up 12.9% (from 4.5% growth a year ago) vs 8.5% estimate -- beat

- Raising FY2015 revenue guidance again to between $171 million and $174 million from prior range of between $161 million and $165 million which was raised from between $159 million and $163 million.

- Increasing same-Shack sales growth to mid- to high-single digits from low- to mid-single digits


Shake Shack also announced a secondary offering of 4 million shares by a selling shareholder.
Old 08-10-2015, 06:23 PM
  #35  
Moderator
Thread Starter
 
Mizouse's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2004
Location: Not Las Vegas (SF Bay Area)
Age: 39
Posts: 63,169
Received 2,773 Likes on 1,976 Posts
Old 08-14-2015, 12:21 AM
  #36  
_
 
AZuser's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2006
Posts: 18,692
Received 3,097 Likes on 1,867 Posts
Originally Posted by Mizouse
$54.49 - Down $10.30 (15.90%)

Options finally start trading in the morning. Insiders cashing out. More downside?


https://finance.yahoo.com/news/shake...132531398.html

Shake Shack getting destroyed, stock down 14%

On Wednesday, after the market close, the burger chain priced its 4-million-share stock offering at $60 per share, $5 below where the stock closed on Wednesday.

And in afternoon trade on Thursday the stock was down nearly 14%, to around $56 per share, $4 below where the company priced its offering.

Along with its earnings release on Monday, Shake Shack said it would sell 4 million shares but not receive any of the proceeds, presumably allowing company insiders to sell shares they were previously unable to because of restrictions around the company's public debut.

Stocks typically fall after more shares are offered into the market because earnings per share decline as the denominator in this calculation — profit divided by shares outstanding — gets larger.[/B]

Since hitting a closing high of more than $92 per share in May, shares of Shake Shack are down about 30%.

And in just the three days since Shake Shack's earnings report, the stock is down more than 20%.

Last edited by AZuser; 08-14-2015 at 12:29 AM.
Old 10-08-2015, 11:32 AM
  #37  
_
 
AZuser's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2006
Posts: 18,692
Received 3,097 Likes on 1,867 Posts
Back below IPO opening price of $47

$45.23 - Down $3.25 (-6.71%)


Shake Shack?s pre-IPO investors cashing out - MarketWatch

Shake Shack’s pre-IPO investors cashing out

Oct 8, 2015 11:31 a.m. ET

Founder Danny Meyer, PE investor Leonard Green among those converting, selling shares

Shake Shack Inc. on Thursday announced plans to convert Class B shares into Class A shares, enabling some early investors like Leonard Green, its top holder, to exit about nine months after the burger chain’s public debut.

In a regulatory filing, the New York company said it would convert all of its roughly 21 million Class B shares into Class A shares. All holders of those shares have filed to sell them after the exchange.

Private-equity investor Mr. Green and his affiliates, which together owned about 20% of Shake Shack as of mid-August, filed to sell most of their stake.


Founder Daniel Meyer, chief executive of Union Square Hospitality Group—which includes Union Square Cafe and Gramercy Tavern—will whittle his stake to about 30,000 shares, according to the filing.


Shake Shack Shuffle: Danny Meyer, Leonard Green Among Investors Selling In Big Secondary Offering

Shake Shack Shuffle: Danny Meyer, Leonard Green Among Investors Selling In Big Secondary Offering

Shake Shack said on Thursday that as many as 26 million shares could be up for sale in a secondary offering.

The burger chain won’t receive any of the proceeds from the offering, but it will give some key existing investors the chance to sell ahead of Shake Shack’s one-year anniversary as a public company.

The lion’s share of the offering is coming from the conversion of all its Class B shares into Class A shares, which allows its owners to cash out. Shareholders will also be able to sell a small number of restricted Class A shares.


Among the key investors who could take their profits off the table is the company’s biggest shareholder, private equity firm Leonard Green Partners. It could sell its five million shares, according to the filing. Key investor SEG Partners could also part ways with its nearly two million shares.

Founder and restaurateur Danny Meyer could also cash out on his investment of over one million shares through the offering.


According to a Shake Shack spokesperson, while the offering enables key investors to convert and sell their entire stakes, that doesn’t mean they intend to.
Old 10-08-2015, 11:54 AM
  #38  
Moderator
Thread Starter
 
Mizouse's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2004
Location: Not Las Vegas (SF Bay Area)
Age: 39
Posts: 63,169
Received 2,773 Likes on 1,976 Posts
I will say thou, i did enjoy their burger when I was in Vegass.
Old 10-16-2015, 11:58 AM
  #39  
Moderator
Thread Starter
 
Mizouse's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2004
Location: Not Las Vegas (SF Bay Area)
Age: 39
Posts: 63,169
Received 2,773 Likes on 1,976 Posts


+2.38 5.61%
Old 11-05-2015, 02:17 PM
  #40  
_
 
AZuser's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2006
Posts: 18,692
Received 3,097 Likes on 1,867 Posts
Q3 2015 analyst expectations
* EPS: 7 cents
* Revenue: $47.3 million
* Comps: 9.6%

Options pricing suggest a 9% move. Up? Down?

Last edited by AZuser; 11-05-2015 at 02:20 PM.

Quick Reply: Shake Shack IPO



All times are GMT -5. The time now is 03:07 AM.